Brexit Schmexit

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

I thought you felt May was looking for a way to justify a soft brexit? this would be one! (caving in on SM/CU)

I was hoping. I didn't believe it.

But whatever, on this she can't move. The DUP won't let her.

Unless Jez is going to do a deal with her?

[sjseabass]

11 hours ago, eFestivals said:

yes it  can, if there's an equivalent deal.

An equivalent deal is perfectly possible, if there's the political will to make it happen.

Simple fact is the EU doesn't want to make it happen, but it takes two to make an agreement.

 

Not true.

It would be exceedingly difficult for the EU to codify around its existing set-up - and i don't expect them to do it - but it is not impossible.

You can even find words by Juncker or Tusk (I forget which) saying pretty much what i've said immediately above (including that the difficulties of codifying it make it not a practical option for the EU).

 

Have you seen the report from the Brexit select committee on the border today? Actual wording:

"“Our report concludes that we cannot at present see how leaving the customs union and the single market can be reconciled with there being no border or infrastructure. Even by their own admission, the government’s proposals are untested and speculative, so it has yet to set out how no border can in practice be maintained with the UK outside the single market and the customs union.”

So I repeat - if you know how it can be achieved, care to let the UK government know?

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The UK have already sent the memo to the EU, months ago. You not following?

I read it the day it was released, and again last night. Every time there's an awkward problem it just says that flexible and imaginative solutions will be required, claims that as-yet non-existent technology will solve things, and states that because a soft border is what both sides want, it will magically happen. Unicorns.

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It's not impossible. All options are possible for those that can agree to make them happen.

Why the hell should the UK be humouring Ireland? It works both ways. That's what sovereignty is. Choices - for everyone.

The UK can choose to ask for a deal. Ireland (or the EU) can refuse it. Sovereignty!

And what i raised, very specifically, was Ireland's "threat" of no further talks to address the problem. It's Ireland's right via their sovereignty to take that stance and I respect their right to take that stance.

But it's counter-productive, unless it forces the UK to change course - which is as likely as the opposite of Ireland becoming a British puppet, frankly.
(the UK might change course, but it will not be because of Ireland's stance, it will be because of everything about leaving)

If Ireland wants to force the hardest of borders onto Ireland by a refusal to talk about anything else, it can do. That's its sovereign right on its side of the border.

But given that it says it wants something softer than the hardest of borders, and something softer than the hardest of borders *will* be available (unless the EU has no intention of any sort of new trade deal), why would it choose to punch itself in the face by forcing the hardest of borders?

The hardest of borders doesn't serve anyone on the island well according to the Irish Govt, so it's fucking stupid if they cause it to be worse than it might otherwise be.

I'm not claiming anything about the UK being right with what it wants for Ireland, i'm simply pointing out that all options are its right to pursue (same for Ireland) via the sovereignty it has.

And that something better than the hardest of borders is available for the island is Ireland, if the Irish govt wants something softer than the hardest of borders.

 

Ireland are perfectly happy to have more talks. First of all, they've told the UK to stay in the customs union and single market and then all of this nonsense would be avoided. but that not being the case, all they want are actual, concrete, real-world proposals from the UK as to how leaving both and having a soft border can be achieved, or a commitment to doing nothing to impose one if it turns out not to be possible. Not in any way comparable to the UK's cake-and-eat-it guff.

[zahidf]

5 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

Have you seen the report from the Brexit select committee on the border today? Actual wording:

"“Our report concludes that we cannot at present see how leaving the customs union and the single market can be reconciled with there being no border or infrastructure. Even by their own admission, the government’s proposals are untested and speculative, so it has yet to set out how no border can in practice be maintained with the UK outside the single market and the customs union.”

So I repeat - if you know how it can be achieved, care to let the UK government know?

I read it the day it was released, and again last night. Every time there's an awkward problem it just says that flexible and imaginative solutions will be required, claims that as-yet non-existent technology will solve things, and states that because a soft border is what both sides want, it will magically happen. Unicorns.

Ireland are perfectly happy to have more talks. First of all, they've told the UK to stay in the customs union and single market and then all of this nonsense would be avoided. but that not being the case, all they want are actual, concrete, real-world proposals from the UK as to how leaving both and having a soft border can be achieved, or a commitment to doing nothing to impose one if it turns out not to be possible. Not in any way comparable to the UK's cake-and-eat-it guff.

and the UK govt chose to put a deadline on coming up with a solution within a short period of time by sending the Art 50 too early. Dont forget that mistake

[eFestivals]

13 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

So I repeat - if you know how it can be achieved, care to let the UK government know?

Just yesterday, Leo stepped back a little from his 'threat', and said something about how SM/CU was the easiest and most obvious way, but he was willing to hear other ideas.

He's willing to hear other ideas because he knows other ideas can cover it all (which is a different thing to agreeing to whatever those different ideas might be).

I think you think that I think there's something good to the UK's angle. I don't. 

I'm merely pointing out that there are DEFINITELY better options than the hardest of borders, and it's daft for Ireland to insist on the hardest of borders when softer options (that won't cover everything but will cover some of it) are very easily possible.

13 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

and states that because a soft border is what both sides want, it will magically happen. Unicorns.

You're very probably right. It's what I think too.

But between "soft border" and "hard border" is every other option, which isn't as hard as that hard(est) border.

There's a lot there that *can* be sorted, making things better for Ireland than the hardest border.

It's daft of Ireland to rule that out and insist on the hardest border.

And if Ireland wants no border they can call a border poll and have no border. They continue to have the choice of a border or no border. Ultimately Ireland is not forced to go along with the UK taking NI out of the EU.

13 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

Ireland are perfectly happy to have more talks.

To their warped agenda.

The border issue CANNOT be settled without a customs agreement between the UK and EU, which requires the UK and EU to hold talks - which Ireland has said it will stop.

If Ire;land doesn't like the outcome of those talks it can veto them at the end. Why veto them before the options have been properly explored?

 

13 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

First of all, they've told the UK to stay in the customs union and single market

and every sovereign country immediately jumps to the instruction of another country....?

This is why Ireland are being childish, no matter what the UK are being. 

 

13 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

and then all of this nonsense would be avoided.

Yeah, let's have the UK set-up dictated to the UK by foreign powers.

In case you missed it, there was a democratic vote. 

 

13 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

but that not being the case, all they want are actual, concrete, real-world proposals from the UK as to how leaving both and having a soft border can be achieved, or a commitment to doing nothing to impose one if it turns out not to be possible. Not in any way comparable to the UK's cake-and-eat-it guff.

The UK can choose to not impose a border on it's side, whether there's a deal with the EU or not. Then the EU will be the ones erecting the border, not the UK.

It's not the one sided thing you're saying it is. The EU has its sovereign right to make its own choices, as has the UK. If it's the EU forcing the border into place, it's the EU forcing the border into place.

It's not the one sided thing you're saying it is. 

[ThomThomDrum]

Neil you are making way too much of the "Irish threat" and sounding near tabloid on it. The function of the rethoric coming out of Ireland is to get the UK taking the border issue seriously, which it has not up until now. The Irish government have wanted the U.K. to come up with potential solutions prior to phase two. How phase two pans out can and will affect those solutions, but U.K. ideas and "commitments" now on the border will then shape how phase two can progress/work in that context. 

 

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, ThomThomDrum said:

Neil you are making way too much of the "Irish threat" and sounding near tabloid on it.

the tabloid stuff is going "we'll punch ourselves in the face if you don't do what we say".

Actually, cartoon stuff. No less cartoon than brexit itself.

No one forced Leo to be an idiot, just like no one forced the UK to be an idiot.

 

18 hours ago, ThomThomDrum said:

The function of the rethoric coming out of Ireland is to get the UK taking the border issue seriously, which it has not up until now.

So it's not a threat, and Leo's word can't be trusted because he doesn't mean what he says...?

 

18 hours ago, ThomThomDrum said:

The Irish government have wanted the U.K. to come up with potential solutions prior to phase two. How phase two pans out can and will affect those solutions, but U.K. ideas and "commitments" now on the border will then shape how phase two can progress/work in that context. 

The UK is saying it doesn't want a border, and has made a number of suggestions for how it might work. That's as far as it can take things without engagement from the EU/Ireland.

[zahidf]

 

[eFestivals]

the worrying stats in that are that 65% of people think brexit isn't going to hurt them personally, public services (the NHS) won't be adversely affected, and we shouldn't pay the EU what we owe.

It means that a 2nd ref is far from likely to come out against brexit. There's plenty of angles there for Farage/Gove/Boris etc to use ... and immigration is totally absent from what they've chosen to ask about in that polling.

I'd love a 2nd ref, but i'm far from sure it would come out any different. There's even a not-insignificant group of remainers who think a 2nd ref would prove that we're right to leave.

Edited December 3, 2017 by eFestivals

[ThomThomDrum]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

So it's not a threat, and Leo's word can't be trusted because he doesn't mean what he says...?

 

 

It's politics Neil. How much of the crap that comes out of any politicans can be trusted. 

Ask yourself not if what he said is "true" but why would he say it. And also look to everything else being said by him and his cronies about it. 

Boiling it down to a simple idiotic threat seems stupid to me. 

The UKs "suggestions" on the issue to date have been more like lip service than anything else. They have not taken this issue as seriously as they should have and it only seems in recent days/weeks and especially this weekend that they are. I wonder why that is? 

[eFestivals]

29 minutes ago, ThomThomDrum said:

Ask yourself not if what he said is "true" but why would he say it.

I know why he said it - and that's what makes it idiot shite.

Would Ireland do what the UK says because the UK says Ireland has to do it? Would Ireland ignore it's own electorate to do what the UK says?

And does punching yourself in the face stop you punching yourself in the face?

 

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And also look to everything else being said by him and his cronies about it. 

like your deputy PM, who says a SM/CU deal isn't necessary for no-borders?

I'm listening. Shame that others are not. 

 

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Boiling it down to a simple idiotic threat seems stupid to me. 

Precisely. Which is why I'm calling Leo out as a cock for boiling it down to a simple idiotic threat.

it's not just the UK who can be morons around this.

 

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The UKs "suggestions" on the issue to date have been more like lip service than anything else. They have not taken this issue as seriously as they should have and it only seems in recent days/weeks and especially this weekend that they are. I wonder why that is? 

You're ignoring politics now.

The UK has a govt, and that govt is held up by the DUP.  

That govt might be idiotsville, but it's still the UK govt and that ain't changing .... but if it does, it changes to a UK govt that's no less committed to a hard brexit. The SM/CU option is not an option.

So you get the hardest of borders as Leo wants, or you can have something softer which the UK is prepared to do.

That's the menu. Take your pick.

Edited December 3, 2017 by eFestivals

[lost]

That graphic by Zahdif is from the Sunday Mail. The jump in the polls for labour and demand for a second referendum is being pushed as their top story today.

I've never really got my head around the Sunday Mail being staunchly pro-remain and much further to the left than the daily mail. Apparently the two editors really hate each other. They do share the same website though and one of the comments below the article basically says "could you split the two websites off as I don't like reading stuff I disagree with" 

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by lost

[ThomThomDrum]

Idiotic is believing what a politician says to be his truth; and harping on as if it's a hard border Leo chooses  ? Thats tabloid.

We get it. You think he is an idiot and what he said was idiotic. Fair enough. He is a political tool at the end of the day in both senses of that word

You however going on about it constantly doesn't change that that his "idiocy" has folk probably taking this issue a lot more seriously now than they had been previously 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, lost said:

That graphic by Zahdif is from the Sunday Mail. The jump in the polls for labour and demand for a second referendum is being pushed as their top story today.

I've never really got my head around the Sunday Mail being staunchly pro-remain and much further to the left than the daily mail. Apparently the two editors really hate each other. They do share the same website though and one of the comments below the article basically says "could you split the two websites off as I don't like reading stuff I disagree with" 

 

Yeah they constantly undermine each others exclusive stories!

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, lost said:

That graphic by Zahdif is from the Sunday Mail. The jump in the polls for labour and demand for a second referendum is being pushed as their top story today.

I've never really got my head around the Sunday Mail being staunchly pro-remain and much further to the left than the daily mail. Apparently the two editors really hate each other. They do share the same website though and one of the comments below the article basically says "could you split the two websites off as I don't like reading stuff I disagree with" 

Yep, you're spot on. The Sunday Mail is very different to the Daily Mail.

It's a separate publication, with it's own staff and editor - an editor who sees himself in competition with Darce, and who likes to take contrary views to Dacre.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Yep, you're spot on. The Sunday Mail is very different to the Daily Mail.

It's a separate publication, with it's own staff and editor - an editor who sees himself in competition with Darce, and who likes to take contrary views to Dacre.

The mail is one of those things were the shitty racist stuff they do comes from the editor, rather than the owner like the telegraph, sun or express.

Also, this story has been confirmed

https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/936907144359587841

 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, ThomThomDrum said:

Idiotic is believing what a politician says to be his truth; and harping on as if it's a hard border Leo chooses  ? Thats tabloid.

It's his choice if the only options he offers are the hardest of borders or continued SM/CU membership. He's very likely to get the hardest of borders by doing that.

As i've pointed out, there's a million different softer border options, all of which are better than the hardest.

 

1 hour ago, ThomThomDrum said:

We get it. You think he is an idiot and what he said was idiotic. Fair enough. He is a political tool at the end of the day in both senses of that word

You however going on about it constantly doesn't change that that his "idiocy" has folk probably taking this issue a lot more seriously now than they had been previously 

I don't think it's changed a jot. Things were moving along because the UK govt had suddenly decided to move things along.

The UK govt aren't going to agree to SM/CU (at this point in time, at least).

So either Leo has to accept some vague waffling about how it might work and the details can be worked out later, or he gets the hardest of borders.

I've no idea how things will pan out this week, but if things are going to move forward to talks then it'll be because Leo has accepted very similar vague wafflings to what he previously said weren't good enough.

As I mentioned the other day, the Tusk thing was as likely about giving Lee some face-saving words to hide behind as they were about turning the temperature up on the UK. The EU will be quite happy to throw one under the bus to keep the other 26 sweet if the pressures lean that way.

[eFestivals]

Just now, zahidf said:

Also, this story has been confirmed

https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/936907144359587841

company needing to make savings makes savings shocker.

You seem to have not noticed that lovely Owen Jones keeps on writing about "the failing right wing press" in the Guardian, a publication with less than one tenth of the readership of Mail, which is losing its readership at a faster proportion than the Mail, and which has been losing money for years and not just recently and at (proportionally) ten times the rate of the Mail recently ... and judging by the increasingly desperate pleadings for readers to subscribe, doesn't have long left for this earth (It would already be gone if it wasn't for a nice bit of tax avoidance around its ownership of Auto Trader).

[zahidf]

Well

 

[lost]

Quote

Bloomberg’s source for this ‘hint’ is not immediately clear.

Portugal’s Diário de Notícias appears not to have noticed the ‘hint’ about a second referendum highlighting instead Corbyn’s pledge not to turn the UK into a European fiscal paradise “when his government is returned”.

So the person he told has alzheimer's? 

[eFestivals]

27 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well

there's too many people like you, desperate to make Jez what he isn't.

He won't give up his 40 year opposition to nukes. He's not going to give up his 40 year opposition to the EU.

*EVERYTHING* that Jez says points to out and not to in.

Even when Starmer said "we'll stay in the SM/CU while we talk about it" Jez was saying "we'll be leaving so I can carry out my programme".

Jez might get turned along the way, but he's never going to be the one leading the charge to stay in.  It's as likely that Farage will come out in favour of the EU.

[eFestivals]

29 minutes ago, lost said:

So the person he told has alzheimer's? 

 

The story put out earlier today simply says: “Asked if he was prepared to rule out a second vote ... Corbyn said his party hasn’t fixed its position on the issue”.

or alternatively.... Corbyn said his party was trying to be all things to all people

 

[zahidf]

Might have to find a new Brexit secretary soon, since David Davis will quit if Green goes.

 

[feral chile]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

there's too many people like you, desperate to make Jez what he isn't.

He won't give up his 40 year opposition to nukes. He's not going to give up his 40 year opposition to the EU.

*EVERYTHING* that Jez says points to out and not to in.

Even when Starmer said "we'll stay in the SM/CU while we talk about it" Jez was saying "we'll be leaving so I can carry out my programme".

Jez might get turned along the way, but he's never going to be the one leading the charge to stay in.  It's as likely that Farage will come out in favour of the EU.

I remember reading somewhere that he claims to have voted remain.

[zahidf]

If - if - this is correct, then regulatory "alignment" in 50-odd areas of policy would mean in effect

(a) a united Ireland in policy terms, and 

(b) part of the UK stays as part of Single Market, regardless of the referendum "mandate" that the UK leaves the EU.

 

[eFestivals]

27 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If - if - this is correct, then regulatory "alignment" in 50-odd areas of policy would mean in effect

(a) a united Ireland in policy terms, and 

(b) part of the UK stays as part of Single Market, regardless of the referendum "mandate" that the UK leaves the EU.

 

Nope.

It would remain united in policy terms - but with NI having no say. (not sure the DUP are going to have that!).

[ amusing point to all those people who screamed that the UK had to bend because it was the one who is changing things, will you now be saying that the EU is not allowed to change any policy from now, cos that would be the EU changing things...? ]

But it says nothing about "the single market" or being under the ECJ, just that the UK agrees to mirror regulations from there. 

Problem 1: it needs the EU to agree to a 3rd party regulator, which the UK has always said will be required and the EU have been saying no-way.
(the UK are right on this one. It doesn't work any other way anywhere).

This is actually the UK turning the screws as much as the other way. It's the UK saying, 'if you want sense, it has to be sense from you too'.