Don't vote Tory

[Teddington]

Just now, Ommadawn said:

Well, it rather depends on whether you feel the policies chosen to make life better for the majority actually end up making life worse.

 

Stop posting common sense.  It confuses some people.

 

 

[zahidf]

 

 

[arcade fireman]

Latest Opinum/Observer poll has Labour 10 points behind - it is however an improvement of 3 points from the previous week. Much bigger variation in polls than previous elections - I suspect it's partly due to how each company has responded to the 2015 election. I do think however well Labour have campaigned we will shortly reach a ceiling of people who simply won't be converted. Would dearly love to be wrong - and unless the Tories open up a bigger lead again I think this election has weakened May at least. 

[zahidf]

Looks like it might be a contest...

 

[MadScientist]

On 5/25/2017 at 9:41 PM, Zac Quinn said:

Yeah because god forbid anyone actually has independent opinions not moulded by the media. My main issue with him is that he's a god-awful public speaker. A) I've thought this since first hearing him speak at a hustings which took place before the press started lynching him, and b ) his god-awful public speaking style is barely ever mentioned by the press.

What are you on about? He's an excellent public speaker! Have you ever seen any other relevant politician move crowds of thousands upon thousands of people the way he does? I've been at some of those speeches, you see numbers of people moved to tears!

[rubenz]

I was just on you tube having a listen to the Nicole moudaber remix of give me luv by alcatraz ( which is a banger btw) and was treated to a character assassination of jeremy corbyn on behalf of the tories beforehand.  Nasty stuff but they are really making the most of targeted online ads. 

[DeanoL]

5 hours ago, Teddington said:

 

If you honestly think that ANY country would benefit from JC being it's leader then go ahead and vote for him. 

We're not electing a president. Worst case he'd be head of a government formed of a whole bunch of MPs and backed up by a competent civil service. I mean, American elected Trump and is somehow doing okay, and if that doesn't give people pause about judging on the personality of the leader I don't know what will...

[eFestivals]

15 hours ago, clarkete said:

your line about 35 years is a very tedious old lie and I've pointed out in considerable detail why. 

Blair saved the NHS from tory abolition? Why didn't the tories abolish it before losing power then, and why haven't they abolished it since?

As i say, a tired old line that's been proven wrong for all of the decades its been used and didn't ever work effectively anyway is not going to make the difference this time either.

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

I tell you what if labour get something out of this election efests is going to have to ban me from this forum for all the noses I intend to rub into it.....you dont belive..... fine...take your bloody negativity somewhere where its wanted and useful.

stating the truth is always useful - and I've been speaking the truth about his lack of support. It's the lies and false hopes which are worthless.

If Jezza wins I'll be eating lots of humble pie, and i'll be happy for you to feed it to me.

But there's still the other part of what he's said he'll do and what is really achievable of what he's said he'll do. An electoral victory alone is not proof of his worth.

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, zahidf said:

Looks like it might be a contest...

 

 

Or not...

Even the 'good' one has Labour behind by around the normal gap of a Labour losing position - which is not a contest, it's a 'no contest'.

[eFestivals]

9 hours ago, MadScientist said:

What are you on about? He's an excellent public speaker! Have you ever seen any other relevant politician move crowds of thousands upon thousands of people the way he does? I've been at some of those speeches, you see numbers of people moved to tears!

Yes. Michael Foot. Who had a brain and people's respect, too ... and led Labour to their worst defeat in modern times. 

Corbyn is a poundland Michael Foot.

[Mr.Tease]

11 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

Latest Opinum/Observer poll has Labour 10 points behind - it is however an improvement of 3 points from the previous week. Much bigger variation in polls than previous elections - I suspect it's partly due to how each company has responded to the 2015 election. I do think however well Labour have campaigned we will shortly reach a ceiling of people who simply won't be converted. Would dearly love to be wrong - and unless the Tories open up a bigger lead again I think this election has weakened May at least. 

One of the big problems is the complete collapse of the Lib Dems and UKIP - we need one of those two to take on some of the tory vote but it's just not happening. I think you're right about us reaching saturation point soon. 

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

 

Or not...

Even the 'good' one has Labour behind by around the normal gap of a Labour losing position - which is not a contest, it's a 'no contest'.

As a side issue, are the polls usually this varied or is that something that happened after they all changed their methodology last election? 6,7 percent difference in tory lead is quite a big disagreement. 

[Duncan Doughnuts]

I'll be voting Labour again this election - not that it'll make much difference to the Tory majority in my constituency. However, the reverence that some on the left have for JC is troubling. On the whole, he hasn't closed the gap on the Tories since the last election, and yet there are many of his supporters who become argumentative (and even hostile) if Corbyn's leadership and/or policies are challenged. I concede that none of the parties budgetary figures stand up to close scrutiny but JC's spending policy reminds me of Homer's successful campaign to become Garbage Commissioner!!

 

Edited May 28, 2017 by Duncan Doughnuts
Typo

[eFestivals]

Just now, Mr.Tease said:

As a side issue, are the polls usually this varied or is that something that happened after they all changed their methodology last election? 6,7 percent difference in tory lead is quite a big disagreement. 

polls aren't normally this varied, but polls have never really showed the tories with a 10%+ lead before Corbyn was leader, and then there's brexit mixed in around it all too.

My take on what they're picking up (or not, depending which poll) is the people who've been turned off Labour because of Corbyn &/or brexit, who are starting to think more solidly about who they'll vote for rather than what they reject - and i'd say it was always likely that an amount of the massive lead the tories had would be reeled back in via that.

Corbyn's done better with that than I was thinking, tho I wasn't thinking the manifesto would offer the world on a stick for free either - and who doesn't love free stuff? 

There's an awful lot of excitement from the Corbynistas at the gap having been closed (just see some of the posts in this thread, for example) and if you go look under newspaper articles you'd end up thinking that Corbyn was suddenly showing a ten point lead and not be trailing by around 10 points still, and that last 'traditional' difference in the parties will be the hardest part to bridge.

Plus of course the narrative is likely to shift back away from the more-normal everyday politics that has been the talk of the last couple of weeks, and back towards brexit - a part of things almost whole-absent from the Labour manifesto, and where May is likely to be thought much stronger.

[amfy]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/11/virgin-care-700m-contract-200-nhs-social-care-services-bath-somerset

Yes ....no reason at all to think that scare stories about the privatisation of the NHS now are any different to those of previous governments.

[arcade fireman]

There's been a lot more disagreement between the polls than usual. Polls taken at the same time have varied between 5-14% Tory lead. 

I suspect this election is being treated a bit like a test run of all the polling companies' various changes of methodology in response to 2015. Whichever one gets closest the others will then try and copy. But there's going to be at least one polling company that will be much further out than they were in 2015 looking at the spread - though likely people won't pay attention to it so much if the predicted result is the same.

But average Tory poll lead since the Manchester attack still stands at 9%. In terms of progression, YouGov 24-25th May showed a Tory lead of 5%, YouGov 25-26th May showed a Tory lead of 7%. ICM 19-21 May showed Tory lead of 14%, ICM 24-26 May also shows a Tory lead of 14%. Possibly the first sign that the polls may be turning the other way or at least staying static but both are within the margin of error.

I have a horrible feeling the Tories if anything will gain from this narrowing in the long run. Of course if it carries on and Labour even manage to force a hung Parliament that would be brilliant (a majority is pretty much impossible). Hell, even a reduced Tory majority in single digits would be better than what we have now and would potentially mortally wound May in the long run. But the news from the marginals is worse than the overall picture and I can't see Labour doing much better than now - the impact of the manifestos has mostly happened. A 9% gap + disproportionately poor performance in marginals will still likely lead to less than 200 seats for Labour. 

Had it not been for this, I think there would have been more of a general acceptance that the Corbyn project has failed and Labour may have moved on more decisively. But I think from here on Corbyn supporters will point to vote % (which firstly doesn't decide elections and secondly ignores the collapse in the third party vote) and the more reasonable minded will point to the seat totals - this impasse will probably let the Tories run away with things again. 

Edited May 28, 2017 by arcade fireman

[clarkete]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Blair saved the NHS from tory abolition? Why didn't the tories abolish it before losing power then, and why haven't they abolished it since?

As i say, a tired old line that's been proven wrong for all of the decades its been used and didn't ever work effectively anyway is not going to make the difference this time either.

Again, I never mentioned abolition, you're making up your own discussion. 

[Mr.Tease]

40 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

There's been a lot more disagreement between the polls than usual. Polls taken at the same time have varied between 5-14% Tory lead. 

I suspect this election is being treated a bit like a test run of all the polling companies' various changes of methodology in response to 2015. Whichever one gets closest the others will then try and copy. But there's going to be at least one polling company that will be much further out than they were in 2015 looking at the spread - though likely people won't pay attention to it so much if the predicted result is the same.

But average Tory poll lead since the Manchester attack still stands at 9%. In terms of progression, YouGov 24-25th May showed a Tory lead of 5%, YouGov 25-26th May showed a Tory lead of 7%. ICM 19-21 May showed Tory lead of 14%, ICM 24-26 May also shows a Tory lead of 14%. Possibly the first sign that the polls may be turning the other way or at least staying static but both are within the margin of error.

I have a horrible feeling the Tories if anything will gain from this narrowing in the long run. Of course if it carries on and Labour even manage to force a hung Parliament that would be brilliant (a majority is pretty much impossible). Hell, even a reduced Tory majority in single digits would be better than what we have now and would potentially mortally wound May in the long run. But the news from the marginals is worse than the overall picture and I can't see Labour doing much better than now - the impact of the manifestos has mostly happened. A 9% gap + disproportionately poor performance in marginals will still likely lead to less than 200 seats for Labour. 

Had it not been for this, I think there would have been more of a general acceptance that the Corbyn project has failed and Labour may have moved on more decisively. But I think from here on Corbyn supporters will point to vote % (which firstly doesn't decide elections and secondly ignores the collapse in the third party vote) and the more reasonable minded will point to the seat totals - this impasse will probably let the Tories run away with things again. 

I hope whatever the lessons learned are, some on the right of the party and some in the centre realise they have more room for slightly more left wing policies- the policies seem popular, it's credibility that seems to be the issue. 

[arcade fireman]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I hope whatever the lessons learned are, some on the right of the party and some in the centre realise they have more room for slightly more left wing policies- the policies seem popular, it's credibility that seems to be the issue. 

I think the policies being a bit more left wing (than pre-Corbyn, not more so than now) is fair enough and will happen. I think anyone trying to be the next Labour leader will be a lot more aware now about the power the members hold. My main concern is about Corbyn hanging on after the election even if Labour lose seats, or failing that trying to hang on til the conference, change the rules so someone from his wing of the party is more likely to be made leader - there's no real suitable candidates and it would just make a mockery of things. 

This recent surge in the polls will probably leave Labour closer to 200 than 150 as looked like before - and unless the rules get changed (by no means a certainty - indeed many think less likely) then ironically it's a lot less likely Corbyn's faction will have the numbers to nominate with 180-190 MPs in Parliament. 

Edited May 28, 2017 by arcade fireman

[zahidf]

The arrogance of Tories delegitimising Sinn Fein (+ decades of the peace process) whenever an election comes round is staggering.   You're either on side of all governments since Thatcher or not. If you're not, then stop this innuendo, scrap the GFA and remake arrests.

[zahidf]

Cowardly May

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/28/amber-rudd-to-stand-in-for-theresa-may-in-televised-leaders-debate

[Jennings74]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Cowardly May

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/28/amber-rudd-to-stand-in-for-theresa-may-in-televised-leaders-debate

It's like going for a job interview but sending your mate cos you crack when put under any pressure!!

[arcade fireman]

Corbyn should be going though. Labour are still a fair way behind in the polls and there's not long left. It will suit the Tories for neither of them to turn up and for the status quo to be maintained. Labour still need to pull something else out of the bag to even stand a chance.

[hermano]

I haven't read the whole thread, but do genuine hand-on-heart Tories actually attend Glastonbury?  A communal/socialist festival with roots in counter culture/CND etc?