Don't vote Tory

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

how will they! theyve lost support! whats not to understand about this? its not just labour have gained support but the tories have lost pleanty of theres! esp among their core voters thats huge.

They've certainly lost support during the campaign, but the jury is very much out on whether they've lost support since the last election.

We'll find out in a few days.

[Mr.Tease]

Sunday times YouGov:

Tories down 1 on 42, Labour up 2 on 38

Telegraph:

Tories up 1 on 45

Labour down 2 on 36

[waterfalls212434]

Ill say this as well and it might not mean anything it might mean something its a personal anecdote all the same, I was in work yesterday and I do factory work I work with a lot of people who `dont really have time` for politics shall we say, the type who usually just spout what they've heard in the papers when the topics come up, ive often had the piss taken in fact for backing corbyn from these people because theyve read what they've read about him and believed it all.

But yesterday on a break being close to the election the topic came up, and I have to say I was a bit taken aback because many of these lads were talking in the way of praising labour and corbyn and slagging off may more then anything, even a few saying outright they would be voting for labour. Now these are the  working class folks labour are meant to be to `middle class and unrealistic` these days to appeal to, people who are by stereotype meant to be the ones behind the rise of support for people like ukip etc. 

And to a man other then 1 or 2 examples in this discussion we were having they were praising labour up and absolutely laying into the tories, my mate I get a lift to work with whose not political in the slightest(one of the fuck it their all the same mentality) still takes it upon himself to give the middle finger and a quick `fuck off`  as we drive past the local tory mps signs by the roadside. 

I wouldnt have thought a year or so back many of these people would ever be praising up Jeremy corbyn thats for damn sure.......now that to me shows that labour are reaching people their not (by the media narrative anyway) meant to be reaching....and that is what inspires hope in me.

 

[Mr.Tease]

So Tory lead is ranging from 1 to 12, if you look at all of today's polls

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

Ill say this as well and it might not mean anything it might mean something its a personal anecdote all the same, I was in work yesterday and I do factory work I work with a lot of people who `dont really have time` for politics shall we say, the type who usually just spout what they've heard in the papers when the topics come up, ive often had the piss taken in fact for backing corbyn from these people because theyve read what they've read about him and believed it all.

But yesterday on a break being close to the election the topic came up, and I have to say I was a bit taken aback because many of these lads were talking in the way of praising labour and corbyn and slagging off may more then anything, even a few saying outright they would be voting for labour. Now these are the  working class folks labour are meant to be to `middle class and unrealistic` these days to appeal to, people who are by stereotype meant to be the ones behind the rise of support for people like ukip etc. 

And to a man other then 1 or 2 examples in this discussion we were having they were praising labour up and absolutely laying into the tories, my mate I get a lift to work with whose not political in the slightest(one of the fuck it their all the same mentality) still takes it upon himself to give the middle finger and a quick `fuck off`  as we drive past the local tory mps signs by the roadside. 

I wouldnt have thought a year or so back many of these people would ever be praising up Jeremy corbyn thats for damn sure.......now that to me shows that labour are reaching people their not (by the media narrative anyway) meant to be reaching....and that is what inspires hope in me.

 

I bet you're fun to have a break-time political discussion with

[Babylon sister]

31 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

We're trying to protect ourselves against getting our hopes too high- I'll be absolutely heart broken if tories win a bigger majority, so I'm keeping my expectations low. I've been down this road many times before!

If you don't have hope you have nothing. I'd rather high hopes and be disappointed, than live in fear of change as so many people seem to be doing at the moment.,I was in Glasgow today and saw 25000 people march for independence. After years of apathy in Scotland, demoralisation and fear, it was amazing to see all those people take to the streets, whatever the cause.  I'd like to see more of this. 

[arcade fireman]

37 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's an interesting one. With a more appealing frontman, we could have easily had another manifesto where people would say with a straight face that "they're all the same". The manifesto, the party and the leader are inextricably linked.

That's true. But Corbyn's past associations and positions on various national security issues are actually quite separate to the manifesto. There's a lot to like about the way Corbyn himself has fought this campaign - I think as far as he's done these last six weeks his media appearances have definitely helped Labour. But I think a lot of the lingering reasons why Labour probably won't get over the line are also down to Corbyn related factors. 

I think its possible to say Corbyn has had a big hand in the surge but also is a reason why it will reach a ceiling IMO. The type of voters Labour are attracting is relevant here. If you look at the YouGov tabs Labour have almost entirely got their extra support from 2015 Lib Dem voters, Green voters and a few UKIP voters. There's almost no net movement either way between 2015 Labour voters and 2015 Tory voters.

And that's a real problem and what may well cost Labour. Attracting a few 2015 Tory voters back to Labour effectively counts double since most seats contested are a Tory/Labour fight. Had they pulled a few Tory voters over even instead of attracting some of the others, we'd be seeing the Tory vote in the 30s and Labour probably in the lead. 

Of course it's speculation over whether they could've done that with a different leader. But that's where those ratings are relevant. Corbyn has had a great campaign but I fear it won't be enough. 

Edited June 3, 2017 by arcade fireman

[Mr.Tease]

What is the point in electoral polls when there is a twelve point variance between them?

[arcade fireman]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

What is the point in electoral polls when there is a twelve point variance between them?

2015 and the Brexit vote were watershed events for polling. They've all changed their methodology but in different ways. 

The numbers are actually fairly similar until they start adjusting for turnout. That's when you start seeing the big differences with differing estimations.

They're also useful in assessing movement - so even if the actual numbers are different, seeing how polls from the same company move with time are a useful indicator to who's picking up and losing support. 

[waterfalls212434]

40 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

I bet you're fun to have a break-time political discussion with

No tories mate, im fine. haha working class doesnt mean stupid.

[waterfalls212434]

Just seen a video posted by a friend of mine and labour activist on my fbook of our local tory mp sheryl murray....she had her son standing up in a husting today taking photos of and even intimidating people who questioned her to harshly.......unconfirmed report he even put an elbow into a 50 year old woman to push her out the way as she tried to question murray upon leaving the hustings......this is what we are fighting. fucking vile people, the local media will have the video soon im sure so hopefully karma will play its part!
 

 

[Over40_MidLifeCrisis]

2 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

13 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

Just seen a video posted by a friend of mine and labour activist on my fbook of our local tory mp sheryl murray....she had her son standing up in a husting today taking photos of and even intimidating people who questioned her to harshly.......unconfirmed report he even put an elbow into a 50 year old woman to push her out the way as she tried to question murray upon leaving the hustings......this is what we are fighting. fucking vile people, the local media will have the video soon im sure so hopefully karma will play its part!
 

 

Nice voting history there https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24875/sheryll_murray/south_east_cornwall

 

 

[EasyUserName]

12 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

 ... unconfirmed report he even put an elbow into a 50 year old woman to push her out the way as she tried to question murray upon leaving the hustings......this is what we are fighting. fucking vile people ...

So ... speculation? 

 

So there is a video (taken by someone) of another person taking photos of other people? 

 

No offence, but your post is rather full of emotive words there.  

[waterfalls212434]

8 minutes ago, Over40_MidLifeCrisis said:

 

shes fucking disgusting, she blocks anyone on her social media who questions her,(local lib dem is keeping tally about 80+ people now we know of shes `blocked` simply for questioning her) she refused to attend any husting other then the 1 today because she thought they were `setup by the opposition` and she just basically snears at anyone who has a problem with her and looks down on them as if they dont matter. 

and yes the voting history, thats what I personally was `blocked by sheryl` for questioning her on... under an interview clip she posted where she was talking about what shes done for local people on low incomes I merely asked how she could claim to care about people on a low income when she votes for the party line all the time including on such measures as for the bedroom tax and against cracking down on rogue landlords.......a valid question...obviously not to sheryl!

Edited June 3, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[waterfalls212434]

10 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

So ... speculation? 

 

So there is a video (taken by someone) of another person taking photos of other people? 

 

No offence, but your post is rather full of emotive words there.  

I wont post the video because its not mine to share but basically disabled woman sat down questioning Sheryl over her stance on that issue. son gets up, marches over to her, stands right in front of her, people yell at him to sit down, he gets abusive, then starts taking pictures of people who question sheryl......im sorry but that is not acceptable behaviour. something tells me this is going to bite her on the arse big time if it gets in the media. it really doesn't look good on her. (`edit` oh yes she also made the comment `I think food banks are a good thing` that was caught on video as well....as I said she really doesnt come good out of it!)

 

Edited June 3, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[EasyUserName]

3 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

I wont post the video because its not mine to share but ...

I guess then it's hard to comment without seeing it. 

 

You're the only one (on here) who can judge it, as you're the only one (one here) who's seen it.

 

You've made your view on it plain.  I'm interested to see it when you feel that is it approriate to link to. 

[waterfalls212434]

4 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

I guess then it's hard to comment without seeing it. 

 

You're the only one (on here) who can judge it, as you're the only one (one here) who's seen it.

 

You've made your view on it plain.  I'm interested to see it when you feel that is it approriate to link to. 

its on my friends private facebook page, Ill share it if im able but id never share something like that without permission esp when it links to her page with photos of her kids etc.

Edited June 3, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[EasyUserName]

1 minute ago, waterfalls212434 said:

its on my friends private facebook page, Ill share it if im able but id never share something like that without permission esp when it links to her page with photos of her kids etc.

It's fine WF, it's just that you came on here with a rather emotive post, but not with the source.  As you say, if it is as you say it is, it will make it's way into the main stream. 

 

I see as an aside, that there is another London incident.  Not good news at all.

[waterfalls212434]

2 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

It's fine WF, it's just that you came on here with a rather emotive post, but not with the source.  As you say, if it is as you say it is, it will make it's way into the main stream. 

 

I see as an aside, that there is another London incident.  Not good news at all.

thats an understatement. fucking human beings an intelligent race my arse! no other species hurts and kills each other for such stupid fucking reasons.

[babyblade41]

9 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

thats an understatement. fucking human beings an intelligent race my arse! no other species hurts and kills each other for such stupid fucking reasons.

and that statement we can agree on 

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

thats an understatement. fucking human beings an intelligent race my arse! no other species hurts and kills each other for such stupid fucking reasons.

And no other species helps and nurtures each other for so long 

[babyblade41]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

And no other species helps and nurtures each other for so long 

That is true, sadly a minority think differently.  

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

Corbyn has had a great campaign

It has to be acknowledged that he's done remarkably well at closing what was a massive gap that few expected to close by that much at the start.

But can it really be called a good campaign? There's still no suggestion that he might perhaps be ahead, and the tories have had the worst campaign anyone can remember. 

Losing can't be called good when its only winning that makes a difference. Start calling it good if he wins.

Edited June 4, 2017 by eFestivals

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, babyblade41 said:

That is true, sadly a minority think differently.  

I know, but I work with a lot of survivors of childhood sexual abuse, physical abuse, torture, etc etc people can be truly cruel and horrific (beyond which you can imagine), so it's always important for me to remember that people can also be very kind, resilient, caring.

[Mr.Tease]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

It has to be acknowledged that he's done remarkably well at closing what was a massive gap that few expected to close by that much at the start.

But can it really be called a good campaign? There's still no suggestion that he might perhaps be ahead, and the tories have had the worst campaign anyone can remember. 

Losing can't be called good when its only winning that makes a difference. Start calling it good if he wins.

I think it can, just as Teresa May can run a horrifically bad campaign and still win- doesn't make her campaign good. Certainly stuff we can take from it (though I won't have any idea until the dust has settled)

Edited June 4, 2017 by Mr.Tease