Don't vote Tory

[clarkete]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If the manifesto is so beyond criticism and Corbyn loses by more seats than Miliband, care to tell me what you'll be saying to Corbyn? There's only one right answer (and it's the same right answer as it was 2 years ago).

Ooh, is it "you may not ever succeed, but by annoying Neil so much you're the labour leader of our hearts?"

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, clarkete said:

Ooh, is it "you may not ever succeed, but by annoying Neil so much you're the labour leader of our hearts?"

If you hate the poor and want to do nothing for them because your principles are more important, yep.

This is the problem. It's not just me-me-me that has a vote.

[Spindles]

I don't think voting Corbyn shows ANY evidence of hating the poor.  Putting more time, effort and venom than anyone else into opposing the viewpoint of "Don't vote Tory"?  That might be another matter.

[DeanoL]

36 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I very much hope I do.

Wouldn't it be great if we were about to get a Labour govt? I could tell you again why we won't.

In what circumstances would we be about to get a Labour government?

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

In what circumstances would we be about to get a Labour government?

one where there was an electable leader, rather than a leader who holds too many marginal views.

If May is the dreadful that Corbynistas say she is, why can't Corbyn beat her?

Edited June 5, 2017 by eFestivals

[arcade fireman]

Don't think Corbyn calling for May to resign three days out from a GE is a particularly wise move. At worst it might come across to some like he's capitalising a bit much on what happened. And if the electorate really want May out, then she won't be PM by the end of the week. 

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, Spindles said:

I don't think voting Corbyn shows ANY evidence of hating the poor.  Putting more time, effort and venom than anyone else into opposing the viewpoint of "Don't vote Tory"?  That might be another matter.

Yeah, because anyone who speaks the truth as they see it must be supporting the tories and must be a tory.

It's that stupidity which got us here in the first place.

Do you want a Labour govt who can help make people's lives better, or do you only want to polish your "my principles are beyond question" badge?

Edited June 5, 2017 by eFestivals

[arcade fireman]

36 minutes ago, Spindles said:

I think the manifesto delivered has given us the best chance we have had to be elected.  I don't think we would have had such a popular set of policies under the limited number of candidates that opposed Corbyn, all of whom were offering more of the policies that the electorate has turned their backs on twice in the last 7 years.  I don't believe that the country would be rallying around Owen Smith right now.

Probably save most of this discussion until we see the final result, but despite Labour's manifesto obviously being quite popular (hence the polling rise) bringing it back to policies all the time misses the other great glaring failures of his leadership. 

If the Tories get returned to government with a larger majority, or indeed if they just stay in power despite their catastrophic dementia tax etc, would you say it's because they had the better policies? Or even the most popular ones?

Owen Smith was the only challenger to Corbyn (bar Angela Eagle) as most of the other possible contenders quickly realised they would've been on hiding to nothing amongst the leadership.

I'm quite happy still suggesting Andy Burnham would have been a much better leader than Corbyn and it's a real shame he lost that leadership election in 2015.

But we shall see what happens. If Corbyn manages to force a hung Parliament he deserves to stay, despite the fact I'll have a niggling feeling a better leader would have led to an actual Labour government. 

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

one where there was an electable leader, rather than a leader who holds too many marginal views.

If May is the dreadful that Corbynistas say she is, why can't Corbyn beat her?

But if we're doing better in the polls (which I assume is how we are defining electable) then thr election would not have been called.

[5co77ie]

Interesting that the Daily Fail is starting to turn on May just because she has a small cabal of trusted confidants that are part of inner circle - hasn't this always been true of politicians in power on both sides of the House. To level that as an issue in the piece by Piers Morgan seems a strange one to me.

 

[eFestivals]

Just now, DeanoL said:

But if we're doing better in the polls (which I assume is how we are defining electable) then thr election would not have been called.

it would have been at some point, where the unelectable would still be unelectable.

And Corbyn is not doing better in the polls than Miliband did. You know, the geezer than Corbynistas say is a failure, meaning Corbyn will be a bigger failure (if the polls are right, tho there's no sensible reason to doubt them).

[5co77ie]

9 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it would have been at some point, where the unelectable would still be unelectable.

And Corbyn is not doing better in the polls than Miliband did. You know, the geezer than Corbynistas say is a failure, meaning Corbyn will be a bigger failure (if the polls are right, tho there's no sensible reason to doubt them).

At the moment isn't he polling higher?

 

Edited to add poll % for 2015:   https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

David Cameron’s party 39% with Labour  33%.... the Liberal Democrats is unchanged, on 8%. Ukip drops back two points to 7%, which leaves them tied for fourth place with the Green party, who are also on 7%, recovering by three points after having fallen to just 4% in March.

 

Edited June 5, 2017 by 5co77ie

[DeanoL]

Not until 2020. And honestly with Brexit and the likelihood of another awkwardly small Tory government I'd expect to see another GE ahead of 2022. I'd imagine once the boundary changes go through the Tories will want to solidify their lead.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

At the moment isn't he polling higher?

the collapse of UKIP and the LibDems is not Corbyn's doing (unless you want to say he campaigned for brexit and so caused it)?

The part that matters is the gap between Labour and the tories. Without closing that gap Labour are further away from govt.

[arcade fireman]

Yeah I have to agree. Comparing Miliband and Corbyn's vote % is pointless. This is the closest we have been to a two party state since the 1970s - at least in England.

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Not until 2020. And honestly with Brexit and the likelihood of another awkwardly small Tory government I'd expect to see another GE ahead of 2022. I'd imagine once the boundary changes go through the Tories will want to solidify their lead.

yeah, let's keep up with the pretence and self-serving narratives, instead of facing up to the fact of Corbyn. 

Will you be posting after Thursday that Corbyn losing is the best result, so that the tories own brexit? There's a lot of it about already, as people start to get their excuses for failure in early.

Edited June 5, 2017 by eFestivals

[5co77ie]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the collapse of UKIP and the LibDems is not Corbyn's doing (unless you want to say he campaigned for brexit and so caused it)?

The part that matters is the gap between Labour and the tories. Without closing that gap Labour are further away from govt.

But you said it was bigger than Morriband, the week of the election:

 

https://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1428916827292/ICM_poll_130415.svg

 

suggests the remaining parties are pretty much identical to 2015. There was a 7% gap in this week equivalent in 2015, it's currently around 4% as that table shows. I make that higher?

In terms of share too 38% Corbyn is higher than 33% Milliband

Still won't win but he is closer than Moses Milliaband

 

 

Edited June 5, 2017 by 5co77ie

[FatAmmy]

Those polls are all over the place - I can't imagine drawing many concrete conclusions from them

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

But you said it was bigger than Morriband, the week of the election:

https://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1428916827292/ICM_poll_130415.svg

suggests the remaining parties are pretty much identical to 2015. There was a 7% gap in this week equivalent in 2015, it's currently around 4% as that table shows. I make that higher?

I didn't quite say what you've claimed, and what you reference only works in Corbyn's favour by selectively picking a poll from now to compare with.

On a 'poll of polls' basis (the only safe way, given the changes in polling methods), Corbyn is nowhere close.

Edited June 5, 2017 by eFestivals

[5co77ie]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the collapse of UKIP and the LibDems is not Corbyn's doing (unless you want to say he campaigned for brexit and so caused it)?

The part that matters is the gap between Labour and the tories. Without closing that gap Labour are further away from govt.

YouGov (the largest sample) has for the last fortnight put the gap at 4% that's not enough for a majority - we face a coalition of chaos - well we would if Faron wasn't likely to actually jump in bed with May again.

[arcade fireman]

3 minutes ago, FatAmmy said:

Those polls are all over the place - I can't imagine drawing many concrete conclusions from them

They're pretty much all suggesting a return to power for May. Even the most generous hung Parliament ones don't give Labour quite enough support to form a government. The YouGov seat projection thing is the only one which is borderline on this - but thats suggesting some very odd things e.g. Amber Rudd to lose her seat and an independent candidate winning in East Devon. 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

yeah, let's keep up with the pretence and self-serving narratives, instead of facing up to the fact of Corbyn. 

Will you be posting after Thursday that Corbyn losing is the best result, so that the tories own brexit? There's a lot of it about already, as people start to get their defences for failure in early.

Pretence? You're the one that said with a more electable leader we might be about to be having a Labour government. Pure nonsense, as with one we wouldn't be having an election right now. The only way we ever had any shot at a Labour government right now is having someone look like they were so awful the government felt safe calling an election three years, and then being so good as to turn that around within a month of campaigning. Corbyn's given it a hell of a go and I can't think of anyone who could have done a better job in these particular circumstances, but like I say, by all means explain your fantasy scenario about how we could have a Labour government next week.

The eventual "success" of Corbyn will be hard to judge because it won't be apparent until 2020 unless May is returned with a significantly larger majority. He's potentially given them two more years. He's potentially given them a larger majority. He's also potentially cut that majority.

[5co77ie]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I didn't quite say what you've claimed, and what you reference only works in Corbyn's favour by selectively picking a poll from now to compare with.

On a 'poll of polls' basis (the only safe way, given the changes in polling methods), Corbyn is nowhere close.

sorry I missed this poll of polls poll - where is that?

I just tend to use this:

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

 

[Mr.Tease]

29 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

Don't think Corbyn calling for May to resign three days out from a GE is a particularly wise move. At worst it might come across to some like he's capitalising a bit much on what happened. And if the electorate really want May out, then she won't be PM by the end of the week. 

Its a gamble - the papers will likely say he's capitalising on terrorism (despite them using it all campaign long) desperate, etc but, the key thing is whether it resonates with voters- do they feel May failed to keep them safe or do they feel she will keep them safe/safer than Corbyn? I've no idea, I'm very out of touch! 

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I didn't quite say what you've claimed, and what you reference only works in Corbyn's favour by selectively picking a poll from now to compare with.

On a 'poll of polls' basis (the only safe way, given the changes in polling methods), Corbyn is nowhere close.

I'm not sure that is safe. It assumes the new methodologies meaningfully average out into anything. It seems more likely to me (as in 2015/Brexit) that one polling company will be spot on and the others completely wrong. That's not to say the pro Corbyn one will be in anymore than the ones still predicting a Tory landslide, but given all the changes I don't think an average means anything.