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Weather thread 2015


Swine_Glasto2014

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Latest GFS run showing perhaps marginally less rain for Friday than earlier. Certainly no worse.

So could we be expecting something similar to a 2009 Friday again , it was pretty light rain up until the view came on then the day was glorious after that

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Onto the 12Z update....

I think we are better off on Friday and Saturday, and there's not really any difference on Sunday. So I think this is a very small improvement.


Weds: No rain, max temp stable at 21, pressure stable.

Thurs: No rain, max temp stable at 23, pressure stable.

Fri: Pretty much like before but with light showers arriving in the morning until early evening. Much less of a threat to the north once again. Could more of that rain drift away in later runs? Max temps two degrees lower though at 20, pressure a little higher.

Sat: Chance of a few very light showers in the afternoon but really not amounting to anything at all, and certainly nothing to even remotely worry about. Temps stable at 20, pressure a little higher (was dropping earlier).

Sun:  Showers could hit the site around 6am until 6pm, mostly light showers so the same as before but any thing more than drizzly showers is now tracking further north and hitting North Wales/Liverpool. Max temp has notched up a degree to 17 (needs to keep rising!), but pressure stable.
 

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From the latest 12z run:

 

Wednesday looks dry and about max 20C, high clouds with some sunshine in the morning but getting increasingly cloudy in the afternoon/evening

 

Thursday looks like a great day, 23C pushing 24C at 3pm and just a bit of high cloud. Reckon it will feel pretty hot.

 

Fridays rainfall total amounts to only 1mm but maxing out about 20-21C and cloudy.

 

Saturday looks around 20-21C with something like 0-1mm worth of showers, but largely sunny most of the day.

 

Sunday definitely the poorest of the lot with about 3mm rain, max 17-18C and full cloud cover all day.

 

Most importantly IMO is whether the predicted showers are likely to become thunderstorms - that's what happened when a lot of rain was dumped in 2005 and to a (much lesser) extent last year. The CAPE values predicted by the GFS are low, which means thunderstorms would not be expected to develop.

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