The Weather Thread 2019

[The Nal]

?

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

[briddj]

8 minutes ago, Airlie said:

It was Circa Waves, I was there!  It really did bucket down at that point.

And the sun then came out just as they were about to go into T-Shirt Weather!

[Bags73]

Met Office forecast as of this morning:

Forecast for Mon 17 Jun 2019 to Fri 21 Jun 2019
General Situation: Changeable conditions are expected to dominate through much of this period, with spells of
rain and showers, keeping temperatures on the cool side or close to seasonal average. Southeastern regions
should see the best of any dry weather and will become warm for a time, but trigger criteria is not expected to be
reached.

Forecast for Sat 22 Jun 2019 to Mon 01 Jul 2019
General Situation: A ridge of high pressure will bring a good deal of fine and dry weather on Saturday, before
showery rain arrives from the west on Sunday. Unsettled conditions will follow, with showers and further spells of
rain, keeping temperatures rather cool. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-
June though, increasing the chance of settled and warm weather, however trigger criteria still unlikely to be
reached.

[Fork_UK]

7 minutes ago, Bags73 said:

Met Office forecast as of this morning:

Forecast for Mon 17 Jun 2019 to Fri 21 Jun 2019
General Situation: Changeable conditions are expected to dominate through much of this period, with spells of
rain and showers, keeping temperatures on the cool side or close to seasonal average. Southeastern regions
should see the best of any dry weather and will become warm for a time, but trigger criteria is not expected to be
reached.

Forecast for Sat 22 Jun 2019 to Mon 01 Jul 2019
General Situation: A ridge of high pressure will bring a good deal of fine and dry weather on Saturday, before
showery rain arrives from the west on Sunday. Unsettled conditions will follow, with showers and further spells of
rain, keeping temperatures rather cool. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-
June though, increasing the chance of settled and warm weather, however trigger criteria still unlikely to be
reached.

What are the trigger criteria and what do they trigger?

[Flysheet]

1 minute ago, Fork_UK said:

What are the trigger criteria and what do they trigger?

Hysterical reactions on eFests 

[xandercs12]

A lot of weather outlets showing similar stuff now ‘average with chances of above average.’ We’ll be alright, see you next weds!

[mike86]

17 minutes ago, The Nal said:

?

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Seems fine. Other than the rain next Tuesday which isn't ideal. 

[Homer]

18 minutes ago, briddj said:

And the sun then came out just as they were about to go into T-Shirt Weather!

How could anyone forget watching Circa Waves?!

[Superscally]

6 minutes ago, Homer said:

How could anyone forget watching Circa Waves?!

Great drummer.

[BambooShanks]

41 minutes ago, The Nal said:

?

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Is a bit of a shitter to have that downpour on the tuesday but otherwise it isn't too bad - it certainly is a lot better than previous forecasts from The Norwegians!

 

There's still another 5 days before the forecast becomes reliable in any way.  That is not to say I won't be obsessing in the meantime, just that there's little point stressing over a bit of rain that (hopefully) won't materialise.

 

 

[Euphoricape]

Looking more positive all the time now..

 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91894-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-summer/?do=findComment&comment=4045346

[Thunderstruck]

The ensembles are mixed for the festival period...too far out to call but it doesn't look like a 100% dry one at this point! Hopefully we have a good weekend with minimal rain.

[oldmagsy83]

I can cope with a bit of rain. Just as long as it's not like 2016 i'll be happy.

[tumbles]

Wish the Wimbledon lot would fuck off out of that thread, Glastonbury first. 

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, Kinkyinuit said:

Is a bit of a shitter to have that downpour on the tuesday but otherwise it isn't too bad - it certainly is a lot better than previous forecasts from The Norwegians!

 

There's still another 5 days before the forecast becomes reliable in any way.  That is not to say I won't be obsessing in the meantime, just that there's little point stressing over a bit of rain that (hopefully) won't materialise.

 

 

Although annoyingly, being the earliest part of the forecast, it's also the most likely to come to bear. Time will tell.

[aidenlangan95]

1 hour ago, cb4747 said:

I think it was during this point I wandered into the nearest tent to find a lady singing about pies!

Was it the Left Field tent and wasn't it a song about crumble?

[cb4747]

4 minutes ago, aidenlangan95 said:

Was it the Left Field tent and wasn't it a song about crumble?

THAT WAS IT!! my memory is so foggy of previous festivals

[BambooShanks]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Although annoyingly, being the earliest part of the forecast, it's also the most likely to come to bear. Time will tell.

I may have worded my post ambiguously.  The tuesday I was referring to was the one just before the festival with 8mm of rain.  An amount that would causes a fair whack of mud  but as it's at the end of the forecast range, there's plenty of time for that to go. 

The rain tomorrow is only 3.6 which leaves plenty of time for it to dry.

[tumbles]

Just now, Kinkyinuit said:

I may have worded my post ambiguously.  The tuesday I was referring to was the one just before the festival with 8mm of rain.  An amount that would causes a fair whack of mud  but as it's at the end of the forecast range, there's plenty of time for that to go. 

The rain tomorrow is only 3.6 which leaves plenty of time for it to dry.

I hope its just very localised like this weekend just passed. Probably had 40mm+ 20 miles up the road, Pilton had nothing. 

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, Kinkyinuit said:

I may have worded my post ambiguously.  The tuesday I was referring to was the one just before the festival with 8mm of rain.  An amount that would causes a fair whack of mud  but as it's at the end of the forecast range, there's plenty of time for that to go. 

The rain tomorrow is only 3.6 which leaves plenty of time for it to dry.

Yeah it would be gone easily with the Thursday to Saturday forecast we have for the end of this week.

Edited June 17, 2019 by briddj

[lordjord93]

BBC Weather has changed, now showing thunderstorms on the Monday before the festival followed by light rain on the Tuesday 

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, lordjord93 said:

BBC Weather has changed, now showing thunderstorms on the Monday before the festival followed by light rain on the Tuesday 

But dry and occasional sunny periods from Weds > Sunday 

[xandercs12]

3 minutes ago, lordjord93 said:

BBC Weather has changed, now showing thunderstorms on the Monday before the festival followed by light rain on the Tuesday 

Tuesday shows light rain for only a few hours, not terrible and with the ground probably dry from the few days before, should be fine. DONT PANIC

[jfaragher]

This time next week, I'll be driving the van up to site in preparation for volunteering!  As the HYPE builds, thought I'd update this with the latest model runs.

ECMWF-15

For reference, the ECMWF model is considered the best of all medium range models.  It's produced by a centre specifically set up to explore the science challenges of forecasting past the normal range (~5 days), which brings together expertise from the various European weather services and universities, and beyond.  If I had to pick one model, this would be it.

This is forecasting some awful weather this week (as expected) but then looking at average (which isn't necessarily dry!) to drier conditions from Sunday on.  The main thing to keep an eye on is whether the heavy rain this week hits the site or not - if it does, it could be a bit of a mess as the build completes / traders and the bulk of the crew arrives on the Sunday - Tuesday.  Still, I reckon even then it'll be boots till Friday-ish, and trainers for the rest, dependent a bit on how showery it is during the show.

GEFS

This US model has improved a lot over the last few years, but is still not as good as the EC.  However, that doesn't mean that sometimes it's not right when EC is wrong - this is a complex science!

Fairly similar, slight variations in timing and normal vs dry, but still the same story broadly.

 

[lordjord93]

1 minute ago, xandercs12 said:

Tuesday shows light rain for only a few hours, not terrible and with the ground probably dry from the few days before, should be fine. DONT PANIC

 

1 minute ago, tumbles said:

But dry and occasional sunny periods from Weds > Sunday 

Thank you comrades!