The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

I saw someone call the SNP "UKIP north" last night, it made me laugh a lot.

Yes, the policies are different, but all the problems of the country being the fault of those horrible outsiders is all the same.

[eFestivals]

Someone pointed out a rather worrying aspect of the constitution last night - that many of the people who might vote Scotland independent will be disenfranchised in iScotland.

Because they're not Scottish.

It's not quite such a civic nationalism after all.

[viberunner]

it's a big claim to call it "within the statistical margin of error", because there's not a jot of evidence to suggest an error.

But PR over facts and substance from the yes-ers, exactly like those Eton-attending English tories? Who'd have thought it?

It's technical thing, usually two to three percentage points of any poll. And all polls are prone to error because no poll is universal, it's a poll - an attempt at a representative cross-section.

It's a strictly mathematical thing and thus not something I expect the Vulgate to have precogitated.

[eFestivals]

It's technical thing, usually two to three percentage points of any poll. And all polls are prone to error because no poll is universal, it's a poll - an attempt at a representative cross-section.

It's a strictly mathematical thing and thus not something I expect the Vulgate to have precogitated.

It's applicable with a single poll. It becomes more meaningless the more polls there are.

Given that not a single poll has got close to going over 50%, anyone believing there's any margin of error there to take it over 50% is mugging themselves.

(and the ones that have got closest are the Panelbase polls - and anyone with half a brain knows they've been corrupted by the nats [check out their methodolgy to see how easy that's been to do]).

Of course, these polls are measuring opinion and not how the actual vote will go. How closely the actual vote matches the polls depends on the turnout for each side.

Edited June 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Finding hope in a single poll, finding hope in a single expert, and repeating half-statements endlessly in the hope that the half statement becomes true and not the full statement. All while never addressing the actual issues around these things.

That's a fair summary of the yes campaign, and if it works it's the most politically scary thing to happen in the UK in my lifetime - because it out-moron's anything from Eton, Oxford, England or Westminster. Even UKIP.

Edited June 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[viberunner]

Finding hope in a single poll, finding hope in a single expert, and repeating half-statements endlessly in the hope that the half statement becomes true and not the full statement. All while never addressing the actual issues around these things.

Speaking of endlessly reciting non-statements in the hope repetition itself lends credibility while not addressing a substantive point...

[eFestivals]

Speaking of endlessly reciting non-statements in the hope repetition itself lends credibility while not addressing a substantive point...

Ok, let's start with an easy one ....

How many people do you know that are happy to underwrite other people's debts for free?

Now... can you address that substantive point, and apply the same idea to Alex's guff?

Edited June 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Speaking of endlessly reciting non-statements in the hope repetition itself lends credibility while not addressing a substantive point...

"The English are all twats, but this isn't being racist, it's just the way those people are".

[eFestivals]

Ok, let's start with an easy one ....

How many people do you know that are happy to underwrite other people's debts for free?

Now... can you address that substantive point, and apply the same idea to Alex's guff?

Oh, and your mother doesn't count as a suitable answer. An independent Scotland doesn't have a mother.

Still waiting.....

[LJS]

haven't you noticed the bits about how people will vote in the indyref based on the presumed economic benefits?

Yes won't win because the people of Scotland want indy, they'll win because people believe they're voting themselves richer.

Which is insane.

Perhaps it's that, but that would only prove the stupidity of those believers.

Because no matter how good or not Alex is as a govt administrator*, his ability (or the abilities of those employed on behalf of yes) as an economist is no better than the best - and "the best" talk a crock of shit as the current situation gets to prove. So what Alex has promised will be bollocks.

(* BTW, that's meant as no insult. The best govts & councils are considered to be that by their smooth and uncontroversial operation.)

But it's not so much of that. As I've pointed out in the past, just about everyone thinks that their local council (no matter which party controls it) is better run than Westminster - for a start, it's not extracting huge amounts of money from them - and that's all that's going on with the SG.

It'll be regarded much like Westminster once the SG is the evil taker of taxes. It's no coincidence that even the tories now want to make the SG the evil extractor of taxes.

Nah, it's Alex's 30 years of pushing racism coming home to roost.

If that's what you think that puts you in about a minority of one in Scotland - because most seem to prefer to think that anything which disagrees with Alex is biased.

I've yet to see a single yes-er face up to the currency issue, for example. You won't do it, I've tried with you. You really want to believe that your next door neighbour is happy to pay off your mortgage - yet WFT would they?

says the man who refuses to understand the simple issues of currency.

You appear to get everything wrong.

I don't doubt that Scotland will be "successful". It'ws not going to curl up and die, or have to (as a default) pass the begging bowl around.

But nothing of that means it'll be the most successful economy in Europe, as Alex is promising. And even Alex recognises that if iScotland doesn't live up to his best hopes it's in a worse state than rUK forever.

I attacked the message (what he says about debt interest), you attack the messenger (me, who has pointed that out to you).

Now, unless you're going to tell me who is going to give iScotland an interest free loan of around £120Bn to cover its debts, perhaps you might actually consider the stupidity of what that "expert" said?

Nope, it would make you the complete opposite.

This is not a team sport of nats verus unionists, or at least it shouldn't be.

It should be an intellectual inquisition of what is being said around the issue of independence - which those cybernats - and you - refuse to indulge in.

Instead you go for the Alex angle, of dismissing any inconvenient argument without ever bothering to consider what is being argued.

Exactly as you have done here. You've said "he's an expert and therefore should be believed over you" - which is fair enough if you followed thru with further thought processes. But you don't.

If expertise wins out alone, why are you not taking on board what that very expert says: that most experts disagree with him?

If expertise doesn't win out alone, then you need to study what the man says. So please do tell me who is giving out interest free loans on £120Bn.

Either way, you've gone for propaganda and not thought. Considering how big this decision is for the rest of your life, shouldn't you be thinking??

dearie me

so much to deal with here.

I don't believe one lot of experts over another, I believe on the balance of probability the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

I also take the common sense view, that a government whose main priority is Scotland will be likely to take better decisions for Scotland which in the long run will help counteract the predictions of doom.

Debt: as you know Scotland has no debt because it doesn't exist as an independent country. There will certainly be negotiations as to what proportion of the Uk debt Scotland will pay & as you rightly point out these negotiations will include divvying up the CD's & other joint assets. Well, you guys can have our share of trident, our share of the Palace of Westminster, our share of Downing Street & Chequers, our share of Gibraltar & the Falkland Islands & whatever else is left of the British Empire, our share of all these amazing government buildings in London. etc etc

Of course whatever is agreed about debt, it will still be the UK's as the Government has acknowledged so I would imagine there will some agreement that ISco makes annual payment to rUK.

As far as currency is concerned, the likelihood is that, even although it was a decision clearly taken for campaigning reasons, my belief is the Lab/Con parties have probably backed themselves into a corner on this one so a currency union is unlikely - no big deal for me & we've discussed this to death already.

As to why people will vote yes (or no) I am sure the reasons are many and varied & depending on the question you ask you will get different answers. I am sure you & I would agree (yes you read that bit right) that some of these reasons are "better" than others. But that's life & that is democracy.

p.s i love the bit where i quote you saying "that idiot writer" & you reply with "I attacked the message " then go on to accuse me of attacking the messenger (you) ..... Brilliant!

[LJS]

Stupid enough to see that as a no conspiracy?

Not sure why I bothering as I am genuinely indifferent to what the Chinese premier thinks & i generally think the number of voters he will persuade can be counted on the fingers of one knee.

I just find it strange that he has an opinion ready on the subject.

[LJS]

If you want a guarantee of that, vote for a party that guarantees you that.

It's not the job of the horrible outsiders so detested in Scotland to set the Scottish political agenda.

If Scotland were intellectually ready for indy, these things you'd already know.

On the basis of what? Certainly not any facts or polling.

Perhaps on the basis that having that belief and telling others your belief will help deliver the indy you want via that against-the-facts belief? (this is the whole of the yes campaign in a single sentence ).

Which is very very different to the SNP's guarantee of indy, of course.

Yes, Alex had a gun held against his head.

FFS. You voted for a party which promised an indyref and only an indyref. The leader of that party happily accepted just an indyref and only an indyref.

But it's all the fault of those horrible English and Scotland is sophisticated in blaming England for Scotland's choices and Scotland's civic nationalism is going to go very well.

er, I'm not complaining for a minute that we have a yes/no referendum. I want independence & don't want the waters muddied with devo mac.

I was pointing out the political miscalculation of DC, thinking a yes/no vote was the best way to defeat the Nats, As most of us agree, he probably will but I do think he is sweating just a wee bit!!!

incidentally in spite of your claiming to know how I voted at the last Holyrood election, which is remarkable as I am not 100% certain myself. For the record I believe one of my 2 votes went to the SNP so you are half right - a pretty good result by your standards, I would say.

[LJS]

It's applicable with a single poll. It becomes more meaningless the more polls there are.

Given that not a single poll has got close to going over 50%, anyone believing there's any margin of error there to take it over 50% is mugging themselves.

(and the ones that have got closest are the Panelbase polls - and anyone with half a brain knows they've been corrupted by the nats [check out their methodolgy to see how easy that's been to do]).

Of course, these polls are measuring opinion and not how the actual vote will go. How closely the actual vote matches the polls depends on the turnout for each side.

if you read up about opinions polls, there have been a number of dodgy techniques used by a number of pollsters. Some of which have favoured the yes side & some the No side.

The overall trend over the last year or so is a narrowing of the gap although the gap is still significant.

[LJS]

Finding hope in a single poll, finding hope in a single expert, and repeating half-statements endlessly in the hope that the half statement becomes true and not the full statement. All while never addressing the actual issues around these things.

That's a fair summary of the yes campaign, and if it works it's the most politically scary thing to happen in the UK in my lifetime - because it out-moron's anything from Eton, Oxford, England or Westminster. Even UKIP.

both sides find hope in every poll - its the way they play the political game

I don't know what a half statement is or how you repeat it but if you are seriously telling me that the no side is not as guilty of this as the yes side then you don't understand politics.

One of the things that gives me a guilty pleasure in this debate is picturing you squirming as you agree with the Bullingdon boys

[LJS]

Ok, let's start with an easy one ....

How many people do you know that are happy to underwrite other people's debts for free?

Now... can you address that substantive point, and apply the same idea to Alex's guff?

I refer to my earlier answer,

We'll be happy to help you out with your debts, we don't have any ...yet

I'm sure we will have soon though

[LJS]

I really don't want to be part of this....

Ed Miliband to set out plans to cut benefits for young jobless

Labour leader sets out reforms based on training incentives as poll finds 78% of voters think welfare system unfair

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/18/labour-welfare-plan-benefits-means-testing-training-ed-miliband

Edited June 18, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

LJS, on 17 Jun 2014 - 10:20 PM, said:

If you asked me to bet on who will win the next Westminster election, I would say the conservatives,

On the basis of what? Certainly not any facts or polling.

missed this one

on the basis that the polls are pretty close just now & traditionally the opposition should be well ahead at this stage of the electoral cycle if they are to win. Of course lots of things can happen between now then & the Ukip factor & the presumed collapse in the LibDem vote may have an influence so it is far from certain.

Hopefully, after we vote yes in September, It will be of no great concern to me.

[LJS]

I saw someone call the SNP "UKIP north" last night, it made me laugh a lot.

Yes, the policies are different, but all the problems of the country being the fault of those horrible outsiders is all the same.

i read somewhere that Neil keeps repeating the same old shite over & over again

It made me laugh a lot

& proved fuck all

keep on laughing

[LJS]

Someone pointed out a rather worrying aspect of the constitution last night - that many of the people who might vote Scotland independent will be disenfranchised in iScotland.

Because they're not Scottish.

It's not quite such a civic nationalism after all.

I had a wee look on the the interthingy looking for this & could find nothing.

Knowing that you would never say anything on here that wasn't 100% true, I'd love you to share where you got this from.

If I didn't know better I'd say it was the most humongous load of bollocks since the last humungous load of bollocks you posted here.

I wait with bated breath to be proved wrong.

[eFestivals]

As far as currency is concerned, the likelihood is that, even although it was a decision clearly taken for campaigning reasons,

Oh FFS.

You know that sovereignty that you're desperate to have (but don't understand what it is )? Well guess what?

The UK is jut as desperate to retain its own, and given that the UK holds all of the cards over retaining its own sovereignty, guess what the UK is going to do?

Or are you really so stupid as to think that it's impossible for anyone to honestly disagree with lovely Alex?

Meanwhile, back in the real world, why would an independent Scotland wish to have less influence over its own future than it has now? ... cos that's where CU takes you.

And meanwhile, back in the weird world of the nats, every Westminster politician is a liar who wants to do Scotland down, while Scotland is desperate to be shackled by these people in a CU where they'll do Scotland down - and that's the best option for Scotland according to Scotland's choice of experts.

Might the truth really be that Alex is telling you guff and you're swallowing it? Because if you use your intelligence to put these Alex themes together (as i've done in the para directly above this one), where is there any sense to be found?

In Scotland, the people like to make grand statements.

Unfortunately...

In Scotland, the people don't understand what sovereign is.

(and if you need that truth spelt out to you, just read the comments in any paper about what Balls said yesterday).

p.s i love the bit where i quote you saying "that idiot writer" & you reply with "I attacked the message " then go on to accuse me of attacking the messenger (you) ..... Brilliant!

- priceless.

I called him an idiot writer, and gave a solid explanation for why - him saying that Scotland can get interest free loans for tens of billions of pounds.

And you? All you were able to say is "he's an expert, you're not". I attacked the message, you attacked only the messenger (me).

If yours is the sort of intelligent analysis that will take Scotland forwards, Scotland is truly fucked.

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[eFestivals]

Not sure why I bothering as I am genuinely indifferent to what the Chinese premier thinks & i generally think the number of voters he will persuade can be counted on the fingers of one knee.

I just find it strange that he has an opinion ready on the subject.

That's because you're no student of current or world affairs.

He was asked his opinion so he gave his opinion.

Any politician with separatist movements to deal with has an opinion on separatist movements.

Any politician who makes a state visit with no understanding of the current political issues in that visited country would be a shit politician.

It would be stupid to think otherwise.

[eFestivals]

er, I'm not complaining for a minute that we have a yes/no referendum. I want independence & don't want the waters muddied with devo mac.

I was pointing out the political miscalculation of DC

You did more than just point that out.

You care so little you invented an anti-Scottish conspiracy.

[eFestivals]

I refer to my earlier answer,

We'll be happy to help you out with your debts, we don't have any ...yet

I'm sure we will have soon though

You really do think that Scotland holds all the cards in the negotiation, don't you?

What you're forgetting is that Scotland needs to find someone to give it £20Bn before iDay - and there's only one possible source of that money.

[eFestivals]

I refer to my earlier answer,

You've never given an answer on why you think some random will underwrite your mortgage &/or debts for free. You've always ducked the question, as you've done here again.

Who will underwrite your own debts for free? Anyone (except your family)? Nope.

Then why do you think the UK will guarantee iScotland's debts for free?

[eFestivals]

on the basis that the polls are pretty close just now & traditionally the opposition should be well ahead at this stage of the electoral cycle if they are to win. Of course lots of things can happen between now then & the Ukip factor & the presumed collapse in the LibDem vote may have an influence so it is far from certain.

I see you've put as much study into this as anything else.

Check out what the Ashcroft polls say is going to happen - because, remember, the UK operates FPTP.

UK-wide polls tell nothing about the distribution of seats - in exactly the same way as at the last SG election the pollsters got the voting percentages for the parties spot-on but the distribution of seats badly wrong.