Weather thread 2015

[st dan]

Had that loads of times

Me: "We're off to Glastonbury tomorrow"

Fools: "is that the muddy one"

Me: *despair*

Haha, yep! People need putting in their place!

Just flipped at somebody who said this, and mid mini-rant I realised that it was my boss' boss' boss (senior director of a huge global company). Not that I care about work in the slightest at this stage!!!

[devonhammer]

Update for today. Showers seems to be pretty locked in now. We are talking light showers, not mudbath, probably not even mud at all.

J10: Dry and fine for Wednesday and Thursday, damp and Cloudy on Friday. Still uncertain for the weekend probably mostly dry on Saturday with some showers at worse. while showers are possible on Sunday. .

GFS: Showers Friday afternoon and Sunday

TWO: Showers on Friday, but otherwise dry

Meteox: Showers Friday, showers Sunday. Tiny shower Saturday.

Meteo: Light showers on Friday and Sunday. Otherwise dry.

GFS Ensemble: Showers overnight on Friday.

Met Office: Showers Friday. Not forecasting Sunday yet.

ECM: Possible showers on Saturday. Otherwise dry.

YR.NO: Light showers Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Norton-Radstock – Warm and humid with a lot of cloud at times and the chance of some showery rain on Friday before cooler, fresher and dry conditions return on Saturday.

[big__phil]

Also Big Phil is signing a new untied contract:

 

Am I?

[Sawdusty surfer]

It's an absolutely beautiful morning here on the farm

[devonhammer]

Am I?

You're the manager of Crimea.

Good luck

[Andy0808 v5]

Anyone on site care to tell me how my trolleys wheels may fare tomorrow?

[deefer6]

Anyone not taking waterproofs and wellies is mental.

I learnt this the hard way in 1998.

This. My first Glastonbury was 98 and my improvised waterproofing system of tying black bags around my feet up to my thighs was catastrophic. I learnt some important lessons that year I can tell you.

[GlastoSimon]

To put it into perspective, some of these sites are suggesting we'll have just above half of the rainfall we had on the Thursday of 2013. It's not perfect, but it's no where near biblical as the media are suggesting in certain places. It's fun for them to predict 'mudbaths'. 

Edited June 23, 2015 by GlastoSimon

[mr mister]

It depends what else you've got. If you've got walking boots, I wouldn't worry too much. If you've got your best trainers, i'd go get some wellies

 

Obviously not going to wear my 'best trainers', but dont have walking boots either. I was thinking something in the middle - i.e converse boots that I don't mind getting f**ked...

Maybe a bit opptimistic..

[jezzer]

For those on twitter @fergieweather has given a concise summary of weather for the next few days and into the weekend in his recent tweets

[wetflame]

I've bought walking boots but no gaiters. I'll probably bring wellies but hope not to use them. Will leave the wellies and waterproof jacket in a lock up for easy access, take an emergency poncho with me in case of a sudden shower. Hopefully my planning will be for naught.

[Alcatraz]

I've bought walking boots but no gaiters. I'll probably bring wellies but hope not to use them. Will leave the wellies and waterproof jacket in a lock up for easy access, take an emergency poncho with me in case of a sudden shower. Hopefully my planning will be for naught.

To summarise. Friday rain very small. Sunday hard to predict

[Starks]

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/5070-tuesday-forecast-2/

 

Forecast is changing by the hour at the moment.....

[kalifire]

Seems like perfect weather in Somerset today. A little cloudy but good temperatures, sun and plenty of blue in the sky.

[pedmills]

Right here are this morning's forecasts according to 17 different weather websites.

 

First, how the forecasts have evolved over the last few weeks:

 

As you can see, all forecasts are currently below the rainfall figures I have for 2007, 2014, 2009 and 2011.

Next, how the maximum has changed in the last few days compared to the forecasts in 2013 and 2014:

The most amount of rain predicted on the tuesday before 2014 is almost 6x as much as the highest forecast this year. 
 

Next, how the mean has changed in the last few days compared to the forecasts in 2013 and 2014: 

 

The mean is currently 4mm - which is very close to the rainfall figure i have for 2013. The figure I have for 2014 is ten times the current mean, and the forecast on the tuesday before the festival 2015 was almost five times as much.

 

Next, of the 17 sites I've looked at, there are 6 which I have data for the tuesday forecasts in 2013, 2014 and 2015:

 

Note how much worse 2014 looks compared to 2013 and 2015.

 

And finally, the forecast rainfall separated by day:

 

So about 2mm on the friday and about 2mm on the sunday.

Doesn't sound too bad, does it?

[swede]

Haha, yep! People need putting in their place!

Just flipped at somebody who said this, and mid mini-rant I realised that it was my boss' boss' boss (senior director of a huge global company). Not that I care about work in the slightest at this stage!!!

I just had the factory idiot come up for a chat, ask me about Glasto, and then say "its forecast a mudbath, rain every day", I had to firmly put him in his place, the guy is an absolute fool.

[frostypaw]

Right here are this morning's forecasts according to 17 different weather websites.

...

Doesn't sound too bad, does it?

No, no it doesn't sound too bad at all.

If you see me demand your free pint anytime Fantastic efforts, so glad it's paid out with a good result

[Splonk]

Just down the road from the site and the weather this morning is amazing.

Very hot and sunny with a nice cooling breeze and the occasional orb like fluffy cloud to keep the sunburn at bay.

It's looking very promising

[Mark it Zero!]

Just adding my voice to the appreciation of all you have taken time to analyse the charts for our lesser minds. Pedmills and Briddj in particular.

 

The rainfall amounts seem good, but we seem pretty locked in for a dirty Sunday and the rainfall amounts have trebled for Friday so that might not be fun at points... but after what we were expecting last Thursday it seems absolutely ridiculous to complain about any of it!

[Mark it Zero!]

Oh and sorry to put this here but I can't figure out how to change my display name, can anyone point me in the right direction to figure this out?

 

Would be easier to pretend to my bosses I haven't spent the past week living on this forum if my name wasn't emblazoned all over it.

 

Cheers!

[Glastonlocal]

wish the rain was coming all at once then the rest of the weekend is sunny, but oh well. Can't have it all. Doesn't look too bad 

[The Placid Casual]

Oh and sorry to put this here but I can't figure out how to change my display name, can anyone point me in the right direction to figure this out?

 

Would be easier to pretend to my bosses I haven't spent the past week living on this forum if my name wasn't emblazoned all over it.

 

Cheers!

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/154466-change-name/page-11

[devonhammer]

Right here are this morning's forecasts according to 17 different weather websites.

 

 

 

So about 2mm on the friday and about 2mm on the sunday.

Doesn't sound too bad, does it?

 

You, sir, are a star.

 

The trend and comparison with previous years is really useful even if one has a bit of meteorological knowledge. I thought today looked a bit worse and it does on the mean values, but seeing the max come back into line gives me real confidence for a consensus.

 

If you work out who I am, I'll buy you a pint (hint: I'll be wearing a hat)

[mikeydredlox]

thanks all - it's been emotional, now time to fuck off to Somerset - see you there

[ThomThomDrum]

Dont think Ive said it yet but stellar work folks and a big thanks to all who cobble together the data and reports. The little rollercoaster it creates is entertaining. A warped type of entertainment but entertaining nonetheless