Football 2013-2014

[thetime]

Man city and man utd can virtually guarantee qualification to the knock out stages tonight, although city finishing second will lead them to big problems in the next round.

[eFestivals]

if giroud get injured then arsenal will struggle to get the goals needed.

nope, that's not true. He scored sod all last season, and they scored plenty of goals.

Also, Podolski was played as a striker until he joined Arsenal.

The way united have played/dropped points they should be no where near top 4 and they are 3 points of 2nd never mind 4th.

nope, not true.

Take a look at the tables at the end of the last couple of seasons, and you'll see the points-per-game gained by the lower of the top-4 to be just about the same as now.

We're only ten games in, so the gap to Utd from that isn't as big as it will become if they average the same form for the rest of the season. If they match for the rest of the season the form of the current bottom-of top 4 they won't make top-4. (stating the obvious, I know)

So either they need to put in a run - if the season started now - of around league winning form, or they need the form of the current bottom-of top-4 to slip from what it's been so far.

Welcome to the world of playing catch-up, a very different scenario for you to consider from what you've had to consider before.

Edited November 5, 2013 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Man city and man utd can virtually guarantee qualification to the knock out stages tonight, although city finishing second will lead them to big problems in the next round.

[thetime]

nope, that's not true. He scored sod all last season, and they scored plenty of goals.Also, Podolski was played as a striker until he joined Arsenal. nope, not true.Take a look at the tables at the end of the last couple of seasons, and you'll see the points-per-game gained by the lower of the top-4 to be just about the same as now.We're only ten games in, so the gap to Utd from that isn't as big as it will become if they average the same form for the rest of the season. If they match for the rest of the season the form of the current bottom-of top 4 they won't make top-4. (stating the obvious, I know)So either they need to put in a run - if the season started now - of around league winning form, or they need the form of the current bottom-of top-4 to slip from what it's been so far.Welcome to the world of playing catch-up, a very different scenario for you to consider from what you've had to consider before.

[kaosmark2]

nope, that's not true. He scored sod all last season, and they scored plenty of goals.

Also, Podolski was played as a striker until he joined Arsenal.

[thetime]

Not that City ever had any chance of finishing top in that group.

[pink_triangle]

And I'm not convinced by striker-lite Chelsea nor Moaniho mk 2 - who if the rumours are to believed only took the job to save face at not getting the Utd job.

[thetime]

Because Man U never played catch-up to win the title before....

[eFestivals]

Yes 3 points to 'catch up' in 28 games is going to be really difficult.

It's not impossible - but they'd have to raise their game to Arsenal's level, which they're currently a LOT short of.

They can't even raise it to the level of Spurs or Liverpool as things stand right now.

The point I'm making is that if they raise their game quite substantially, they get to the level of Spurs and LFC - and still not make top 4.

So to make top 4 they need to take their game up two levels, which is a much bigger step than just that three points implies.

[kaosmark2]

I personally think united have no chance of the title, this season was all about stability and steadying the ship.

So anywhere in the top 4 is acceptable, especially if they can grab one of the domestic cups.

[pink_triangle]

Its interesting that most of the top sides are struggling with no more than 1 striker that will get them regular goals. There's only united, city and Liverpool who have more than one and if giroud get injured then arsenal will struggle to get the goals needed.

[pink_triangle]

Man city and man utd can virtually guarantee qualification to the knock out stages tonight, although city finishing second will lead them to big problems in the next round.

[eFestivals]

I agree, I was just laughing at Neil's assertion that Man U have never been in "the world of playing catchup" before.

It was a tongue in cheek comment, but there's an amount of truth to it anyway. I doubt Utd fans are used to considering what a team has to do to make top 4 from below that in the table.

It was interesting watching Liverpool last season, where they had a dreadful start and were (I forget) 7 or 9 points adrift within a few weeks. After that their form was just a smidgen off what was needed for top 4 but they fell a long way short of being close.

[thetime]

Athletico madrid possibly best match they could get, you have to beat the big teams eventually I suppose.

[pink_triangle]

It's not impossible - but they'd have to raise their game to Arsenal's level, which they're currently a LOT short of.

They can't even raise it to the level of Spurs or Liverpool as things stand right now.

The point I'm making is that if they raise their game quite substantially, they get to the level of Spurs and LFC - and still not make top 4.

So to make top 4 they need to take their game up two levels, which is a much bigger step than just that three points implies.

[pink_triangle]

City will need to beat a top side to advance and then get more favourable draws in future seasons

[thetime]

It's not impossible - but they'd have to raise their game to Arsenal's level, which they're currently a LOT short of.They can't even raise it to the level of Spurs or Liverpool as things stand right now.The point I'm making is that if they raise their game quite substantially, they get to the level of Spurs and LFC - and still not make top 4.So to make top 4 they need to take their game up two levels, which is a much bigger step than just that three points implies.

[thetime]

I think they have been second seeds the last couple of years, I dont think you can discount how much a part luck plays in the draw. Arsenal were top seeds and city second, yet Arsenal have the hardest draw.

[kaosmark2]

I think your overcomplicating things a little, after 10 games Man utd are within 3 points of everyone apart from Arsenal, its not a signifcant difference and could be down to variations in fortune or difficulty in the fixture list.

[thetime]

I'm willing to bet man u won't have a goal difference advantage being under Moyes though.

Edited November 5, 2013 by thetime

[kaosmark2]

Which for me is the difference in moyes and Fergie, not so much fear factor but Fergie used to go for it. Moyes is just far more cautious which will frustrate fans more than results.

That's moyes way though so probably can't change the way his teams play, in the end of the day you don't employ Woody Allen for an all action film hero.

[thetime]

I think fear factor plays a part. Moyes not going for it will reduce that as well.

I think last season Everton's more aggressive play was an experiment to try and be more fluid, but it really hit their solidity and didn't really change their success. I think he's reverting to what he knows, which didn't include 5-0 thrashings

[kaosmark2]

Although saying that only 2 teams have scored more goals than utd.

[thetime]

I'll emphasise I said goal difference. Last season Moyes changed to 2-1s and 2-2s rather than 1-0 and 0-0 as in,previous, didn't help Everton's goal diff though.

[eFestivals]

I think your overcomplicating things a little, after 10 games Man utd are within 3 points of everyone apart from Arsenal, its not a signifcant difference and could be down to variations in fortune or difficulty in the fixture list.

ten games a big chunk of the season. For how the fixtures pan out in most seasons that would be enough to make a decent judgement, but because this season there's a lot of the top-teams fixtures to come around xmas, I take your point about how some of it could be down to that.

But at the same time it's not really been the top teams that Utd have been dropping points to, so there's not particularly strong reason to think that Utd are going to make up the gap with those tough games to come.

Three points is a gap they can easily make up, but it's also gap they could easily fail to make up. Their form so far suggests they might not make it up.

It's not like their 'better' recent form of wins against Fulham and Stoke and a draw against Soton is really suggesting an upturn, even if they have picked up decent points.