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Weather 2016


Keithy

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I honestly don't know what everyone is getting so stressed about.  We've got a couple of days of rain ahead of the weekend, that's all.  Funny how the same people who always say you can't predict the weather are the ones screaming it'll be a mudbath :P

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53 minutes ago, Tanzwut said:

Let the battles of the pressures begin! 

john-anderson.jpg 

High pressure are you ready?! Low pressure are you ready?!

High pressure you will go on my first whistle...

Low pressure you will go on my second whistle!

3....2....1..... GO!

I just hope it doesn't work like this:

 

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It's not looking great, but there does appear to be a few dry days coming up that are going to be quite warm and windy, so hopefully that'll dry things up on site.

I don't think it's going to be 2007 wet, but It could turn out to be a 2008/2011 kind of affair.

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Just now, mr flow said:

It's not looking great, but there does appear to be a few dry days coming up that are going to be quite warm and windy, so hopefully that'll dry things up on site.

I don't think it's going to be 2007 wet, but It could turn out to be a 2008/2011 kind of affair.

I agree. With traders coming on site to set up on Sunday onwards if sat / sun can be dry it'll help.

All the extra vehicles on site from Sunday means dry weather at the weekend is needed!

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As a Bristol resident, I can confirm the weather in the South West this morning has been grime, but over the last hour the clouds have started to break up and the Sun seems like he will be making an appearance, you can tell from the site webcam that the skies to the west are looking brighter and clearer as well. None of this makes a difference to next weeks weather, but 'a day of forecasted rain' doesn't necessarily mean that the ground will be left as mush. We all know its too early to tell anyway!

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Just now, Thunderstruck said:

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

What does that mean in English? Dont understand any of that apart from the last half of the last sentence. 

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2 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

 

Sweet!

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It's possible that right now, a week out, the systems would be fairly stable and we'd be able to accurately predict what the weather would be with 80% confidence or so.

They're not.

We've not no bloody clue. Multiple fronts, either could become dominant or we could get stuck in the middle.

I always find it weird that weather forecasts never contain a confidence interval. Essentially forecasts with 30% confidence are presented with the same authority as those with 90% confidence. Which really confuses conversations like this.

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6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

It's possible that right now, a week out, the systems would be fairly stable and we'd be able to accurately predict what the weather would be with 80% confidence or so.

They're not.

We've not no bloody clue. Multiple fronts, either could become dominant or we could get stuck in the middle.

I always find it weird that weather forecasts never contain a confidence interval. Essentially forecasts with 30% confidence are presented with the same authority as those with 90% confidence. Which really confuses conversations like this.

That's how I see it too.  @Thunderstruck would you agree?

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12 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

 

*clicks on link, gets confused, closes page, goes back to weather page for explanation*

 

So.....better?

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