The Dirty Independence Question

[mcshed]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

 

 

 

 

These are starting to be the sort of numbers than have some more legitimacy for this kind of massive constitutional change.

I still think it's madness but it's heading towards legitimate madness rather than  feeling like being dragged into on a whim.

If it happens there will be tough decisions to be made and the time to start the discussions is now. We cannot sleepwalk into a Brexit-esque disaster we need to plan and we need to debate.

[eFestivals]

52 minutes ago, mcshed said:

dragged into on a whim.

but it is that all the same.

It's about saying brexit bad while wanting even worse for Scotland.

It's about the temporary of Spaffer in Downing Street and the temporary of Sturgeon in Bute House.

It's about obfuscating just like Vote Leave about the challenges of indy and promising everything to everyone.

Can the SNP win with an honest debate? I still doubt it. I even doubt that the SNP will commit to re-joining the EU.

Edited October 15, 2020 by eFestivals

[mcshed]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

but it is that all the same.

It's about saying brexit bad while wanting even worse for Scotland.

It's about the temporary of Spaffer in Downing Street and the temporary of Sturgeon in Bute House.

It's about obfuscating just like Vote Leave about the challenges of indy and promising everything to everyone.

Can the SNP win with an honest debate? I still doubt it. I even doubt that the SNP will commit to re-joining the EU.

I'm not saying I agree with it, I'm saying that in a democracy if the overwhelming majority want something however stupid it may be then that's the direction we are headed. 

More importantly I'm saying this undertaking will be hard and there will be losers and we need to have a clear idea what the options really are and which of them we prefer. That conversation should start now and should not be left just to Nationalists.

Europe, what hoops would have to be jumped through to become a full EU member and how would membership effect the border with rUK? 

What EFTA or other options are available?

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I'm not saying I agree with it, I'm saying that in a democracy if the overwhelming majority want something however stupid it may be then that's the direction we are headed. 

yep, the public can vote stupid as demonstrated by brexit.

As just an interested outsider, I'll be happier for Scotland to vote indy with a bigger margin of victory than a tiny one. For such a big change it's much better if there's a strong majority for that change, and the vast majority of indyrefs tend to have a very strong majority.

As for it's inevitability, I'm far from sure it's that (tho it does look more likely). It's easy to have strong support when everyone is imagining their own version of how indy will be for Scotland, and I think an amount of uncertainties will surface within a campaign.

7 minutes ago, mcshed said:

More importantly I'm saying this undertaking will be hard and there will be losers and we need to have a clear idea what the options really are and which of them we prefer. That conversation should start now and should not be left just to Nationalists.

Europe, what hoops would have to be jumped through to become a full EU member and how would membership effect the border with rUK? 

What EFTA or other options are available?

yep, I agree. Indy should be won on an honest basis, and not by pretending to be everything to everyone in the style of Vote Leave and then shafting a big proportion afterwards.

A big issue to be addressed is currency, and there's no painless answer in any of the possible choices.

[mcshed]

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

As for it's inevitability, I'm far from sure it's that (tho it does look more likely). It's easy to have strong support when everyone is imagining their own version of how indy will be for Scotland, and I think an amount of uncertainties will surface within a campaign.

I don't think it's inevitable but it's certainly getting more likely.

[viberunner]

e're already at nearly 60% support Indy and that's before the disaster of Brexit.

Its true the Ref2 will being up uncertainties. Brexit did too and won. And Brexit was based on having a pretty darned good economic position in the EU and choosing to give it up for nothing. Indy2 will be based on us being in an unmitigated disaster and the uncertainty will be "how do we get out of this and back into the EU?". And it's true that will be challenging, as will many of the details. But what's certain is a UK Brexit status-quo will be worse than all the alternatives.

edit: BAH TYPOS. 5.30 am posting!

 

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by viberunner

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, viberunner said:

Indy2 will be based on us being in an unmitigated disaster

to which you'd like to add on top the extra unmitigated disaster of indy.

Indy doesn't improve on the bad economics of brexit, it repeats it, and on top.

If putting up barriers to 15% of Scotland's international trade is a bad thing, please tell me how adding the same barriers to a further 65% of of Scotland's international trade makes things better....?

[mcshed]

36 minutes ago, viberunner said:

e're already at nearly 60% support Indy and that's before the disaster of Brexit.

Its true the Ref2 will being up uncertainties. Brexit did too and won. And Brexit was based on having a pretty darned good economic position in the EU and choosing to give it up for nothing. Indy2 will be based on us being in an unmitigated disaster and the uncertainty will be "how do we get out of this and back into the EU?". And it's true that will be challenging, as will many of the details. But what's certain is a UK Brexit status-quo will be worse than all the alternatives.

edit: BAH TYPOS. 5.30 am posting!

 

 

I think the damage of Brexit can be overstated, it's shit and there may well be a very visible clusterfuck in January but beyond that it will just be background noise. I'm also not convinced that being an EU member will help, much more of our business is done with rUK than the EU and EU membership would mean some kind of border with England, or to maintain a frictionless UK we'd need to commit to custom checks on incoming EU goods in a sort of reverse of Northern Ireland.

Before we trash our close links to our largest market what guarantees are there that we would be successful in rejoining the EU? We certainly don't meet the criteria set out but I do see as a former member we are a unique case. What would the terms of that membership be? We certainly wouldn't get our part of the UK rebate back, would we have to join the Euro? I'm not against using the Euro but doing so won't be straightforward. Our special case as former EU members doesn't apply to the rules around the common currency as it might with membership.

 

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, viberunner said:

Its true the Ref2 will being up uncertainties. Brexit did too and won.

Brexit won by denying the reality of those uncertainties, I think you agree that is a bad thing. I'm saying if Indy is to win it should do so honestly. I accept that there may not be definitive answers to all the questions but we should explore the options fully and honestly rather than treat them as minor details to be dealt with after the main thing has been achieved. If independence is best for Scotland then we can afford to be honest, if it isn't then we aren't well served by lying about it.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, viberunner said:

what's certain is a UK Brexit status-quo will be worse than all the alternatives.

if that's really true, I look forwards to hearing you say "austerity bigger than the tories did is what I want". 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Before we trash our close links to our largest market what guarantees are there that we would be successful in rejoining the EU? We certainly don't meet the criteria set out but I do see as a former member we are a unique case.

I don't really think there's too much of an argument about whether Scotland can join the EU, eventually. Sure, Spain or others could veto, but I doubt they would do providing Scotland went through the normal entry processes.

But you're right that it wouldn't meet the entry criteria on independence day, and meeting that criteria is likely to take a very economically tough 10+ years.

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, mcshed said:

If independence is best for Scotland then we can afford to be honest, if it isn't then we aren't well served by lying about it.

this!

The worst indy of all would be indy won by the sorts of whoppers that Salmond preferred to use, because the support for indy wouldn't last but you'd be stuck with it.

[viberunner]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Indy doesn't improve on the bad economics of brexit

It does the moment Scotland rejoins the EU. We literally won't be subject to English Brexit.

[viberunner]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Sure, Spain or others could veto, but I doubt they would do providing Scotland went through the normal entry processes.

But you're right that it wouldn't meet the entry criteria on independence day, and meeting that criteria is likely to take a very economically tough 10+ years.

Spain for their obvious domestic fascistic reasons didn't like the idea of an UK state fragmenting and the new states easily joining, but they had no such qualms about the former Yugoslav states.

It might be tough times until we get back into the EU, but at least there will be the light at the end of the tunnel. Even if your time frame is right (and I think it's a little... conservative) that's only two parliaments of full wait.

But with Brexit it's not so much a tunnel as a bottomless abyss in which to eternally plummet to ever-greater depths. No end in sight to the disaster. Not ten years. Not fifty years.

[mcshed]

2 hours ago, viberunner said:

It does the moment Scotland rejoins the EU. We literally won't be subject to English Brexit.

But we will be subject to any English economic downturn as a result of Brexit as they remain our main trading partner. Brexit is shit but is best for us, not to mention best for the rest of the UK if it isn't the total disaster you seem to wish it to be. Similarly I think that Independence risks being a disaster but if that is the path we choose I will want it to turn out well. I would be delighted if it turns out to be the social democratic wonderland that some people suggest. 

[eFestivals]

3 hours ago, viberunner said:

It does the moment Scotland rejoins the EU. 

Not it doesn't.

If it's damaging to put barriers in the way of EU trade of 15% of exports, it's even more damaging to put the exact same barriers in the way of the 65% of exports to rUK.

If Scotland got the damage on the EU trade back (which it won't) by rejoining the EU, that still leaves Scotland with damage to 50% of it's trade.

As far as damage to trade goes, brexit is the best outcome for Scotland.

[eFestivals]

PS: find what Sturgeon said earlier today about Brexit, and then change the counties around.

The argument doesn't become invalid just because of a bit of England baaaad xenophobia.

[eFestivals]

3 hours ago, viberunner said:

Spain for their obvious domestic fascistic reasons didn't like the idea of an UK state fragmenting and the new states easily joining, but they had no such qualms about the former Yugoslav states.

States that joined the EU via the standard process. A long process.

 

3 hours ago, viberunner said:

It might be tough times until we get back into the EU, but at least there will be the light at the end of the tunnel. Even if your time frame is right (and I think it's a little... conservative) that's only two parliaments of full wait.

What exactly do you think the light is?

Scotland getting used to massive permanent cuts in public spending?

The pain of meeting EU entry criteria coming to an end?

 

3 hours ago, viberunner said:

But with Brexit it's not so much a tunnel as a bottomless abyss in which to eternally plummet to ever-greater depths. No end in sight to the disaster. Not ten years. Not fifty years.

Brexit will be permanently damaging, but it still doesn't mean Indy+EU can't shovel extra shit on top.

The only possible way that Scotland can make an economic success of Indy and rejoining the EU is by becoming a tax avoidance hub.

Which is doable - if the EU hasn't shut down that opportunity before Scotland gets there.

But is the exact opposite of the lovable sharey-carey left wing Scots that Indy started off with.

[eFestivals]

 

[pink_triangle]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

 

I think Sturgeon should have chosen the honest option ahead of the dishonest option even if it was more politically challenging. For s politician who bases her reputation on being serious and honest it makes you question when she has been dishonest in the past and when she will in future.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

For s politician who bases her reputation on being serious and honest it makes you question when she has been dishonest in the past and when she will in future.

oh, c'mon, she's selling indy with more snake oil than Farage used to sell brexit - and the article below says she needs to keep it that way.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093

 

[pink_triangle]

47 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

oh, c'mon, she's selling indy with more snake oil than Farage used to sell brexit - and the article below says she needs to keep it that way.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093

 

I think she is/has been portrayed as serious and honest, not that I necessarily agree with that portrayal.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

I think she is/has been portrayed as serious and honest

well, yeah. The same people say that indy will only be glorious (same as Farage & co used to say for brexit. Whatever happened to that?).

Years ago before the 2014 indyref there used to be claims around here that Scottish politicians were different and better - exceptional, you might say. Although that's not one I've seen or heard for a while.

[Comfy Bean]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Years ago before the 2014 indyref there used to be claims around here that Scottish politicians were different and better - exceptional, you might say. Although that's not one I've seen or heard for a while.

Can you quote one of those claims please and we can take it from there. Just one.

 

[eFestivals]

5 hours ago, Comfy Bean said:

Can you quote one of those claims please and we can take it from there. Just one.

 

If you want to read thru this topic from the first post I'm sure you'll find it/them.

Will you bother? I doubt it. But you'll love a row on this irrelevant aside rather than talk about the difficult and important stuff like economics, currency and borders.

Edited October 23, 2020 by eFestivals