Weather thread 2015

[Tacopowell]

Is anyone else waiting on this Sundays Countryfile forecast as the holy grail?
Of all forecasts they do seem to get it correct most weeks.
Is it a farmer thing?
I wonder if Eavis knows?

[Brave Sir Robin]

The figure I have for 2014 is 44mm. If that is accurate then the maximum on the tuesday before the festival was closest:

 

To one decimal place...

2014's 44mm is 2.3x the final mean of 19.5mm, and 1x the final maximum of 42.6mm.

2013's 4.1mm is 1.6x the final mean of 2.6mm, and 0.7x the final maximum of 6mm.

The average of 2.3 and 1.6 is 2, and the average of 1 and 0.7 is 0.9.

 

So based on (two) previous years, the actual rainfall ends up being double the mean and near the maximum of the website forecasts.

Great work. Like a weather thingy.

[Dog Burger]

Is anyone else waiting on this Sundays Countryfile forecast as the holy grail?

Of all forecasts they do seem to get it correct most weeks.

Is it a farmer thing?

I wonder if Eavis knows?

Nah they just get it from the same source of the rest of the BBC stuff, I'd imagine. Nice in theory though

[siblin]

I do mostly agree with you, although some websites update more frequently or at different times to others. So a decrease in one site one day might predict a decrease in a (slower-to-update) site the next. Also, trends do appear, between the 13th and the morning of the 16th the forecasts were getting worse and worse, as was the case for the last few days last year.

 

but that is a trend in retrospect based on, say, a strengthening low.  It doesn't mean that say, as an observer on the 15th you could have said "tomorrow will be even worse", else that trend would continue indefinitely , for the stockmarket, for example, you could in those circumstances bet one way or the other.  for weather reports you cant.

 

Your point about the update times is valid, but only looking at the forecast over the last 24-48 hours.

[siblin]

would love to see the prediction pattern for 2010.. when did they know it was going to be a heatwave?

[wosman]

1330 tomorrow BBC has another weather for the week ahead update, may be worth checking out

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05yn66f

[benc]

has anyone check the old forecasting stone to see what that says?

[The Nal]

would love to see the prediction pattern for 2010.. when did they know it was going to be a heatwave?

 

No but they knew it would be dry by Monday

 

http://www.theguardian.com/music/2010/jun/21/glastonbury-2010-good-weather-forecast

 

 

Small chance of rain Saturday/Sunday

 

But even on the Monday they weren't sure about the weekend.

Edited June 19, 2015 by The Nal

[siblin]

No but they knew it would be dry by Monday

 

http://www.theguardian.com/music/2010/jun/21/glastonbury-2010-good-weather-forecast

 

 

Small chance of rain Saturday/Sunday

 

But even on the Monday they weren't sure about the weekend.

 

amazingly tentative language in the telegraph article! 

[doogie]

1330 tomorrow BBC has another weather for the week ahead update, may be worth checking out

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05yn66f

 

The BBC News channel has the weather for the week ahead every evening at 9.55pm.  That's the one to watch.

[Franky]

Right, woke up this morning and looked at weather forecast for Aylesbury where I live. 2 separate forecasts said thick dark cloud all day.

It's been beautiful all day, I have to conclude if they can't even forecast the day we are on correctly all this shit is bollox !!!!

Word to all your mothers.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Franky

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

At this point last year, trend was:

 

- Forecast OK but getting worse

- BBC / Met Office predicting more rain than everyone else

 

Currently:

 

- Forecast OK but getting better

- BBC / Met Office predicting less rain than everyone else

 

ALL ABOARD THE HAPPY BUS

[saintfletch]

And Boom goes the dynamite!

[devonhammer]

Skip to 3:10

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

 

The man clearly has no idea

[ghandi]

Skip to 3:10

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

 

The man clearly has no idea

 

Hang on this man couldn't predict a predict a storm if it blew him in the face

[Avalon_Fields]

I could justify earning a B.Sc (Hons) in Meteorology just by following this thread, maybe even understanding some of the visual data gets me to PHD level.

[Chemical Woody]

At this point last year, trend was:

- Forecast OK but getting worse

- BBC / Met Office predicting more rain than everyone else

Currently:

- Forecast OK but getting better

- BBC / Met Office predicting less rain than everyone else

ALL ABOARD THE HAPPY BUS

Actually last year it was the evil Metcheck empire whose last week's forecasts proved to be most accurate.

Monkeys, typewriters, etc.

[jimmyt]

Actually last year it was the evil Metcheck empire whose last week's forecasts proved to be most accurate.

Monkeys, typewriters, etc.

What? The best prediction last year was "To be or not to be"? These weather peeps are really rubbish, aren't they?!!

[oneeye]

Actually last year it was the evil Metcheck empire whose last week's forecasts proved to be most accurate.

Monkeys, typewriters, etc.

Really?........

Compared to who?

[pedmills]

I found some data for 2013:

 

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

What? The best prediction last year was "To be or not to be"? These weather peeps are really rubbish, aren't they?!!

2014: It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.

[oneeye]

You'll not get any accurate forecast until at least Monday, all up for grabs atm, subject to change etc......

One thing it won't be though, is a repeat of 2010

[siblin]

You'll not get any accurate forecast until at least Monday, all up for grabs atm, subject to change etc......

One thing it won't be though, is a repeat of 2010

 

One-eye.  There's no Santa Claus.

 

(if you're going to piss on my bonfire i'm going to piss on yours)

[justperfect]

But can we rule out another '05 yet ?

Edited June 19, 2015 by justperfect

[oneeye]

One-eye. There's no Santa Claus.

(if you're going to piss on my bonfire i'm going to piss on yours)

But there is an Easter bunny, I've seen it, with big pointy teeth........

It was dark, somewhere up near the ribbon tower, I saw it I tell you, as tall as a house, staring down at me

Edited June 19, 2015 by oneeye