Football 17/18

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, Retro P said:

Yaya Toure apparently wants to continue his career in England, can’t imagine him mucking it in a relegation battle. Crystal Palace will be all over him I reckon. 

west ham i would have thought would be an option as well

[eFestivals]

5 hours ago, mjsell said:

https://www.rousingthekop.com/2018/05/04/bizarre-leak-on-uefa-website-says-liverpool-have-won-the-champions-league/

 

 

 

I'm guessing it's because they've put pages together ready for either team winning, and somehow the Liverpool page got published.

I often put pages together here in advance of a story I know is coming, and publishing them in error is very easy.

----

Congrats to Brighton for coming up and staying up.

 

[pink_triangle]

8 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

Why?

I think a lot of it is having the opportunity to be in the right place at the right time, which many dont have. Many are written off after one bad experience.

Even in job there are so many external factors. Change of ownership, bad luck with injuries, players having personal problem, changes in finances, other clubs getting investment etc that you have limited control 

[HeyPorter]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

west ham i would have thought would be an option as well

Big Sam loves himself an aging former superstar, Everton wouldn’t be a bad shout and local for him. Surely they’ll be getting back to their Europa cup spot chasing ways next seasons. 

[CRW5252]

1 hour ago, pink_triangle said:

I think a lot of it is having the opportunity to be in the right place at the right time, which many dont have. Many are written off after one bad experience.

If you put yourself out there, you can dramatically increase your chances of 'being in the right place at the right time'. I would argue that many of these managers you are referring to also write themselves off. A perfect example is Shearer. If he really wanted to be a manager then he could have joined a club lower in the leagues after he struggled at Newcastle. Instead he just gave up and turned to punditry.  Conversely, you can look at someone like Roy Hodgson who has been written off numerous times, even early in his career, but has kept on coming back and proving he's a good manager.

2 hours ago, pink_triangle said:

Even in job there are so many external factors. Change of ownership, bad luck with injuries, players having personal problem, changes in finances, other clubs getting investment etc that you have limited control 

Most of these factors exist in a normal managerial job outside of football. The best managers will be able to deal with these issues. I'm a believer that if your good enough you will rise to the top eventually. It's just a matter of commitment. 

Of course there are elements of luck involved but saying that luck is as much as a factor as talent is hugely unfair on those who have reached the top through hard work and dedication. I think you would learn a lot if you did some research on the early careers of managers like: Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger, Jorge Sampaoli, Jose Mourinho, Arrigo Sacchi, Marcelo Bielsa etc... These all created their own luck.

[pink_triangle]

2 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

If you put yourself out there, you can dramatically increase your chances of 'being in the right place at the right time'. I would argue that many of these managers you are referring to also write themselves off. A perfect example is Shearer. If he really wanted to be a manager then he could have joined a club lower in the leagues after he struggled at Newcastle. Instead he just gave up and turned to punditry.  Conversely, you can look at someone like Roy Hodgson who has been written off numerous times, even early in his career, but has kept on coming back and proving he's a good manager.

Most of these factors exist in a normal managerial job outside of football. The best managers will be able to deal with these issues. I'm a believer that if your good enough you will rise to the top eventually. It's just a matter of commitment. 

Of course there are elements of luck involved but saying that luck is as much as a factor as talent is hugely unfair on those who have reached the top through hard work and dedication. I think you would learn a lot if you did some research on the early careers of managers like: Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger, Jorge Sampaoli, Jose Mourinho, Arrigo Sacchi, Marcelo Bielsa etc... These all created their own luck.

Take Ferguson as an example he was allowed some years without success at man utd, if he was managing again he wouldn't have had the opportunity. He also had the fortune of Liverpool being on the slide and the fact Chelsea and City didn't get their money 10 years earlier. He was in the right place at the right time.

There are also jobs which the manager is destined to fail and these are often written off and don't work again. I have no doubt there are managers throughout the English pyramid good enough to win premiership and champions league but will never get the chance. 

My view is you need that combination of talent and the external factors to go your way.

[zahidf]

Stoke relegated

also, well done Woy

 

[CRW5252]

9 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Take Ferguson as an example he was allowed some years without success at man utd, if he was managing again he wouldn't have had the opportunity. 

Not sure what you mean by this. Please can you clarify? 

10 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

 He also had the fortune of Liverpool being on the slide and the fact Chelsea and City didn't get their money 10 years earlier. He was in the right place at the right time.

 

This isn't anything to do with luck, this is what was happening in the football world when he took over. There were also plenty of factors working against him.

He earned himself the job at United by doing well at his previous jobs. As I said before, if you put yourself out there and do well you dramatically increase your chances of 'being in the right place at the right time'.  You don't achieve over 20 years of consistent success by chance. 

24 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

 

There are also jobs which the manager is destined to fail and these are often written off and don't work again. I have no doubt there are managers throughout the English pyramid good enough to win premiership and champions league but will never get the chance.

Please see my previous point regarding managers writing themselves off. 

 

28 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

My view is you need that combination of talent and the external factors to go your way.

I agree but I would say it is 90% talent and 10% external factors, rather than the 50:50 you suggest.

[kaosmark2]

5 minutes ago, CRW5252 said:

I agree but I would say it is 90% talent and 10% external factors, rather than the 50:50 you suggest.

At what tier are you talking? As if you're talking the lower Prem tier, Pardew has had far more chances to achieve jack shit than Curbishley had considering his major successes.

[pink_triangle]

19 minutes ago, CRW5252 said:

Not sure what you mean by this. Please can you clarify? 

This isn't anything to do with luck, this is what was happening in the football world when he took over. There were also plenty of factors working against him.

He earned himself the job at United by doing well at his previous jobs. As I said before, if you put yourself out there and do well you dramatically increase your chances of 'being in the right place at the right time'.  You don't achieve over 20 years of consistent success by chance. 

Please see my previous point regarding managers writing themselves off. 

 

I agree but I would say it is 90% talent and 10% external factors, rather than the 50:50 you suggest.

Money is far more of a factor than talent, assuming money is an external factors.

[CRW5252]

19 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

At what tier are you talking? As if you're talking the lower Prem tier, Pardew has had far more chances to achieve jack shit than Curbishley had considering his major successes.

All tiers. 

Not sure what you  are suggesting really. Is there any evidence that Curbishley has been rejected from lots of jobs? I think it is more of case of him not wanting to get back into football at the moment.

[pink_triangle]

23 minutes ago, CRW5252 said:

Not sure what you mean by this. Please can you clarify? 

This isn't anything to do with luck, this is what was happening in the football world when he took over. There were also plenty of factors working against him.

 

He was fortunate a team gave him 6 or 7 seasons to win a league. Not many teams would have during that period, none of the big teams would today.

He was then lucky to be in a period where there wasn't much competition or teams to match their financial power. 

He took advantage of the fortune to use his talent to win all those trophies. However there was a lot of things he couldn't control that happened to facilitate that.

[CRW5252]

6 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Money is far more of a factor than talent, assuming money is an external factors.

Money is a huge factor for the success of a club but not for the success of a manager over their whole career.

A great manager can deal with a variety of different circumstances.

[CRW5252]

7 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

He was fortunate a team gave him 6 or 7 seasons to win a league. Not many teams would have during that period, none of the big teams would today.

 

Why have you decided that is down to fortune? The club saw a lot of potential in him and therefore remained patient. 

 

9 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

 

He was then lucky to be in a period where there wasn't much competition or teams to match their financial power. 

 

He made that luck by doing well in his previous jobs and United only continued to have so much money due to his success. Even when Chelsea and Man City started to outspend United, Ferguson still continued to lead United to huge success.

 

19 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

 

He took advantage of the fortune to use his talent to win all those trophies. However there was a lot of things he couldn't control that happened to facilitate that.

That's exactly what makes a great manager. The ability to adapt to change and ensure the team performs at the highest level possible no matter what the external factors are.

I will say it again, you can't achieve over 20 years worth of success by chance. 

[kaosmark2]

56 minutes ago, CRW5252 said:

All tiers. 

Not sure what you  are suggesting really. Is there any evidence that Curbishley has been rejected from lots of jobs? I think it is more of case of him not wanting to get back into football at the moment.

I'm sure he applied for Villa when they were struggling in the Prem at one point. He's definitely applied for at least two or three since leaving West Ham.

To say that luck/chance/opportunity are far less relevant than talent is naive. Pardew got his job at Newcastle because of a bet a few weeks after being sacked by Southampton when they were in League 1! Of course you can't have success, particularly the sustained success than Ferguson had without it, but to suggest that external factors such as timing and strength of other teams have only a 10% impact on a career is crazy.

[CRW5252]

5 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

I'm sure he applied for Villa when they were struggling in the Prem at one point. He's definitely applied for at least two or three since leaving West Ham.

 

I have no idea. Personally think it was mainly media talk though.

 

10 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

 

To say that luck/chance/opportunity are far less relevant than talent is naive. Pardew got his job at Newcastle because of a bet a few weeks after being sacked by Southampton when they were in League 1! Of course you can't have success, particularly the sustained success than Ferguson had without it, but to suggest that external factors such as timing and strength of other teams have only a 10% impact on a career is crazy.

I think that you naive in thinking that circumstance plays such a huge part. You can look at one set of circumstances and feel that a manager got lucky/unlucky at a particular time but to suggest a manager's success over their whole career is dictated by 50% luck is hugely naive.

You are using Pardew as the exception that proves the rule. The vast majority of managers get their job on merit. 

[JSmurphy]

Blimey. West Brom have beaten Spurs. 

[kaosmark2]

15 minutes ago, CRW5252 said:

I think that you naive in thinking that circumstance plays such a huge part. You can look at one set of circumstances and feel that a manager got lucky/unlucky at a particular time but to suggest a manager's success over their whole career is dictated by 50% luck is hugely naive.

You are using Pardew as the exception that proves the rule. The vast majority of managers get their job on merit. 

I'm not making any comment on what % it is impacted, I'm just dismissing your 10%, that's the only time I've seen anyone state it's any specific proportion.

Flavour and name of timing clearly play a big impact. Neville managing Valencia? Giggs? There's a string of ex-footballers who get a fairly big job without proving themselves first. Even good managers get jobs off the situation and timing. Hughton wouldn't have had the opportunities at Birmingham, Norwich, and Brighton if he hadn't got 15 months at Newcastle purely because Ashley couldn't find anyone cheap after getting relegated.

Names stick around as well, going back a bit, Souness managed to be voted "worst manager of all time" at three different clubs and still had a 20 year management career! 

Also, you, like many others, are misusing "the exception that proves the rule". That phrase is coined off things like "no parking on Sundays" giving the explicit implication that you can park there the rest of the week. It doesn't mean that counter-examples prove your own point.

[jyoung]

@Hugh Jass Must be kicking yourself? Positive signs but presuming you do go down, championship a different kettle of fish. 

Ps. Cheers for doing one over on Spuds.

[CRW5252]

9 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

I'm not making any comment on what % it is impacted, I'm just dismissing your 10%, that's the only time I've seen anyone state it's any specific proportion.

Pink Triangle said: "Then again when it comes to management luck is probably as much a factor as talent."

Not a specific proportion but it is effectively one.

10 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Flavour and name of timing clearly play a big impact. Neville managing Valencia? Giggs? There's a string of ex-footballers who get a fairly big job without proving themselves first.

That isn't luck, that is because they already have a reputation due to their playing career. Of course ex-pros are going to get more opportunities as a manager and so they should as they are more likely to be better managers (I would like emphasise the more likely). 

15 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Even good managers get jobs off the situation and timing. Hughton wouldn't have had the opportunities at Birmingham, Norwich, and Brighton if he hadn't got 15 months at Newcastle purely because Ashley couldn't find anyone cheap after getting relegated.

He would have got his chance eventually if he kept working hard. As I have said before, you make your own luck. All great managers have had to seize the opportunities when they do come. Just like you have to in every career if you want to be successful. 

19 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Names stick around as well, going back a bit, Souness managed to be voted "worst manager of all time" at three different clubs and still had a 20 year management career! 

He had a career but not a successful one which is the whole point of my argument. 

20 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Also, you, like many others, are misusing "the exception that proves the rule". That phrase is coined off things like "no parking on Sundays" giving the explicit implication that you can park there the rest of the week. It doesn't mean that counter-examples prove your own point.

I meant it in the sense that you were using Pardew as an example and implying that it applies to all managers careers. It is very uncommon that a manager gets a premier league job after getting sacked by a League 1 team. It is much more common that a manager gets a job because they deserve it. 

I know this is probably the incorrect way of using this term but it isn't important to this debate. 

[CRW5252]

47 minutes ago, JSmurphy said:

Blimey. West Brom have beaten Spurs. 

Would be great to see Darren Moore get a chance. Surely earned it now 

[pink_triangle]

5 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

Money is a huge factor for the success of a club but not for the success of a manager over their whole career.

A great manager can deal with a variety of different circumstances.

Is Pep a great manager? We have no evidence of how he manages without money. I strongly disagree a manager can use his reputation from being successful with money, to ensure he gets another  big money  move.

[mjsell]

9 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Is Pep a great manager?

No

[pink_triangle]

5 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

Why have you decided that is down to fortune? The club saw a lot of potential in him and therefore remained patient. 

 

He made that luck by doing well in his previous jobs and United only continued to have so much money due to his success. Even when Chelsea and Man City started to outspend United, Ferguson still continued to lead United to huge success.

 

That's exactly what makes a great manager. The ability to adapt to change and ensure the team performs at the highest level possible no matter what the external factors are.

I will say it again, you can't achieve over 20 years worth of success by chance. 

 

5 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

Why have you decided that is down to fortune? The club saw a lot of potential in him and therefore remained patient. 

 

Yet many other clubs in the same situation would have made a different decision. With social media today he could never have lasted that long whatever the potential

5 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

 

He made that luck by doing well in his previous jobs and United only continued to have so much money due to his success. Even when Chelsea and Man City started to outspend United, Ferguson still continued to lead United to huge success.

 

 

He lead them to success but it dropped off compared to when they weren’t around. If the City and Chelsea owners came in 10 years earlier, I’m certain he would have won less.

5 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

That's exactly what makes a great manager. The ability to adapt to change and ensure the team performs at the highest level possible no matter what the external factors are.

I will say it again, you can't achieve over 20 years worth of success by chance. 

I didn’t say it was by chance. I said a combination of skill and fortune.To say a great manager can adapt whatever the external factors is ridiculous, if a club runs out of money the team are going down the league however great the manager is.

[pink_triangle]

3 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

 

That isn't luck, that is because they already have a reputation due to their playing career. Of course ex-pros are going to get more opportunities as a manager and so they should as they are more likely to be better managers (I would like emphasise the more likely). 

 

While ex pros are more likely to be better than someone who hasn’t played. I would dispute that being a better player makes you more likely to succeed than an average one. In the week Gerrard got the Rangers job, we (Wrexham) appointed Sam Ricketts from a coaching perspective they are pretty much equally qualified and I would say equally likely to succeed or fail. If Ricketts fails he probably won’t get an opportunity to succeed again, Gerrard probably would.

3 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

 

He would have got his chance eventually if he kept working hard. As I have said before, you make your own luck. All great managers have had to seize the opportunities when they do come. Just like you have to in every career if you want to be successful. 

 

My guess is that if a Russian millionaire hadn’t pumped money into Bournemouth that Eddie Howe would have never got the chance to manage in the premiership no matter how hard he worked. 

3 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

 

He had a career but not a successful one which is the whole point of my argument. 

 

I would argue it wasn’t unsuccessful either, certainly in relation to the vast majority of managers, but that’s a different debate!

3 hours ago, CRW5252 said:

It is much more common that a manager gets a job because they deserve it. 

I think that depends how you define deserving. Did Pep and Zidane deserve top jobs, depends what criteria you use.