Brexit Schmexit

[eFestivals]

no quotes from twitter about the £50bn, zahid? Why's that then?

 

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

no quotes from twitter about the £50bn, zahid? Why's that then?

 

um i did post about it.

Here is another one

 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

um i did post about it.

Here is another one

 

ah, the few, not the many.

You must be a tory. :lol:

[zahidf]

34 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

ah, the few, not the many.

You must be a tory.

?

 

 

[eFestivals]

32 minutes ago, zahidf said:

?

the vast majority of twitter comments about the £50bn are saying "fuck off EU, we should pay you nothing".

Polling by ICM the other day showed that 77% of people are against paying even £40bn.

This is a sticky moment for the govt, and not one that favours the remainers.

 

32 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Yep, the EU knows what sectors its regulations impact into and how.

Which is why those reports that Davis has are going to disappoint you, I think. They'll be not much more than a list of impacts, which anyone half-smart could collate for themselves (yep, even Starmer. Who didn't collate anything at all, he just sat on his arse nodding along with brexit-Jez).

 

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the vast majority of twitter comments about the £50bn are saying "fuck off EU, we should pay you nothing".

Polling by ICM the other day showed that 77% of people are against paying even £40bn.

This is a sticky moment for the govt, and not one that favours the remainers.

 

Yep, the EU knows what sectors its regulations impact into and how.

Which is why those reports that Davis has are going to disappoint you, I think. They'll be not much more than a list of impacts, which anyone half-smart could collate for themselves (yep, even Starmer. Who didn't collate anything at all, he just sat on his arse nodding along with brexit-Jez).

 

I can think of one way to avoid paying a BREXIT bill...

This is LEAVES price for leaving the EU. As a remainer, i say cancel Brexit to avoid the payment

[eFestivals]

48 minutes ago, zahidf said:

As a remainer, i say cancel Brexit to avoid the payment

As a remainer, I *KNOW* that cancelling brexit *GUARANTEES* the payment.

Cancelling brexit doesn't make that bill go away. These are things we've committed to pay for as a member of the EU.

[eFestivals]

51 minutes ago, zahidf said:

This is LEAVES price for leaving the EU. 

fake news.

It's the bill for EU membership.

[zahidf]

Hard to disagree

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Hard to disagree

it's quite easy, actually.

It's not a bill for leaving, it's a bill for membership.

If we remain we pay that AND MORE.

And we don't get a single thing back for that payment, leave or stay. (it's not an amount before payments to the UK, it's the remaining cost after payments back to the UK have been taken from the greater amount that will be paid).

I'm a remainer, but it hasn't turned me stupid or has me lie about truths. Our membership of the EU comes at a cost, and a cost that others might consider is better spent here than there.

[ThomThomDrum]

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/11/29/irish-history-to-be-written-on-side-of-a-bus-for-british-people/

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, ThomThomDrum said:

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/11/29/irish-history-to-be-written-on-side-of-a-bus-for-british-people/

History is history. Ireland has skin - sovereignty - in this game, and anything of the past isn't relevant here.

As for the people of NI, ultimately they have the power via a majority to tear any new border that might be created down, should they wish to. There is no compulsion from the UK onto them (as might be said for Scotland).

=================

Just saw this this* posted at the Guardian, and thought it nails it:-
(* edited a little by me, to remove the rather stupid use of 'ulster' and 'eire')

Quote

There are 3 incompatible goals here: The Nationalist to avoid a hard border between Ireland and NI, the Unionist to avoid a hard border between NI and the rest of the UK, and the Brextremists to avoid a customs union with the EU. Any two of these can be achieved, but not all three.

Each side is lobbying hard to make sure they are not the one that gets sold out.

 

If you really want to talk history and sell-outs, there's more than one other in this game with the history of sell-outs. Ireland needs to watch its back as much as it watches the UK.

Edited November 29, 2017 by eFestivals

[sjseabass]

On 28/11/2017 at 7:03 AM, eFestivals said:

It takes two to negotiate.  The UK can ask for something, no more or less than the EU or Ireland can.

Both sides have asked for something, and both are telling the other they can't have what they've asked for. 

How come you've decided that only the EU's ask can be valid? That's not a valid negotiating position, either.

I'm not claiming the UK's position is smart, I'm pointing out that The 'threat' of Ireland is at least as fucking stupid.

If Ireland refuses to discuss a softer border, Ireland is deciding all by itself that it wants the hardest of borders.

The UK is asking for a unicorn, and has published a position paper about its amazing hypothetical unicorn-hunting machine, which it doesn't have any proper blueprints for but claims will have up and running in a year.

Ireland says 'We'd like a bit more detail about how this unicorn-hunting machine is actually going to work, please, and a commitment that you won't fuck everything up if it turns out you can't build the machine or maybe, just maybe, that the unicorn doesn't actually exist'.

And you think those two positions are as reasonable as each other? Honestly?

Quote

The GFA is broken (if it is) by the post-EU new border arrangements, not by the fact of leaving the EU. 

Ireland's 'threat' makes that clear. Otherwise Ireland wouldn't be able to make that threat, a threat about the UK having left the EU where Ireland say it doesn't break the GFA if the UK does what Ireland says.

If Ireland are the ones imposing the new border arrangements without allowing anything but that hardest of borders, it's Ireland's choice alone.

If Ireland wants to shift responsibility back to the UK, Ireland has to show willingness to talk rather than refusing to.

Actually, it is broken by the fact of leaving the EU - there's loads of references to joint membership of the EU and its institutions, and the EU's role in peacekeeping (including funding). It's all going to need to be amended.

But it is at least feasible that that can be done. The border is the real issue. 

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

The UK is asking for a unicorn, and has published a position paper about its amazing hypothetical unicorn-hunting machine, which it doesn't have any proper blueprints for but claims will have up and running in a year.

all entities are allowed to shift position. If that wasn't the case, we'd have never joined the EU in the first place, and the EU couldn't have been formed in the first place.

The UK (and Ireland, and everyone else, too) joined the EU in the first place by (in effect) shafting other countries. Making those commitments to the EU caused other committments to be ended. It's the same in reverse, too.

Just because one entity doesn't like how another entity is changing position doesn't get to mean that no change can be made.

Those are simply the facts of the world. Get used to them, instead of expecting everyone else to conform to only what you want.

If you object to the fact of consequences, stop the world, you want to get off. 

If we pan out your idea here, Jez can never be PM or implement what he wants to. If you're signing up to everything that means, do let me know. Otherwise, planet earth is here.

 

Quote

Ireland says 'We'd like a bit more detail about how this unicorn-hunting machine is actually going to work, please, and a commitment that you won't fuck everything up if it turns out you can't build the machine or maybe, just maybe, that the unicorn doesn't actually exist'.

And the UK is pointing at the EU and saying what the EU and UK agree will be what it is. 

If the EU - and Ireland - are saying there can be nothing, fair enough: Ireland gets nothing. Ireland has to accept the consequences of its own position no more or less than the UK has to accept the consequences of its position.

But Ireland says it doesn't want nothing. Also fair enough. Then it has to let the process run and see where it gets to. 

The UK accepting Ireland's diktat just because it's Ireland's diktat is as likely as Ireland accepting a similar diktat from the UK. That's because BOTH have sovereignty, as well as the consequences of their sovereignty.

 

Quote

And you think those two positions are as reasonable as each other? Honestly?

Both sides have the right to 'demand' something of the other. Both sides have the right to reject what the other wants.

It's no more or less reasonable for Ireland to want something from the UK as it is for the UK to want something from Ireland.

That's how equality works. That's how sovereignty works.

 

Quote

Actually, it is broken by the fact of leaving the EU - there's loads of references to joint membership of the EU and its institutions, and the EU's role in peacekeeping (including funding). It's all going to need to be amended.

The UK can (in theory and in practice - if both sides can agree to do it) leave the EU and have everything the same on the ground in Ireland.

If one side - Ireland - refuse to talk about how that might happen, then that side are implementing the outcome, not the UK.

I thought the Jezza gang were all about how anything can be resolved by talking?

If someone won't even agree to talk to try and find an outcome, they cannot be not free of all guilt for that outcome.

I'm not saying that Ireland should accept anything - apart from accepting that if a solution can be found it will be found by talking, and not by not-talking.

 

Quote

But it is at least feasible that that can be done. The border is the real issue. 

The border exists because of the will of the people of Ireland, not by the will of the people of the UK. It's been that since 1998. The border can be removed by the will of the people of Ireland, with each side of that border having to want it (one side can't impose on the other).

if they want to remove the border, they will. If they don't want to remove the border, they won't.

The outcome? It's called the result of "democracy".

You don't have to like all democratic outcomes, but I hope you like the fact that IS a democratic outcome?

Edited November 30, 2017 by eFestivals

[feral chile]

21 hours ago, eFestivals said:

it's quite easy, actually.

It's not a bill for leaving, it's a bill for membership.

If we remain we pay that AND MORE.

And we don't get a single thing back for that payment, leave or stay. (it's not an amount before payments to the UK, it's the remaining cost after payments back to the UK have been taken from the greater amount that will be paid).

I'm a remainer, but it hasn't turned me stupid or has me lie about truths. Our membership of the EU comes at a cost, and a cost that others might consider is better spent here than there.

our leaving the EU comes at a cost too. without the benefit of being a member.

and there are way higher costs that this one.

[russycarps]

Most british people couldnt give a shit about ireland, have no idea what the troubles were, have no idea why northern ireland is part of the uk and couldnt give a shit if it was unified with ireland or not.

sad but true.

 

[eFestivals]

28 minutes ago, feral chile said:

our leaving the EU comes at a cost too. without the benefit of being a member.

the "leaving bill" is the price of benefits we've already had from our membership, and benefits we will continue to collect into the future too. 

(just because we won't be getting full benefits in the future doesn't change that. We won't be getting full bills in the future either).

 

28 minutes ago, feral chile said:

and there are way higher costs that this one.

What you mean is you think there are (I do too).

The reality is that no one knows the truth of the future.

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, russycarps said:

Most british people couldnt give a shit about ireland, have no idea what the troubles were, have no idea why northern ireland is part of the uk and couldnt give a shit if it was unified with ireland or not.

sad but true.

 

I don't disagree. 

But NI holds its own future in its own hands, so - ultimately - nothing is being forced onto it. If no-border is more important to it than being part of the UK, it can choose no-border.

In this regard I have greater sympathies towards Scotland, which doesn't have the same choice by default.

[feral chile]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

the "leaving bill" is the price of benefits we've already had from our membership, and benefits we will continue to collect into the future too. 

(just because we won't be getting full benefits in the future doesn't change that. We won't be getting full bills in the future either).

 

What you mean is you think there are (I do too).

The reality is that no one knows the truth of the future.

I know there are.

Look at the departmental accounts.

[eFestivals]

16 minutes ago, feral chile said:

I know there are.

No, you think you do, unless you're clairvoyant?

 

16 minutes ago, feral chile said:

Look at the departmental accounts.

Which tell you nothing at all but today's score.

If you don't understand what they are - and you don't (you've just proved it) - how the fuck are they able to tell you anything?

[feral chile]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

No, you think you do, unless you're clairvoyant?

 

Which tell you nothing at all but today's score.

If you don't understand what they are - and you don't (you've just proved it) - how the fuck are they able to tell you anything?

I'm talking cost of admin alone. Never mind everything else.

We don't have any infrastructure in place at all yet. New IT systems etc.

And we have the Autumn Budget as a clue.

Edited November 30, 2017 by feral chile

[LJS]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

the "leaving bill" is the price of benefits we've already had from our membership, and benefits we will continue to collect into the future too. 

(just because we won't be getting full benefits in the future doesn't change that. We won't be getting full bills in the future either).

 

What you mean is you think there are (I do too).

The reality is that no one knows the truth of the future.

 

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

No, you think you do, unless you're clairvoyant?

 

Which tell you nothing at all but today's score. 

 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, feral chile said:

I'm talking cost of admin alone. Never mind everything else.

We don't have any infrastructure in place at all yet. New IT systems etc.

Mostly, the infrastructure is in place, and merely needs upscaling at worst. Not necessarily easy, but a long way different to starting from scratch.

There's some specific areas where there's fuck all, but as yet there's not even any certainty of needing the new for most of it.

Despite all of the "it's going badly" stuff, the world hasn't yet caved in and might not to any large degree - because it's in both sides interests to not let that happen.

 

1 hour ago, feral chile said:

And we have the Autumn Budget as a clue.

the downgraded growth can't be pinned on brexit. The UK has had a period of out-performing the global average, and now it's looking like having a period of under-performing the global average. It's what happens.

It's nothing that wouldn't have been expected without brexit.

The stories of doom about brexit would be saying huge slump, not modest growth.

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, LJS said:

 

 

what do you think i've predicted there, LJS?

The leaving bill is historical commitment debt, and no prediction of the future.

The only prediction there is the EU having a future beyond brexit. Get back to me if it turns out it doesn't have a future, and i've got it wrong.

[feral chile]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Mostly, the infrastructure is in place, and merely needs upscaling at worst. Not necessarily easy, but a long way different to starting from scratch.

There's some specific areas where there's fuck all, but as yet there's not even any certainty of needing the new for most of it.

Despite all of the "it's going badly" stuff, the world hasn't yet caved in and might not to any large degree - because it's in both sides interests to not let that happen.

 

the downgraded growth can't be pinned on brexit. The UK has had a period of out-performing the global average, and now it's looking like having a period of under-performing the global average. It's what happens.

It's nothing that wouldn't have been expected without brexit.

The stories of doom about brexit would be saying huge slump, not modest growth.

customs.