2019 festival

[FakeEmpire]

Odd that they'd push BMTH back 2 weeks when everything's ready to go and they'd picked that week to guarantee a #1.   Perhaps pre-orders haven't been as strong as they'd hoped?

[Chad888]

I've done a tonne of maths whilst bored at work today, plotting algorithms etc. I put in every headliner from the last 10 years and there progression up through the festival over the preceding 15 years. Also looking at album releases/sales, popularity at the time and todays current album and charts and downloads. I found a clear progression through the ranks in order to headline, generally the bands play once every 3-4 years on average. Over half of the bands have played the festival 3 or more times rising up through the stages FR, NME, up the spots on the Main Stage. Half of the headliners had headlined previously. Between 4 and 6 years before - since 2000.

So based on my algorithm of releases in the time between 1/1/18 and 1/6/19, headliners around 2013-15, secret set predictions, mega stars etc...

 

Bring Me the Horizon - 87%

1975 - 84%

Arctic Monkeys - 79%

Biffy Clyro - 78%

Drake - 76%

Imagine Dragons - 74%

Mumford and Sons - 70%

Kanye West - 69%

Bastille - 65%

21 Pilots - 65%

QOTS - 64%

Paramore - 63%

Green Day - 51%

Blink 182 - 48%

All Time Low - 45%

You me at Six - 43%

 

Some interesting names came up for sub: Tyler the Creator (assuming that he i allowed back), BBK all of them, George Ezra.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FeverDream]

1 hour ago, Chad888 said:

I've done a tonne of maths whilst bored at work today, plotting algorithms etc. I put in every headliner from the last 10 years and there progression up through the festival over the preceding 15 years. Also looking at album releases/sales, popularity at the time and todays current album and charts and downloads. I found a clear progression through the ranks in order to headline, generally the bands play once every 3-4 years on average. Over half of the bands have played the festival 3 or more times rising up through the stages FR, NME, up the spots on the Main Stage. Half of the headliners had headlined previously. Between 4 and 6 years before - since 2000.

So based on my algorithm of releases in the time between 1/1/18 and 1/6/19, headliners around 2013-15, secret set predictions, mega stars etc...

 

Bring Me the Horizon - 87%

1975 - 84%

Arctic Monkeys - 79%

Biffy Clyro - 78%

Drake - 76%

Imagine Dragons - 74%

Mumford and Sons - 70%

Kanye West - 69%

Bastille - 65%

21 Pilots - 65%

QOTS - 64%

Paramore - 63%

Green Day - 51%

Blink 182 - 48%

All Time Low - 45%

You me at Six - 43%

 

Some interesting names came up for sub: Tyler the Creator (assuming that he i allowed back), BBK all of them, George Ezra.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting! I honestly don’t know what we’re gonna get at this point. I thought BMTH were nailed on for Download, but the fact they’ve pushed back their album release to same day as end of 1975 tour as stated above has thrown a spanner in the works in terms of my prediction - as well as the predictions on the Download forum. In all honesty, I think we’ll get 2 of what you’ve mentioned (3 if we have a coheadline with The 1975 and whoever, possibly 21P) then a complete surprise, but perhaps not a shock? Maybe the return of the Biff? Who knows.

[Jericode]

Clearly Fall Out Boy are due to return again.

[Odessa]

2 hours ago, Chad888 said:

I've done a tonne of maths whilst bored at work today, plotting algorithms etc. I put in every headliner from the last 10 years and there progression up through the festival over the preceding 15 years. Also looking at album releases/sales, popularity at the time and todays current album and charts and downloads. I found a clear progression through the ranks in order to headline, generally the bands play once every 3-4 years on average. Over half of the bands have played the festival 3 or more times rising up through the stages FR, NME, up the spots on the Main Stage. Half of the headliners had headlined previously. Between 4 and 6 years before - since 2000.

So based on my algorithm of releases in the time between 1/1/18 and 1/6/19, headliners around 2013-15, secret set predictions, mega stars etc...

Bring Me the Horizon - 87%

1975 - 84%

Arctic Monkeys - 79%

Biffy Clyro - 78%

Drake - 76%

Imagine Dragons - 74%

Mumford and Sons - 70%

Kanye West - 69%

Bastille - 65%

21 Pilots - 65%

QOTS - 64%

Paramore - 63%

Green Day - 51%

Blink 182 - 48%

All Time Low - 45%

You me at Six - 43%

Some interesting names came up for sub: Tyler the Creator (assuming that he i allowed back), BBK all of them, George Ezra.

Gonna be a lot of headliners next year if Green Day are clocking in at odds on to be one, behind 12 even more likely acts. Either this is shite trolling (my algorithm puts the likelihood of this at about 99%), or you don't know what percentages mean.

[Chad888]

10 hours ago, Odessa said:

Gonna be a lot of headliners next year if Green Day are clocking in at odds on to be one, behind 12 even more likely acts. Either this is shite trolling (my algorithm puts the likelihood of this at about 99%), or you don't know what percentages mean.

Greenday performed in the golden zone for returning headliners. Thats why they are there.

 

My top 5 picks most likely, that I would be content with:

BMTH, new album, a lot of airplay, around 5 appearances in 10 years working there way up the mainstage, latest appearance was 2nd on Main Stage before a secret set which bands usually headline after.

Arctic Monkeys are a legacy band now, they headline wherever they go. They passed up on R+L this year but I can see they won't be to in demand following that Bowie imitation album and they will still draw a hell of a lot of people from Glastonbury fence.

Biffy Clyro another legacy band, they have more bangers and seem to be bigger than Foo Fighters in the UK. There latest album hit UK Gold. Worked there way up R+L stages growing with the festival (i.e. Kings of Leon announcement last year) and they fit into the golden zone 4-5 years till next Headline slot since last.

Mumford and Sons, Previous headliner, new album coming out soon and the singles are already getting a lot of airplay. They have gone number 1 platinum on all albums released and this one like it wont be different. I dont think their music is great but i enjoy it and can see the folky feel good as a way to end the festival.

Imagine Dragons, another that has been bled up the chain starting at low down spots working their way up to subbing main stage, got a good selection now of well known stadium anthem songs that get a lot of airplay targeted towards the 15-20 demographic.

 

Friday - Bring me the Horizon / Mumford and Sons

Saturday - Arctic Monkeys

Sunday - Imagine Dragons / Biffy Clyro

[Jericode]

Imagine Dragons are never headlining R&L.

I want more info on how your algorithm works because it must be wrong if All Time Low and You Me At Six have a great than 0% chance of headlining.

[Andre91]

You lost me and absolutely everyone else reading your post at Biffy seem to be bigger than Foo Fighters in the UK  

[Stuielooie]

Imagine Dragons can you not

[HeyPorter]

Legacy bands fuck me. 

[Stuielooie]

The Cure are playing quite a few shows next summer. http://www.thecure.com/ TBH could be more likely Glasto?

[justanothername]

"plotting algorithms"

Lol

[The All Round Ball :|]

Sorry, but I love Biffy but did someone say they are bigger than Foo Fighters in the UK. Fml ??

[Gucci Piggy]

4 hours ago, Stuielooie said:

The Cure are playing quite a few shows next summer. http://www.thecure.com/ TBH could be more likely Glasto?

Yeah they're doing Glasto according to Neil. Wouldn't be booked for R&L nowadays anyway.

[Odessa]

4 minutes ago, Gucci Piggy said:

Yeah they're doing Glasto according to Neil. Wouldn't be booked for R&L nowadays anyway.

Could they headline the NME stage

[Gucci Piggy]

4 minutes ago, Odessa said:

Could they headline the NME stage

Yes.

Edit: When the rumours started in 2012 people genuinely suggested this.

Edited October 23, 2018 by Gucci Piggy

[19liam75]

Not that is was likely at all but Slipknot confirmed for Download so thats them out the equation

[dentalplan]

No Def Leppard either.

[Dukey]

BMTH not announced, makes them a little more likely for R&L I guess

[The All Round Ball :|]

Greenday did a secret set at R&L, headlined the year after.

Foals did the same.

BMTH did a secret tent set this year, could that mean they are set to headline 2019? 

Just a thought.

Also, people were saying Foo Fighters might finally do Download due to them being at festivals around that time but never got announced for Download. Could that make them more likely for R&L? 

[NerdsNatterings]

1 minute ago, The All Round Ball :| said:

Greenday did a secret set at R&L, headlined the year after.

Foals did the same.

BMTH did a secret tent set this year, could that mean they are set to headline 2019? 

Just a thought.

Also, people were saying Foo Fighters might finally do Download due to them being at festivals around that time but never got announced for Download. Could that make them more likely for R&L? 

Queens of the Stone Age dud a secret set in 2017, but didn't headline in 2018

[The All Round Ball :|]

7 minutes ago, NerdsNatterings said:

Queens of the Stone Age dud a secret set in 2017, but didn't headline in 2018

Good point. Yeah I was just thinking about stuff  

[Dukey]

Foo's

T1P/BMTH

Drake

That's my current guess - I feel 1975 will be at Glasto and headline R&L in 2020.

[Mattymooz]

11 minutes ago, Dukey said:

T1P

I get 21P and TOP but this is just fucking with my head...

[Chad888]

36 minutes ago, The All Round Ball :| said:

Good point. Yeah I was just thinking about stuff  

QOTSA were due to perform last year but had a change of heart after and wanted to do their own shows. They were meant to be Headlining after the secret set.