Brexit Schmexit

[sjseabass]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

why would they? They don't need to be for any reason at all, and unlike the rest of the world we can trust the EU standards.

WTO crisis rules are a different thing from WTO standard rules.

 

Nope, we'd be in a 100% identical place to right now - with the same standards, the same checks, and the same speeds of entry.

Which is precisely why the food scare thing is a heap of crap. 

So for everything to go off without a hitch the government has to:

1. Ignore UK law.

2. Take the piss with WTO rules, including defining the country as being in a food crisis, even though said crisis is entirely self-inflicted and avoidable.

3. Hope that the customs holdups at Dover for all other goods don’t affect food transport.

To say nothing for the reaction of our neighbours to this too.

And yet you expect nobody to be at all concerned?

[eFestivals]

37 minutes ago, theevilfridge said:

So for everything to go off without a hitch the government has to:

1. Ignore UK law.

2. Take the piss with WTO rules, including defining the country as being in a food crisis, even though said crisis is entirely self-inflicted and avoidable.

3. Hope that the customs holdups at Dover for all other goods don’t affect food transport.

To say nothing for the reaction of our neighbours to this too.

And yet you expect nobody to be at all concerned?

Yep, you've about nailed it.

There will be some screaming and shouting by WTO members, but as we're currently seeing with the USA the WTO rules don't have much bite in reality - and particularly not with shorter-term things.

I've not suggested it won't be damaging to the UK's reputation, but the govt will choose that as the lesser evil compared to inflicting a food crisis on the UK. It's a no-brainer.

[Jazz my funk]

On star trek, every planet seems to have one government that rules the world. I would prefer this to joining the non elected rulers of the EU.

Pointless having arguments on Brexit, we are leaving ? 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Jazz my funk said:

I would prefer this to joining the non elected rulers of the EU.

I would prefer that you had the first idea of what you're talking about.

The "rulers of the EU" are the elected leaders of the member states.

Go on, tell me what's "unelected" about those.

3 minutes ago, Jazz my funk said:

Pointless having arguments on Brexit, we are leaving ? 

You reckon?

As May might say, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed - including whether we're actually leaving or not.

The majority of people in the UK don't actually want to kick themselves in the nuts, and it would be 'the will of the people' and no-less democracy if there was another vote with a different result.

Edited August 2, 2018 by eFestivals

[Jazz my funk]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I would prefer that you had the first idea of what you're talking about.

The "rulers of the EU" are the elected leaders of the member states.

Go on, tell me what's "unelected" about those.

You reckon?

As May might say, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed - including whether we're actually leaving or not.

The majority of people in the UK don't actually want to kick themselves in the nuts, and it would be 'the will of the people' and no-less democracy if there was another vote with a different result.

Definitely leaving.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, Jazz my funk said:

Definitely leaving.

says you.

The country is wising up at just how fucking stupid that would be.

Nothing is agreed until it's all agreed, remember?

Nothing to say about how you were wrong about 'unelected'? Today you're a smarter bunny.

[zahidf]

 

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

it's much-less killing it than that article says.

While he defended the single market, he also made some gestures on Ireland. To me, it has the feeling of a fudge coming rather than the full death of May's plan.

From the EU side of things a fudge makes sense. It kicks the can down the road to when there might be a different govt &/or a more reasonable post-brexit trade deal, as well as ensures the EU gets its money, and removes the opportunity for the headbangers to scream "unreasonable" about the EU. And from May's side it'll mean she ain't dead yet.

So the fudge on trade will work by both sides stating a commitment to working for frictionless trade deal, but with almost nothing on the specifics of it.

Can't really see it going any other way as things stand. It might not happen cos the headbangers might try to force May to get firmer detail in the withdrawal agreement, although when they know they can't (currently) win a vote on their wants I reckon they'll be happy enough to have it kicked down the road where a more-certain cliff-edge in the future will probably give them extra leverage.

[zahidf]

Sorry ladies, Brexit means brexit 

[zahidf]

 

[eFestivals]

the problem ceased being 'the will of the people' a long time ago.

The problem is now the will of political leaders.

 

[pink_triangle]

Just now, eFestivals said:

the problem ceased being 'the will of the people' a long time ago.

The problem is now the will of political leaders.

 

Although if the trend is strongest in North England and wales it could make labour more confident supporting another referendum. The question is can they persuade their "no compromise" leader it's the right course when he has a history of supporting Brexit and will there be another general election allowing them to implement it.

[eFestivals]

17 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Although if the trend is strongest in North England and wales it could make labour more confident supporting another referendum. The question is can they persuade their "no compromise" leader it's the right course when he has a history of supporting Brexit and will there be another general election allowing them to implement it.

can't see Corbyn endorsing a change of policy as things stand. He's too wedded to brexit.

And if he did change it would be seen for what it is, reluctant - and I can't see how that would do anything but undermine his personal position as leader. So I can't see him doing it. He'd resist until removed as leader I reckon, and I can't see him being removed as leader.

Which means we're fucked if he's to be the saviour.

Best chance we have is for the pound to keep on crashing and balance of payments to keep going further south I reckon, as that gives May a strong external reason to act for the good of the country.

[feral chile]

I know we've had discussion on here about whether pointing out media manipulation is insulting the general public, my social media threw up a trail of breadcrumbs to this source of media initiated euromyths:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

[zahidf]

Bloody hell grayling is a moron

 

Edited August 16, 2018 by zahidf

[eFestivals]

pathetic whimpering from Barry Gardner and now McD, saying that we can't have democracy because of the far right.

And these geezers have been sent out there to say this very shortly after Starmer said something different, so its bleeding obvious its the normal camp corbyn tricks.

C'mon Starmer, you're smarter than this. You know what you have to do.

[russycarps]

Nothing in this thread for weeks! 

We're sleepwalking towards armageddon and even the politically aware on this forum have no desire to discuss it.

Be under no illusion, we are teetering on the brink of an utterly unprecedented event: the complete collapse of a major western economy and society. 

It is a catastrophe of such huge proportions, that human beings are not able to process it. What we are being told will happen if we crash out is so enormous, our minds wont allow us to accept it might be true. It's part of a human beings psychological self-defence. It's why we can survive times of war. 

It's a fascinating situation and will be studied by scholars for centuries. It's just a crying shame we are in the middle of it rather than observing from the sidelines.

 

 

 

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, russycarps said:

We're sleepwalking towards armageddon and even the politically aware on this forum have no desire to discuss it.

realistically, it's going to play out how it's going to play out. Only the politicians might change it, and none of them seem to have any desire to.

Personally I think May will get a deal on the exit agreement, but with the difficult stuff of the actual details of a new trade agreement being fudged to kick it down the road.

Cos that means the EU will get its money, May will have her position propped up (cos the country will heave a sigh of relief), and there'll be a transition period.

And then it'll probably all go to shit in about a year's time when the EU make clear that they'll be no new trade agreement on the fudge, and May will be back to breaking her red lines or accepting a less-free-trade deal than currently.

[russycarps]

 

32 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

realistically, it's going to play out how it's going to play out. Only the politicians might change it, and none of them seem to have any desire to.

Personally I think May will get a deal on the exit agreement, but with the difficult stuff of the actual details of a new trade agreement being fudged to kick it down the road.

Cos that means the EU will get its money, May will have her position propped up (cos the country will heave a sigh of relief), and there'll be a transition period.

And then it'll probably all go to shit in about a year's time when the EU make clear that they'll be no new trade agreement on the fudge, and May will be back to breaking her red lines or accepting a less-free-trade deal than currently.

 

It is a probable scenario. I cannot see how May can break her red line vows though. She's staked everything on them. She's a vicar's daughter. I cannot see her breaking her vows.

I am having to study the subject deeply for my job. I can categorically state that anything other than a U-turn and us remaining will fuck us. It's just a matter of whether it's by decapitation on day one, or death by a thousand cuts over a longer period of time.

Either way, the UK as we know it is doomed. Only geordie greig can save us.

Edited September 14, 2018 by russycarps

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, russycarps said:

It is a probable scenario. I cannot see how May can break her red line vows though. She's staked everything on them. She's a vicar's daughter. I cannot see her breaking her vows.

that's why I reckon there'll be a fudge, so she doesn't have to.

At this point the EU are most interested in the money cos otherwise it puts them in an awkward spot, with no countries keen to pay more and other countries really only staying in because of the money that comes from the EU. Without the UKs money the EU becomes more unstable. A fudged deal secures the UK's payments to the EU while they re-adjust what they do.

 

6 minutes ago, russycarps said:

Either way, the UK as we know it is doomed.

As a 'world leader' it always was anyway. It's a matter of when, not if.

[lost]

€500k on a new build or €350k on a derelict property that’s been redeveloped buys you Portuguese residency apparently..

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, lost said:

€500k on a new build or €350k on a derelict property that’s been redeveloped buys you Portuguese residency apparently..

Russy lives in London. He could probably sell up, buy one of those, and still have more than enough left over to live out his days in idleness.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, russycarps said:

Nothing in this thread for weeks! 

We're sleepwalking towards armageddon and even the politically aware on this forum have no desire to discuss it.

Be under no illusion, we are teetering on the brink of an utterly unprecedented event: the complete collapse of a major western economy and society. 

It is a catastrophe of such huge proportions, that human beings are not able to process it. What we are being told will happen if we crash out is so enormous, our minds wont allow us to accept it might be true. It's part of a human beings psychological self-defence. It's why we can survive times of war. 

It's a fascinating situation and will be studied by scholars for centuries. It's just a crying shame we are in the middle of it rather than observing from the sidelines.

 

 

 

Looking forward to revisiting this post in a couple of years time

Edited September 14, 2018 by Ommadawn

[russycarps]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

that's why I reckon there'll be a fudge, so she doesn't have to.

At this point the EU are most interested in the money cos otherwise it puts them in an awkward spot, with no countries keen to pay more and other countries really only staying in because of the money that comes from the EU. Without the UKs money the EU becomes more unstable. A fudged deal secures the UK's payments to the EU while they re-adjust what they do.

 

As a 'world leader' it always was anyway. It's a matter of when, not if.

But they cant fudge access to the single market. Her red lines wont allow it. Free movement and oversight by the ECJ. No amount of money can get around that. 

 

29 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

Looking forward to revisiting this post in a couple of years time

 

Can you explain, precisely, what your optimism is based on?

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, russycarps said:

But they cant fudge access to the single market. Her red lines wont allow it. Free movement and oversight by the ECJ. No amount of money can get around that. 

I don't disagree.

The fudge will involve a form of words that doesn't rule out the wants of both sides, while suggesting they'll happen but not committing to anything. "we want the same things but more talks required" or something.

Much like the agreement last December that claimed these were committed-to things while also saying nothing was agreed until everything was agreed.