Weather 2016

[gorfield]

10 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Looking at the GFS high res I actually think Wednesday look showery with spells of sunshine - maxes around 19c, which will feel warm.

Thursday max 21c warm spells of sunshine and showers but mainly dry. 

Friday max 23c warm spells of sunshine small chance of showers but mainly dry

 

STICK

[Wooderson]

Good craic from accuweather.

[devonhammer]

Run down of the main forecasts that I look at:

Summary

There's low pressure to the North West  and high to the South West. We're on the edge, so it could go either way. The models are generally in agreement that the rain will clear this weekend and hopefully give the ground time to recover from this week. For the festival itself there's definitely a risk of showers. There's a chance of fine weather throughout (but not too hot i.e. perfect), but there's also a chance of more persistent rain. If I was betting on it now, I'd say that there will be a few showers, but no washout.

GFS

Dry on Thu-Sun of festival, but could be pretty muddy underfoot as there's rain this week, followed by rain on Mon-Wed of festival week. On the edge of a high and low, so could go either way.

GFS Ensemble

Rain this Friday and some rain next Tuesday is consistent with pretty much every run, but after that it's all to play for. Showers, not a washout.

TWO

Rain today, tomorrow, some rain next Monday and then dry.

Meteox

Not yet in range. Mixed run up.

WeatherCast

Rain clearing at the weekend and then showers.

Met Office

"On Sunday starting dry and bright in the southeast. Outbreaks of rain across the northwest will gradually push across all parts through Sunday and into the start of the week. The remainder of the week will continue unsettled and often windy with bands of rain pushing east, these interspersed with brighter, though showery conditions and the best of any drier weather in the east. Into the weekend and following week it will remain unsettled with the most frequent spells of rain across northwestern parts and generally drier and brighter in the southwest. Temperatures will be near normal, though feeling cooler in spells of rain. Where there is any drier and sunnier weather it will feel warmer than of late. "

ECM

Only goes out to Wednesday of festival week. Persistent rain.

YR.NO

Only goes to Friday morning of festival week. Rain this week, dry from Fri-Wed, a bit of rain on Thursday and shower on Thursday night.

Edited June 15, 2016 by devonhammer

[Wooderson]

Norwegians have smarted up their act this morning however. At least for the first few days this is close to perfect.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, devonhammer said:

Run down of the main forecasts that I look at:

Summary

There's low pressure to the North West  and high to the South West. We're on the edge, so it could go either way. The models are generally in agreement that the rain will clear this weekend and hopefully give the ground time to recover from this week. For the festival itself there's definitely a risk of showers. There's a chance of fine weather throughout (but not too hot i.e. perfect), but there's also a chance of more persistent rain. If I was betting on it now, I'd say that there will be a few showers, but no washout.

GFS

Dry on Thu-Sun of festival, but could be pretty muddy underfoot as there's rain this week, followed by rain on Mon-Wed of festival week. On the edge of a high and low, so could go either way.

GFS Ensemble

Rain this Friday and some rain next Tuesday is consistent with pretty much every run, but after that it's all to play for. Showers, not a washout.

TWO

Rain today, tomorrow, some rain next Monday and then dry.

Meteox

Not yet in range. Mixed run up.

WeatherCast

Rain clearing at the weekend and then showers.

Met Office

"On Sunday starting dry and bright in the southeast. Outbreaks of rain across the northwest will gradually push across all parts through Sunday and into the start of the week. The remainder of the week will continue unsettled and often windy with bands of rain pushing east, these interspersed with brighter, though showery conditions and the best of any drier weather in the east. Into the weekend and following week it will remain unsettled with the most frequent spells of rain across northwestern parts and generally drier and brighter in the southwest. Temperatures will be near normal, though feeling cooler in spells of rain. Where there is any drier and sunnier weather it will feel warmer than of late. "

ECM

Only goes out to Wednesday of festival week. Persistent rain.

YR.NO

Only goes to Friday morning of festival week. Rain this week, dry from Fri-Wed, a bit of rain on Thursday and shower on Thursday night.

Just to add the ECMWF now runs to 00Z Saturday. Looks promising with warm spells of sunshine and showers, possibly heavy and thundery I guess...but I'm happy at the moment!!

[Spindles]

Cheers for your efforts Devonhammer.  Those forecasts are exactly how I am seeing the picture myself (based on nothing more than looking at met office imagery and my experience of June weather).  All this wall to wall rain nonsense is just hyperbole.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, Spindles said:

Cheers for your efforts Devonhammer.  Those forecasts are exactly how I am seeing the picture myself (based on nothing more than looking at met office imagery and my experience of June weather).  All this wall to wall rain nonsense is just hyperbole.

Absolutely, nothing to suggest wall to wall rain at the moment.

[WS_Jack_III]

Basically it's on the edge and could go either way.

[nban2010]

3 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Norwegians have smarted up their act this morning however. At least for the first few days this is close to perfect.

YES. Keep it going...

[bennyhana22]

6 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Norwegians have smarted up their act this morning however. At least for the first few days this is close to perfect.

Whilst I dream of a totally dry five days, I'd take a stickety-stick on this atm...

Norway FTW.

Ben

[SwedgeAntilles]

It's a game of two halves. 

[devonhammer]

7 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Just to add the ECMWF now runs to 00Z Saturday. Looks promising with warm spells of sunshine and showers, possibly heavy and thundery I guess...but I'm happy at the moment!!

 

Oops. The ECM was just a copy and paste. Page was taking ages to load, so went on to the next one and forgot to go back. My bad.

[big__phil]

Looking pretty decent generally then. Keep up the fine work everyone.

Welcome back @pedmills - it's great to see your graphs again! For the sake of context, do you still have last year's? I seem to remember that changed dramatically in the week approaching the festival.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, devonhammer said:

 

Oops. The ECM was just a copy and paste. Page was taking ages to load, so went on to the next one and forgot to go back. My bad.

No worries! The ECM mean has just come out too, much improved from 12z yesterday. Very promising trend at the moment, lets keep it up!

[Spindles]

2 hours ago, bennyhana22 said:

On my way home from work yesterday, and to work today, the lashing down was at levels that would produce a 2007, I reckon!

Yet I'm in the next town over and we had a handful of extremely light showers over the last couple of days.  We've got some light rain at the moment and I'd expect some intermittent heavy showers over the next couple of days, then I reckon we are through it.  Just goes to show how tricky it really is to predict the weather in a very localised area, since 2 people 10 miles apart can have quite different experiences, particularly in June.

[Stretlow]

Can anyone already on site who follows this forum shed any light on how the actual site is holding up so far?

[Spindles]

Asking the right questions.  I'm hoping for some site snaps, or even a 2011 style comical ali video.

Edited June 15, 2016 by Spindles

[CaledonianGonzo]

There's probably an extent to which it doesn't really matter at the minute. 

It's the time it has available to dry between what hits this week and the gates opening on Wednesday that will make a difference.

[Larraht]

11 minutes ago, Stretlow said:

Can anyone already on site who follows this forum shed any light on how the actual site is holding up so far?

West Holts stage wrote this on their facebook page in response to someone asking a similar question this morning:

'Damp but they're trying to keep vehicles off the grass as much as possible and hopefully it will dry out next week'. 

So they are looking out for us!

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

There's probably an extent to which it doesn't really matter at the minute. 

It's the time it has available to dry between what hits this week and the gates opening on Wednesday that will make a difference.

 

I'm keeping an eye on the high res webcam. There's a crossroads at the cider bus corner of the Pyramid field. Yesterday there was standing water. Today it's dry.

[jparx]

It really is squeaky bum time.

I'm finding it hard to remain positive with the state of the current weather, but I just keep thinking how unlikely it is we'll get almost 2 1/2 weeks straight of this weather. It must come good soon.

[big__phil]

3 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

 

I'm keeping an eye on the high res webcam. There's a crossroads at the cider bus corner of the Pyramid field. Yesterday there was standing water. Today it's dry.

Cheers for the link, that's loads better than the webcam! Does it auto-update?

[devonhammer]

3 minutes ago, big__phil said:

Cheers for the link, that's loads better than the webcam! Does it auto-update?

No - Hit F5.

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, big__phil said:

Cheers for the link, that's loads better than the webcam! Does it auto-update?

You have to hit refresh manually, but it's always the latest image in the same URL.

[Nobody Interesting]

At 3 minutes is the bit we need to see.

All the BBC indications seem to show that the high is sticking around over the south west!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36534591