The Weather Thread 2019

[Homer]

11 minutes ago, lazzareo said:

Thanks ? I get it now ?

 

High pressure - good/sunny

low pressure - bad/rainy

I remember it as the rain falls down (so low)

[Euphoricape]

Metcheck forecast is looking almost perfect for the festival now. Glorious Sunshine Wednesday to saturday with a little rain on sunday.

[Homer]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

Metcheck forecast is looking almost perfect for the festival now. Glorious Sunshine Wednesday to saturday with a little rain on sunday.

Brilliant - close the thread here. Everyone stop posting now!!!

[Titters]

23 minutes ago, lazzareo said:

Help me out mate - what does this mean i.e. what is a "Low"? 

Saturday, 6pm, JPT.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

4 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Metcheck forecast is looking almost perfect for the festival now. Glorious Sunshine Wednesday to saturday with a little rain on sunday.

This is from the 00z run, not the more recent 06z run which has much more rain all day Sunday. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Glasto Weatherwatch

[T-Mouse]

7 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

70% seems terribly high ?

Its fine. I reckon there's a 90% chance they're full of shit

[ledwards]

Can someone explain these graphs in simple person terms? What does each "run" mean? 

[Charm]

1 hour ago, stopwn1981 said:

Should have been this week on reflection.

Apple weather is terrible, shows sun where I am right now but it’s actually raining. 

Charm x

[Brave Sir Robin]

Just now, ledwards said:

Can someone explain these graphs in simple person terms? What does each "run" mean? 

Different simulations of how things will pan out. You can safely ignore all of them, as they aren't reliable until 2-3 days out.

[T-Mouse]

1 minute ago, ledwards said:

Can someone explain these graphs in simple person terms? What does each "run" mean? 

Red = Good

Green = Bad

Orange = 3.6 Roentgen

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

Different simulations of how things will pan out. You can safely ignore all of them, as they aren't reliable until 2-3 days out.

Not really. You can start to see trends further out but you need the different models agreeing, not just one saying heatwave. Specifics can't be pinned down until 2-3 days though.

For instance, today's rain has been in the bank for almost a week.

Edited June 18, 2019 by briddj

[chazwwe]

12 minutes ago, joeruss said:

Wellies have been ordered.. hopefully wont need them

 So just to summarise - we think we might be okay, but we're waiting to see if there's a lot of rain coming next Mon/Tues?

Yeah pretty much, the rain from today should dry up. As long as it doens't rain too much on Monday/Tuesday it'll be a little bit muddy but should dry up. 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Just now, briddj said:

Not really. You can start to see trends further out but you need the different models agreeing, not just one saying heatwave. Specifics can't be pinned down until 2-3 days though.

But these don't agree, ergo can't be relied upon? And they all keep changing?

[psychology]

Just asked a question on Met office live about whether we will have a Spanish plume and they said it was unlikely ?

[Wallace]

6 minutes ago, briddj said:

For instance, today's rain has been in the bank for almost a week.

But it hasn't rained today where I am

[tarw]

Just now, psychology said:

Just asked a question on Met office live about whether we will have a Spanish plume and they said it was unlikely ?

Give them the finger ?

[briddj]

7 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

But these don't agree, ergo can't be relied upon? And they all keep changing?

Yeah you were clearly talking more specifically about next week! I was talking generally really.

[briddj]

5 minutes ago, Wallace said:

But it hasn't rained today where I am

It has in Pilton, where we're talking about!

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

But these don't agree, ergo can't be relied upon? And they all keep changing?

They don't at the moment, but we can't say for certain when they will start to agree. It might be 2-3 days out, it may be sooner.

[Brave Sir Robin]

12 minutes ago, briddj said:

Not really. You can start to see trends further out but you need the different models agreeing, not just one saying heatwave. Specifics can't be pinned down until 2-3 days though.

For instance, today's rain has been in the bank for almost a week.

But yet on Friday, you/these runs told us:

"It seems the better weather is now locked in for next week, with the chance of rain (possibly heavy) only on Wednesday."

 

 

[rosieangel]

V off topic but disappointed the thread about a man looking for a ticket was closed! Every single reply made me chuckle!

[Wallace]

4 minutes ago, briddj said:

It has in Pilton, where we're talking about! 

Ah right, I'm currently in the south of Spain

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

But yet on Friday, you/these runs told us:

"It seems the better weather is now locked in for next week, with the chance of rain (possibly heavy) only on Wednesday."

 

 

Yes, that possibly heavy rain is now here. Hence a trend, with specifics closer to the event.

[Cammers]

1 minute ago, Wallace said:

Ah right, I'm currently in the south of Spain

El Glastö

[Brave Sir Robin]

Indeed on Thursday evening you wrote:

On 6/13/2019 at 7:21 PM, briddj said:

Yep. We're basically all wasting our time for at least another week! 

 

On 6/13/2019 at 7:24 PM, briddj said:

Five days really for any actual confidence. But even then.... 

Which I think is the truth. Not that it will keep me away from this thread ?