Are we In or Out?

[Spindles]

Ah well, you're entitled to your opinion, however you chose to state it.  Personally mine is that the referendum wasn't as a result of any public call, but as a result of decades of Tory infighting to settle the question.

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

In Scotland, where even the cats and dogs wear badges expressing their impeccable left-ish credentials if you believe the local myths, they won't even pay 1% when it comes with an absolute guarantee of being money for Scotland because that's how left wing they are.

Correct. I'm from Scotland, but I do wonder when people there are going to accept some responsibility- they were offered independence, voted against it then had the cheek to swing to the snp once it was safely no longer an option so they could go back to pretending people in England are the cause of all their woes.

They then complained about austerity but when given the option to raise taxes and spending in the recent election, rejected it and voted overwhelmingly in favour of the party that likes to complain and blame but not actually do anything about it.

[eFestivals]

13 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Ah well, you're entitled to your opinion, however you chose to state it.  Personally mine is that the referendum wasn't as a result of any public call, but as a result of decades of Tory infighting to settle the question.

I don't disagree that we're only having it because of tory in-fighting.

But that doesn't alter the fact that 'the people' wanted it whether or not there was that tory in-fighting, and in a democracy that counts for something ... else we don't have a democracy.

Plenty of the same people delivering the same line as yours are exactly the same people who think the UK should have a PR electoral system, too - which only gets to show the poor levels and disconnect of their own thinking.

I'm personally no particular fan of referendums because you're likely to have poorly informed people making bad &/or disconnected judgements within the full context of everything - such as with Switzerland's recent "no free movement" referendum that made no consideration of what that free movement has been exchanged for - but that doesn't mean I think the only path for democracy is within a structured parliamentary process defined by politicians for their benefit rather than for everyone.

Democracy isn't only about having the votes you think you can win.

Edited June 8, 2016 by eFestivals

[Gnomicide]

Is the Ryder Cup before the vote? That'll help, it's the only time you see people waving EU flags.

[JamieKThomas]

12 hours ago, majormajormajor said:

The audience seemed to be pro-Leave. It's almost all about immigration, but 50% of migration into the UK is from outside the EU. Why isn't this being hammered home by the Remain camp? It's absurd.

I actually thought Farage was given a much harder time when it come down to being interrupted or asked questions. I mean really one of the questions was essentially "You're racist" to which Farage replies "No I'm not" and then the woman says "Yes you are".

 

It was an absolute piss poor event from ITV, the Sky shows with Cameron and Gove were much better because they both had an hour of time to talk and explain their thoughts. It's completely pointless when each person has less than 30 minutes and usually less than 1 minute to answer an unbelievably complex question. 

 

But the Times has Farage at 80% as being the best last night after 35,000 votes and the Guardian has Farage at 40% and Cameron at 28%. 

[fightoffyour]

18 hours ago, hfuhruhurr said:

This debate is fascinating - one thing, people make emotional and not logical decisions. The key is to figure out the basic emotions that are driving the leavers (I'm in, I'm so so IN!!) to passionately defend a position that logically makes no sense at all.

I cannot for the life of me figure out the cognitive polyphasia going on with the leavers.

On each key point, they are faced with facts but completely discount them - but amazingly, this is wining so many votes.

Economy
Logic says - along with pretty much all the UK/global authorities - the UK would suffer
Emotion says "we're Great Britain, we had an empire, we can conquer the world, we're fab" and so exit wins

Immigration
Logic says it's a complete an utter balls up on a global scale. With communication and travel becoming available to all, with regimes knackered and wars, people move, with economic imbalance people move. There's no easy solution. The UK wanted 10s of thousands, we got 350k, half of which are non-EU. It's a broken system. Economically, immigration is fabulous for this country, culturally, it's our lifeblood.
Emotion says - we're an island, we can keep them out, they won't steal our jobs any more. I'm all right jack.

Sovereignty
No one has the first clue what this really is.
Logic - the EU has democratic and legal structures that have more accountability and more hoops to jump through than the UK's system. The UK's system make undemocratic decisions all the time (tuition fees, fox hunting, academies, fracking)
Emotion - we don't want Brussels telling us what to do. And that somehow trumps logic

The cost of the EU
Logic - we put in about 0.4% of GDP, pretty much every other EU country puts in 0.7%. Now, can you account for, or do you worry about 0.4% of your earnings? No.
Emotion - £350m/week we could spend on the NHS

The Brexiteers
Farage,  Johnson, Gove, IDM ...
Consider the people who are in - basically every economist, every scientist, nearly all world leaders, all the trade unions, nearly all the captains of industry.
Logically, you go with people you respect and admire
Emotionally - Is your value system aligned with these people? I'd rather have a pint with them than Gideon.... oh no.

And finally, do you honestly believe:
1) If the economy goes tits up, you'll be fine? Were you in the last recession?
2) If we get extra money from leaving it will be spent on services or given away as a tax cut (bear in mind, these conservatives will want to win an election and they know lower taxes is the way)

We're in real danger of an exit, and there's absolutely no way to reverse the decision - cock it up and we're knackered.

Please brexit people, put the emotions on hold and read the logic.

Can I share this post (e.g. facebook) if I feel like it coming up to the referendum? It's a brilliant summary

[p.pete]

2 hours ago, Spindles said:

Ah well, you're entitled to your opinion, however you chose to state it.  Personally mine is that the referendum wasn't as a result of any public call, but as a result of decades of Tory infighting to settle the question.

A recent Labour election autopsy (link) seems to show 'Europe' being a big issue for people not voting for Labour or giving their vote to conservatives.  Part of that must have been because tories were promising an EU referendum (hey! they've kept a promise!).  

[jeffie]

"Borrowed". but succinct, if emotive, but hell it's all been emotive shit anyway.

If you know anyone who is considering voting for Brexit (and I sincerely hope you don't), please point out to them that, thanks to the law of unintended consequences, a vote for Brexit has a 99% certainty of also being a vote for the following:

1. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister - our very own, better-educated, answer to Donald Trump!
2. Scotland leaving the United Kingdom in order to remain in ...the EU.
3. A three-year recession in the UK.
4. Uncontained delight for Donald Trump, Rupert Murdoch, Kim Jong-un, ISIS, the Taliban, and all other enemies of democracy.
5. A huge setback for the West as whole, and for its slow progress towards peace and stability since 1945.
6. A collapse in the pound: which will mean no more European holidays for most British people, and high inflation at home.
7. All those retired British people in Spain being sent home (or being forced home by the weak pound and lack of access to healthcare), where they will be a drain on the UK health care system instead of the Spanish one.
8. London's Polish builders all going to Germany (see point 6), and leaving us to contend with British builders.
9. No change in net immigration figures: since, in order to gain access to the EU single market, neighbouring nations also have to accept free movement of labour. There's no chance of the UK being granted an exception.
10. The final collapse of British farming, as EU subsidies are withdrawn, and promises to replace them from Westminster are not honoured.

And then ask them to consider, whether it is worth enduring this outcome, in order to express their disgruntlement over immigration policy and EU bureaucracy?

[p.pete]

7 minutes ago, jeffie said:

2. Scotland leaving the United Kingdom in order to remain in ...the EU.

I heard this week Northern Ireland is polling as the most pro-EU area?  I'd assume if the vote is close in Scotland then that point would be weak, could be interesting if there's a strong Remain vote though.

Great list, I will borrow too

[hfuhruhurr]

20 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Can I share this post (e.g. facebook) if I feel like it coming up to the referendum? It's a brilliant summary

Sure - more than happy - and thanks!

[___S_o_m_a__]

10 minutes ago, jeffie said:

"Borrowed". but succinct, if emotive, but hell it's all been emotive shit anyway.

6. A collapse in the pound: which will mean no more European holidays for most British people, and high inflation at home.

8. London's Polish builders all going to Germany (see point 6), and leaving us to contend with British builders.
 

Oh no we wouldn't want to have to contend with British builders!

[jeffie]

4 minutes ago, ___S_o_m_a__ said:

Oh no we wouldn't want to have to contend with British builders!

Well have you ever had too.......

[p.pete]

6 minutes ago, jeffie said:

Well have you ever had too.......

We've tried to - they don't give us much of an opportunity

[giantkatestacks]

My council say that they are posting my postal vote form on the 15th June? I think they might be taking the piss - they have had the application for weeks and weeks.

[phillyfaddle]

48 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Sure - more than happy - and thanks!

+1 - I think it's excellent and would like to share.

My heart sinks every time I see people from the Leave camp on Facebook stating "facts" about the EU that are either not true, or grotesque over-simplifcations of the truth. Here's just two examples:

1) "Tata moved the production of Land Rover Defenders to India because of new EU regulations on emissions". NOT TRUE - the EU did indeed bring in new regulation in 2007 on emissions and side-facing rear seats. However, the key reason for Tata moving LRD production to India is that the vehicles were generally poor quality and no longer met USA compliance regulations! The loss of the VAST USA market meant that it became too expensive to continue to produce the vehicles in the UK for export to the Asian markets, so they moved production to India where costs are obviously much lower.

2) "Peugeot shut down the Ryton plant because they received an EU handout to move production to Slovakia". NOT TRUE - the reasons for Ryton's demise are various and complex (excellent analysis by Autocar from 2007 if you're so inclined http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/analysis-why-ryton-closing), not least due to execrable decisions by its various owners, dating back to the 1960's.

There are many other examples. People (on both sides - but the Brexiters are worse) are fond of quoting simple statements which appeal to their prior-formed biases/emotional responses, so they don't bother verifying anything. Mind you, who's really got the time.....apart from me?! LOL

[MEGABOWL]

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

In Scotland, where even the cats and dogs wear badges expressing their impeccable left-ish credentials if you believe the local myths, they won't even pay 1% when it comes with an absolute guarantee of being money for Scotland because that's how left wing they are.

As an Englishman living in Scotland, not only is that an entirely accurate representation of the mythology but I snorted laughing so hard a bit of my brew came out of my nose. Cheers Neil.

[incident]

1 hour ago, jeffie said:

10. The final collapse of British farming, as EU subsidies are withdrawn, and promises to replace them from Westminster are not honoured.

And on a related note, a significant hit to all major UK universities who would lose access to EU Research funding which currently comprises a large chunk of their budgets - about 20% of the budget where I work.

[shoptildrop]

On 07/06/2016 at 9:50 AM, paulmuchmore said:

I really don't get the claims of fearmongering on the remain side.

People say they want the facts, they're given them, a lot of them from independent bodies. But apparently pointing these out counts as a campaign of fear.

it's the leave side that are making up and misrepresenting facts. Yet this is completely ignored by many. Probably because all that matters to them is that "80 million Turks" are supposedly coming to take over our country.

or stunning revelation from Farage that all women would be at risk of sexual attacks by north African immigrants ...I actually could not believe that headline when I saw it!!

I'm leaning towards in rather than out as I am not seeing the business / economic benefits / subsides that exist outside being an EU partner... EU original was set up to deal with trade movement and buying power benefits, yes it's become more than that but that key foundation of its purpose to me is why I am leaning to stay in

[clarkete]

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There's long been a majority of people in the country who've wanted this referendum.

Neil, you misspelt "vocal and annoying minority".

Hope that helps  

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, clarkete said:

Neil, you misspelt "vocal and annoying minority".

Hope that helps  

nope, unfacts never help, unfortunately. Not even when the facts are inconvenient.

[clarkete]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

nope, unfacts never help, unfortunately. Not even when the facts are inconvenient.

Anything to back up your "theory"?

I would have thought the number of votes cast for UKIP, plus say a third of the tory votes cast would still be a clear minority and that's being very generous to them. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, clarkete said:

Anything to back up your "theory"?

20+ years of opinion polls that I paid attention to and.... some obviously didn't?

It's impossible to find them with ease in the middle of that exact thing happening.

 

2 minutes ago, clarkete said:

I would have thought the number of votes cast for UKIP, plus say a third of the tory votes cast would still be a clear minority and that's being very generous to them. 
 

are elections single issue votes? Or do you perhaps end up with stuff like supporters of world socialism  voting for the very not-socialism of Labour?

Was it only the out-ers who wanted a vote, or might some others have wanted one in the hope it might shut the small minds up?

Etc, etc, etc.

Anyway, get back to me only if you can be bothered with the googling to find a listing of the many polls done on the subject.

[Thevorpalblade]

I'm happy for the people of Latvia to tell me what to do. I'm in.

[Spindles]

2 hours ago, giantkatestacks said:

My council say that they are posting my postal vote form on the 15th June? I think they might be taking the piss - they have had the application for weeks and weeks.

Mine said they were posting mine on the 13th, it arrived yesterday and was in the postbox on the way to work.  Hopefully yours, like mine, are giving the latest date it could be in order to under-promise and over-deliver.

[Jennylucky]

There seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about June 23rd, and people want to know the facts. Here are some:

You are not voting to leave the EEA or WTO, meaning all of the UK's trade and benefit agreements will remain unchanged should we leave, until such a time that the UK decides to renegotiate them for any reason.

You are not voting to leave NATO, meaning our security agreements remain unchanged. Should we receive an act of hostility from a non-NATO member, then NATO countries are obliged to come to our assistance. This does not change.

You are not voting to leave the UN, G8 or G20, meaning Britain will have the same voice on the world stage as it does today.

You are not voting to leave Europe!! The UK will still, geographically, be part of Europe. Non political organisations aligned to Europe will still extend membership to the UK (I.e. sports governing bodies, and so on).

You are not voting to stop recognising Interpol, Europol and neither are you voting for SIS / MI6 to stop dealing with other intelligence services in the fight against terrorism and global, organised crime.

You are not voting against being able to travel to Europe, contrary to the belief of some fools recently on TV. The UK has always maintained stricter border and passport controls than many EU members. This will not change. You will still use a passport to go on holiday and you will still be allowed entry to countries in Europe. You may even get chance to skip queues by using the non--EU queues at the airport (the only point so far that is my opinion, and not necessarily a fact).

The UK economy will benefit to the tune of £billions in the first year after we leave.

Medical and science research will not simply stop. The UK pays into the EU to then get money back in the form of funding. The UK will now be in control of this money and can choose to fund whatever UK based medical, science, art or other research it chooses.

Farming will not lose money because of EU funding being cut. The UK negotiated a rebate of some monies that the UK pays to the EU, in order to subsidise UK farmers. Instead of asking for our money back, we can give it straight to farmers. No change there.

You are not voting against human rights. The EU Convention on, and European Court of Human Rights are not part of the EU. Until parliament passes a new bill of rights for the UK, these will still apply, as will precedents already passed down to UK courts from Brussels.

You are not voting to kick anyone out of the UK or block access to anyone. Neither are you voting to stop recruiting valuable European workers into things like the NHS. Like my other point about passports for travel, the UK is already outside of the Schengen zone and so migrant workers must enter the UK with a valid passport before and after June 23rd. That will not change. British borders maintain full control of who comes and goes. Should someone have the skills to apply to work in the NHS, then they will still be permitted travel and given an opportunity to apply for a job. Worst case, points based assessment, like the US, Canada and Australia use, will come into effect. The UK is likely to negotiate freedom of labour movement though, in exchange for freedom of goods movement.

You are not voting to move jobs nor production out of the UK! The EU actually helped fund the move of Ford Transit production from the UK to Turkey... Yes, the EU helped give UK jobs to people in Turkey by giving Ford a loan of £80m with very generous terms!

What you are voting for is UK sovereignty. You are voting to stay in or leave a political union of leaders and representatives that you British people did not elect. You are voting against a commission of unelected, elite men that nobody at all voted for and yet they make decisions on our behalf. You are simply voting to bring sovereignty back to Westminster, and that is all. If you worry about that because you don't like the Conservative government, look at the reality. Their majority in parliament is very slim. They have been blocked on big decisions already. You are therefore not giving sovereignty to David Cameron, but to the UK House of elected representatives. Do not be fooled by the fear campaigns that are simply run by the wealthy, who need EU money to thrive! Think about the future, and your family's future.