Weather 2016

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, The Nal said:

This reads to me like this: 

在英國有一些值得用3主力機型。

在英國氣象局（滿足辦公模式）運行在00Z和12Z ，我們能看到的業務運行，而歌舞團是隱藏的。該樂團基本上是略有不同的輸入條件多次運行，並給予不僅僅是一個運行趨勢的一個更好的主意。比如今天的英國氣象局12Z可能是不可信的熱浪，但它可能是一個巨大的異常和其他成員涼爽陣雨。

該ECMWF運行在同一時間為英國氣象局，我們再次能看到業務和有關歌舞團的一些信息

政府飛行服務隊是非常受歡迎的，因為它運行在00Z ， 06Z ， 12Z和18Z - 我們不僅能看到操作運行，但我們可以看到它的所有集合成員。

haha! yeh, not surprised to be honest.

It's best to just think of it as 3 predictions of the weather from 3 different companies...Maybe that makes it easier  

[evilduck]

I can't help but check this thread every 5 mins, even though I know it's mostly useless.

[**claire**]

1 hour ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

@pedmills said a while back he would be returning... please??

At least we now have @devonhammer's summary, which I hope becomes a daily occurrence.

This is very true - apologies for overlooking your sterling work @devonhammer!

[big__phil]

2 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

haha! yeh, not surprised to be honest.

It's best to just think of it as 3 predictions of the weather from 3 different companies...Maybe that makes it easier  

Now that I can get head around.

[devonhammer]

7 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

For the UK there are 3 main models that are worth using.

The UKMO (met office model) runs at 00z and 12z and we get to see the operational run, while the ensembles are hidden. The ensembles are essentially multiple runs with slightly different input conditions and give a better idea of the trend than just one run. For example the UKMO 12z today could be incredible with a heatwave but it might be a massive outlier and the other members are cool and showery.

The ECMWF runs at the same times as the UKMO, again we get to see the operational and some information about the ensembles

The GFS is very popular because it runs at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z - we not only get to see the operational run but we see all of it's ensemble members.

GFS got a big update in January as well. Traditionally I've not trusted it as much as the European models (UKMO, ECMWY, yr.no), but it will be interesting to see if it has improved.

On the ensembles, you can see where there's a certainty of rain, or where only a few runs show it (there are 20 runs in the ensemble):

[joelovesleeds!]

I hope the current hysteria in this thread goes the same way the Radiohead one did...

[The Nal]

11 minutes ago, evilduck said:

I can't help but check this thread every 5 mins, even though I know it's mostly useless.

Yeah, anything further ahead than 3 days - ie this Friday - isn't reliable at all with regard to rainfall and anything further ahead than 5 days isn't isn't reliable at all with regard to temperature. 

So we could get this

 

Or we could get this

 

Just as well I understand pictures of raindrops and sun because I've no idea what an "operational run" means, haven't a fucking clue what an "ensemble" is, wouldn't know a "GFS" if it slapped me in the face and "00zs" and "06zs" look like confusing baking measurements. 

Edited June 14, 2016 by The Nal

[big__phil]

5 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

GFS got a big update in January as well. Traditionally I've not trusted it as much as the European models (UKMO, ECMWY, yr.no), but it will be interesting to see if it has improved.

On the ensembles, you can see where there's a certainty of rain, or where only a few runs show it (there are 20 runs in the ensemble):

GRAPH!!

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, devonhammer said:

GFS got a big update in January as well. Traditionally I've not trusted it as much as the European models (UKMO, ECMWY, yr.no), but it will be interesting to see if it has improved.

On the ensembles, you can see where there's a certainty of rain, or where only a few runs show it (there are 20 runs in the ensemble):

Yeh, I didn't realise the GFS has been upgraded - like you say ECMWF has always been the best IMO, but that can always change! I know some have commented on the GFS having very good agreement after the upgrade out to about day 8. 

Based on what I've seen so far I think we may know a lot more after todays 12z runs. If I was going out on a limb I'd say rain Tuesday/Wednesday looks likely at the moment. After that I'm hoping it will become more settled but it's not clear at the moment.

[Wooderson]

Easty whats the weather like in Manch. Need an update asap.

[Wooderson]

Late arrivers - avoid the bottom of Pennards Hill please. Stay north of the railway kids.

[richy24]

24 minutes ago, djcolsen said:

I've found if you search for the weather in Malaga you get a lot more positive outlook... Although may turn up to Pilton grossly under prepared

I was in Malaga this weekend, it was 36 degrees! Trust me you would not want that heat!

[big__phil]

1 minute ago, Wooderson said:

Late arrivers - avoid the bottom of Pennards Hill please. Stay north of the railway kids.

That's all staff and crew camping these days anyway. Anywhere a bit up that (or any) hill should be fine.

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Based on what I've seen so far I think we may know a lot more after todays 12z runs. If I was going out on a limb I'd say rain Tuesday/Wednesday looks likely at the moment. After that I'm hoping it will become more settled but it's not clear at the moment.

The 06Z is now showing the opposite. Dry Tues & Weds then unsettled in to the weekend.

 

[dexydexy]

15 minutes ago, big__phil said:

GRAPH!!

But what does it MEAN?!

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, JoeyT said:

The 06Z is now showing the opposite. Dry Tues & Weds then unsettled in to the weekend.

 

Yes, just seen it. On the one hand we have an improvement with the initial unsettled weather pushed further North on Wednesday...but then eventually it turns fairly unsettled. Interested to see what the ensembles look like!

[jeffie]

23 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Yeah, anything further ahead than 3 days - ie this Friday - isn't reliable at all with regard to rainfall and anything further ahead than 5 days isn't isn't reliable at all with regard to temperature. 

So we could get this

 

Or we could get this

 

Just as well I understand pictures of raindrops and sun because I've no idea what an "operational run" means, haven't a fucking clue what an "ensemble" is, wouldn't know a "GFS" if it slapped me in the face and "00zs" and "06zs" look like confusing baking measurements. 

Knowing the UK, we could get this

[Lucyjane83]

I love and hate this thread in equal measures 

[bennyhana22]

14 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Yes, just seen it. On the one hand we have an improvement with the initial unsettled weather pushed further North on Wednesday...but then eventually it turns fairly unsettled. Interested to see what the ensembles look like!

I hope they come soon, as @The Nal is getting mightily impatient to see them! Ooooh, he loves an ensemble.

Ben

[Wooderson]

One of the all-time great Glasters photos.

[eastynh]

32 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Easty whats the weather like in Manch. Need an update asap.

Typical really. Light rain, overcast and quite mild. Perfect bbq weather.

[The Nal]

Yr weather showing biblical amounts of rain on Wednesday/Thursday. Fucking biblical. 

[eastynh]

7 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Yr weather showing biblical amounts of rain on Wednesday/Thursday. Fucking biblical. 

To be fair I reckon the exagerated a bit when they wrote the bible. 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

Time to start praising the Countryfile gods. All hail. we are not Worthy.

[scaryclaireyfairy]

Oh  Yeah.  There's the doom.  It looked much nicer earlier.