Are we In or Out?

[RichardWaller]

7 minutes ago, dooke10 said:

In my opinion the biggest problem IN has had it that it underestimated the countries disfranchisement with the EU project and didn't ease those concerns early enough. This decision is not black or white either way and its felt, to me, that with scaremongering that went on and not 'selling' the EU as it could have done has really hindered IN. The public lost all trust in Cameron and the like.

Its says a lot when Boris and Farage sound more trustworthy than Cameron or Osbourne and I honestly believe they do.

I will still be voting IN but I have a feeling it could go now. Leave will need a decent lead in the final poll to counter the standard 'status quo' shift that will happen late.

You've just made me think actually... I wonder what our future role in the EU will be if we do Remain after we've been flirting with separation. If my wife caught me on Match.com or whatever, I'd be in the doghouse.

[the wonderwhy]

Here's a question for outies, which I'm quite interested in because it concerns me & my peers and hasn't been addressed at all so far by either campagain... 

Given that 75% of young people support remain, if we vote for Brexit, are you not worried about a huge loss of skilled/potentially skilled young people moving abroad to either study or work because they'd rather live in a country that's inside the EU? 

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, MattDavies__ said:

Here's a question for outies, which I'm quite interested in because it concerns me & my peers and hasn't been addressed at all so far by either campagain... 

Given that 75% of young people support remain, if we vote for Brexit, are you not worried about a huge loss of skilled/potentially skilled young people moving abroad to either study or work because they'd rather live in a country that's inside the EU? 

I'm not an outer, but....

Have you noticed the young people's unemployment rate in much of the Eurozone...?

I can see where you're coming from with the question, but I think the current state of the world makes it somewhat irrelevant.

[DeanoL]

10 hours ago, Junglist1981 said:

In the past couple of weeks the polls have only been going one way. Loads of people I speak to are voting out.

I think we'll see a response to that though. A few weeks ago Remain had it sewed up which, weirdly, meant a lot of remainers were not going to bother voting. People are less likely to go out and vote to keep the status quo. That was, essentially, the scenario the Leave-ers were counting on. If the narrative changes in the press to the point that it really looks like Leave is the most likely result, then suddenly that gets flipped and the Leave folk become more complacent with the Remain folk more likely to vote.

I genuinely think that there are more people in favour of Remain, probably by around 60-40. But far more of the Leaver-ers belong to demographics more likely to vote.

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

I genuinely think that there are more people in favour of Remain, probably by around 60-40. But far more of the Leaver-ers belong to demographics more likely to vote.

As far as I'm aware (it was certainly true 2 days ago) none of the polls that are giving the lead to out have so far polled a greater number of out-ers than in-ers.

Out is ahead in those polls because of the modelling they're using, where they're predicting sometimes as much as a 50% greater chance of out-ers actually voting.

So, in a way, the state of the current polls are likely to do remain a favour by encouraging remainers to bother to vote, while it will weaken the chances of out-ers voting cos they're starting to believe they've got it in the bag.

If that effect is going to happen it's likely to be picked up in polling that's conducted in the next few days which will be out at the weekend or early next week.

[hfuhruhurr]

6 hours ago, eastynh said:

I have decided not to vote. My gut instinct is to vote in, but the problem is that I do not know enough in regards to the benefits and negatives to make an informed choice either way.

I have been working pretty much none stop and just not had time to do any proper research and feel like I would be voting blind.

 

I think you've found your reason right there. If we exit, then you won't be doing that anymore.

But seriously, I think you should vote, go with your gut, it's probably right.

[p.pete]

53 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

So, in a way, the state of the current polls are likely to do remain a favour by encouraging remainers to bother to vote, while it will weaken the chances of out-ers voting cos they're starting to believe they've got it in the bag.

If that effect is going to happen it's likely to be picked up in polling that's conducted in the next few days which will be out at the weekend or early next week.

If I'm understanding you correctly, they'll adjust the weighting as they get different evidence? (presumably the questions are in/out? and how likely are you to actually vote?)

If that's the case, is the favour being done this week for Remain likely to switch to a favour for Brexit next week?  The weather thread has the daily mail predicting rain, so hopefully their readers will stay indoors...

[clarkete]

6 hours ago, dooke10 said:

that with scaremongering that went on and not 'selling' the EU as it could have done has really hindered IN. The public lost all trust in Cameron and the like.

Its says a lot when Boris and Farage sound more trustworthy than Cameron or Osbourne and I honestly believe they do.

This common view that so many people have picked up that the remain camp was the side which was "scaremongering" and the other one that they are "the elite", when actually the exit camp is arguably just as guilty on both counts, shows that their PR, Newspaper and Advertising teams have been very effective. 

I've been hearing many of those w*nkers banging on about immigration for twenty years.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, p.pete said:

If I'm understanding you correctly, they'll adjust the weighting as they get different evidence? (presumably the questions are in/out? and how likely are you to actually vote?)

Yeah, that's about it in a nutshell.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the (seemingly) real possibility of Leave winning is likely to increase the likelihood of remainers voting.

 

2 minutes ago, p.pete said:

If that's the case, is the favour being done this week for Remain likely to switch to a favour for Brexit next week?

Nope, because the nature of the referendum strongly incentivises leavers to vote anyway. One problem with the set-up has always been that remainers aren't as strongly motivated.

Also, from an article I read earlier this morning, all previous UK refs have shown a not-insignificant strengthening of support for the status quo in the last week or so, with a no-status-quo spike before that - and this one looks to be following that pattern .

(that pattern is there regardless of whether the vote was for the status-quo, or against it, btw).

 

[the wonderwhy]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

I'm not an outer, but....

Have you noticed the young people's unemployment rate in much of the Eurozone...?

I can see where you're coming from with the question, but I think the current state of the world makes it somewhat irrelevant.

Yeah I totally get that point, and is one of my (very few) concerns. But I don't think it makes it totally irrelevant. Whilst I don't expect a load of young people to go swanning off to Spain or Greece, there are still a number of attractive countries that have similar lowish youth unemployment rates to the UK (or in same cases like Germany/Denmark better). Its of course a gamble but I reckon its a gamble a lot of people my age will at least give more consideration if we leave. I've been thinking about Germany for years, even before Brexit was a word, so its not a new idea on my behalf but it would certainly make the decision easier. 

Its just a shame that and other youth issues haven't been properly addressed by either side (Leave insist reduced immigration will do wonders for young people, yet I don't think young people give a shit about immigration, in fact if anything they probably think the opposite) although I of course know why we've been ignored by both sides  

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, MattDavies__ said:

Yeah I totally get that point, and is one of my (very few) concerns. But I don't think it makes it totally irrelevant. Whilst I don't expect a load of young people to go swanning off to Spain or Greece, there are still a number of attractive countries that have similar lowish youth unemployment rates to the UK (or in same cases like Germany/Denmark better). Its of course a gamble but I reckon its a gamble a lot of people my age will at least give more consideration if we leave. I've been thinking about Germany for years, even before Brexit was a word, so its not a new idea on my behalf but it would certainly make the decision easier. 

Its just a shame that and other youth issues haven't been properly addressed by either side (Leave insist reduced immigration will do wonders for young people, yet I don't think young people give a shit about immigration, in fact if anything they probably think the opposite) although I of course know why we've been ignored by both sides  

One of my Bruv's lives in Germany, about half-time anyway. The job he got in Germany (where he was anyway) has moved half of the role to the UK. His feet are the goose steps of the German invasion of the UK.

He's married to a German lady, and last i heard they were both applying for citizenship of the other's country of birth, just in case.

But anyway, for your scenario, it's a bit swings and roundabouts, I'd say. While more might think they need something less insular than a post-brexit post-truth UK might be, the ease with which they can make a choice for elsewhere will be constrained by that post-brexit world, where it won't only be the UK which has new border controls.

There might be a spurt to leave in the next couple of years I guess - tho the major brexit players have already conceded they'd likely to be an EU immigration surge too, and that's likely to bring us more and better for the short term than we'd be losing.

[Starchild771]

I'm voting leave.

I feel the EU is too unbalanced power-wise and has grown far beyond it's original remit of being a trading union into a big cumbersome system which is in many ways ineffective for many people. I have concerns about the power of our banking system and certain big businesses and their connection to the EU.

I see no good reason why new systems cannot eventually be put into place - systems which also take into account the rest of the world and systems that ultimately can be more refined to suit all those involved. I believe in progress and evolution even if it means we need to take a backwards step to move forward.

[clarkete]

55 minutes ago, Starchild771 said:

I'm voting leave.

I feel the EU is too unbalanced power-wise and has grown far beyond it's original remit of being a trading union into a big cumbersome system which is in many ways ineffective for many people. I have concerns about the power of our banking system and certain big businesses and their connection to the EU.

I see no good reason why new systems cannot eventually be put into place - systems which also take into account the rest of the world and systems that ultimately can be more refined to suit all those involved. I believe in progress and evolution even if it means we need to take a backwards step to move forward.

1.  Harold Wilson always intended that the trading union was just a first step

2.  If you think that the PM you will anoint is not cosy to the bankers you missed his stint as mayor of London. 

3.  Any systems we like can be put into place,  as long as we're happy for the economy and our international relations suffer for two to ten years in the meantime. 

[eastynh]

9 hours ago, hfuhruhurr said:

I think you've found your reason right there. If we exit, then you won't be doing that anymore.

But seriously, I think you should vote, go with your gut, it's probably right.

To be fair mate, we are one of the last semiconductor manufacturers in the UK. As the EU has grown stronger, most of our industry has gone to the far east. It is a miracle we have survived, but survived we have. Not sure us leaving the EU would have much of an impact on our industry.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, Starchild771 said:

I'm voting leave.

I feel the EU is too unbalanced power-wise and has grown far beyond it's original remit of being a trading union into a big cumbersome system which is in many ways ineffective for many people. I have concerns about the power of our banking system and certain big businesses and their connection to the EU.

I see no good reason why new systems cannot eventually be put into place - systems which also take into account the rest of the world and systems that ultimately can be more refined to suit all those involved. I believe in progress and evolution even if it means we need to take a backwards step to move forward.

As you noted, trade agreements are hard things to get sorted. I'm sure agreements could be put in place, but they take time and effort. Why would other countries take that time and effort with us? Yes, for our big industries, it'll be worthwhile, but we also benefit from EU trade agreements where actually we trade very little of a particular good. So little it wouldn't be worth negotiating with us. Maybe it's just 10-20 companies across the UK. But they get the same rights as say, Germany, who are a mass importer/exporter of those goods. So the small companies get screwed, because no-one negotiates on their behalf.

But the big companies, the big business you don't like, they're fine with Leave because they have the power to negotiate trade agreements themselves.

There's no "good" reason those alternatives can't be put in place, but there are plenty of bad excuses. Do you trust the UK government not to use bad excuses?

[DeanoL]

27 minutes ago, eastynh said:

To be fair mate, we are one of the last semiconductor manufacturers in the UK. As the EU has grown stronger, most of our industry has gone to the far east. It is a miracle we have survived, but survived we have. Not sure us leaving the EU would have much of an impact on our industry.

Except isn't that entire industry dependant on ITA, which was expanded to cover semiconductors last year? Which the UK is a part of because the EU negotiated it on its behalf? And that we'd no longer be a part of if we left the EU. And there are so few semiconductor manufacturers in the UK (as you say yourself) that it's probably not even worth the UK government negotiating to join ITA independently?

I could be wrong on that, it was only tangentially affecting my employers, but if it's your livelihood I'd probably dig into ITA and the actual consequences rather than guessing that it'll probably be okay?

[eastynh]

4 hours ago, DeanoL said:

Except isn't that entire industry dependant on ITA, which was expanded to cover semiconductors last year? Which the UK is a part of because the EU negotiated it on its behalf? And that we'd no longer be a part of if we left the EU. And there are so few semiconductor manufacturers in the UK (as you say yourself) that it's probably not even worth the UK government negotiating to join ITA independently?

I could be wrong on that, it was only tangentially affecting my employers, but if it's your livelihood I'd probably dig into ITA and the actual consequences rather than guessing that it'll probably be okay?

I do not know anything about the ITA mate and would be lying if I said I did. We are American owned though so not sure how any ITA agreement would actually effect us specifically, as all we do is manufacture the things here.

Again this is why I am not voting. I do not have time to research it properly either way.

Edited June 15, 2016 by eastynh

[Mr.Tease]

I voted remain, but the tories are making such a pigs ear of the whole campaign - I find it hilarious that the stuff they are threatening will happen if leave wins is stuff they are already doing! (cutting spending, running down the NHS, etc) - now Osborne 's threatening he' ll have to make spending cuts (which he enjoys doing anyways) and raise taxes - erm  didn't he  do that lock down pledge at the election where he made it illegal for him to raise taxes?! Is this an admission that it was just a gimmick? 

[eFestivals]

9 hours ago, Starchild771 said:

I'm voting leave.

I feel the EU is too unbalanced power-wise and has grown far beyond it's original remit of being a trading union into a big cumbersome system which is in many ways ineffective for many people. I have concerns about the power of our banking system and certain big businesses and their connection to the EU.

will that be the same banking system that the EU have been tryig to regulate and curb their powers, but where the UK govt has obstructed and stopped the EU doing anything....?

You're welcome to your view, but your view does not match the facts and that makes you wrong.

[eFestivals]

32 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I voted remain, but the tories are making such a pigs ear of the whole campaign - I find it hilarious that the stuff they are threatening will happen if leave wins is stuff they are already doing! (cutting spending, running down the NHS, etc) - now Osborne 's threatening he' ll have to make spending cuts (which he enjoys doing anyways) and raise taxes - erm  didn't he  do that lock down pledge at the election where he made it illegal for him to raise taxes?! Is this an admission that it was just a gimmick? 

except of course you'll falling into the brexiter's and snipper's fallacy of thinking things couldn't be worse than now.

Yes, the tories are cutting things to protect the profits they pocket, but exactly the same will happen in all circumstances - they'll cut as much as they feel they have to. Which means that if the economy goes tits-up, they'll cut even more than now.

Just because things might be shit now doesn't mean that things can't be even more shit.

As we'll find out if we brexit.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

A lot more inners coming out of the woodwork at work this week. Seems like they've had enough of remaining quiet.

needs to happen if remain are going to win ... they need to get out and vote, the majority is on their side tho the majority of votes might not be.

[p.pete]

3 minutes ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

A lot more inners coming out of the woodwork at work this week. Seems like they've had enough of remaining quiet.

Classic!

[Mardy]

yeah, I reckon the outers will get more confident, some of them will stay at home, but the inners will all be galvanised to turn out to vote. I'm still fairly pessimistic, but I think it'll be a lot closer than recent polls have suggested.

[Spindles]

3 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

I voted remain, but the tories are making such a pigs ear of the whole campaign - I find it hilarious that the stuff they are threatening will happen if leave wins is stuff they are already doing! (cutting spending, running down the NHS, etc) - now Osborne 's threatening he' ll have to make spending cuts (which he enjoys doing anyways) and raise taxes - erm  didn't he  do that lock down pledge at the election where he made it illegal for him to raise taxes?! Is this an admission that it was just a gimmick? 

Is it any more ridiculous than the leave campaign telling us they will spend all this saved money on the NHS and so on, then announcing that they intend to continue with the same farming subsidies, same grants for businesses and so on.  By my reckoning the money they claim to save they've spent several times over in promises.

[eFestivals]

Just now, Mardy said:

yeah, I reckon the outers will get more confident, some of them will stay at home, but the inners will all be galvanised to turn out to vote. I'm still fairly pessimistic, but I think it'll be a lot closer than recent polls have suggested.

no polls have yet registered a stronger preference for leave.

It's the modelling of the preferences (basically, the likelihood to vote) that's putting leave in the lead.