Weather thread 2015

[big__phil]

In all last weekends general weather trends where quite well predicted for quite some time before (there isn't anywhere near that level of certainty for glasto week in the data ATM), but I think the warnings of torrential rain where more down to the Micheal Fish Effect* than what the actual model data was showing.

*ie since the infamous 87 storm forecast human forecasters will always report worse case scenarios when there is a likelihood of bad weather, in order to not repeat that scenario.

The Michael Fish Effect sounds like a band name.

Edited June 16, 2015 by big__phil

[djcolsen]

He's used his strength and that's his strength, his strength

Better

[Space Shanty]

Better

 

That's what you want from your forecaster... forecasts

[big__phil]

I think at this stage, Clive, any of the forecasts could be right.

[wetflame]

The weather can go one of three ways - it's sunny, or it rains.

[alframsey]

Too much footbal related stuff in this thread, back to meteorology please?

[PabloCoke]

The drainage helps to prevent flooding like Pennards in 2005, but it doesn't stop type 1 mud from appearing - it just doesn't get as deep as it used to.

I remember parts of the markets in 1997 being literally impassable at one stage due to waist-deep type 1 mud. I haven't seen mud on that scale since 1997. 1998 looked just as bad, but I wasn't there that year.

97 was the thickest stickiest mud ever known to man. People coming out of wellies aots.

[big__phil]

The weather can go one of three ways - it's sunny, or it rains.

 

Ha!

[neil999]

whaen does the next 'thing' come out? and how many 'things' are there a day?(and what times are they?)

 

many thanks

[JoeyT]

they start updating around 4.30 pm and it takes about 90 mins to get to the end of the 'run'

 

Edit: at least I think that's the case

Edited June 16, 2015 by JoeyT

[Sawdusty surfer]

97 was the thickest stickiest mud ever known to man. People coming out of wellies aots.

 

It really was.People were getting properly stuck. So stuck that they really could not move anywhere. When people went to rescue them they would also get stuck. It was incredible. The clay/soil/water mix had achieved absolute perfection. I have never witnessed anything quite that bad before or since.

 

 Many of the main drags that are made of hardcore turned in to deeply rutted mantraps because all the hardcore stuck to the tractor tyres and so got removed. 

 

 '98 was wetter and so the mud wasn't as sticky.

[Space Shanty]

The Weather Network seems to think it'll be dry and sunny for the early part of the festival with the possibility of intermittent showers over the weekend, although high pressure may even prevent those showers moving in.

 

Now Lucy, about that date...

[MEGABOWL]

This thread is making me wish I'd chosen meteorology at uni.

Well, this and Lucy Verasamy... and Laura Tobin.

Shite careers adviser.

As part of the training for my job (Air Traffic Control) I did about 12 hours of meteorology. Hated it. I don't wish to insult any serious metheads on here in fact fair play to you for sticking with it but it sent me to sleep on a regular basis

[JoeyT]

Last years thread at the equivalent time:

 

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/page-62

 

It was today that Pedmills first said he was going to do a graph.

 

There also appears to have been a fair bit of mud slinging between this thread and the NFR NFC thread.

[Padgey]

The Weather Network seems to think it'll be dry and sunny for the early part of the festival with the possibility of intermittent showers over the weekend, although high pressure may even prevent those showers moving in.

 

Now Lucy, about that date...

 

Haha she's definitely worth watching the weather for!

[neil999]

Last years thread at the equivalent time:

 

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/page-62

 

It was today that Pedmills first said he was going to do a graph.

 

There also appears to have been a fair bit of mud slinging between this thread and the NFR NFC thread.

 

ha! saying similar stuff to now, so hopefully it doesnt pan out that way...

[Space Shanty]

Haha she's definitely worth watching the weather for!

 

She could be on screen predicting the most destructive storm in history and I wouldn't give a fuck.

Magnificent

[justperfect]

Was stuck in the car park in 97 till Tuesday. Impossible to get out without the assistance of the farmer and his tractor (and a £10 towing fee)

[Drfoxxx]

Bring on the sun... Have faith

[Dog Burger]

Was stuck in the car park in 97 till Tuesday. Impossible to get out without the assistance of the farmer and his tractor (and a £10 towing fee)

Wow - Tuesday!! I first went in 98 and we parked offsite and walked. In 2007, we took most of the day to get out of the car park, but it wasn't overnight into Tuesday. Your poor bastard!

[big__phil]

Last years thread at the equivalent time:

 

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/page-62

 

It was today that Pedmills first said he was going to do a graph.

 

There also appears to have been a fair bit of mud slinging between this thread and the NFR NFC thread.

 

All before my time (I'm pretty new here), but the mud slinging seems pretty bizzare! I'm glad it's now moved on to Phil Jones' face and Andy Townsend impressions.

[The Nal]

ha! saying similar stuff to now, so hopefully it doesnt pan out that way...

 

Seems the exact same

 

 

2005. Was great and then turned into a disaster.

 

This year is going to be a disaster too. I know, it, you know it and Eavis knows it. Big thunderstorm, site gets flooded, we all churn up the site and we're fucked.

 

 

And this

 

Here are the total mm's of rain from the sites that are currently forecasting wed-sun.

 

More sites will be added as they cover the whole festival, and I'll start doing a graph from tomorrow.

If we take 10mm of rain to = 2013, then 6 out of 7 sites are forecasting 2014 to be better than 2013.

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2015 by The Nal

[neil999]

Seems the exact same

 

 

 

 

And this

 

 

 

 

 

you mean this is a waste of time?! oh for crying out loud

[jeffie]

There also appears to have been a fair bit of mud slinging between this thread and the NFR NFC thread.

 

The Weather Thread never stood a chance!! Lol

 

Peace people, we all want the same thing.

[JoeyT]

The Weather Thread never stood a chance!! Lol

 

Peace people, we all want the same thing.

 

We do indeed.

 

Next charts rolling out now. Where will the next twist take us?!