Brexit Schmexit

[LJS]

I thought we might need a separate thread to follow our government's strong and stable Brexit negotiations.

It seems to have started well...

"The UK appears to have conceded to the EU's preferred order for the talks which will mean trade negotiations do not begin immediately" (BBC)

 

"Britain caved in to the EU on the opening day of the Brexit talks, when it agreed to settle its “divorce” before trying to negotiate a future trade deal.

In a major defeat, Brexit Secretary David Davis was forced to drop his central demand for the two strands of the negotiations to be staged in parallel, within hours of arriving in Brussels." (Independent)

 

Britain appears to cave in to demands to discuss the terms of divorce before trade talks can begin. 

(Daily Mail)

[eFestivals]

i don't doubt the tories will fuck it up - Labour too, come to that - but the 'cave in' stories are ridiculous. It was pretty much accepted that's how the order of business would be when the EU published their negotiating position a couple of months ago.

And, while I'm not sure it's 100% correct, Davis suggested he'd got a concession, that none of it is 100% agreed until everything is agreed - so the order of business doesn't appear to make much difference anyway.

Meanwhile, the EU are demanding that EU citizens in the UK have greater guaranteed rights than British citizens have (making the Corbyn 'guaranteed' rights for EUers worthless, btw), making British citizens 2nd class citizens in their own country ... which is not the sane negotiating position of an organisation with respect for the sovereignty of other sovereign bodies. 

We live in interesting times.

[LJS]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

i don't doubt the tories will fuck it up - Labour too, come to that - but the 'cave in' stories are ridiculous. It was pretty much accepted that's how the order of business would be when the EU published their negotiating position a couple of months ago.

And, while I'm not sure it's 100% correct, Davis suggested he'd got a concession, that none of it is 100% agreed until everything is agreed - so the order of business doesn't appear to make much difference anyway.

 

The order of negotiations may well have been inevitable, but that's not what Davies was saying a few weeks back...

"A few weeks ago, when the Tories believed they would win an election landslide, David Davis told me on Peston on Sunday that the "row of the summer" would be his opposition to the EU's desire to negotiate money we owe, the rights of migrants and Ireland's borders before talking about a trade deal."

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-19/whatever-happened-to-daviss-and-mays-brexit-row-of-the-summer/

It may only serve to show that Davies is a buffoon & a windbag, which I guess most of us knew anyway 

[zahidf]

11 minutes ago, LJS said:

The order of negotiations may well have been inevitable, but that's not what Davies was saying a few weeks back...

"A few weeks ago, when the Tories believed they would win an election landslide, David Davis told me on Peston on Sunday that the "row of the summer" would be his opposition to the EU's desire to negotiate money we owe, the rights of migrants and Ireland's borders before talking about a trade deal."

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-19/whatever-happened-to-daviss-and-mays-brexit-row-of-the-summer/

It may only serve to show that Davies is a buffoon & a windbag, which I guess most of us knew anyway 

Davies didnt realise the EU had to negotiate as a bloc as well

 

 

[zahidf]

 

Sounds like a great idea

[LJS]

Theresa May was the ‘only Cabinet member to block rights of EU citizens’

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/theresa-may-cabinet-member-block-eu-rights/

bloody difficult woman.

[lost]

Sounds like she actually did the right thing from today's news and that the EU are happy to use peoples lives as bargaining chips. No similar guarantee from the EU regarding British citizens in EU countries. The papers seem to think the EU want their courts to overrule British courts in cases involving EU citizens which is a completely ridiculous position.

The Germans though have come out and said todays offer is a good one. It seems the deloitte report yesterday regarding the effect on the german car industry of no deal has put the fear of good up them. Hopefully there will be some divisions opening up between the 27 that we can exploit:

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/deloitte-study-finds-german-car-industry-severely-hit-no-deal-brexit/

[LJS]

4 hours ago, lost said:

Sounds like she actually did the right thing from today's news and that the EU are happy to use peoples lives as bargaining chips. No similar guarantee from the EU regarding British citizens in EU countries. The papers seem to think the EU want their courts to overrule British courts in cases involving EU citizens which is a completely ridiculous position.

I think that is a misrepresentation of the EU position. Will we accept the Spanish or Italian courts deciding the fate of UK citizens living in their countries?

The fact is there were plenty of people from all over Europe living in each other's countries perfectly legally & happily until we decided to fuck it all up. The onus is on us to sort out the mess we've made. 

There is mounting evidence that our cynical "people are bargaining chips" policy is causing skilled workers we desperately need to either leave , if they are already here or not come in the first place. 

 

[lost]

1 hour ago, LJS said:

I think that is a misrepresentation of the EU position. Will we accept the Spanish or Italian courts deciding the fate of UK citizens living in their countries?

 

Well I think we would, We currently accept UK citizens being prosecuted in other countries for things which are not illegal or carry much more lenient sentences here.  As far as I understand it the EU want Eu rights for EU citizens in a country which will be outside the EU. Other countries outside the EU where EU citizens have moved obviously don't provide this.

I think the german position is probably much more realistic as they said its a good start and we will hopefully decide on a sensible compromise which is where sadly the negotiation was needed. 

Edited June 23, 2017 by lost

[Comfy Bean]

If.....we had a general election within the next couple of years and the Tory DUP thing ended up out on it's arse, are negotiations back to square one ?

Does everything agreed get added to like a final list for sign off at the conclusion or are parts formally agreed and signed off as we go along.

Hopefully this makes sense :-)

[pink_triangle]

On 6/23/2017 at 11:13 PM, LJS said:

 

The fact is there were plenty of people from all over Europe living in each other's countries perfectly legally & happily until we decided to fuck it all up. The onus is on us to sort out the mess we've made. 

Unfortunately that's democracy and we were on the losing side. However what we can't do is go into the negotiations blindly agreeing to all the terms of the other side because we are naughty children.

[eFestivals]

On 6/23/2017 at 11:13 PM, LJS said:

I think that is a misrepresentation of the EU position. Will we accept the Spanish or Italian courts deciding the fate of UK citizens living in their countries?

Yes. 

Care to tell me any time the UK has suggested it should have the right to over-rule the laws of another soveriegn state?

The UK might on occasions complain to another sovereign state about the effect of their laws on UKers, but that's something entirely different.

Meanwhile the EU has put down in black and white that EU law should apply to EUers in the UK after the UK is no longer in the EU. It's a crock of shit.

 

On 6/23/2017 at 11:13 PM, LJS said:

The fact is there were plenty of people from all over Europe living in each other's countries perfectly legally & happily until we decided to fuck it all up. The onus is on us to sort out the mess we've made. 

nope. The onus is on each country to decide how they wish to handle the issue of UKers within their country (tho they've agreed to let the EU take on this role for them, even tho the EU has no treatied role for doing this), no differently to how it is for the UK to decide for EUers here.

It's called sovereignty. Haven't you understood what you've been wanting for Scotland?

 

On 6/23/2017 at 11:13 PM, LJS said:

There is mounting evidence that our cynical "people are bargaining chips" policy is causing skilled workers we desperately need to either leave , if they are already here or not come in the first place. 

I don't really think it's just that. I spent some of last weekend chatting with a very pissed-off German who now can't regard much about the UK in the same way she did previously. It's the fact of the vote in the first place, the having to do things differently to now if they choose to stay, etc, etc, etc. It's a feeling of being unwanted, I'd say, where 'people are bargaining chips' doesn't play much of a role.

I'd say the 'bargaining chips' bit only really plays a part within the fact that nothing is sorted a year on and they're still in limbo - which of course is a decent reason for them to be pissed off, but it's not a one-sided thing. The EU have chosen to not sensibly progress things by demanding sovereign rights over another sovereign body, and in an area where there's nothing similar anywhere else in the world; it's not just the UK that can be an arse.

Unfortunately much of that upset is actually being caused by the EUers here having got used to the greater freedoms in the UK than they might have in their own country. Having to register to get the same rights after brexit is, apparently, not a nice thing for the UK to do, but little thought is given to the fact that in almost all EU countries (or is it all? I'm not sure) immigrants have always had to register ... and so that 'dislike' of the UK is often driven by the UK starting to do what their place of origin has always done.

(and in some cases some of those EUers in the UK *did* used to have to register [depending how long they've been here], so it's actually really only a return to what they've already had to do long ago - but even that is apparently wrong, too).

There's also the 20% cut in wages they've had (via the pound falling) for those EUers in the UK who are still making strong references back to their home country. Given how big a chunk 20% is - would you happily accept a 20% cut in wages? - I don't think this is playing a small part in things, either.

[eFestivals]

On 6/24/2017 at 11:59 AM, comfortablynumb1910 said:

If.....we had a general election within the next couple of years and the Tory DUP thing ended up out on it's arse, are negotiations back to square one ?

Does everything agreed get added to like a final list for sign off at the conclusion or are parts formally agreed and signed off as we go along.

Hopefully this makes sense :-)

I'm pretty sure that there'll only be one real 'sign off' of what gets agreed, at the end of the process - tho bits that get agreed along the way (such as EUers rights in the UK and vice versa, might do, perhaps) will be considered as-good-as signed-off when agreed.

If the govt changed, whether any already-agreed bits have to be revisited would be dependent on whether a new govt wanted to accept what had been agreed by the negotiations of the previous govt. As that's dependent on a whole range of different factors it's just-about impossible to say whether stuff might have to be revisited.

Personally tho I can't see an election until after March 2019 at very earliest - unless, for some reason, a good win looks certain for the tories (tho I think they might be shy of risking that again, given what's just happened). I just can't see the tories wanting to hand over brexit to Labour via an election unless the tories think they can poison Labour by letting them carry the brexit can.

Edited June 29, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

On 6/23/2017 at 11:13 PM, LJS said:

There is mounting evidence that our cynical "people are bargaining chips" policy is causing skilled workers we desperately need to either leave , if they are already here or not come in the first place. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/29/brexodus-eu-nationals-citizenship-uk-brexit

while this article is just one person's view, it shows that it's about the whole range of issues that brexit has brought onto EUers in the UK, and that when they're free to pick a country and the one they've picked turns out to not be how they were thinking they might pick another one instead.

But, I think, I'm not entirely sure there'll really be too much of that going on from the ones who had already mentally made the UK their new home. Don't forget a very large chunk of those who arrived years ago had already left before the brexit vote - because for many their stay in the UK was always going to be temporary.

I suspect it's going to be more about making the minds up to leave of those who might have otherwise stayed but who might well have left anyway, and the much-more-significant place from where people are 'lost' will be with far fewer new EUers arriving, and that's the part that will cause the most shrinkage.

 

Also within it is their take of the people issue...

Quote

And so more and more well-educated EU nationals are realising they have chosen the wrong country in which to build a life. Never mind the “fair and serious” offer that Theresa May made this week to settle our status. The real problem with the offer is not that it is unfair but that it cannot logically be fair. If EU nationals kept all their rights post-Brexit they would end up with more rights than the local population, and find themselves under protection of a foreign court – first-class citizens in a country not their own. The alternative to this is Theresa May’s offer, which effectively means that unless they manage to acquire British citizenship, EU nationals become second-rate citizens in Britain.

... which is about how i see it (and i'm pleased to see the recognition of the EU trying to make Brits 2nd class citizens in their own country, which I reckon makes that likely to get dropped), but there's an error in that last sentence.

Cos EUers are already second-rate citizens in Britain, no differently to how every Brit in other EU countries is a 2nd class citizen in those. Cos only citizens get the vote!

(and just as an aside, I'll remind you that i pointed out that if the 2014 indyref had been won, the EUers in Scotland would be voting to disenfranchise themselves unless they went thru the hassle of getting citizenship - cos holyrood elections would cease to be regional and would be sovereign, so votes for citizens only! [yes i know there was an open offer of citizenship. It doesn't mean people wanted it tho]).

Edited June 29, 2017 by eFestivals

[LJS]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/29/brexodus-eu-nationals-citizenship-uk-brexit

while this article is just one person's view, it shows that it's about the whole range of issues that brexit has brought onto EUers in the UK, and that when they're free to pick a country and the one they've picked turns out to not be how they were thinking they might pick another one instead.

But, I think, I'm not entirely sure there'll really be too much of that going on from the ones who had already mentally made the UK their new home. Don't forget a very large chunk of those who arrived years ago had already left before the brexit vote - because for many their stay in the UK was always going to be temporary.

I suspect it's going to be more about making the minds up to leave of those who might have otherwise stayed but who might well have left anyway, and the much-more-significant place from where people are 'lost' will be with far fewer new EUers arriving, and that's the part that will cause the most shrinkage.

There are clearly many factors which influence people's decisions to move to, stay in or leave a country. and there is no doubt that there is more to Brexit than just the right to remain.

My point is that, given all the uncertainty with Brexit, and knowing that it is in our interests that a significant no of EU nationals stay, we should have been doing all that we reasonably could to reassure them as soon as possible after the referendum. a general commitment that EU nationals currently residing here will be allowed to stay indefinitely would have sufficed. The exact terms could still have been part of the Brexit negotiations. 

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Also within it is their take of the people issue...

... which is about how i see it (and i'm pleased to see the recognition of the EU trying to make Brits 2nd class citizens in their own country, which I reckon makes that likely to get dropped), but there's an error in that last sentence.

Cos EUers are already second-rate citizens in Britain, no differently to how every Brit in other EU countries is a 2nd class citizen in those. Cos only citizens get the vote!

(and just as an aside, I'll remind you that i pointed out that if the 2014 indyref had been won, the EUers in Scotland would be voting to disenfranchise themselves unless they went thru the hassle of getting citizenship - cos holyrood elections would cease to be regional and would be sovereign, so votes for citizens only! [yes i know there was an open offer of citizenship. It doesn't mean people wanted it tho]).

 I rather liked the franchise used in the Indyref. There is no perfect way to do this but I though t that was about as fair as you could get.

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, LJS said:

a general commitment that EU nationals currently residing here will be allowed to stay indefinitely would have sufficed.

which was given, providing that the EU were happy to do the same for British citizens in the EU.

Or do you think national govts should say "fuck our own citizens, let's favour non-citizens more than we favour our citizens"?

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, LJS said:

I rather liked the franchise used in the Indyref.

it's a franchise that the EU has given, based on Scotland's local govt status. 

Meanwhile I don't know of any country that gives a national vote to non-citizens. Do you?

11 hours ago, LJS said:

There is no perfect way to do this but I though t that was about as fair as you could get.

It was certainly the logical way to do it, to use the local govt franchise for a local govt vote.

I'm less sure that stands up very well when the matter being voted on is one of sovereignty, which is one of the reasons I was happy-ish with the franchise used for EUref. It should be those committed to the country who commit the country to a future path (and [just] residence is not a commitment to that country).

I was merely pointing out what happens if the vote had been won. What is currently a local govt vote becomes a sovereign vote, and so the franchise changes to what is standard for a sovereign vote (and the white paper made that pretty clear, tho you argued back at the time that it didn't say that).

Edited June 30, 2017 by eFestivals

[LJS]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

which was given, providing that the EU were happy to do the same for British citizens in the EU.

That's not a commitment then. 

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Or do you think national govts should say "fuck our own citizens, let's favour non-citizens more than we favour our citizens"?

No, and giving the commitment I'd suggested would in no way be "fucking our own citizens.

[LJS]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

it's a franchise that the EU has given, based on Scotland's local govt status. 

Meanwhile I don't know of any country that gives a national vote to non-citizens. Do you?

No idea, Neil.

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

It was certainly the logical way to do it, to use the local govt franchise for a local govt vote.

You're funny.

[eFestivals]

Just now, LJS said:

That's not a commitment then. 

it's an absolute commitment.

And that lovely EU, that's so much nicer than the evil UK? Remind me again about  how the nice guys give their commitment.... oh, you can't,m can you? Cos it turns out the nice guys aren't as nice as the evil UK.

 

Just now, LJS said:

No, and giving the commitment I'd suggested would in no way be "fucking our own citizens.

it would be abandoning them in favour of non-citizens.

While there's part of me that wouldn't have too much of a problem with that happening (after all, they've lessened their commitment to the UK by choosing to live elsewhere), I'll be mighty surprised if I ever see a national govt anywhere in the world giving better preference to non-citizens than citizens. 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, LJS said:

No idea, Neil.

The answer is 'none'.

Including for an indy Scotland according to the white paper (which you willfully chose to misunderstand at the time).

 

2 minutes ago, LJS said:

You're funny.

It's funny to state the truth, that holyrood is local govt?

You should take it up with that lovely EU, for dumbing down on your wonderful country.

[LJS]

12 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's an absolute commitment.

And that lovely EU, that's so much nicer than the evil UK? Remind me again about  how the nice guys give their commitment.... oh, you can't,m can you? Cos it turns out the nice guys aren't as nice as the evil UK.

 

Was this written by a six year old?

Quote

it would be abandoning them in favour of non-citizens.

While there's part of me that wouldn't have too much of a problem with that happening (after all, they've lessened their commitment to the UK by choosing to live elsewhere), I'll be mighty surprised if I ever see a national govt anywhere in the world giving better preference to non-citizens than citizens. 

Whist I don't accept you either/or premise, if push came to shove, I would absolutely prioritise retaining skilled EU workers over fighting to allow folk to stay in their sunny retirement homes.

...& yes I know not all brits abroad are retired to Spain.

[eFestivals]

Just now, LJS said:

Was this written by a six year old?

nope, so I guess it was read by a 5 year old.

 

Just now, LJS said:

Whist I don't accept you either/or premise, if push came to shove, I would absolutely prioritise retaining skilled EU workers over fighting to allow folk to stay in their sunny retirement homes.

...& yes I know not all brits abroad are retired to Spain.

That's a view, and you're welcome to it.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, govts exist to represent that country's citizens, and not the citizens of other countries. 

Have you not yet worked out why Sturgeon says - and you vote in support of - 'putting Scotland first' and not "putting everyone else in the world first before Scotland"?

Get back to me when Sturgeon says she favours non-Scots over Scots.

[mjsell]

So in the last few months it appears brexit (maybe not brexit but the uncertainty that has driven the pound down) has started to make an impact on the company I work for. They have announced that they will be making redundancies and basically cost cutting (hiring freezes etc) due to financial problems. 

Our managering director made an office speech and in no uncertain terms did put an element of blame at the feet of brexit. As a marketing company we are reliant on some big companies for contracts and P&G have just cut their marketing budget by a vast sum of money, which is having a direct impact on the revenue put company receives. 

My manager who was idiotically staunch pro-brexit went suspiciously quiet afterwards

[zahidf]

56 minutes ago, mjsell said:

So in the last few months it appears brexit (maybe not brexit but the uncertainty that has driven the pound down) has started to make an impact on the company I work for. They have announced that they will be making redundancies and basically cost cutting (hiring freezes etc) due to financial problems. 

Our managering director made an office speech and in no uncertain terms did put an element of blame at the feet of brexit. As a marketing company we are reliant on some big companies for contracts and P&G have just cut their marketing budget by a vast sum of money, which is having a direct impact on the revenue put company receives. 

My manager who was idiotically staunch pro-brexit went suspiciously quiet afterwards

He really is a big moron. Hope hes happy.

TAKING BACK CONTROL