The Dirty Independence Question

[russycarps]

Well I havent read this thread for a while but my current thinking is I cannot see any other result than a win for the nationalists, as three big arguments (imo) from 2014 are now fundamentally compromised.

1. Only staying in the uk can keep you in the eu...no need to comment on this further!
2. You can't leave a union with your biggest market without becoming poorer...still true, but not a message that can be delivered with any real credibility by any Westminster politician, given that the UK govt is doing just that and claiming it's a fantastic opportunity.
3. We have a shared identity and are better off as brits. The brexit referendum has shown that not to be true and the subsequent moves towards an english nationalist tory party will only further highlight this divide.

I would imagine that the nationalists will have learnt from the brexit referendum too - they won't make the mistake of campaigning without an answer on currency again. They can just pick any option, it's irrelevant whether it makes economic sense or not - just repeat long and hard that it will be better without giving too many concrete details away, you can always work out what to do afterwards. In this era of fake news and not believing experts, if the snp have any brains they can easily blag this I reckon.

Ruth davidson will be the only remotely credible figure fighting for the union. A tory!.

But really it boils down to the fact that there is so much uncertainty surrounding brexit, why wouldnt you vote for the uncertainty of scottish independence? Both results lead to a much poorer, weaker outcome. It's a choice between a shit sandwich and a turd on toast. So I imagine a lot of people will just think "fuck it".

There's also short and medium trouble ahead in northern ireland. This is not an area of expertise for me I must confess, but the elections have resulted in the unionists losing their majority. Sinn fein could well be power-sharing in northern ireland and part of a governing coalition in the Republic (if there's an election next year as seems likely) at the time discussions are being held about the brexit border between the north and the south, giving them a unique position on both sides of the table. If a hard border becomes a reality, it wouldn't be totally out of the question to see calls for a referendum on a united Ireland there start to grow. I suppose we'll have to make a dirty indy vol. 2 thread if that happens

Far from bringing back the glory days of the british empire, the brexiteers may well have destroyed the last vestiges of it. It would be hilarious if the consequences werent so dire for everyone.

I see doom and gloom everywhere. And obviously it will be the poor who suffer the most. Sadly it will be the poor in scotland who will suffer most of all, but hey, they'll have their country back. Make Scotland Great Again!

 

 

 

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, russycarps said:

 

Well I havent read this thread for a while but my current thinking is I cannot see any other result than a win for the nationalists, as three big arguments (imo) from 2014 are now fundamentally compromised.

 

Hmmmm.

There's still the same fatal flaws with the indy offering, but without any bullshit to offer (oil money) as pretence for something not really that bad. 

So unlike in 2014, it's now going to be clear as day that a vote for ind6y is to vote Scotland poorer.

I'm looking forwards to seeing what the SNP present for how they'll handle having £9Bn a year less to spend - that's more than the total cost of Scotland's NHS, just to give some perspective on it.

And it gets worse. It's impossible to suggest that from an economic point of view it's better to keep tied with a sector of 15% of exports and which grew just 7% in 15 years in preference to one of 65% that grew by 179% in 15 years.

Currency: there's still total non-acceptance of wanting to use the Euro, yet commitment to joining the Eurozone is an absolute for new EU members. And snippers love to point at Sweden and say "we can avoid it like they can", but that ignore the different EU membership terms Sweden has, and it makes it impossible to present iScotland as a nation committed to 'the EU project'.

Oh, and then there's the SNP's 2014 white paper, which lays out in full that Scotland is no more warn to 'the EU project' than the country which has just voted itself out of the EU. I think scotland are in for a shock about the 'warm welcome' they claim they'll get from the EU.

Particularlty when if the snippers are believed, iScotland plans to tell the EU to fuck off with their deficit rules, cos Gloroious scotland doesn't have to worry about small minded things like balancing the books.

And finally ... nothing of brexit has moved public opinion in Scotland in favour of indy, even before the SNP try to make the impossible into a believable campaign.

 

 

 

[LJS]

40 minutes ago, russycarps said:

Well I havent read this thread for a while but my current thinking is I cannot see any other result than a win for the nationalists, as three big arguments (imo) from 2014 are now fundamentally compromised.

1. Only staying in the uk can keep you in the eu...no need to comment on this further!
2. You can't leave a union with your biggest market without becoming poorer...still true, but not a message that can be delivered with any real credibility by any Westminster politician, given that the UK govt is doing just that and claiming it's a fantastic opportunity.
3. We have a shared identity and are better off as brits. The brexit referendum has shown that not to be true and the subsequent moves towards an english nationalist tory party will only further highlight this divide.

I would imagine that the nationalists will have learnt from the brexit referendum too - they won't make the mistake of campaigning without an answer on currency again. They can just pick any option, it's irrelevant whether it makes economic sense or not - just repeat long and hard that it will be better without giving too many concrete details away, you can always work out what to do afterwards. In this era of fake news and not believing experts, if the snp have any brains they can easily blag this I reckon.

Ruth davidson will be the only remotely credible figure fighting for the union. A tory!.

But really it boils down to the fact that there is so much uncertainty surrounding brexit, why wouldnt you vote for the uncertainty of scottish independence? Both results lead to a much poorer, weaker outcome. It's a choice between a shit sandwich and a turd on toast. So I imagine a lot of people will just think "fuck it".

There's also short and medium trouble ahead in northern ireland. This is not an area of expertise for me I must confess, but the elections have resulted in the unionists losing their majority. Sinn fein could well be power-sharing in northern ireland and part of a governing coalition in the Republic (if there's an election next year as seems likely) at the time discussions are being held about the brexit border between the north and the south, giving them a unique position on both sides of the table. If a hard border becomes a reality, it wouldn't be totally out of the question to see calls for a referendum on a united Ireland there start to grow. I suppose we'll have to make a dirty indy vol. 2 thread if that happens

Far from bringing back the glory days of the british empire, the brexiteers may well have destroyed the last vestiges of it. It would be hilarious if the consequences werent so dire for everyone.

I see doom and gloom everywhere. And obviously it will be the poor who suffer the most. Sadly it will be the poor in scotland who will suffer most of all, but hey, they'll have their country back. Make Scotland Great Again!

 

 

 

Very interesting, Russy. I think you are right in the sense that it's a different ballgame from 2014.

And I think you highlight one of the main problems for the pro-UK side: lack of obvious leadership. Ruth is very competent and media-friendly but she's still a Tory and, in spite of their revival, feasting off the corpse of Scottish Labour, the Tories are still a toxic brand up here.

The all sunshine and blue skies campaign of last time will need to be replaced with something a bit grittier.

Could be interesting.

[russycarps]

45 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Hmmmm.

There's still the same fatal flaws with the indy offering, but without any bullshit to offer (oil money) as pretence for something not really that bad. 

So unlike in 2014, it's now going to be clear as day that a vote for ind6y is to vote Scotland poorer.

I'm looking forwards to seeing what the SNP present for how they'll handle having £9Bn a year less to spend - that's more than the total cost of Scotland's NHS, just to give some perspective on it.

And it gets worse. It's impossible to suggest that from an economic point of view it's better to keep tied with a sector of 15% of exports and which grew just 7% in 15 years in preference to one of 65% that grew by 179% in 15 years.

Currency: there's still total non-acceptance of wanting to use the Euro, yet commitment to joining the Eurozone is an absolute for new EU members. And snippers love to point at Sweden and say "we can avoid it like they can", but that ignore the different EU membership terms Sweden has, and it makes it impossible to present iScotland as a nation committed to 'the EU project'.

Oh, and then there's the SNP's 2014 white paper, which lays out in full that Scotland is no more warn to 'the EU project' than the country which has just voted itself out of the EU. I think scotland are in for a shock about the 'warm welcome' they claim they'll get from the EU.

Particularlty when if the snippers are believed, iScotland plans to tell the EU to fuck off with their deficit rules, cos Gloroious scotland doesn't have to worry about small minded things like balancing the books.

And finally ... nothing of brexit has moved public opinion in Scotland in favour of indy, even before the SNP try to make the impossible into a believable campaign.

 

 

 

I agree with you. The economic case for independence is farcical. But if brexit proved one thing it's that people dont understand/dont care about economics. I expect to see a lot more outright lies in any future campaign. Brexit and trump proved it's a viable tactic. I am sure the snp will say and do whatever it takes.

Hopefully the average scot is more savvy than the average english/welsh person...but I wont hold my breath on that.

 

[eFestivals]

22 minutes ago, LJS said:

And I think you highlight one of the main problems for the pro-UK side: lack of obvious leadership.

while you keep on attempting to brush under the carpet the much bigger problem on your side - the lack of money with which to deliver the better Scotland you believe you can have.

The *only* REAL win for indy can only come from the honest sell of 'vote indy, vote yourself poorer'. Anything else guarantees that it will all turn to shit as soon as the indy supporters realise that been conned by a lie.

Edited March 10, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, russycarps said:

But if brexit proved one thing it's that people dont understand/dont care about economics.

Hmmm.

The ones currently screaming the loudest about how fucking stupid it is to choose to decimate your economy are the very same people who are suggesting it's a great idea for Scotland to do that.

 

[LJS]

On 3/10/2017 at 10:15 AM, eFestivals said:

Hmmm.

The ones currently screaming the loudest about how fucking stupid it is to choose to decimate your economy are the very same people who are suggesting it's a great idea for Scotland to do that.

 

On a side note, you will be glad to know that for a couple of hours today you will be correct, as I shall be fiercely anti-English.

After that your normal position of having no idea what you are talking about will be resumed.

[eFestivals]

20 hours ago, LJS said:

On a side note, you will be glad to know that for a couple of hours today you will be correct, as I shall be fiercely anti-English.

After that your normal position of having no idea what you are talking about will be resumed.

claiming to be anti-english or not, you always lose.

 

[LJS]

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

claiming to be anti-english or not, you always lose.

 

sadly true - yesterday at least - it looked like our best chance for years to winthe  "2 Nations, 3 Regions and a Nation with a Region stuck on to it" Championship.

Hopefully we'll get that up to 3 Nations soon!

 

 

[zahidf]

 

 

[eFestivals]

16 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

because ... because ... tories.

And not because she can make a decent case for an independent Scotland.

Let's see how she does when she tries.

Currency, deficit, and EU are the big questions, where she'll bullshit like mad with the answers she gives.

[eFestivals]

PS: not forgetting, of course, that the Greens will be breaking their manifesto pledges if they back Sturgeon's call for a ref.

Cue a snipper to come in and argue that they're not, via an interpretation of those manifesto words that those words don't actually have.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

and EU are the big questions

the SNP are going to hang their hat on the words of someone (I forget who), who claims to know that the EU will sort Scotland out a special 'parking' deal, and told a Holyrood committee that.

But what they'll 'forget' to mention is that she said they could get that deal if they voted indy in summer 2017, and that it wouldn't be there for a summer 2018 vote.

Get ready for endless bullshit and diversion from the facts, proper Trump styleee. 

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the SNP are going to hang their hat on the words of someone (I forget who), who claims to know that the EU will sort Scotland out a special 'parking' deal, and told a Holyrood committee that.

But what they'll 'forget' to mention is that she said they could get that deal if they voted indy in summer 2017, and that it wouldn't be there for a summer 2018 vote.

Get ready for endless bullshit and diversion from the facts, proper Trump styleee. 

Maybe, or Scottish people are so pissed of over hard brexit and the fact the Torys will win in 2020 that they want away asap. 

 

How can support hard brexit and scotland to remain in the UK with a straight face?

[russycarps]

24 months of people bitterly arguing with their friends and family again up there. I feel sorry for the poor bastards  

 

 

[eFestivals]

and the bullshit started in that speech....

Indeed, the Prime Minister herself has been clear that the Brexit process will see the UK government reserve for itself powers in areas that are currently wholly devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

because Scotland already has control of stuff that's handled by the EU that will return to Westminster?

Nope, it's not - else it would already be handled by Scotland, but it isn't.

it is more important than ever to have a clear plan for the way ahead

C';mon then, let's see the plans for currency, deficit and the EU.

If it's so important to have clear plans, why haven't you already given those clear plans??

The language of partnership has gone, completely.

says the woman who refuses the partnership her country voted to have.

if Scotland can be ignored

like when there's a referendum vote result that someone in scotland doesn't like....?

 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Maybe, or Scottish people are so pissed of over hard brexit and the fact the Torys will win in 2020 that they want away asap. 

there's nowt to indicate that's the case.

Fewer scots voted for remain than voted for indy.

 

Quote

How can support hard brexit and scotland to remain in the UK with a straight face?

because an independent Scotland will be much more fucked up than the UK outside of the EU will be....?

Because 'hard brexit' will impact onto 15% of very-slowing growing Scottish exports, while indy will impact onto 65% of rapidly-growing Scottish exports?

What is about the loss of a free gift for Scotland of 9Bn each and every year - more than cost of the Scottish NHS - that you don't think will economically decimate Scotland?

Edited March 13, 2017 by eFestivals

[gary1979666]

12 minutes ago, zahidf said:

How can support hard brexit and scotland to remain in the UK with a straight face?

Probably in the same way Snippers support independence and remaining in the EU.

[lost]

 

[gary1979666]

1 minute ago, lost said:

 

The timing surely dictates this anyway, doesn't it.  If the UK leaves 2 years from *now*ish, and the Scindy rec isn't until late 18/early 19 - then there's no way they could stay in by default.  Given the rocky road the UK will have post proper Brexit, then the state of the Scots economic situation will be worse that it is now, so the EU would be pretty foolish to be stood with open arms.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, lost said:

 

PMSL - tho it's not anything we didn't know already, and it's something the Scottish Govt are quite happy to lie about (as they did in 2014, and despite having an official letter from the EU about it).

The last three new EU members took 7+ years to join ... tho none of them had a whopping deficit that was against EU rules, and all of them had an established currency.

Denmark thinks it needs 50Bn Euros in reserve to support its currency. Scotland will get around 11Bn as it's share of in UK currency reserves.

 

[lost]

3 minutes ago, gary1979666 said:

The timing surely dictates this anyway, doesn't it.  If the UK leaves 2 years from *now*ish, and the Scindy rec isn't until late 18/early 19 - then there's no way they could stay in by default.  Given the rocky road the UK will have post proper Brexit, then the state of the Scots economic situation will be worse that it is now, so the EU would be pretty foolish to be stood with open arms.

Yes though I believe the SNP have been hinting the Autumn 2018 date would allow Scotland to be indy and stay when the remainder of the UK leaves in 2019.

Now the Eu have confirmed they can't do it I don't think there is any argument to have the ref before the Scottish people know what the deal on the table with the EU will be after brexit.

[LJS]

Nice to see project fear 2 up and running on here.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, gary1979666 said:

then there's no way they could stay in by default.

they couldn't anyway.

There's about 35 chapters that have to be complied with in order to be eligible for membership.

Scotland meets about 10 of them.

Meeting the terms of most of the others is fairly simple, tho the EU will require that they operate for a number of years to prove themselves as always-compliant with EU terms.

The nasty nasty NASTY ones are:-

1 deficit. EU rules say 3% at max, and Scotland's is 10%. There's absolutely no way the EU will give iScotland a free pass about this rule given the Greece & Italy (and others) problems of the moment.

2. currency. The EU will require at least 5 years of operation of a sovereign Scottish currency & central bank, while also wanting an absolutely-unbreakable commitment to join the Euro (while the snippers who want to believe themselves perfect europeans reckon they can mug the EU about that one :lol:)

3. opt-outs. In the 2014 indyref the SNP showed how euro-skeptic they are by detailing all the wonderful opt-outs Scotland would get, more than *ANY* current member gets. Aside from the fact this exposed that Scotland are NOT the sort of 'committed Europeans' that the EU wants as members (and are in fact as skeptical as the UK), it's also been told to a Holyrood committee by the same woman (see above) that there will be none available for Scotland.

C'mon Nicola, you said you have a plan. Let's see the plan!

Without a plan it's still all the same bluff-guff.

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, lost said:

Yes though I believe the SNP have been hinting the Autumn 2018 date would allow Scotland to be indy and stay when the remainder of the UK leaves in 2019.

repeated in Sturgeon's speech this morning.