Brexit Schmexit

[lost]

15 minutes ago, feral chile said:

 

seems it's not against the Human Rights Act:
 

 

Compulsory purchase is different to nicking someones house. 

https://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/human-rights/what-are-human-rights/human-rights-act/article-1-first-protocol-protection-property

Quote

A lack of appropriate compensation would be likely to be considered disproportionate.

Just noticed in that article it covers shares too so would cover the utilities he wants to nationalise.

Edited January 31, 2018 by lost

[sjseabass]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

we can have that (or not) with or without the EU. It's merely down to what Joe public is prepared to give up of the personal in order to put towards the common.

Our public services are shit now, while we're in the EU - because Joe Public isn't prepared to give up the personal.

(and that 'giving up' would need to go waaaay beyond the oldies that are often given the blame for everything, just to be clear. )

Ultimately in or out of the EU as you've put it above is about personal greed. 'You' don't want to risk your income being cut, which means you wouldn't want it cut to benefit public services either.

But outside the EU the pie is smaller in the first place, before it’s divided up between personal and common.

Staying in (the single market / customs union, or ideally the EU as a whole) means not having to take so much (as a %) out of the personal to get the same amount of common.

[feral chile]

3 hours ago, lost said:

Compulsory purchase is different to nicking someones house. 

https://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/human-rights/what-are-human-rights/human-rights-act/article-1-first-protocol-protection-property

Just noticed in that article it covers shares too so would cover the utilities he wants to nationalise.

oh was he advocating no compensation? I hadn't realised.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, theevilfridge said:

But outside the EU the pie is smaller in the first place, before it’s divided up between personal and common.

Staying in (the single market / customs union, or ideally the EU as a whole) means not having to take so much (as a %) out of the personal to get the same amount of common.

yep, I agree.

But given that leave voters have already - before the vote - rejected doomish-predictions &/or decided they're happy to take negative consequences to brexit, I don't really see how more doomish-predictions change anything much.

Particularly when such a high number of people are claiming they won't be personally hit by the consequences (even while they've already been hit by the consequences thru higher prices).

If enough people's minds are going to be changed to change brexit, there needs to be a different way to persuade them. Fuck knows what it is, but I'll be hugely surprised if it's these predictions.

[eFestivals]

interesting snippet in this

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers

a poll by the Best for Britain campaign group and YouGov showed shifting attitudes, with the public now expressing a preference for free trade with the EU over immigration controls.

that's one of the more-hopeful things I've read in a while.

[zahidf]

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/960146752455127041?ref_src=twcamp^copy|twsrc^android|twgr^copy|twcon^7090|twterm^1

 

[eFestivals]

16 hours ago, zahidf said:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/960146752455127041?ref_src=twcamp^copy|twsrc^android|twgr^copy|twcon^7090|twterm^1

 

as you're obviously thinking it's a "stunning" article...

Did you notice the bit where Cohen points out that Corbyn is just the tories in disguise?

[zahidf]

So where's the border going to be? Between NI and Ireland (unacceptable to Ireland and EU) or between NI and GB (unacceptable to DUP whose votes you need)? The UK govt promised *both* no border in writing in the Phase 1 negotiations. But either there is a border or we are in the CU. Every journalist's job today should be getting an answer on "where's the border then?" And I don't accept any R Kelly "I believe I can fly" or "CORBYN DOESNT KNOW AS WELL". 

[eFestivals]

28 minutes ago, zahidf said:

So where's the border going to be? Between NI and Ireland (unacceptable to Ireland and EU) or between NI and GB (unacceptable to DUP whose votes you need)? The UK govt promised *both* no border in writing in the Phase 1 negotiations. But either there is a border or we are in the CU. Every journalist's job today should be getting an answer on "where's the border then?" And I don't accept any R Kelly "I believe I can fly" or "CORBYN DOESNT KNOW AS WELL". 

Corbyn says we're out of the CU too. He's been explicit about it, and constant about it. So you're just being an unaccepting arse.

Meanwhile, the EU is able to have a new and different customs agreement with the UK if it wants to make one. It isn't obliged to only offer existing options.

That doesn't mean I think they'll make one, but they are able to do it if they want.

And regarding the UK/Ireland border, an agreement on that is in the hands of both sides, not just one. That's what sovereignty means.

The EU has said what it's priorities are, as has the UK.  Meeting in the middle is the responsibility of both sides, if both sides want to meet in the middle. Again, sovereignty, and the responsibilities that come with it.

If you're having problems with that, I suggest you need to understand what sovereignty is.

[zahidf]

50 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Corbyn says we're out of the CU too. He's been explicit about it, and constant about it. So you're just being an unaccepting arse.

Meanwhile, the EU is able to have a new and different customs agreement with the UK if it wants to make one. It isn't obliged to only offer existing options.

That doesn't mean I think they'll make one, but they are able to do it if they want.

And regarding the UK/Ireland border, an agreement on that is in the hands of both sides, not just one. That's what sovereignty means.

The EU has said what it's priorities are, as has the UK.  Meeting in the middle is the responsibility of both sides, if both sides want to meet in the middle. Again, sovereignty, and the responsibilities that come with it.

If you're having problems with that, I suggest you need to understand what sovereignty is.

Yeah, but the Tories are in govt. Whilst im not happy with Corbyns stance on the EU, the luxury of opposition means you can oppose  without TOO much detail to an extent. They are trying a balancing act (which i feel has gone a little too long).

Why should the EU and Ireland HAVE to compromise when its the UK breaking their written promises?

Also, May only seems to be doing the EU hard stance to save her own skin

 

 

[eFestivals]

21 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah, but the Tories are in govt. Whilst im not happy with Corbyns stance on the EU, the luxury of opposition means you can oppose  without TOO much detail to an extent.

go on then, tell me how he's opposed the tories when...

1. he wanted a50 triggered sooner than the tories did.

2. he voted for a50 in Parliament without any knowledge of the brexit plan he authorised (and sacked minister-MPs who didn't).

3. the Labour manifesto has the same 'cake and eat it' as the tories.

4. he keep on saying "we're leaving the CU & SM", same as the tories.

5. he has the same no-plan as the tories, and keeps on endorsing the tory no-plan.

6. the great democrat says the public can't vote on it (and he'll vote the tory deal thru, I guarantee!!).

Fucks sake. :lol:

If he opposes he shouldn't act and vote like a tory!

[zahidf]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

go on then, tell me how he's opposed the tories when...

1. he wanted a50 triggered sooner than the tories did.

2. he voted for a50 in Parliament without any knowledge of the brexit plan he authorised (and sacked minister-MPs who didn't).

3. the Labour manifesto has the same 'cake and eat it' as the tories.

4. he keep on saying "we're leaving the CU & SM", same as the tories.

5. he has the same no-plan as the tories, and keeps on endorsing the tory no-plan.

6. the great democrat says the public can't vote on it (and he'll vote the tory deal thru, I guarantee!!).

Fucks sake.

If he opposes he shouldn't act and vote like a tory!

But why free pass the Tories?

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

But why free pass the Tories?

the only free pass I'm giving the tories is over the one where I expect them to lead us back to sanity. I've never yet seen them doing sanity and don't expect them to start now.

I have just occasionally seen a bit of sanity from Labour and I'm hoping i might do again, and i'm not giving them a free pass about it.

Cos you remember how many times you've condemned Fat Dave for putting his party before the interests of the country?

Well, guess who's doing that now?? It's not just the tories.

Edited February 5, 2018 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

Yeah, but the Tories are in govt.

and Jez is giving the tories nowhere different to go by having Labour aping tory policy.

He's forcing May to *have* to accommodate her hardest brexiters, because that's the only way she has support for a brexit policy.

As one alternative possibility (among many) ....

If Jez were to offer May the votes to get a not-a-hard brexit policy thru, who knows what might happen?

Or just position Labour with an alternative policy (rather than the same one hidden behind some bullshit words).

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

and Jez is giving the tories nowhere different to go by having Labour aping tory policy.

He's forcing May to *have* to accommodate her hardest brexiters, because that's the only way she has support for a brexit policy.

As one alternative possibility (among many) ....

If Jez were to offer May the votes to get a not-a-hard brexit policy thru, who knows what might happen?

Or just position Labour with an alternative policy (rather than the same one hidden behind some bullshit words).

I see its Corbyns fault for not letting May do a softer Brexit... Im just waiting for you to blame him for Cameron calling the referendum in the first place! 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I see its Corbyns fault for not letting May do a softer Brexit.

Nope, it's Corbyn's fault for Labour wanting a hard brexit.

That means there's only a hard brexit on offer.

 

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Im just waiting for you to blame him for Cameron calling the referendum in the first place! 

He's doing *exactly* the same thing as Cameron did. Haven't you noticed?

And that's putting his own desire for power above all other things, and is happy for the country to have bad policy if it strengthens his own position.

So how come Fat Dave is a self-centred power-crazed c**t happy to shit on the country, but Jez isn't?

And worse than that, Jez even has the exact same hard brexit policy.

He might as well be Fat Dave, with a side-serving of Mogg.

[eFestivals]

New anti-Brexit party to be launched in UK with inspiration and help from France

It's probably a still-born banana, but at least someone's trying to oppose the tories.

[eFestivals]

a great comment I've just seen below an article at the guardian...

Quote

A just released Public Accounts Committee (PAC) report (.pdf) into Brexit preparations confirms what many of us project management folk have long warned. There is too much to do before 29 March 2019, and the government and civil service have barely started:
• What about the replacements for 30 or so EU agencies, incl. the internationally agreed regulation of chemicals, medicines, air safety, shipping, etc.?
• Where are those port preparations, now more urgent given we're definitely exiting the EU Customs Union?
• What is the status of those 750+ international arrangements to be renegotiated?
• How are those WTO regularisation negotiations coming along?

But, I'll not join Rees-Mogg in flogging the civil servants. Both Davis' DExEU and Green/Liddington's Cabinet Office came in for specific criticism by the PAC.

The urgency began 10 months ago, when May & Corbyn whipped their Tory & Labour MPsto vote en masse to trigger Article 50 last year, before having any idea:
• What the realistic objective (end goal) would be--why is this still unknown?!;
• What the implications might be--e.g. Irish border & Good Friday Agreement;
• What the tasks would be--e.g. establishing new agencies and recruiting thousands of personnel, from abroad if req'd, for the new bureaucracy;
• What risk factors could exist--e.g. convincing dozens of 3rd countries to agree new terms or roll over existing agreements.

Of course, the PM might yet realise it's impossible, consider her legacy--as well as the massive economic, social, and geopolitical damage to the nation--turn stateswoman, call on all sensible MPs to set aside Party politics, and set about revoking Article 50--'for the good of our country'. Then Maugham & the Scottish politicians' case would no longer be merely 'academic'... Meanwhile, we must endure more time-wasting demands from bothMay & Corbyn for 'magic cake', while businesses and families are forced to trigger their contingency plans.

And he's right. The only hope of stopping brexit is May, but there's no way May is going to risk doing that for all of the while she'd be standing almost-alone in the HoC saying it.

She needs to be sure that a changed policy has a majority behind it even if the majority isn't from her own party. There's only one way that can happen.

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by eFestivals

[feral chile]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

a great comment I've just seen below an article at the guardian...

And he's right. The only hope of stopping brexit is May, but there's no way May is going to risk doing that for all of the while she'd be standing almost-alone in the HoC saying it.

She needs to be sure that a changed policy has a majority behind it even if the majority isn't from her own party. There's only one way that can happen.

 

Yep. We are in so much shit.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, feral chile said:

Yep. We are in so much shit.

yep, and Jez is going to help ensure we're dropped in it no less than the worst tories will.

"What did you do during brexit Dad?"

"Well son, I led the opposition and did nothing at all to stop the tories taking us over the cliff. In fact I told everyone to vote the tory plans thru and sacked the ones who remained sane".

"oh Dad. You killed us all".

"But i made the tories look silly, honest son. It was worth it"

"fuck off you unprincipled self-centred vain old c**t. I'm off to find a better dad."

 

[zahidf]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

a great comment I've just seen below an article at the guardian...

And he's right. The only hope of stopping brexit is May, but there's no way May is going to risk doing that for all of the while she'd be standing almost-alone in the HoC saying it.

She needs to be sure that a changed policy has a majority behind it even if the majority isn't from her own party. There's only one way that can happen.

 

Do you think there are enough votes in the Tory party rebels (to counteract the Labour rebels in the north and dennis skinner e.t.c?)

Im not convinced there is. The tory party (and the fact they will bring May down with a leadership challenge) is clearly the ones leading us sonewhere. I blame them more than an opposition who dont REALLY have the power to do anything.

[eFestivals]

50 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Do you think there are enough votes in the Tory party rebels (to counteract the Labour rebels in the north and dennis skinner e.t.c?)

there's about 200 (in-theory) pro-EU tory MPs, and about the same in Labour.

It's do-able, but requires the will and political leadership to do what is right for the country.

And if jez doesn't do it, he's selling the country out for his hope of power, and that's the same c**tish thing Cameron did to get us here.

 

Quote

Im not convinced there is. The tory party (and the fact they will bring May down with a leadership challenge) is clearly the ones leading us sonewhere.

A lot of MPs are quite rightly wedded to the idea of respecting public vote, and there's fuck all that's outrageous within that.

The problem is that both the tories and jez jumped for a hard brexit because of the vote - May cos she needs the hard-ers to carry anything thru, and jez because he's a hard-er like the worst tory hard-er - and the only workable option all of those MPs have is to be a hard-er too.

Give them another option, and they'll be free to choose that option.

And if Jez doesn't give that option he's helping May throw us over the cliff.

 

Quote

I blame them more than an opposition who dont REALLY have the power to do anything.

I blame the morons like you who are pursuing power at the expense of the country and people's lives - just like c**ty-Dave - and your idiot narratives such as May wanting an election to go for the hardest of brexits (when the truth was the opposite), where prejudice and not brain drives every ounce of you, just like the very worst brainless tory.

More idiot is not a solution to the problems of idiots.

Edited February 7, 2018 by eFestivals

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

there's about 200 (in-theory) pro-EU tory MPs, and about the same in Labour.

It's do-able, but requires the will and political leadership to do what is right for the country.

And if jez doesn't do it, he's selling the country out for his hope of power, and that's the same c**tish thing Cameron did to get us here.

 

A lot of MPs are quite rightly wedded to the idea of respecting public vote, and there's fuck all that's outrageous within that.

The problem is that both the tories and jez jumped for a hard brexit because of the vote - May cos she needs the hard-ers to carry anything thru, and jez because he's a hard-er like the worst tory hard-er - and the only workable option all of those MPs have is to be a hard-er too.

Give them another option, and they'll be free to choose that option.

And if Jez doesn't give that option he's helping May throw us over the cliff.

 

I blame the morons like you who are pursuing power at the expense of the country and people's lives - just like c**ty-Dave - and your idiot narratives such as May wanting an election to go for the hardest of brexits (when the truth was the opposite), where prejudice and not brain drives every ounce of you, just like the very worst brainless tory.

More idiot is not a solution to the problems of idiots.

Was a soft brexit what her 'crush the saboteurs' campaign was?

 

Whats that? No? then how can YOU say that she was saying one thing but meaning the other???

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Was a soft brexit what her 'crush the saboteurs' campaign was?

oh look, you've had to invent some made-up bollocks to try and knock down what I said. :lol:

And it's precisely that sort of bollocks the worst of the tories are doing. :rolleyes:

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Whats that? No? then how can YOU say that she was saying one thing but meaning the other???

Perhaps spend a moment finding where you've left your brain?

Or provide some evidence (there is none, only your inventions) for what you're saying?

[feral chile]

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/huge-blow-wales-economy-government-14260576#ICID=FB-Wales-main

Fuck!
 

Quote

 

Wales would suffer a 9.5% hit to GDP if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit deal, according to leaked figures from a UK Government analysis of the consequences of Brexit.

The nation would see a 5.5% reduction in GDP even if the UK leaves with a free trade deal under this assessment – and there would still be a 1.5% blow if the country stayed in the single market.

The predicted losses are understood to cover a 15-year period.

The effect on jobs, businesses, livelihoods and property values of a 9.5% drop in GDP - as compared to the size of the economy if we didn't leave the EU - would be immense.

The leak comes as Theresa May and senior cabinet ministers meet to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.

The areas of the UK which would take the worst hit from a no-deal Brexit would be the Northeast of England (-16%) and the West Midlands (-13%).

According to this analysis, there is no part of the UK that would not see a reduction in GDP under any of the three scenarios.

Overall, UK GDP is expected to go down by 2% if the UK stays in the single market, by 5% if a free trade agreement is secured, and by 8% if there is no deal.

How a no-deal Brexit could hit GDP

The analysis suggests London would suffer the least

The UK capital would only see its GDP go down by 1% if the country stayed in the single market; by 2% if there is a free trade deal; and by 3.5% if there is no deal.

Vaughan Gething, the Welsh Government Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services, said: “This is not remoaners or enemies of the people – this is the UK Government’s own view of the damage done by a hard Brexit. Damage done to my communities that I represent.

“My duty to my constituents must be to stand up against the disaster of a hard Brexit.”

Cardiff South and Penarth Labour MP Stephen Doughty MP said on Twitter: “People in every corner of the United Kingdom will be shocked to see the Government’s own assessment of the damage Brexit will do to their communities. It is utterly shameful that people all across this country are having to rely on leaks to find out how much damage a hard, destructive Brexit will do to their local economies and the country as a whole.”

Mr Doughty, who is a leading supporter of Open Britain campaign which favours close links with the EU, called for the full publication of the UK Government’s research, saying: “The Government cannot continue to try and hide taxpayer funded analysis from the public, just because they’re afraid of the political consequences. The full Brexit impact assessments, along with any other economic analysis of Brexit outcomes, must be published in full, now.

“And as people learn new facts about the costs of Brexit for their communities and their industries, everyone is entitled to keep an open mind about whether or not it’s the right path for the country.”

Brexit could end up in a 'damaging and unmanageable muddle'

Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies said: “Wales has been hard hit by austerity – with public sector pay freezes, cuts in services and a benefit squeeze on the most vulnerable. Now Brexit, with reduced trade and us paying for the EU Divorce Bill, means vital infrastructure projects in South Wales like rail electrification and the Swansea Tidal Lagoon are being cut...

“These ground-breaking leaked documents show that the government know the true cost of Brexit, but have tried to keep us in the dark.”

However, DUP Brexit supporting MP Ian Paisley said the predictions were as "reliable as astrology".

Plaid Cymru's response: Keep Wales in the single market

Plaid Cymru Brexit spokesman Hywel Williams said: “These sobering statistics lay bare the devastating impact a hard Brexit would have on our economy. Just as Plaid Cymru has argued all along, remaining in the single market would be the most favourable option if we are to defend Welsh jobs and industries.

“Yet again, Wales is set to be worse off than the UK as a whole as a result of disastrous decisions taken by the Tories and unopposed by Labour in Westminster. Members of all parties should be uniting in the national interest to present the resounding case for Wales to remain in the single market and customs union.”

Mid and West Wales Plaid AM Simon Thomas said the figures showed Wales would be “shafted under any realistic scenario”.

Lib Dems say this is a 'damning outlook for Britain'

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: “This is a damning outlook for Britain. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.

“The Government need to start being clear what they are fighting for. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy.

“People did not vote to make themselves poorer. They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit.”

The Welsh Government response:

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “Our Brexit trade paper, supported by a Cardiff Business School impact study, shows the Welsh economy is best protected by retaining full and unfettered access to the European Single Market and membership of a customs union.

"This report suggests UK Government research confirms our analysis that a hard Brexit would have a catastrophic impact on Welsh jobs and the economy; reducing the economy by 8 – 10%, which is the equivalent of between £1,500 and £2,000 per person in Wales.

"We have tried wherever possible to base our Brexit policies on evidence and to publish the evidence we have. We call on the UK Government to do likewise. We do not believe the UK Government has any sound economic evidence to support its policy choices as to the sort of Brexit it is pursuing."

Here is how the UK's GDP is predicted to be hit by Brexit

East Midlands:

Single Market - 1.8%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 8.5%

Eastern:

Single Market - 1.8%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 8.0%

London:

Single Market 1.0%

Free Trade 2.0%

No Deal 3.5%

North East:

Single Market - 3.0%

Free Trade - 11.0%

No Deal - 16.0%

North West:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8.0%

No Deal - 12.0%

South East:

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 4.5%

No Deal - 7.5%

South West:

Single Market - 1.0%

Free Trade - 2.0%

No Deal - 5.0%

West Midlands:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8.0%

No Deal - 13.0%

Yorkshire & Humber:

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 7.0%

Northern Ireland:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8.0%

No Deal - 12.0%

Scotland:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 6.0%

No Deal - 9.0%

Wales:

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 5.5%

No Deal - 9.5%

UK:

Single Market - 2.0%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 8.0%

 

I'd heard 10 years, but this predicts 15.

Edited February 8, 2018 by feral chile