Weather thread 2015

[GlastoSimon]

The latest from my mate at the met office is "signals are for a ridge extension from the Azores High to dominate initially, bringing driest and warmest conditions to south and eat - moderate confidence". This is for the period from 21st of June to mid July.

C'MMMMMONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

This tends to fit in with the positivity of the recent mid and long range forecasts (I've been stalking Netweather forums over the last few days )

Still way too early though, would be nice to get some crap weather out of the way this weekend though - sorry IOW and Download.

Edited June 11, 2015 by GlastoSimon

[Keithy]

if everyone stood still when it rained and waited for an hour after it stopped, it wouldn't get so muddy.

dry on weds and monday morning is the main thing for me. can live with the inevitable rain for the rest of the fest.

my glasto prep has always been to assume rain on at least 2 days and be pleasantly surprised if it's less.

[Spindles]

Ask your mate at the Met Office if he can predict line ups too. The 2016 headliners thread may not ever have to end up like this years.

The only way this thread could compete with the headliner thread is if we all spent 6 months saying it would be sunny and it snowed.

[LondonTom]

The only way this thread could compete with the headliner thread is if we all spent 6 months saying it would be sunny and it snowed.

With the snow scheduled to be in Paris for 5 of those 6 months

[William of Walworth]

Alright everybody.

Been a long long time since I've been anywhere near all this marvellous efests Glasto Weather chat malarkey,

I get on the Netweather forums so that (most of) you don't have to.

My brief summary of general synoptic/technical discussion over there since early June is this :

Conditions are pretty unlikely to be looking anywhere near a washout in SW England for the final third of this month.

Check J10's (aka JackOne's) Glasto weather blog on the Netweather forums (warning : all very technical!)

He'll be adding further updates next week.

[wosman]

Welcome back WOW, such a gent they named a stage at Glastonbury in his honour!

Bring on the sunshine : )

[glasto-worker]

Alright everybody.

Been a long long time since I've been anywhere near all this marvellous efests Glasto Weather chat malarkey,

I get on the Netweather forums so that (most of) you don't have to.

My brief summary of general synoptic/technical discussion over there since early June is this :

Conditions are pretty unlikely to be looking anywhere near a washout in SW England for the final third of this month.

Check J10's (aka JackOne's) Glasto weather blog on the Netweather forums (warning : all very technical!)

He'll be adding further updates next week.

as you know - next week is the danger week that will decide if the ground is stable or a swamp when the ticket holders arrive.

its pure sods law as its not been bad the past week.

nice to see you posting again { have seen many posts over on urban75 }

[frostypaw]

When WoW shows up you know the weather party has started!

[Peroni]

So today is weather apocalypse. 12th June a date that will live on in infamy. Today is when the pressure is due to break and lots of rain due to hit. Hopefully the ground holds up!!

http://home.bt.com/lifestyle/glastonbury-festival-weather-heavy-rain-forecast-11363984176216

[Aragorn]

just had a look at the latest GFS model run - it a nice start to the fest but then it goes downhill. However in weather terms its a long way away yet and almost certainly will change, next one out at around 10:30am

[Guest]

Not a drop of rain or a flash of lightning last night in Shepton Mallet last night despite the dire forecasts. Looks like we'll get some rain today though hopefully not in the amounts forecast.

[mozzy]

First devonhammer & now William of Walworth back to the weather thread, the surest sign the festival is just around the corner!

[JoeyT]

Latest from netweather:

Looking at the latest EC32 update and the ECM ens ext. anomalies everything looks on track for a fine three days although obviously I bow to J10's opinion

Both have HP centred to the SW ridging over the UK with some height rises also in Scandinavia. Thus very light winds mainly from the W/NW and believe it or not temps above average.

[big__phil]

Looking forward to this morning's chart(s) and graphs.

Is this the sort of time where more forecasts come into range, or is that after the weekend?

[Spindles]

First devonhammer, now William of Walworth return? This thread just gets better.

Looks like I'll be giving my wet weather gear a test run over the weekend with my walks to and from work, hopefully the only time they'll be used in anger this summer.

[majormajormajor]

Here are today's charts. The reason why the graphs are so all over the place after June 23 is because it is impossible to predict!

The latest GFS says a big low pressure system is blowing in during the festival -- which looks like it won't be here until the Sunday at the earliest.

The problem is if the jetstream is overhead.

Precipitation chart:

Pressure chart:

And here's that big low coming in. Pray that fucks off until the week after:

Edited June 12, 2015 by majormajormajor

[devonhammer]

Charts are not looking good today

<sub>GFS: Latest run very poor. Dry until Friday lunchtime, but then rain and showers with the high pressure fading away.

TWO: Rain on Saturday. Showers on Sunday.

Meteox: Not in forecast range yet.

Meteo: Only forecasts to Thursday of festival, but dry.

GFS Ensemble: Lots of the models showing rain, especially Saturday.

Met Office: No specific forecast yet, but "Generally settled with plenty of dry and fine weather likely across many southern areas".

ECM: Not in forecast range yet.

YR.NO: Not in forecast range yet.</sub>

[mungo57]

its already showered here in Kingston, London, a few times.

Quite a way from Shepton but annoying nonetheless. It is supposed to fucking HACK it down tonight! And I am taking the lady out........ I was planning to wear my Cashmere Blazer and all

[Familiar2billions]

It's finally happened, the weather thread has taken over my life. What started as one look a day a week back has now turned in to a look every 10 minutes and i cant see that changing right up until next Tuesday night! But that can only mean one thing.... WE ARE SO BLOODY CLOSE!

[CiaranMc]

It's finally happened, the weather thread has taken over my life. What started as one look a day a week back has now turned in to a look every 10 minutes and i cant see that changing right up until next Tuesday night! But that can only mean one thing.... WE ARE SO BLOODY CLOSE!

This.

[big__phil]

I think my responses for the next week or so will be either of the following:

Good news - dances around office/home/public area, thanking weather gods and sacrificing coat in ritual.

Bad news - too early to tell, they always get it wrong this far out.

Edited June 12, 2015 by big__phil

[devonhammer]

Welcome back WoW.

On the plus side, it looks glorious next week and when it breaks down is after the resolution shifts from every three hours to every 12 hours, so confidence in this is low

[devonhammer]

I think my responses for the next week or so will be either of the following:

Good news - dances around office/home/public area, thanking weather gods and sacrificing coat in ritual.

Bad news - too early to tell, they always get it wrong this far out.

Spot on

I thought it was goats that were sacrificed. All this time and all those poor goats :-(

[big__phil]

Spot on

I thought it was goats that were sacrificed. All this time and all those poor goats :-(

If we put coats on the goats, everyone is happy!

(Except the goats.)

Edited June 12, 2015 by big__phil

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

Don't think this has been posted, but this is yesterday's Met Office outlook for Friday 26th June - Friday 10th July (biggish time period but still):

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Jun 2015 to Friday 10 Jul 2015:

Generally settled with plenty of dry and fine weather likely across many southern areas at first, however, cloudier, breezier conditions are expected in the northwest, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. These more unsettled conditions may then spread south through the period to affect other parts of the UK at times. This trend continues into early July, with just a hint of more settled and drier conditions thereafter. Temperatures may be on the cool side for the time of year in the northwest, with the best of any warmer, sunnier conditions likely in the south.

sounds alright to me.