The Weather Thread 2019

[SighMo]

Watched Whitney in the rain on the OS on Sat midday ish I'm sure.

[Eyebrow]

Bit of rain around British Sea Power / Witney time is correct ?

cleared up after that and was fine. 

[elbongo]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

Was raining at the start of British Sea Power. Think that was Saturday aft.

Thinks I was asleep... Having witnessed the rain that fell earlier that day. ?

[Rubber Soldier]

Yeah it was raining while we watched The Bootleg Beatles on Saturday morning, cloud had burnt off and the sun was blazing again by the time we walked over to The Park for Amber Arcades. Other than that 2017 was perfect weather wise. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

I think it also rained a wee bit on the Sunday morning.

[guypjfreak]

Lots of talk about the big R word.... Hopefully it will be dry.. 

[Eyebrow]

Serious question then. At which point is a weather report actually worth taking note of? 7 days? 10 at a push?

im aware the answer probably relegates this thread to worthlessness for a spell!  

[Heartbreaker]

43 minutes ago, Eyebrow said:

Serious question then. At which point is a weather report actually worth taking note of? 7 days? 10 at a push?

im aware the answer probably relegates this thread to worthlessness for a spell!  

10 to 14 days before will give a rough idea of the general trend of unsettled/hot/totally fucked. For an accurate (as possible) forecast, we will not know that until the late Monday runs, but that will only give a decent level of confidence through to Thursday eve / Friday. From then on in your best just looking at the clouds and making the judgement of poncho or not!

That said, we all know that the countryfile forecast on the Sunday before is never, NEVER wrong..

Edit: God its good to be back in this thread!

Edited June 1, 2019 by Heartbreaker

[briddj]

41 minutes ago, Eyebrow said:

Serious question then. At which point is a weather report actually worth taking note of? 7 days? 10 at a push?

im aware the answer probably relegates this thread to worthlessness for a spell!  

5 days is when a degree of confidence can be had about the GENERAL outlook. But you still can't confidently predict exact days 5 days out. I do a lot of cycling and there are so many days when the weather the niight before says one thing and it does the other..... Obviously the difference is if the forecast 5 days out says we're in for days of rain - there's little way out of that. But a forecast saying 5 days of sun, and some rain in there would make little impact.

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Heartbreaker said:

10 to 14 days before will give a rough idea of the general trend of unsettled/hot/totally fucked. For an accurate (as possible) forecast, we will not know that until the late Monday runs, but that will only give a decent level of confidence through to Thursday eve / Friday. From then on in your best just looking at the clouds and making the judgement of poncho or not!

That said, we all know that the countryfile forecast on the Sunday before is never, NEVER wrong..

10-14 days is WAY too long to have any confidence about the weather trend.

[Heartbreaker]

Just now, briddj said:

10-14 days is WAY too long to have any confidence about the weather trend.

Im an optimist....

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Heartbreaker said:

Im an optimist....

If it says sun at 10-14 days, you're most definitely right.

[stuartbert two hats]

9 minutes ago, briddj said:

10-14 days is WAY too long to have any confidence about the weather trend.

However, we can say quite a lot about the state of the ground at that point. In 2011 and 2016 it was known well before the gates opened that there would be mud.

[Bubblecup]

1 hour ago, Eyebrow said:

Serious question then. At which point is a weather report actually worth taking note of? 7 days? 10 at a push?

im aware the answer probably relegates this thread to worthlessness for a spell!  

Not until the Norwegians come into range

[briddj]

I did the London-Surrey Ride100 last year and on the Tuesday it was still forecast to be 25 and sunny on the Sunday. From there on the forecast deteriorated day by day to the point it was torrential rain all day. Made it a lot of fun.

But I will fully trust a sunny forecast for Glasto.

[Wurzelcat]

Yesterdays forecast for Bristol said it would be dry but cloudy this morning with light rain in the afternoon. Today's forecast adjusted it to a bit of drizzle or light rain am.

 

It's been hoofing it down all morning...

[Homer]

13 hours ago, Eyebrow said:

Serious question then. At which point is a weather report actually worth taking note of? 7 days? 10 at a push?

im aware the answer probably relegates this thread to worthlessness for a spell!  

Depends on if the forecast in question happens to be positive or negative.

[Wallace]

For everyone asking how accurate the forecast is further out, keep an eye on your own local weather forecast for the next few days and see how close to the truth it really is.

[Crazyfool01]

I find it incredible with all the technology these days ....... we can never trust the weather forecast ... 

[benc]

Everything to play for until the countryfile forecast.

[Losing my hair]

13 hours ago, Eyebrow said:

Serious question then. At which point is a weather report actually worth taking note of? 7 days? 10 at a push?

im aware the answer probably relegates this thread to worthlessness for a spell!  

Well, I spent most of my working life dependant on the weather - farming or civil engineering. Any forecast more than 7 days out is pointless, any more than 24 hours out is only a general trend, and 24 hours or even the same day is still not a guarantee. We live in a country where the weather is unpredictable and can vary across a few miles.

The weather will be what it will be, there's no point getting stressed about it.

[Wherethewildthingsare]

countryfile the Sunday before is usually a key moment 

[Crazyfool01]

29 minutes ago, Losing my hair said:

The weather will be what it will be, there's no point getting stressed about it.

from a member who's called losing my hair  

[Losing my hair]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

from a member who's called losing my hair  

It's somewhat of a misnomer now - lost would be more accurate - and I've always blamed it on my kids. ?

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, Losing my hair said:

It's somewhat of a misnomer now - lost would be more accurate - and I've always blamed it on my kids. ?

Hair is very much over-rated ?