The Dirty Independence Question

[Superunknown]

 

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

'If', you mean. 

If leaving your biggest market is a bad thing with brexit, then it's sure as hell as much worse thing with Scottish indy.

And for Ireland it needs both of NI and the republic to vote for it, and while people in the republic are in-principle very keen, there's a big distance between that principle and what might happen with the reality.

For instance, it would have RoI taxpayers paying about £2000 extra in tax each year - or the Northern Ireland population losing around £2000 each in govt spending. Neither side of the border will eat those up consequences easily.

I've read this thread, I know where you stand on it and I know where I stand it. We're not going to agree so probably best to just leave it there. Merely wishing the Scots on here well for their upcoming independence battle. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by Superunknown

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

I've read this thread, I know where you stand on it and I know where I stand it. We're not going to agree so probably best to just leave it there. 

What I put forwards to you wasn't anything to do with my personal opinion of indy (of which you're very wrong, btw).

I simply referenced some important facts of the consequences of what you said - that RoI taxpayers would have to pay massively more tax or NI residents would be impoverished, and that (if the UK brexits) iScotland's economy would go to shit.

4 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Merely wishing the Scots on here well for their upcoming independence battle. 

a battle that indy's biggest proponents keep on bottling.

There's a reason why.

Edited January 17, 2019 by eFestivals

[feral chile]

Wasn't sure where to put this:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17430795.revealed-question-time-secretly-edited-snp-answer-to-unionist-plant/?ref=fbshr

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, feral chile said:

Wasn't sure where to put this:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17430795.revealed-question-time-secretly-edited-snp-answer-to-unionist-plant/?ref=fbshr

There appears to be some rather dodgy goings on at QT (such as how often that UKIP matey gets on), but I'm not sure the editing of her answer is one of them.

As that article say itself...

Court restrictions around the [Salmond] live case ensured that the BBC would be unable to broadcast the footage, and therefore most of Hyslop’s response to him.

It then raises the question...

But producers will now be facing urgent questions over why they then made the decision to broadcast his initial anti-independence rant without a proper right of reply, rather than just axing the entire exchange with Mitchell.

However, there's a few quite-reasonable answers to this....

1. she did get a right of reply, even if a truncated one. The short answer that was broadcast was quite substantive in itself (via mention of the substantive white paper).

2. the panel don't get an endless amount of time as standard to address any questions. It's quite normal for the chair to cut them off at a point they feel it's been dealt with adequately, and it it's reasonable to think his question was adequately addressed with reference to the white paper.

3. the programme is designed to be done 'as live', and is recorded to the length to fit its timeslot. If they'd cut out all of matey's rant they would probably have been a lot short of that timeslot (a minute or more), so for simple practical broadcast-time reasons they edited out the least they could.

But hey, it's reported in the Nat and its staple is supposed slurs on Scotland.  

[LJS]

1 hour ago, feral chile said:

Wasn't sure where to put this:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17430795.revealed-question-time-secretly-edited-snp-answer-to-unionist-plant/?ref=fbshr

Aye  there's been a bit of a stooshie up here about failed Ukip candidate & orangeman Billy Mitchell appearing, not only to have a season ticket to Scottish editions of question time, but also, a guaranteed speaking part every time he appears.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/bbc-probe-former-coatbridge-ukip-13987763

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbc-invited-me-because-it-lacks-rightwing-voices-v3l2j6w09

https://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/17433091.bbc-question-time-who-is-ex-coatbridge-ukip-candidate-billy-mitchell-and-why-is-the-show-under-fire/

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17422991.mark-smith-the-question-time-row-raises-profound-questions-for-the-bbc-but-it-raises-one-big-question-for-all-of-us/

For some reason the one news outlet not reporting on these concerns is the bbc. Funny that, since they are so unbiased!

[LJS]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

There appears to be some rather dodgy goings on at QT (such as how often that UKIP matey gets on), but I'm not sure the editing of her answer is one of them.

As that article say itself...

 

 

It then raises the question...

 

 

However, there's a few quite-reasonable answers to this....

1. she did get a right of reply, even if a truncated one. The short answer that was broadcast was quite substantive in itself (via mention of the substantive white paper).

2. the panel don't get an endless amount of time as standard to address any questions. It's quite normal for the chair to cut them off at a point they feel it's been dealt with adequately, and it it's reasonable to think his question was adequately addressed with reference to the white paper.

3. the programme is designed to be done 'as live', and is recorded to the length to fit its timeslot. If they'd cut out all of matey's rant they would probably have been a lot short of that timeslot (a minute or more), so for simple practical broadcast-time reasons they edited out the least they could.

But hey, it's reported in the Nat and its staple is supposed slurs on Scotland.  

Reported far beyond the Nat.

But not on the beeb.

See above.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, LJS said:

Reported far beyond the Nat.

But not on the beeb.

See above.

for the QT editing, perhaps because it's a non-story for the reasons I gave above?

The Billy Mitchell thing is very suspicious, tho it could be as simple as him learnt how to game the system.

[eFestivals]

I see the SNP are finally growing up a bit.  

They have (or are about to) accept the need for a sovereign Scottish currency.

It was always a no-brainer of course, but previously they preferred to try and hoodwink the people of Scottish with bollocks, to avoid getting into the "Scotland will be poorer" stuff which is inevitably attached to a change of currency. They'll still have to face -up to the "Scotland will be poorer" part but at least it's another big whopping lie that's been dropped in favour of reality.

(but laughably, in going for a currency they've had to bin the only-recent big game-changing wotsit that wasn't a game changing wotsit at all but another of those SNP crocks of shite)

Edited March 4, 2019 by eFestivals

[LJS]

On 3/4/2019 at 8:00 AM, eFestivals said:

I see the SNP are finally growing up a bit.  

They have (or are about to) accept the need for a sovereign Scottish currency.

It was always a no-brainer of course, but previously they preferred to try and hoodwink the people of Scottish with bollocks, to avoid getting into the "Scotland will be poorer" stuff which is inevitably attached to a change of currency. They'll still have to face -up to the "Scotland will be poorer" part but at least it's another big whopping lie that's been dropped in favour of reality.

(but laughably, in going for a currency they've had to bin the only-recent big game-changing wotsit that wasn't a game changing wotsit at all but another of those SNP crocks of shite)

Quite a sensible post* ...until the last paragraph which just appears to be a random assembly of words.

 

*this does not imply that I agree with every single word of it.

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, LJS said:

Quite a sensible post*

while it suits you to believe I'm against indy, I'm not. I just don't think it should be won on a lie in much the same way as brexit has been.

If the Scottish people are really for it - warts and all - then I'm happy for them to have it.

(that's a different thing to thinking it's a smart idea, just to be clear  )

 

Quote

...until the last paragraph which just appears to be a random assembly of words.

it's a pisstake of the last review of indy stuff including currency which was supposed to be an indy game-changer but which lasted about 5 minutes before it hit the bin. 

But anyway, it was right that hit the bin. I really do think a sovereign currency is the only way to go - given that a CU with the pound is exceedingly unlikely and that EU membership for Scotland is likely to be on the cards (as a sovereign currency is an absolute requirement for EU entry).

Edited March 5, 2019 by eFestivals

[LJS]

If anyone is interested, there is a three part documentary on the 2014 referendum, on the new BBC Scotland channel. First part was last night & it is available on the aye player...

Yes/No: Inside the Indyref , Series 1: 1. The Fight for a Question: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00032q1 via @bbciplayer

For what it's worth  I thought it was OK, and pretty balanced.

 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, LJS said:

For what it's worth  I thought it was OK, and pretty balanced.

while I don't doubt your intentions with that statement, you've managed to show for years that you don't do balanced when it comes to the indy question. It's free passes all the way.

Edited March 6, 2019 by eFestivals

[LJS]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

while I don't doubt your intentions with that statement, you've managed to show for years that you don't do balanced when it comes to the indy question. It's free passes all the way.

Sigh... sadly we can't all be a paragon of objectivity like wot you are, Neil.

 

In fairness last night's was the easy episode dealing with the rise of the SNP,  the negotiations around timing & question of the referendum and the setting up of the 2 campaigns. Hence it doesn't appear to have greatly upset any but the craziest crazies on either side of the debate.

We didn't get into issues like Currency, Europe, Pensions & Oil. (or eggs) The way these are covered will be a difficult balancing act & I look forward to seeing how they do it. I believe we also have an interview with your favourite local cleric to look forward to next week. 

 

As an aside the new BBC Scotland channel has had a pretty decent start - their answer to Question Time last week was streets ahead of the pantomime that QT has become.

Edited March 6, 2019 by LJS

[kaosmark2]

Just going to revive this thread as this comment comes out:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50036176

[eFestivals]

25 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Just going to revive this thread as this comment comes out:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50036176

after happily bouncing 'now' down the road for a few years, 'now' has suddenly become very important again. It's got nothing to do with Johnson in Downing Street of course, or the worry that he won't be there for too long.

Having to wangle indy on current politics only shows the weakness in support for indy in Scotland. The SNP might think they can get a majority but they know it won't hold.

The polling's looking better at the mo tho, but I'm taking it more as a perfect world wish than something that will hold at those levels. At the end of the day on an economic basis indy is as daft - and more damaging - than brexit.

Plus that Scotland's deficit is bad again, and the issue of currency will raise its head (and i'm always amused how otherwise-keen EU supporters lie about the EU's Euro rules by saying "Sweden hasn't had to join").

I'm struggling to see any UK govt endorsing another indyref before 2024 at earliest - 10 years from the last vote - and ultimately I think Sturgeon is more interested in looking like she's trying to have one now than really wanting one now.

[kaosmark2]

The thing is, for all the fact I think Scottish Independence is a stupid idea, I do understand the argument that Brexit is a sufficient material change to revisit the question.

Of course, the fact of how tough Brexit has shown itself to be should, in my view, put people off, but you can never really be sure how people react.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

The thing is, for all the fact I think Scottish Independence is a stupid idea, I do understand the argument that Brexit is a sufficient material change to revisit the question.

i don't disagree too much about that, and yet a lot of bollocks has been spoken to push that idea. The SNP themselves raised brexit as a risk at the last vote.

7 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Of course, the fact of how tough Brexit has shown itself to be should, in my view, put people off, but you can never really be sure how people react.

yup. Scotland is just as capable of voting stupid as anywhere else.

[LJS]

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

Plus that Scotland's deficit is bad again, and the issue of currency will raise its head (and i'm always amused how otherwise-keen EU supporters lie about the EU's Euro rules by saying "Sweden hasn't had to join").

 

Sorry, has Sweden joined?

 

Please explain the lie to me.

 

 

This might help you

 

https://theferret.scot/independent-scotland-join-the-euro/

 

To summarise, new members of the EU  need to commit to joining the Euro but no one actually enforces this.

 

And anyway, as Scotland is such an economic basket case, I can't imagine the EU would want us soiling their currency.

Incidentally, I personally have absolutely no objection to using the Euro. I have used it in Europe & it bought me some very good wine at very reasonable prices.

 

[LJS]

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

i don't disagree too much about that, and yet a lot of bollocks has been spoken to push that idea. The SNP themselves raised brexit as a risk at the last vote.

of course they did & they were right ... but this was the response

 

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

yup. Scotland is just as capable of voting stupid as anywhere else.

the point is we don't generally vote stupid but we get the governments of people elsewhere who do .

[LJS]

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

after happily bouncing 'now' down the road for a few years, 'now' has suddenly become very important again. It's got nothing to do with Johnson in Downing Street of course, or the worry that he won't be there for too long.

you are, of course correct, it has nothing (or very little) to do with Boris. It has everything to do with a large part of the SNP support getting pretty impatient with, what they see as, lack of action on Indy form Nicola & the SNP.

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Having to wangle indy on current politics only shows the weakness in support for indy in Scotland. The SNP might think they can get a majority but they know it won't hold.

really? I'm not sure the current levels of support for Indy will hold. But equally, I am not sure they won't.

support for Indy increased substantially during the Indyref1 campaign. That doesn't mean the same will happen next time. But equally it doesn't mean it won't. 

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

The polling's looking better at the mo tho, but I'm taking it more as a perfect world wish than something that will hold at those levels. At the end of the day on an economic basis indy is as daft - and more damaging - than brexit.

Another £1bn+ off the pretendy deficit in this year's GERS figures. I guess that's why you & chokka ignored them.

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Plus that Scotland's deficit is bad again,

Our notional onshore deficit (the one that matters cos oil is so volatile) has now been coming down consistently for 7 or 8 years .

 

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, LJS said:

Sorry, has Sweden joined?

Please explain the lie to me.

Sweden joined the EU in 1995 with EU accession rules from 1992.

Scotland would be joining in 202?+ with EU rules from 202?+.

But hey, good to hear that Scotland doesn't have any of that 'English' type of Europhobia or people making up lies about the EU. :lol:  

 

Quote

This might help you

https://theferret.scot/independent-scotland-join-the-euro/

 - love you as the highly desirable EU new member, who won't accept EU membership rules.  

Scotland might be able to play c**t as you're wanting it to, but that makes Scotland Euro-c**ty like 'England' and not a highly desirable new member.

And while Scotland might be able to avoid Euro membership - tho mostly if it's economy turns to shit after indy - it'll still have to accept itself as joining the Euro if it sells indy as having EU membership.

So the Euro-c**ty bullshit so loved by snippers doesn't manage to hide that discussion about how Scotland will be obliged by EU rules to join the Euro.

(and hey, the Euro is great anyway ... it's what'll happen before Scotland gets that far or even as far as ERM-II that'll fuck Scotland up).

 

Quote

To summarise, new members of the EU  need to commit to joining the Euro but no one actually enforces this.

Love your Euro-c**ty attitides like a good European. Are you English from Surrey? 

 

Quote

And anyway, as Scotland is such an economic basket case, I can't imagine the EU would want us soiling their currency.

Don't worry, you'll have around ten years for your lifestyle to crash before you get to Euro in a stable (but crashed) state.

 

Quote

Incidentally, I personally have absolutely no objection to using the Euro. I have used it in Europe & it bought me some very good wine at very reasonable prices.

yeah, as you demonstrated by going the standard snipper euro-c**ty.  

Edited October 17, 2019 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, LJS said:

this was the response

no, this was the response: 55% no.

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, LJS said:

you are, of course correct, it has nothing (or very little) to do with Boris.

I guess you've missed Nicola's recent speeches...?  

 

Quote

Our notional onshore deficit (the one that matters cos oil is so volatile) has now been coming down consistently since there's been a tory govt cutting Scottish spending that you and the SNP object to.

corrected for you.

2019: 8.5%

When do you think you're joining the EU?  

Edited October 17, 2019 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, LJS said:

This might help you

https://theferret.scot/independent-scotland-join-the-euro/

from that article, which might help you....

To participate in the currency, member states are meant to meet strict criteria, such as a budget deficit of less than 3% of their GDP, a debt ratio of less than 60% of GDP

These are known as the 'Copenhagen criteria', written as...

Membership requires that candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. Membership presupposes the candidate's ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

So I'm looking forwards to you supporting SNP austerity so iScotland has it's glorious EU future.  

Trying to sell "iScotland in the EU" when there's currently not a chance of it happening is going to be hard hard sell.

[LJS]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

from that article, which might help you....

 

 

These are known as the 'Copenhagen criteria', written as...

 

 

So I'm looking forwards to you supporting SNP austerity so iScotland has it's glorious EU future.  

Trying to sell "iScotland in the EU" when there's currently not a chance of it happening is going to be hard hard sell.

OK Neil, which is it?

a: An independent Scotland will be welcomed into the EU but forced to adopt the Euro.

Or

b: An independent Scotland has no chance of being admitted to the EU.

Take your pick. You can't have it both ways.