Football 2013-2014

[Bobs]

I've never rated Naismith. Very surprised he did the business. Contribute more than that header then?

Title race wise, I think it's Chelsea/Arsenal/City. Chelsea may have dropped 5 points already, but away to Everton and Man U aren't easy games for anyone. City have done worse with that loss against Cardiff, and I think they're more likely to have an awful run in them, but they've still got a heck of a squad. Arsenal's latest injury news puts a downer on their chances, but they're the only big team without a change in manager, and they've added a proven world-class player while the others have just added potential/depth.

Stats so far, Liverpool have grinded out 1-0 every game, but I can't see that lasting another 24 hours, let alone the rest of the season. I think they've got more chance than Spurs right now sheerly because of points in the bag and good vibes can be self-fulfilling, but to seriously consider them would be crazy IMO.

My money's still with Chelsea.

[pink_triangle]

I maintain Man U can't win the league in the first season of adjusting to life without Fergie. I think they'll drop more points against sporadic sides like us and Villa (not me saying we'll beat them btw), as without the psychological disadvantage that comes from thinking you can't have a go at them, talented teams will have a go and get something where in previous seasons they might have been a bit meeker. And while the only question over Man U's first team is the quality of their wingers and possibly CM (depending on opinion of Fellaini), Fergie was able to slip his mediocre squad players in for a run without dropping points, while I'm not convinced Moyes will be able to get the same out of the likes of Johnny Evans.

[pink_triangle]

On another Man Utd related note, Ashley Young cheating again to make up for a lack of ability at the top level. Time for retrospective red cards for diving in my opinion, a yellow card makes it worth the risk for the attacking player.

[eFestivals]

It's the wrong top 3 at the moment, and the wrong teams in positions 4 to 6.

I had a look thru the fixtures till xmas last week, and (on the basis of those top 6 doing equally well against all the teams below them) they don't half favour Liverpool. The other top-6 teams play each other sooner and will take points off each other, giving L'pool the chance to build themselves a gap. Another thing is in their favour is the lack of Euro games.

That requires L'pool to actually win games of course; a couple of losses and they'll have blown it. It'll be interesting to see how they get on tonight.

[pink_triangle]

I had a look thru the fixtures till xmas last week, and (on the basis of those top 6 doing equally well against all the teams below them) they don't half favour Liverpool. The other top-6 teams play each other sooner and will take points off each other,.

Edited September 16, 2013 by pink_triangle

[eFestivals]

Have you ever known a season where the top 6 favoured teams all did equally well against the others throughout the first half of the season? I cant.

true - and this season is sticking to that too; Chelsea losing at Everton, City dropping points at Stoke, the Arse losing to Villa. And of course Spurs losing to the Arse, and Utd losing to L'pool.

So up to this point, doing equally well - or not - against those lower teams gives Liverpool some extra leeway.

The only point I was getting at is that the fixtures favour L'pool in the short term, and gives them a great opportunity to stay at or very near the top until around mid-December. I'm not saying they'll actually manage to do that but only that things so far suggest they've got an excellent opportunity to do that.

Even if they do it means nothing for how the whole season might go, because winning the league means playing every team not just the less good ones. And I made a point of saying that a couple of losses and they've blown it.

It's more interesting at the top than it's been for a few years.

Edited September 16, 2013 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

From what I saw looking at the fixtures before the end of the year all the top 6 clubs play others 4 times apart from man city (5) and man utd (3). I honestly dont think theres a great deal of difference in the fixtures any have got.

until mid-December Liverpool only have to play Arsenal from the top-6.

All of the other top-6 teams play at least 2 of the other top-6 before then, meaning that others of those top-6 are more likely to drop points compared to Liverpool.

Of course, that only works to L'pool's advantage if those matches split the points rather than one of those top-6 teams wins them all - which could of course happen.

I was saying the fixtures favour L'pool till then (mid-Dec), nowt more.

[TheGayTent]

Can't see Liverpool scoring enough to challenge at the top.

[eFestivals]

Can't see Liverpool scoring enough to challenge at the top.

I defo can't see them winning the league, but I reckon they stand as good a chance of top-4 as some of the other teams ... the difficulty I have with deciding who exactly will be that top 4 is more to do with deciding who will miss out than who is good enough to be in the mix.

But anyway, Liverpool's scoring in the 2nd half of last season was decent enough, and I reckon that's a better measure to go off than their whole season average given the upgrade to the team they got in January and have done since.

I wouldn't be very surprised if they don't score tonight tho, or if thery lose. I can't see Sturridge keep on getting those scrappy goals.

[TheGayTent]

But anyway, Liverpool's scoring in the 2nd half of last season was decent enough, and I reckon that's a better measure to go off than their whole season average given the upgrade to the team they got in January and have done since.

[kaosmark2]

Every Everton fan grimaces when they see the name Naismith on the teamsheet, he gives 100% every week, but he's just shit , but yesterday he was everywhere, and made a real impact, against the chelsea superstars

I'd say Chelsea drawing away to united may prove to be less useful than some think! United are playing very everton esque from the last 11-years, winning just about, Moyes was delighted with that 0-0 against Chelsea, and given the opp he'd take the 0-0 next week too, very negative!

Something which the papers have been very quick to jump on board to, some praising Martinez, but most just pointing out that an unconvincing 2-0 against Palace, suggests Moyes 11-year tenure here was stabilising (Not, saying it was a bad job, cause it certainly wasn't, i'm happy with the job, but went stale 3-4 seasons ago imho) but that's about that.

Arsenal's squad has depth but no experiences, so I can't see them winning the league, especially with the Injuries they're getting.

I didn't even think about Liverpool, and that's not me being Bias, they are definitely an improved team, but i feel their depth isn't there either, they have an ageing less-effective Gerrard, Sturridge, Suarez and Coutinho as their key players, which to be fair isn't a bad group, but I just feel the rest is a bit average, they've done well to pick up 3 wins, can't knock them of that, but you could put it on one side and say Stoke were unlucky not to get something and so were Villa on their 2nd half effort, but saying that, that's a little luck.

My bias opinion says Man City, I have the greatest admiration for Manuel Pellegrini, as a Málaga support aswell, we had two amazing seasons under him, and for him to guide us to 1 minute (and a dodgy decision) from a semi-final in the champions league last season, i'd assume he could do it at City, but their form outside the Newcastle game has been sketchy, whilst Chelsea have been edgy away, but then again, Mourinho was never one to play amazing football, but he made them a force and that could work for them this season. I also have great respect for Mourinho, one of the games best coaches!

[pink_triangle]

true - and this season is sticking to that too; Chelsea losing at Everton, City dropping points at Stoke, the Arse losing to Villa. And of course Spurs losing to the Arse, and Utd losing to L'pool.

So up to this point, doing equally well - or not - against those lower teams gives Liverpool some extra leeway.

The only point I was getting at is that the fixtures favour L'pool in the short term, and gives them a great opportunity to stay at or very near the top until around mid-December. I'm not saying they'll actually manage to do that but only that things so far suggest they've got an excellent opportunity to do that.

Even if they do it means nothing for how the whole season might go, because winning the league means playing every team not just the less good ones. And I made a point of saying that a couple of losses and they've blown it.

It's more interesting at the top than it's been for a few years.

[eFestivals]

They've scored as many as bottom of the table Sunderland thus far.

yep, but they've also got one of the best goalscorers in the league to come back into the team. Meanwhile, they've also got the best defensive record (shared with [just?] Everton) so far.

As I said, I'm not suggesting anything except that they've got a decent chance of staying right up near the top until mid-December. What happens after that who knows.

[kaosmark2]

I see it very differently, I see Man Utd consistently beating teams like you and villa, if RVP gets injured things could of course be very different. In 2009 when Man Utd edged out liverpool for the title they got 5 out of 18 points against the teams in positions 2-4 and effectively won the league by being so consistent against everyone else, while liverpool blew it to some extent against the mid table sides. I can see Man Utd doing a similar thing this season.

[pink_triangle]

. In terms of trophy winning, yes, only Ozil has that,

[TheGayTent]

yep, but they've also got one of the best goalscorers in the league to come back into the team. Meanwhile, they've also got the best defensive record (shared with [just?] Everton) so far.

As I said, I'm not suggesting anything except that they've got a decent chance of staying right up near the top until mid-December. What happens after that who knows.

[eFestivals]

I think your maybe reading too much into 4 games, it isnt really long enough to show any trends.

Arsenal winning 3 games and then losing to villa could suggest they have are inconsistent against lesser teams or could just be an anomalie and they are likely to win almost every game. Its just too short a time period to try and draw any meaningful conclusions.

I'm not taking anything from the games so far, apart from that they're currently top and that the up-coming fixures for the next three months give them a decent chance of remaining there. As I said, the fixtures favour them for (just) that length of time.

What might actually happen in those games is another thing entirely. I've already indicated that I'm not particularly confident of them winning tonight, for example.

I am sticking with my more general idea that I think they'll be properly in the mix for top-4 tho. I think there's good reasons to think that all of the top 6 are going to be much closer this season.

[eFestivals]

Bringing Suarez back won't add any goals I don't think, it'll just change how they score and the personnel involved.

that's not how it worked out last season (either in the first half, or the improved second half of the season). They'd have to revert to their can't-score-2011/12 form for that to be the case.

[TheGayTent]

that's not how it worked out last season (either in the first half, or the improved second half of the season). They'd have to revert to their can't-score-2011/12 form for that to be the case.

[pink_triangle]

I think liverpool will win comfortably today, I think Swansea are going to have a tough season. After that prediction everyone should lump everything on the swans.

[eFestivals]

PS ... I've just been looking at some random stats pages from last season, and from those it says that Suarez scored more goals per game than any other player

(not checkled the stat, but sounds like it's probabbly right).

That's a great stat if he can manage a season without a long ban (some hope ).

PPS: from the same stats page, Sturridge was 6th best scorer-per-game - and that includes his non-scoring at Chelsea.

Edited September 16, 2013 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I didn't mean the 3 games this season - was using your example of last season.

Coutinho and Sturridge work much better together when Suarez is serving one of his many bans.

oh, I noticed that L'pool played better as a team without Suarez. I was saying that from about March, and was using that to point out that it wouldn't have been a massive loss for L'pool if they'd lost Suarez this summer.

[kaosmark2]

Although at both club and international level Ozil hasnt won that much. A lot of runner up/semi finals but not much experience (1 la liga title excluded) of making the final step/

[kaosmark2]

I think liverpool will win comfortably today, I think Swansea are going to have a tough season. After that prediction everyone should lump everything on the swans.

[pink_triangle]

Copa Del Rey as well? 2 of them isn't it?