Weather

[howlin_pete]

I'm still finding more reasons to be positive than negative at the moment.

Also, to put any weather forecast into perspective, on Friday night they predicted that there would be a lot of rain this evening, when in reality it is bloody lovely. Of course, this only applies to negative forecasts, anything predicting nice weather should be taken as gospal

[howlin_pete]

Weather Online's forecast to mid June

Valid from 19/05 to 18/06 2013

Drier north

Issued: Sunday 19th May 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Weather machine plays games, but we must try to beat it!

There are times when, as a forecaster, you have to throw your hands in the air and say "I give up!". It seems that the weather machine is playing games and the forecast for a fine week that is made one day, suddenly turns to colder and more unsettled weather with the next forecast. sunshine. Often the most frustrating part of the forecast is that the large scale atmospheric patterns are correct. And that's pretty much the situation we find ourselves in now.

We are confident that high pressure is probably going to be north of the UK through the coming month, with low pressure to the south. However, the subtle changes that are taking place within this circulation pattern and the things that cause the problems.

*........25/05/13*

Indications are for a week which will be turning ever cooler and more unsettled. As northerly winds set in, it will be northern and eastern Scotland as well as eastern England that see the highest risk of showers and rain. Western parts of the country are likely to be better. However, as low pressure settled in towards the weekend things could turn more unsettled through the Midlands and southern England.

*26/05/13.......01/06/13*

Indications are still that high pressure will intensify to the north of Scotland through this week. Lower pressure is to the south of the UK, and this will be bringing a chilly week with some outbreaks of rain across more southern and eastern parts of England at times. This rain may trouble the Midlands too. Better weather through more northern and western areas, with the best sunshine for western Scotland, northwest England and western Wales. Cool for most in that wind which could be strong at times in the southeast.

*02/06/13......08/06/13*

Hints that the high slips off to the west of Scotland this week. This allows the winds to turning more into the northwest. Plenty of dry weather is likely in much of Scotland and Ireland with sunny spells, although northern Scotland could see some showers at times. The low pressure stays to the south and again it will be southern and southeastern England that is most at risk from some rain. Staying cool with the winds mainly from the east or northeast.

*09/06/13......15/06/13*

The high is expected to retreat further into the Atlantic. Probably a more westerly flow through Scotland bringing some cloud and outbreaks of rain here at times. The southern half of the UK may well be drier and brighter with sunny spells.

*16/06/13......22/06/13*

Hints of turning more unsettled over Scotland and Ireland as well as northern England this week. More southern areas should be drier with sunny spells and staying mild too. Note that confidence is low. Probably feeling milder too.

Simon & Capn Bob

[fur_q]

BBC updated their long range forecast today.

Monday 3 JuneSunday 16 June

Signs of a promosing start to summer?

Heading into the first part of June there are signs that the Azores high may build across the country from the southwest. This would allow the weather to settle, with drier than normal conditions for many areas, especially the north and west.

With temperatures around average for June, it would feel warm in any sunshine but cooler around the coasts where sea breezes develop by day.

Variable amounts of cloud are likely to drift across the country but some decent sunshine would also be expected. The south and east would be most likely to see some showers breaking out from time to time.

[Thearg]

Looking good for the first half of June http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/june-weather/330644?monyr=6/1/2013

[fur_q]

Although that ^^ forecast looks good it is a computer generated forecast, based on a single model output(AFAIK), and so not very reliable this far out. At this time it's best to stick to forecasts where an experienced meteorologist has looked at all the available data in produced an interpretation.

[kh24]

Right, I'm having some weather amnesia. Was the 2010 weather predicted before the festival? If so, how far in advance?

For the life of me I can't remember what the weather was like generally in the run-up to the festival. I vaguely remember having some decent, warm days both before and after but certainly not a long unbroken spell.

What's got me thinking is that one of the long-range forecasts says something like 'heat wave not predicted' - but not sure if this is something you can predict more than a couple of days before (my basic level of knowledge would assume we are looking at general weather patterns this far out not unusual heat waves)

Can anyone refresh my memory of the weather we had in the rest of Summer 2010?

[Trebor]

I don't think summer 2010 was that much different than the last six or so, but Glasto got lucky as there was a heatwave for a week or two around then. I think Jackone's prediction was for great weather, with the risk of storms due to the heat.

[pedmills]

In 2010 I brought my wellies but I remember being 99% certain that I wouldn't need to use them. So that means the forecast right before the festival must have been very good.

However...

it seems at this stage (and even later) rain was a real possibility:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62625-glastonbury-forecast-2010/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jun/08/uk-weather-rain-june

So I'm not going to trust anything until a week or two before the festival.

[Monkismo]

The start of July's normally pretty nice regardless of how the festival is so I'm hoping that the later start date this year means we catch the July weather. 3-4 weeks until we can start speculating properly.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Monkismo

[Mr_Grump]

I work for a rather large retailer who always monitor the weather due to the implication on distribution and sales....the team are usually very good with their analysis.

At our team briefing yesterday, the view from the experts is that the weather will get better as June progresses so I'm being positive about the end of the month.

[londonlax]

Better weather in Summer you say?

Did the experts also predict the weather might start getting colder around October?

[antbfc]

I think I would pay an extra £50-100 for guaranteed good weather, would you?

TBH it will be what it will be and we will all just make the most of whatever happens!!!

[scaryclaireyfairy]

...

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62625-glastonbury-forecast-2010/

[Midnight Man]

Right, I'm having some weather amnesia. Was the 2010 weather predicted before the festival? If so, how far in advance?

For the life of me I can't remember what the weather was like generally in the run-up to the festival. I vaguely remember having some decent, warm days both before and after but certainly not a long unbroken spell.

What's got me thinking is that one of the long-range forecasts says something like 'heat wave not predicted' - but not sure if this is something you can predict more than a couple of days before (my basic level of knowledge would assume we are looking at general weather patterns this far out not unusual heat waves)

Can anyone refresh my memory of the weather we had in the rest of Summer 2010?

[matt_berr]

Looking at Netweather long range - there are a couple of encouraging signals for early june.

1. High pressure building to the west of the UK from the Azores

2. Jest stream weakening and significantly to the north of the UK

This did not happen last summer (or 2011) when the Azores never really came into play and jetstream was much stronger and further south - as I understand it high pressure over greenland coupled with the southerly azores high funnelled the jet stream and low pressure systems over the UK.

[Mr_Grump]

Better weather in Summer you say?

Did the experts also predict the weather might start getting colder around October?

[Guest]

Looking at Netweather long range - there are a couple of encouraging signals for early june.

2. Jet stream weakening and significantly to the north of the UK

This did not happen last summer (or 2011) when the Azores never really came into play and jetstream was much stronger and further south - as I understand it high pressure over greenland coupled with the southerly azores high funnelled the jet stream and low pressure systems over the UK.

[JoeyT]

It's looking very positive at the moment.

The way things are shaping up it looks like it could be a dry spell leading up to the festival so just got to keep our fingers crossed it stays for the duration!

[Mr Splodge]

Latest jackone forecast is out. Looking good

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-2

[rumpola]

On a stick or twist basis, I will stick on that.

I have a feeling the reports are going to get more positive the closer we get too.

[Trebor]

I'm slowly becoming a little bit optimistic about the weather thanks to Jackone!

[howlin_pete]

If you look the summer thread on that forum everyone seems pretty optimistic for June so I don't see why any of us shouldn't be

[titusbungle]

Bumpety bump!

[titusbungle]

Looking dry at least according to met check

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/180days.asp?zipcode=Ba4%204by#.UaMTmxK9LCQ

[harriet]

It's GOT to get better than it has been ........... Surely? ...... Please