Weather 2016

[nban2010]

The BBC and Weather.com and Worldweatheronline and Metcheck is glorious.

Accuweather and yr.no is a wet mess.

Basically it's all either way still.

[big__phil]

2 minutes ago, nban2010 said:

The BBC and Weather.com and Worldweatheronline and Metcheck is glorious.

Accuweather and yr.no is a wet mess.

Basically it's all either way still.

So....more rainbows?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Keithy said:

You might want to look at Pilton rather than Castle Cary.........

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7301403/long.html

Pilton

 

Castle Cary

 

Pilton 12.6mm over 3 days with dry spells

Castle Cary 16.1mm over 3 days with almost constant rain/drizzle

 

 

A punch in the face rather than a kick.

[fur_q]

2 hours ago, DeanoL said:

 

I always find it weird that weather forecasts never contain a confidence interval. Essentially forecasts with 30% confidence are presented with the same authority as those with 90% confidence. Which really confuses conversations like this.

I spoke to a Met Office meteorologist about this last year at Green Man. Apparently the Met Office tried this but the public really didn't like as the vast majority just didn't have a clue what a confidence interval was or what it meant, so they stopped. Unfortunately the general public's level of numeracy is very low and most people just want a picture of a raindrop or a sun. 

[The Nal]

Its all his fault

 

[devonhammer]

9 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Its all his fault

 

As long as he's not on NetWeather...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

[MEGABOWL]

2 hours ago, DeanoL said:

It's possible that right now, a week out, the systems would be fairly stable and we'd be able to accurately predict what the weather would be with 80% confidence or so.

They're not.

We've not no bloody clue. Multiple fronts, either could become dominant or we could get stuck in the middle.

I always find it weird that weather forecasts never contain a confidence interval. Essentially forecasts with 30% confidence are presented with the same authority as those with 90% confidence. Which really confuses conversations like this.

They do in Aviation forecasts but will only give a 30 or 40 per cent probability. That's how exact a science it is. Thing is the Prob 40's are almost always right.

[lebenski]

 

 

Looks decent

 

Edited June 14, 2016 by lebenski

[djdavejohnson]

33 minutes ago, Keithy said:

You might want to look at Pilton rather than Castle Cary.........

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7301403/long.html

Pilton

 

Castle Cary

 

Pilton 12.6mm over 3 days with dry spells

Castle Cary 16.1mm over 3 days with almost constant rain/drizzle

 

 

Please accept my apologies as I don't follow this thread too religiously, but how can a weather forecaster predict 8-9 days in advance to that accuracy, different forecasts, in two places, only 10 miles apart?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, djdavejohnson said:

Please accept my apologies as I don't follow this thread too religiously, but how can a weather forecaster predict 8-9 days in advance to that accuracy, different forecasts, in two places, only 10 miles apart?

They cannot

[Peroni]

look we obviously choose to believe the ones that are good and the ones which are bad we discount... last time I dipped in, we were looking at heatwave...

 

[djdavejohnson]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

They cannot

For a minute there I thought I'd been missing out on some essential info.

I'm packing next Monday night so will check back in here then! :P 

[devonhammer]

17 minutes ago, djdavejohnson said:

Please accept my apologies as I don't follow this thread too religiously, but how can a weather forecaster predict 8-9 days in advance to that accuracy, different forecasts, in two places, only 10 miles apart?

Stop with this crazy talk!!!

You'll be saying that we can't predict Saturday's Lottery numbers next.

Disclaimer: You can't accurately predict the weather more than three days out and certainly not to an accuracy of 10 miles.

[djdavejohnson]

5 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

Stop with this crazy talk!!!

You'll be saying that we can't predict Saturday's Lottery numbers next.

Disclaimer: You can't accurately predict the weather more than three days out and certainly not to an accuracy of 10 miles.

Unless there's a huge pressure system (again I beg forgiveness here as I am no expert in weather related phenomena) but I would argue that the weather cannot be predicted accurately within 3 days of the festival. I swear the last few years each time I've checked on the Tues/Weds for the next few days, it's never been right! 

I prefer to trust my instincts - step out the tent, look up at the sky, lick a finger and stick it in the air. Pack the raincoat into day bag if deemed necessary. 

Then pick 6 numbers for Saturday. No chance with a lucky dip though.

[stuartbert two hats]

 

[FuzzyDunlop]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

I suspect hat will be every bit as much an anomaly as the "biblical floods" of earlier.

Either way we are fucked. Whether its floods or all cook to death.

No middle ground this year

[Titters]

On the equivalent day last year, all the forecasts were pointing to a wet festival - more rain than 09, 11 and 13 - and there was PANIC:

Skip to page 70.

This is back when the Nal refused to accept anything other than wall to wall sunshine was being forecast.

Times change.

[bigfurbdogg]

1 hour ago, The Nal said:

What does it say? Looks like a shit map of Europe thats been scribbled on by Helen Keller. 

 

Hes been an inpatient in Broadmoor for decades and only has limited access to the outside world based on good behaviour. However this year he injected boiling water into his grandmothers skull. Heres the last known picture of him.

I love your descriptions of Jackone, the poor bloke, i do hope he isn't reading them. Although no doubt you'll tell me he can't when he's in solitary confinement, locked up in Broadmoor. 

[The Nal]

32 minutes ago, Titters said:

On the equivalent day last year, all the forecasts were pointing to a wet festival - more rain than 09, 11 and 13 - and there was PANIC:

Skip to page 70.

This is back when the Nal refused to accept anything other than wall to wall sunshine was being forecast.

Times change.

They don't you know!

Wasn't far off either.

[parsonjack]

BBC now showing no rain after Thursday this week.....

 

[Cooter]

Beebs Pilton and BA4 postcode is much the same too.

[RickW]

6 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

BBC now showing no rain after Thursday this week.....

 

That's because we have just had all the rain in one go! Thundering now.... Let's get it out the way this week.

[Nobody Interesting]

2 hours ago, Keithy said:

You might want to look at Pilton rather than Castle Cary.........

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7301403/long.html

Pilton

 

Castle Cary

 

Pilton 12.6mm over 3 days with dry spells

Castle Cary 16.1mm over 3 days with almost constant rain/drizzle

 

 

Are you sure you are looking at the right Pilton - what I see is very different on Weds and Thurs.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Edit - You are looking at the wrong Pilton I am afraid.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Nobody Interesting

[Keithy]

35 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Are you sure you are looking at the right Pilton - what I see is very different on Weds and Thurs.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Edit - You are looking at the wrong Pilton I am afraid.

Good point 

[SwedgeAntilles]

Next year this should definitely be renamed the "Shit Map of Europe Scribbled on by Helen Keller thread 2017"