Are we In or Out?

[Mardy]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

no polls have yet registered a stronger preference for leave.

It's the modelling of the preferences (basically, the likelihood to vote) that's putting leave in the lead.

yeah, just reading a bit about the methodolgy now. Interesting, eh?

 

As my mate said earlier

Remember re. EUref polls:
1) Media wants close race
2) Even best polls are dodgy
3) Who is commissioning polls?
4) Who is reporting polls?

 

 

[eFestivals]

28 minutes ago, Mardy said:

yeah, just reading a bit about the methodolgy now. Interesting, eh?

 

As my mate said earlier

Remember re. EUref polls:
1) Media wants close race
2) Even best polls are dodgy
3) Who is commissioning polls?
4) Who is reporting polls?

Your mate is a bit insular.

The media are all (bar the Guardian & Mirror) backing leave. They don't want a close race, they want a victory.

Polls are commissioned, but those who commission don't get to set anything of the poll.

The polling companies are working blind on this, unlike normal election polling, so they have to try and work what they know about how people act towards voting into their modelling - but ultimately it's only guesswork.

However, inaccurate polls do those polling companies no favours: if their polling turns out to be shit to those who commission them, they won't get commissioned again.

 

[Mardy]

Didn't tehy all get it wrong at the last general election? Think they've improved since then? (Genuine question, I really don't know, but am inherently suspicious of the media's motives)

[Starchild771]

12 hours ago, clarkete said:

1.  Harold Wilson always intended that the trading union was just a first step

2.  If you think that the PM you will anoint is not cosy to the bankers you missed his stint as mayor of London. 

3.  Any systems we like can be put into place,  as long as we're happy for the economy and our international relations suffer for two to ten years in the meantime. 

1. Harold Wilson may have intended the trading as a first step but I still feel that the EU as it currently stands is too big to serve all the countries that fall under it's umbrella fairly.

2. I don't think that, and I am no fan of Boris or many of the Brexitiers - I am voting leave to leave to EU (see point 1) and of course other issues will need to be dealt with along the way.

3. As I said we may need to take a step back to move forward and I am personally happy to do that - through-out history many people have had to suffer in the name of progress so I have no problem taking a hit if it mean the possibility of progress for future generations.

[eFestivals]

28 minutes ago, Mardy said:

Didn't tehy all get it wrong at the last general election? Think they've improved since then? (Genuine question, I really don't know, but am inherently suspicious of the media's motives)

Not all of them. Some got it right but were considered to be outliers and not the most accurate ... but even the 'wrong' ones were just about within the margin of error.

However good they may or may not be, they're the best tool there is for how opinion falls outside of the real vote. If someone is dismissing them as irrelevant, the chances are high that the person doing so is more likely to be wrong with their own take on things than the polls are.

I'm not dismissing them as irrelevant, just to be clear. I'm looking deeper into them and looking at historical trends (the few there are around refs) and trying to find hope for the result I'd like within those - while still recognising that what the polls say might be how it goes.

Don't forget, polls this far away from the vote are likely to further away from how the real vote goes anyway, just by the fact of their being a week for some people's minds to change. It's the polls on the eve of the vote that will stand the greatest chance of accuracy.

[krisskross]

 

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

no polls have yet registered a stronger preference for leave.

It's the modelling of the preferences (basically, the likelihood to vote) that's putting leave in the lead.

Thats just not true. This is the largest YouGov poll (3500 people), done on the 3 June.  (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hkfno5n9fo/GMB_Results_160603_UndecidedVoters_Website.pdf)

Both Leave and soft leave (not 100% sure on voting) are ahead. 

The weighting is for region, gender, education, social grade. The weighting mostly affects skilled working class (social grade C2), men aged 25-50 with low education, and people that did not vote at the GE. Could that be pushing the leave vote total up artificially? Yes.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, krisskross said:

Thats just not true.

dammit, that's one less pollster commentator to ignore.

 

[krisskross]

I'll have to find the link but there is something along the lines of Leave voters are more keen to respond to (online) polls so are getting in first. They work on a quota basis for each demographic bracket and when that fills up it stops taking in new people. The weighting then does not work (adjusting the proportion of people in which bracket, to match the UK population) because the data is wrong.

[Dave F.]

2 hours ago, Mardy said:

Remember re. EUref polls:
1) Media wants close race

From what I've seen of the more 'intellectual' media, they've little interest in the referendum, just the infighting between the Tories.

I think that both sides should be banned from using words such as 'could, might or may'

Edited June 15, 2016 by Dave F.

[eFestivals]

16 minutes ago, krisskross said:

I'll have to find the link but there is something along the lines of Leave voters are more keen to respond to (online) polls so are getting in first. They work on a quota basis for each demographic bracket and when that fills up it stops taking in new people. The weighting then does not work (adjusting the proportion of people in which bracket, to match the UK population) because the data is wrong.

ahhh ... so that yougov is a self-selected sample...?

[p.pete]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

ahhh ... so that yougov is a self-selected sample...?

I've signed up to yougov and they send me emails notifying me that a survey is available - not sure whether they send me a notification for all eligible surveys, or whether they use some sort of stratification based on what they know about people already.  They don't give an indication beforehand as to the content of the survey, they're often frontloaded with unrelated questions - but you can probably guess most polls this week are going to be politically related.

I don't actively do the surveys, but sometimes the link still works several days later, sometimes the next day access is gone - could be that it closes when a quota is reached.

[clarkete]

1 hour ago, Starchild771 said:

1. Harold Wilson may have intended the trading as a first step but I still feel that the EU as it currently stands is too big to serve all the countries that fall under it's umbrella fairly.

2. I don't think that, and I am no fan of Boris or many of the Brexitiers - I am voting leave to leave to EU (see point 1) and of course other issues will need to be dealt with along the way.

3. As I said we may need to take a step back to move forward and I am personally happy to do that - through-out history many people have had to suffer in the name of progress so I have no problem taking a hit if it mean the possibility of progress for future generations.

If you want to vote for leave because you have an issue with immigration, due to a perception of other problems then that can cause, then that's obviously your choice.

However, if you think that somehow you're enabling young folk to have a brighter financial future, then I think you've been lied to by someone, as the vast majority of opinions I've read suggest that we will be worse off and in some cases for many years.

She clearly has a view that supports the remain cause, but it's worth two minutes for the specific examples which she mentions of trade deals and this fantastical view of how all the world is desperate to offer better trade terms than we have currently:-

http://www.strongerin.co.uk/ngaire_woods_on_the_single_market 

[SwedgeAntilles]

Ballot paper finally arrived today. One more for the Remain pile. Still think we'll just about sneak it 

[Dave F.]

Voted 'out' yesterday.

Immigration had very little bearing on my decision.

As a net giver, all grants from the EU is UK money minus admin fees creamed off the top (if admin is only 6%, as claimed, then it's by far the most efficiently run organisation I've ever come across)

Norman Lamont & the ERM proves that Euro nations fail to work together. Spain's currency fell below the stated exchange rate band. The stronger countries (France & Germany) were meant to devalue to compensate. Basic they told Spain to eff off.

The vast majority of deals that we'd leave behind can be renegotiated. It appears that MPs & civil servants are just scared of have to do some work for a change. They have a fear of form filling.

Human Rights is governed by Council of Europe which is separate from the EU & we will not be leaving it,

The protection of European borders is governed by NATO, again separate from the EU. We will not be leaving it,

Security form terrorist attacks will remain the same. It's ridiculous to intimate, as some remainers have, that Europol won't pick up phone if Scotland Yard or MI6 call with strategic information.

The UK has the 5th biggest world economy. They can't afford to ignore us should we leave. Any extra import tax on products will be a tax on their citizens.

[GoonerRob]

Postal vote went off today... In for me!

[Junglist1981]

Are you not concerned about the immediate risk to our economy?

 

[Winslow Leach]

25 minutes ago, Dave F. said:

Voted 'out' yesterday.

Immigration had very little bearing on my decision.

As a net giver, all grants from the EU is UK money minus admin fees creamed off the top (if admin is only 6%, as claimed, then it's by far the most efficiently run organisation I've ever come across)

Norman Lamont & the ERM proves that Euro nations fail to work together. Spain's currency fell below the stated exchange rate band. The stronger countries (France & Germany) were meant to devalue to compensate. Basic they told Spain to eff off.

The vast majority of deals that we'd leave behind can be renegotiated. It appears that MPs & civil servants are just scared of have to do some work for a change. They have a fear of form filling.

Human Rights is governed by Council of Europe which is separate from the EU & we will not be leaving it,

The protection of European borders is governed by NATO, again separate from the EU. We will not be leaving it,

Security form terrorist attacks will remain the same. It's ridiculous to intimate, as some remainers have, that Europol won't pick up phone if Scotland Yard or MI6 call with strategic information.

The UK has the 5th biggest world economy. They can't afford to ignore us should we leave. Any extra import tax on products will be a tax on their citizens.

Yeah but you've also legitimised racism so swings and roundabouts.

[eFestivals]

30 minutes ago, p.pete said:

I've signed up to yougov and they send me emails notifying me that a survey is available - not sure whether they send me a notification for all eligible surveys, or whether they use some sort of stratification based on what they know about people already.  They don't give an indication beforehand as to the content of the survey, they're often frontloaded with unrelated questions - but you can probably guess most polls this week are going to be politically related.

I don't actively do the surveys, but sometimes the link still works several days later, sometimes the next day access is gone - could be that it closes when a quota is reached.

thanks.

So that's very definitely self-selecting, and while I'm sure yougov doesn't just take the first ones to do any survey as the sample, when the initial input data is that flawed there's no method that can accurately model around that.

[eFestivals]

40 minutes ago, Dave F. said:

Norman Lamont & the ERM proves that Euro nations fail to work together. Spain's currency fell below the stated exchange rate band. The stronger countries (France & Germany) were meant to devalue to compensate. Basic they told Spain to eff off.

I'll just point out that the UK's failure to stay within the ERM had fuck all to do with flaws in the ERM or other countries telling the UK to f-off.

*EVERYTHING* about it was caused by Thatcher's personal obsession that the pound was worth 3DM's for no economic reason whatsoever (instead "it used to be worth that so should be still"), and her instruction to Major to go in at that (in the end it was at 2.95DM).

Just about all independent economic advice suggested significantly lower, and the UK crashing out of the ERM proved that advice right.

40 minutes ago, Dave F. said:

The UK has the 5th biggest world economy. They can't afford to ignore us should we leave. Any extra import tax on products will be a tax on their citizens.

They won't ignore us.

They will be happy to (perhaps) penalise their own citizens by ensuring that any deal the UK has is a worse deal than it has currently. It *HAS TO* be this way, because if it wasn't it would prove the EU as an irrelevant expense to its members.

I guarantee that the priority will be validating the political structures over any immediately obvious bad economic effect onto EU members. The line will be that it's for the better long term result.

Exports to the UK is just 4% of EU GDP. It can take a massive hit with almost no impact felt onto EU member states. The same is not true in the other direction.

And the EU can easily lessen the effects of any loss by encouraging UK-based businesses into the EU ... the first to go will be Mini, I'm pretty sure.

Edited June 15, 2016 by eFestivals

[GlastoSimon]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And the EU can easily lessen the effects of any loss by encouraging UK-based businesses into the EU ... the first to go will be Mini, I'm pretty sure.

To be fair, the EU already does this to an extent doesn't it? Large grants and loans to businesses when moving from the UK to other EU nations - Ford at Southampton and a site for Twinings I seem to remember being controversial - one aspect of the organisation I am quite uncomfortable with given it allows companies to exploit cheaper labour at cut prices.

Not sure whether it happens for most moves mind (people claim there was money given to Cadbury's going from Keynsham, though I can't remember that...)

Edited June 15, 2016 by GlastoSimon

[p.pete]

24 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

thanks.

So that's very definitely self-selecting, and while I'm sure yougov doesn't just take the first ones to do any survey as the sample, when the initial input data is that flawed there's no method that can accurately model around that.

Yeah - I'm sure they do surveys all the time though and I only get an email from them maybe once a week with an invite.  It'd be interesting to know if they randomly invite people from all those signed up, or whether they use the info they already know about those signed up to try to include different sections of population / age / location etc.  KrisKross's link seems to show an imbalance of 25-49 year olds - presumably those sat at a desk (like me) - thought they would swing it towards remain?

But definitely I decide to bother with a survey or not, and maybe I feel more like bothering depending on allegiances etc.

[eFestivals]

36 minutes ago, GlastoSimon said:

To be fair, the EU already does this to an extent doesn't it? Large grants and loans to businesses when moving from the UK to other EU nations - Ford at Southampton and a site for Twinings I seem to remember being controversial - one aspect of the organisation I am quite uncomfortable with given it allows companies to exploit cheaper labour at cut prices.

Not sure whether it happens for most moves mind (people claim there was money given to Cadbury's going from Keynsham, though I can't remember that...)

Ford got money to locate to Turkey, not even in the EU.

And from what I remember from local reporting, Frys (Cadbury's) got money to move to Poland.

I'm actually quote comfortable with that. If the EU works as its designed to do, this is part of what it needs to be doing as an alternative to Barnett formula style formal fiscal transfers between member states, and where ultimately all states would have economies of around the same standard.

If the 2008 crash hadn't happened - which the UK is waaaay-more responsible for than all of the rest of the EU combined - the chances are we probably wouldn't even be aware of these relocation funds (nor be having the migration we are). It's only in hard times that people get so very possessive with saying "that's mine".

[siblin]

4 hours ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

Round here (slightly racist West Yorkshire) I think people are realising they'd better turn up if they are remain. Hope so anyway. 

The Labour party have been emailing and calling telling me that they've identified west yorkshire as an area where labour voters are skewed toward leave, and they've been putting focus on campaigning to stay in here.  Maybe it's paying off

[krisskross]

Did postal vote today. Remain.

Why add so much risk when the economy is still pretty volatile. 

[GlastoSimon]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Ford got money to locate to Turkey, not even in the EU.

And from what I remember from local reporting, Frys (Cadbury's) got money to move to Poland.

I'm actually quote comfortable with that. If the EU works as its designed to do, this is part of what it needs to be doing as an alternative to Barnett formula style formal fiscal transfers between member states, and where ultimately all states would have economies of around the same standard.

If the 2008 crash hadn't happened - which the UK is waaaay-more responsible for than all of the rest of the EU combined - the chances are we probably wouldn't even be aware of these relocation funds (nor be having the migration we are). It's only in hard times that people get so very possessive with saying "that's mine".

Fecks sake, course it was Turkey Ford went to. Silly me  

Of course I like the idea of more competitive economies in Europe, but its understandable that people have concerns etc. when these places are still struggling, and jobs get lost. I hope that can change in the future.