Don't vote Tory

[eFestivals]

28 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Charges being brought against tory's South Thanet MP - Farage will love the attention if that's the only electoral fraud prosecution.

it is the only one, all the others have already been dealt with (and with no prosecutions).

The tories have decided to back these three in Thanet in the hope it goes the same way in court - tho I guess they didn't really have other options. The geezer is on the ballot for this election, and disowning him would also essentially be an admission of the tories being fraudsters.

[p.pete]

3 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

Would be very surprised if the charges against one Tory MP change very much at all. 

It's a nice story, and allows the fact that the part as a whole was fined to be dragged up again.  At worst it balances out (edit: some of) the millions of pounds of internet spamming the tories will be unleashing over the next week.  I'd say there'll be more than 'no effect', though obviously not quantifiable.

Edited June 2, 2017 by p.pete

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, arcade fireman said:

Would be very surprised if the charges against one Tory MP change very much at all. 

oh, I'm sure there'll be plenty laying into them for it, and very probably the same ones who were cheering Farage getting beaten.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

oh, I'm sure there'll be plenty laying into them for it, and very probably the same ones who were cheering Farage getting beaten.

... and were cheering for the EU but who now think Jezza's take on leaving is a great idea.

Edited June 2, 2017 by eFestivals

[p.pete]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

oh, I'm sure there'll be plenty laying into them for it, and very probably the same ones who were cheering Farage getting beaten.

Absolutely - if this wasn't a 'Brexit election' I'd hope that PR might be on the table in some form.  From the last election one of the biggest poster-stories for a PR system would be UKIP - even though I couldn't see them calling for it, rather it'd be the people delighted UKIP don't have a large say in UK politics (like my, hypocrite) that would be calling for it.

[Mr.Tease]

20 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

Would be very surprised if the charges against one Tory MP change very much at all. 

Doubt it will in itself, but hopefully it contributes to the drip, drip drip shambles of the tory campaign 

[zahidf]

 

 

[zahidf]

22 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

... and were cheering for the EU but who now think Jezza's take on leaving is a great idea.

If you compare the parties manifestos, the Tories want a hard brexit and Labour want a softer one. Thats a big difference

[p.pete]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Doubt it will in itself, but hopefully it contributes to the drip, drip drip shambles of the tory campaign 

Farage is already implying it reflects on may's credibility, she's turned from an asset to a liability, thanet should be a straight fight between UKIP and Labour (etc).  Someone like him speaking ill of the Tories should have an impact, he's capable of being heard by many of the people not listening to labour's message.  Also while poll trends may be indicating increasing support for Labour, I don't think it's been because they've taken much support away from the tories - this story, if it doesn't blow over too quickly, may help transfer some votes about on the right / leave side of the electorate.

[eFestivals]

20 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

so a big loss by Labour then.

[eFestivals]

20 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If you compare the parties manifestos, the Tories want a hard brexit and Labour want a softer one. Thats a big difference

so it's no longer making Labour a racist party? because according to you all support for leaving is "because .. racist"

Edited June 2, 2017 by eFestivals

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

 

 

Crazy! I still refuse to believe them!

[FrancisH]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

... and were cheering for the EU but who now think Jezza's take on leaving is a great idea.

 

I don't think many think jezza's EU stance is suddenly a 'great' idea - I think that's you projecting your own slightly unfair opinions of corbynites a bit there... Most I know still want in. I think given the choices the majority are just terrified by what 'negotiations' May will serve up, so of course people will get behind Corbyns version of brexit, even if they don't think it the most ideal scenario.

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, FrancisH said:

 

I don't think many think jezza's EU stance is suddenly a 'great' idea - I think that's you projecting your own slightly unfair opinions of corbynites a bit there... Most I know still want in. I think given the choices the majority are just terrified by what 'negotiations' May will serve up, so of course people will get behind Corbyns version of brexit, even if they don't think it the most ideal scenario.

or alternatively they know it's a really really crap idea, but they can't say it because Corbyn helped take us there.

There's lots of different reasons. None of them good when better options are available to be pursued, but Corbyn is happy and I won't forget that.

I will still be voting Labour, but c'mon ... good labour would be better than not-good labour, about anything. I can be said, it should be said.

Edited June 2, 2017 by eFestivals

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

so a big loss by Labour then.

Such optimism!  These polls aren't predictions - they're snapshots.  This is a massive movement and there are still days to go.  May is collapsing under the pressure.  These polls aren't showing any sign of settling down.  WE CAN WIN! WE CAN WIN!

 

JEZ
WE
CAN
!!!!!!

[windy_miller]

Talking of Tory election expenses, I got a Conservative leaflet through my door the other day.  The first thing that struck me as odd was that it was addressed directly to me and delivered by royal mail.  That is the first time I've ever had an election leaflet NOT delivered by hand by a campaigner.

But then I noticed something else.  One half of the leaflet was about my local candidate.  The other half was all about Theresa May.  So which expenses budget did this leaflet come out of?  The local one or the national one?

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Such optimism!  These polls aren't predictions - they're snapshots.  This is a massive movement and there are still days to go.  May is collapsing under the pressure.  These polls aren't showing any sign of settling down.  WE CAN WIN! WE CAN WIN!

 

JEZ
WE
CAN
!!!!!!

The gap that exists now is about the normal loser-Labour gap. Nearly all seat predictions show the tories with more seats and Labour with fewer. Even 1/8th of Labour voters think May will be the better PM.

There is nothing evil in facing the facts of reality, but there's plenty in rejecting it.

Me, I'm thinking of opening a book on how quickly the first conspiracy theory of how the election was fiddled takes hold. It's inevitable.

[arcade fireman]

I think it's very unlikely we won't have Theresa May as PM after the election. I expect to see a late swing towards the Tories. But if that gap can be closed a bit more over the next few days it could make the hung parliament scenario a bit more realistic. That in itself would have massive implications for this country. Even that still needs 3-4% more for the polls to move though IMO but it's not impossible. 

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, windy_miller said:

Talking of Tory election expenses, I got a Conservative leaflet through my door the other day.  The first thing that struck me as odd was that it was addressed directly to me and delivered by royal mail.  That is the first time I've ever had an election leaflet NOT delivered by hand by a campaigner.

But then I noticed something else.  One half of the leaflet was about my local candidate.  The other half was all about Theresa May.  So which expenses budget did this leaflet come out of?  The local one or the national one?

much like your leaflet sounds like candidate & leader & not party, the Labour leaflets I've had have been candidate and party & not leader.

And one of those was personally addressed to me and delivered by royal mail.

If it's a tory fiddle, it'll be a Labour one too.

[GMF]

 

17 minutes ago, windy_miller said:

Talking of Tory election expenses, I got a Conservative leaflet through my door the other day.  The first thing that struck me as odd was that it was addressed directly to me and delivered by royal mail.  That is the first time I've ever had an election leaflet NOT delivered by hand by a campaigner.

But then I noticed something else.  One half of the leaflet was about my local candidate.  The other half was all about Theresa May.  So which expenses budget did this leaflet come out of?  The local one or the national one?

In an election every candidate is entitled to a free election communication to everyone on the electoral role, delivered by Royal Mail and paid for by the tax payer. The content has to be approved to ensure it does not breach electoral guidelines. The parties still have to pay for the stationary, printing and usually someone to database the addresses, therefore tends to be focused on marginal seats.

Edited June 2, 2017 by GMF

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

I think it's very unlikely we won't have Theresa May as PM after the election. I expect to see a late swing towards the Tories. But if that gap can be closed a bit more over the next few days it could make the hung parliament scenario a bit more realistic. That in itself would have massive implications for this country. Even that still needs 3-4% more for the polls to move though IMO but it's not impossible. 

I expect there to be a late swing to the tories but whether we'll see it in polls is another thing. We didn't last time, and if there's something to the shy tories thing it's still here.

There's a real danger of the excitement blinding people to the fact that Labour are not doing better than in the last election.

[p.pete]

Accepting that 'shy tory' is a thing - is there such a thing as 'youth vote'?  Famously elusive, massively over-represented in the polls, but is there a reason for that?  My suggestion is that politics is dull, and that the most engaged that 'youth vote' have been in recent decades was when Nick Clegg was pre his tory-alliance.  I could believe that Tony Blair also garnered some 'youth vote' in the beginning - election win 1 and maybe a bit in election win 2, but probably mostly grown up or disinterested by election win 3.  Sure milli-fandom existed, but it was a bit weak and contrived - I'm hoping there's something a bit stronger this time around.

Apparently hundred's of thousands of these 'youths' registered to vote before the deadline - will they turn up?  Referring back to the elusive and over-represented bit above, maybe they'll be there this time.  Will the 'shy tory' turn up this time?  Apparently they always do, I'd say there might be a lot of things to dissuade them this time - has there been a worse tory campaign in living memory?  If a greater proportion of shy tories abstain than normal, and a greater proportion of youth-vote turn out than normal, things could be interesting.

Edited June 2, 2017 by p.pete

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, p.pete said:

Accepting that 'shy tory' is a thing - is there such a thing as 'youth vote'?  Famously elusive, massively over-represented in the polls, but is there a reason for that?  My suggestion is that politics is dull, and that the most engaged that 'youth vote' have been in recent decades was when Nick Clegg was in his pre-tory-alliance.  I could believe that Tony Blair also garnered some 'youth vote' in the beginning - election win 1 and maybe a bit in election win 2, but probably mostly grown up or disinterested by election win 3.  Sure milli-fandom existed, but it was a bit weak and contrived - I'm hoping there's something a bit stronger this time around.

Apparently hundred's of thousands of these 'youths' registered to vote before the deadline - will they turn up?  Referring back to the elusive and over-represented bit above, maybe they'll be there this time.  Will the 'shy tory' turn up this time?  Apparently they always do, I'd say there might be a lot of things to dissuade them this time - has there been a worse tory campaign in living memory?  If a greater proportion of shy tories abstain than normal, and a greater proportion of youth-vote turn out than normal, things could be interesting.

There was actually a bigger youngsters turnout last time than there was for clegg - tho not much different, both low 40s%.

Current polling is showing 65%-ish saying they'll vote, similar-ish to the norm.

Take your pick.

(Yougov polls are taking them at their word, which is why the yougov polls show a lesser gap to the tories than other polls)

[Spindles]

If people are galvanized for change and convinced that there is a building movement for that with Corbyn then that can sway votes, I think.  I'm certainly aware of previously LibDem, UKIP and Green supporters in my peer group who have really got behind Corbyn in recent weeks. 

2 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Apparently hundred's of thousands of these 'youths' registered to vote before the deadline - will they turn up?  

They did for his leadership elections, apparently being willing to stump up cash (and keep stumping up, membership is still rising) to be able to do so.

Theresa May is crumbling before our eyes.  Her every appearance she looks more nervous, fails to answer questions in an ever more shambolic manner, retreats further from the actual public and the hard questions.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, p.pete said:

has there been a worse tory campaign in living memory?

I've heard it said there hasn't. I've also heard it said that May is the worst leader ever to stand.

I wish those people would stop and ask themselves why Labour is still behind, then.