Weather

[pedmills]

The thing is, J10's rating for 2011 was something like 6/10, which is close to what it is now. If you look through the netweather forum people were saying until quite close to the festival that it wasn't going to be a washout. The word washout is a vague term, but it was pretty damn muddy in 2011 until it dried up on the sunday.

I think the difference between 2011 and 2008/2009/2013 was that:

1) there was more than one rainy day
2) it had been raining in the run up to the festival so the ground was already saturated

It looks pretty certain than 2 is not going to be the case this year. We'll just have to hope 1 doesn't happen either.

Edited June 20, 2014 by pedmills

[stevieweevil]

Latest from the MET

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jun 2014 to Thursday 3 Jul 2014:

High pressure will continue to bring fine and dry weather to many parts through Tuesday and Wednesday with good spells of sunshine, especially in the south and southwest. It will be cloudier in the north with showery rain over Scotland, particularly the northwest where locally heavy, and this may move southwards across eastern areas later. Feeling warm in the sunshine and perhaps very warm in the south, but somewhat cooler in the north. From Thursday onwards, however, high pressure is likely to decline allowing more changeable conditions with cloud and rain pushing in across western and northwestern parts. However, southeastern parts may hang on to the dry and fine weather until the weekend. Most likely remaining changeable into the following week with occasional rain interspersed with drier spells.

Updated: 1214 on Thu 19 Jun 2014

[Ed209]

oh dear

[tumbles]

The thing is, J10's rating for 2011 was something like 6/10, which is close to what it is now. If you look through the netweather forum people were saying until quite close to the festival that it wasn't going to be a washout. The word washout is a vague term, but it was pretty damn muddy in 2011 until it dried up on the sunday.

I think the difference between 2011 and 2008/2009/2013 was that:

1) there was more than one rainy day

2) it had been raining in the run up to the festival so the ground was already saturated

It looks pretty certain than 2 is not going to be the case this year. We'll just have to hope 1 doesn't happen either.

The worst thing that happened on 2011 was that it biblically shat it down from about 10am for an hour on already soft/damp ground when the majority of people were walking into the site and it churned it up from the offset. Didn't recover from that all festival really. It's been much hotter and drier this year leading up that even last year.

[Gnomicide]

Latest from the MET

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jun 2014 to Thursday 3 Jul 2014:

High pressure will continue to bring fine and dry weather to many parts through Tuesday and Wednesday with good spells of sunshine, especially in the south and southwest. It will be cloudier in the north with showery rain over Scotland, particularly the northwest where locally heavy, and this may move southwards across eastern areas later. Feeling warm in the sunshine and perhaps very warm in the south, but somewhat cooler in the north. From Thursday onwards, however, high pressure is likely to decline allowing more changeable conditions with cloud and rain pushing in across western and northwestern parts. However, southeastern parts may hang on to the dry and fine weather until the weekend. Most likely remaining changeable into the following week with occasional rain interspersed with drier spells.

Updated: 1214 on Thu 19 Jun 2014

[Swine_Glasto2014]

What the hell is wrong with that????

Do people really expect it to be all nice and fluffy and no rain or wind and no cloud and be perfect?

Get a grip, the weather's going to change, it's going to rain at some point. Take waterproofs and wellies and carry on.

[Swine_Glasto2014]

oh dear

Why

[pentura]

What the hell is wrong with that????

Do people really expect it to be all nice and fluffy and no rain or wind and no cloud and be perfect?

Get a grip, the weather's going to change, it's going to rain at some point. Take waterproofs and wellies and carry on.

It didn't in 2010. Very nice and fluffy indeed.

[rubenz]

What the hell is wrong with that????

Do people really expect it to be all nice and fluffy and no rain or wind and no cloud and be perfect?

Get a grip, the weather's going to change, it's going to rain at some point. Take waterproofs and wellies and carry on.

It has been pretty much like that for the last couple of weeks though!

[Mr.Tease]

So long range forecasting is based not on anything specifically measurable, so much as on computer models of what tends to happen after what we are currently experiencing. Not only might the current observation be imperfect, but so might the modelling system.

Perhaps then the only real issue is the prevalent weather conditions, which are okish.

2007, as I recall, was unsettled and cold leading up to the festival, which meant the best we were ever going to get was a window of fair weather (with we didn't). This time, it may rain a bit, or even a bit more than a bit, but the prevailing conditions are warm, and the ground will more easily drain. There's really no comparison.

Frankly, I can't see what can possibly go wrong.

The way I understand it, it's like if you lived in a small town, and someone types everyone's routines into a computer over a few years, and then used that to run a simulation as to what would happen in that town in the future.

Now, if one person on one day tripped over, it would have a cascade effect- they might miss their bus, so the people at their office had to change their routine to accommodate the late worker, which in turn affects their routines and the people they are scheduled to interact with, and so on, so the model gets more and more inaccurate with every passing minute, hour and day.

So that's why long range forecasts are so unreliable- it's basically like chaos theory whereby the slightest change has a cascade effect that messes up everything.

[Swine_Glasto2014]

It has been pretty much like that for the last couple of weeks though!

Yes too warm and fluffy for a festival.

Bit of rain, cloud n sun would be perfect.

I knew the day they announced a mini heat wave that it woukd almost definitely change in time for Glastonbury,. And guess what? It is and it's changing for the worse.

Read all the positive comments and people in the know how. It's gonna be fine

[Cheesey]

Frankly, I can't see what can possibly go wrong.

That's what we thought in 2005...

Seriously though - I agree. It's going to be fine. Who cares about a few showers? All adds to the fun.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Cheesey

[fur_q]

Looking at cumaltive rainfall it doesn't look that bad, the difference between 2011 and this year is that in 2011 the ground was saturated before anyone turned up & the rain on the Friday went on for hours which some really heavy spells. I'm certain we knew at this stage to expect to be wearing wellies the whole time.

Anyway there is a slight glimmer of hope in the latest ECMWF run, But right now I'm cautiously sceptical and labelling it an outlier.

[The Nal]

We'll just have to hope 1 doesn't happen either.

That's what we thought in 2005...

Exactly. It only rained for two hours!

Jesus we're fucked this is a disaster. Low pressure moving in and rain every day!

At best its going to be like this all weekend.

Edited June 20, 2014 by The Nal

[Mr.Tease]

Exactly. It only rained for two hours!

Jesus we're fucked this is a disaster. Low pressure moving in and rain every day!

At best its going to be like this all weekend.

I appreciate your attempts to engineer a reverse-jinx!

[dirty_dog]

Im sticking with this one http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/glastonbury

[Wooderson]

Exactly. It only rained for two hours!

Jesus we're fucked this is a disaster. Low pressure moving in and rain every day!

At best its going to be like this all weekend.

Hark at Punxsutawny Phil here! Prognosticator of prognosticators!!!!!!

Nothing is certain here chief.

- 2005 is storm of the decade kinda stuff

- 2007 was vile for 8 weeks leading up to the fest

If anything this reminds me of 2008/2009 which was more than tolerable.

[Pinhead]

The picture with the blue tent - doesn't look too bad then tbh.... (I've seen worse..!)

[howlin_pete]

Someone on the netweather forum has posted that they have never seen such a inconsistant set a charts for the next 7-10 days. Sounds like it could still go either way

[SiWri]

Oh the weather it may be frightful

Then again, it could be delightful

We'll definitely see some snow

Let's still go

Let's still go

Let's still go

Edited June 20, 2014 by SiWri

[JoeyT]

Edging towards 100 pages. It's getting serious now

[lofichic]

I am obviously not remembering 2011 properly cause I really dont remember it being that bad. I remember wearing wellies a bit but thats about it. I'm still scarred from 2007.

[Glastonlocal]

Rain down, rain down

Come on rain down on me

From a great height

From a great height... height...

Rain down, rain down

Come on rain down on me

From a great height

From a great height... height...

Rain down, rain down

Come on rain down on me

[Swine_Glasto2014]

Someone on the netweather forum has posted that they have never seen such a inconsistant set a charts for the next 7-10 days. Sounds like it could still go either way

Someone???!!!

Says alot doesn't it.

[The Nal]

Feeling a little chilly today. I can sense that cold snap rolling in.