Brexit Schmexit

[ThomThomDrum]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

 

The UK is fucked up. It's not particularly about the tories or the DUP.

And yet Im still very surprised there is still no talk of ye taking a Mulligan!?? 

Edited December 5, 2017 by ThomThomDrum

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

May only has an agreement if she's got the HoC votes to carry it thru.

And there's probably no plan that the HoC would vote thru - certainly not SM/CU, or remaining.

May's at least trying. 

Here is David davis at the house today

D Davis faces down Rees-Mogg and tells him (politely) to fuck off.
Tells MPs 'regulatory alignment' with EU needed post Brexit
Applying to *all of the UK*
Meanwhile DUP's Dodds tells MPs how angry his party is
But adds DUP will accept UK-wide agreement

 

So the govt just have to get the hardline brexitters on board

Edited December 5, 2017 by zahidf

[zahidf]

Labour

 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I think IF the govt position was soft brexit, the remain centred PLP will vote for it to let that go ahead (despite Corbyns view)

I don't doubt a chunk of Labour would vote for it, tho those with 'leave' seats (not the jezza clique) would find it difficult.

But it would lose lots of tory support too, not because they want the hardest brexit (tho those as well) but because they couldn't agree to EU regulation with no say.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Here is David davis at the house today

D Davis faces down Rees-Mogg and tells him (politely) to fuck off.
Tells MPs 'regulatory alignment' with EU needed post Brexit
Applying to *all of the UK*
Meanwhile DUP's Dodds tells MPs how angry his party is
But adds DUP will accept UK-wide agreement

 

So the govt just have to get the hardline brexitters on board

so there you go.

2/3rds of the way to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, but something lesser than SM/CU.

The DUP will come round on that, I reckon.

[zahidf]

Just now, eFestivals said:

I don't doubt a chunk of Labour would vote for it, tho those with 'leave' seats (not the jezza clique) would find it difficult.

But it would lose lots of tory support too, not because they want the hardest brexit (tho those as well) but because they couldn't agree to EU regulation with no say.

depends on what is meant by regulatory alignment EXACTLY. It could in practice mean we adopt the EU regulations into Law wholesale.

[zahidf]

Just now, eFestivals said:

so there you go.

2/3rds of the way to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, but something lesser than SM/CU.

The DUP will come round on that, I reckon.

1/3rd?3 phases of talks...

[zahidf]

24 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I don't doubt a chunk of Labour would vote for it, tho those with 'leave' seats (not the jezza clique) would find it difficult.

But it would lose lots of tory support too, not because they want the hardest brexit (tho those as well) but because they couldn't agree to EU regulation with no say.

As above, Keir says the UK should stay in the SM and CMU

Also, this from Barnier

is Corbyn a bit more flexible than you are giving him credit for?

Edited December 5, 2017 by zahidf

[lost]

30 minutes ago, zahidf said:

is Corbyn a bit more flexible than you are giving him credit for?

When he can't nationalise anything that doesn't move at a price set by him no probably not.

[russycarps]

so we stay in the SM/CMU, will pay for the privilege, but will have no say whatsoever about anything. Everything stays the same apart from we give up our preeminent position.

What a tragic outcome. 

 

[ThomThomDrum]

Is there anything to be said for another general election/referendum/mass? 

[lost]

6 minutes ago, ThomThomDrum said:

Is there anything to be said for another general election/referendum/mass? 

If we have a GE and labour win, Corbyn goes with with sinn fein position on Ireland and loyalist terrorists take him out allowing the pro-EU moderate part of the party to take back control under Tom Watson, that maybe an option?

[Wooderson]

This thread is worse than Brexit.

[zahidf]

TAKING BACK CONTROL

 

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

TAKING BACK CONTROL

 

yep, it's why the full single market is a proper crock of shit.

A lower regulatory bind makes more sense from an awful lot of angles.

[eFestivals]

46 minutes ago, ThomThomDrum said:

Is there anything to be said for another general election/referendum/mass? 

lots. But whether we'll get one is down to the politicians.

May could resign, but then there'd only be another tory as PM, with the same problems of trying to get a majority vote behind a perhaps different version of brexit.

The fixed term parliament thing makes it difficult - as good as impossible - for May to call an election unless tory MPs agree with having one. And as many tory MPs will feel their seat and job is at risk i can't see them doing that.

And if somehow May did wangle an election and Corbyn won, things would be worse than they are now towards any solution, cos Jez is a hard brexiter who wants shot of EU rules, and would jettison NI (so the DUP will kick off), and Labour are still at the 'cake and eat it' stage of thinking which even the tories have got past, and they're just as divided on brexit as the tories. And Jez would only win an election if he promised brexit; if he doesn't he loses the quarter of his votes which came from kippers.

Another ref might - quite likely would - swing a remain win, but there's no one of substance campaigning for one or looking likely to.

It's a nightmare with few solutions - which is why I got excited yesterday when it looked like May might have found something that could work (and still might).

[eFestivals]

49 minutes ago, lost said:

If we have a GE and labour win, Corbyn goes with with sinn fein position on Ireland and loyalist terrorists take him out allowing the pro-EU moderate part of the party to take back control under Tom Watson, that maybe an option?

We could cut out the middle man, and suggest Jez dies of natural causes during the election campaign?

 

[zahidf]

13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yep, it's why the full single market is a proper crock of shit.

A lower regulatory bind makes more sense from an awful lot of angles.

ha the irony

 

 

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

lots. But whether we'll get one is down to the politicians.

May could resign, but then there'd only be another tory as PM, with the same problems of trying to get a majority vote behind a perhaps different version of brexit.

The fixed term parliament thing makes it difficult - as good as impossible - for May to call an election unless tory MPs agree with having one. And as many tory MPs will feel their seat and job is at risk i can't see them doing that.

And if somehow May did wangle an election and Corbyn won, things would be worse than they are now towards any solution, cos Jez is a hard brexiter who wants shot of EU rules, and would jettison NI (so the DUP will kick off), and Labour are still at the 'cake and eat it' stage of thinking which even the tories have got past, and they're just as divided on brexit as the tories. And Jez would only win an election if he promised brexit; if he doesn't he loses the quarter of his votes which came from kippers.

Another ref might - quite likely would - swing a remain win, but there's no one of substance campaigning for one or looking likely to.

It's a nightmare with few solutions - which is why I got excited yesterday when it looked like May might have found something that could work (and still might).

i posted some stuff earlier regarding labour changing to staying in the SM and CU

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

depends on what is meant by regulatory alignment EXACTLY. It could in practice mean we adopt the EU regulations into Law wholesale.

Quite possibly, but at a lower rate than now.

And it's likely to be short of stuff like 'free movement' (in the way it's done now, of the right to work).

Norway has far fewer EU laws within its own laws, because of its remoter relationship. Presumably what May is thinking would have even fewer than that.

[ThomThomDrum]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

lots. But whether we'll get one is down to the politicians.

May could resign, but then there'd only be another tory as PM, with the same problems of trying to get a majority vote behind a perhaps different version of brexit.

The fixed term parliament thing makes it difficult - as good as impossible - for May to call an election unless tory MPs agree with having one. And as many tory MPs will feel their seat and job is at risk i can't see them doing that.

And if somehow May did wangle an election and Corbyn won, things would be worse than they are now towards any solution, cos Jez is a hard brexiter who wants shot of EU rules, and would jettison NI (so the DUP will kick off), and Labour are still at the 'cake and eat it' stage of thinking which even the tories have got past, and they're just as divided on brexit as the tories. And Jez would only win an election if he promised brexit; if he doesn't he loses the quarter of his votes which came from kippers.

Another ref might - quite likely would - swing a remain win, but there's no one of substance campaigning for one or looking likely to.

It's a nightmare with few solutions - which is why I got excited yesterday when it looked like May might have found something that could work (and still might).

Mass it is so...........

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

1/3rd?3 phases of talks...

How i counted it was more on what yesterday indicates.

Cos that's the first acknowledgement from the EU that the sort of trade deal May has said she's wanting is on the table and is a real possibility.

Oh, and that May doesn't want the hard brexit you've been saying (tho there's been a million indicators for that one).

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Keir says the UK should stay in the SM and CMU

for the transition period.

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Also, this from Barnier

is Corbyn a bit more flexible than you are giving him credit for?

When Starmer said "in the SM & CU for transition" there was also "and out afterwards", and Corbyn also made clear that staying in wasn't an option.

They're probably talking about a similar 'SM-lite' to what May is - tho May's is probably the one more-accepting of the more-important EU rules.

(PS: if anyone says Corbyn is on the ball you know its flattery-speak and not the truth).

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

How i counted it was more on what yesterday indicates.

Cos that's the first acknowledgement from the EU that the sort of trade deal May has said she's wanting is on the table and is a real possibility.

Oh, and that May doesn't want the hard brexit SHES been saying (tho there's been a million indicators for that one).

Amended. She was the one who gave her 'red lines' meaning a hard brexit last year

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

for the transition period.

When Starmer said "in the SM & CU for transition" there was also "and out afterwards", and Corbyn also made clear that staying in wasn't an option.

They're probably talking about a similar 'SM-lite' to what May is - tho May's is probably the one more-accepting of the more-important EU rules.

(PS: if anyone says Corbyn is on the ball you know its flattery-speak and not the truth).

Its been clarified: Labour are ok with CU permanently, maybe with SM if rules change by the end of the transition period