The Weather Thread 2019

[JoeyT]

Just now, The Nal said:

Defo a bit of the 2007s about the run in.

Worrying. Very worrying.

On the positive side of it

 

[bigfurbdogg]

13 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Defo a bit of the 2007s about the run in.

Worrying. Very worrying.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see the whole thing called off this year, the way things are looking. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by bigfurbdogg

[Thunderstruck]

26 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Hate to be the purveyor of bad news and also have to caveat this because much can change but the output from the charts at the moment is pointing to an unsettled 7-10 days.

Whilst not particularly worried about it myself I must admit it does make me feel even more grateful to all those who will be on site setting up for the rest of us!

It really is looking awful for the next 1-2 weeks. 50-100mm. What did we have in the 2016 run up? 

The only slightly positive thing is (low confidence) some signs of a settle down towards the end of the month...

[Harry49]

34 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Hate to be the purveyor of bad news and also have to caveat this because much can change but the output from the charts at the moment is pointing to an unsettled 7-10 days.

Whilst not particularly worried about it myself I must admit it does make me feel even more grateful to all those who will be on site setting up for the rest of us!

Knew I should not have peeked inside this thread. all beginning to get a bit worrying!☹️

[jonnyisRFC]

https://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/extended-weather-forecast/710458

 

no idea how reliable ‘Accuweather’ is but their 15 day forecast looks absolutely fine!

 

edit: the run up looks fine anyway, the 5 days of the festival don’t look great. Early days though!

Edited June 4, 2019 by jonnyisRFC

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, Harry49 said:

Knew I should not have peeked inside this thread. all beginning to get a bit worrying!☹️

I guess a lot depends on the last 2 weeks of June. Looking at the rainfall data for yeovilton (close as I can get), the forecast does look a little worrying for a 2007/2016 type wet spell. Interestingly 2016 was wetter than 2007! 

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, jonnyisRFC said:

https://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/extended-weather-forecast/710458

 

no idea how reliable ‘Accuweather’ is but their 15 day forecast looks absolutely fine!

Fingers crossed!

[Ayrshire Chris]

BBC has mixed weather for pilton until the 12th with one day of heavy rain then dry and improving up until the 17th June. 

[The Nal]

25 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

It really is looking awful for the next 1-2 weeks. 50-100mm. What did we have in the 2016 run up? 

Similar. And a shitload more the week before and of the festival. When there were pictures of fields under 2 feet of water on the Monday there were still lunatics on here saying "ah that'll dry up". 

Speaking of lunatics, heres Jackones forecast from June 5th 2016. Very very similar to the current outlook. And lets not forget, the last two weekends in late June in Pilton have been great. 3 years in a row? Nah. 

Were only 21 days out now and more than half of those days are raining. Exact same as 2016. It doesn't really matter what happens in the week of the festival, the damage will be done. 

Its going to be a muddy one.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/blogs/entry/4938-glastonbury-2016-festival-blog-3-issued-5th-june-16/

 

Summary

If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period.

Edited June 4, 2019 by The Nal

[mufcok]

First time I've been on this thread, wanted to hold off for as long as possible. Regretting it now...

[Mr.Tease]

2 minutes ago, mufcok said:

First time I've been on this thread, wanted to hold off for as long as possible. Regretting it now...

What has been seen, cannot be unseen

[Thunderstruck]

5 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Similar. And a shitload more the week before and of the festival. When there were pictures of fields under 2 feet of water on the Monday there were still lunatics on here saying "ah that'll dry up". 

Speaking of lunatics, heres Jackones forecast from June 5th 2016. Very very similar to the current outlook. And lets not forget, the last two weekends in late June in Pilton have been great. 3 years in a row? Nah. 

Were only 21 days out now and more than half of those days are raining. Exact same as 2016. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/blogs/entry/4938-glastonbury-2016-festival-blog-3-issued-5th-june-16/

 

Summary

If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period.

The big European model (best stats for accuracy) has a mean of 51.8mm out to the 18th June. Minimum is ~20 max 103mm. 

So you can see the spread from 51 ensemble members!

 

https://weather.us/forecast/2638035-shepton-mallet/ensemble/euro/precipitation

there's some more detail in the plots. The first big dose of rain coming the end of this week/weekend when we get up to 30mm mean accumulated.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Thunderstruck

[Bovla]

Down with the negativity, still 3 weeks to go, if we get to 1.5 weeks before and the site is looking boggy with more rain to come, then we can worry.

For now, the only thing to worry about is clashes! 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Bovla

[faymondo]

RE 2016 its been so much drier before this that surely this means a repeat of that is not on the cards.

Not saying it isn't going to be muddy but the ground has a lot more capacity to soak a bit up this year ??

[Doug85]

The rollercoaster that is the weather thread is sure to take a few more peaks and troughs. I'm not concerned yet, I'll await until we are within 2 weeks of the festival to see what its like in the build up and proposed weather front that will be expected for the festival week. 

[mufcok]

if I'm thinking of the right year, we took a minibus in 2016 and got towed out.. on the way in

That was grim.

[ModernMan]

Dammit it’s so hard to ignore this thread! ?

[Heartbreaker]

The forecast will swing back and forth more times than a child on a swing. No need to panic....... Yet.

[Doug85]

Just now, Heartbreaker said:

The forecast will swing back and forth more times than a child on a swing. No need to panic....... Yet.

Exactly plus it was supposed to be bad for the next 7 days in a recent forecast and now I can only see it being bad on Friday with some heavy rain and some light rain on sunday so far. 

[mcmenace]

1 hour ago, The Nal said:

Defo a bit of the 2007s about the run in.

Worrying. Very worrying.

 

19 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Similar. And a shitload more the week before and of the festival. When there were pictures of fields under 2 feet of water on the Monday there were still lunatics on here saying "ah that'll dry up". 

Speaking of lunatics, heres Jackones forecast from June 5th 2016. Very very similar to the current outlook. And lets not forget, the last two weekends in late June in Pilton have been great. 3 years in a row? Nah. 

Were only 21 days out now and more than half of those days are raining. Exact same as 2016. It doesn't really matter what happens in the week of the festival, the damage will be done. 

Its going to be a muddy one.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/blogs/entry/4938-glastonbury-2016-festival-blog-3-issued-5th-june-16/

 

Summary

If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

[mufcok]

On the BBC it's saying dry from the 12th onwards.. BBC's does tend to change a bit but if that's right, I'm sure we'll be fine

[JoeyT]

To put in to perspective below is how often the various weather forecasting systems update

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

So plenty of rollercoaster between now and the festival...

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, faymondo said:

RE 2016 its been so much drier before this that surely this means a repeat of that is not on the cards.

Not saying it isn't going to be muddy but the ground has a lot more capacity to soak a bit up this year ??

Underlying sub-soil may be bone dry and rock hard, in which case it will be slow to absorb any heavy rain leaving the top soil saturated/water logged = higher  chance of  mud.

[frostypaw]

22 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Were only 21 days out now and more than half of those days are raining. Exact same as 2016. It doesn't really matter what happens in the week of the festival, the damage will be done. 

Ah good to see the cheeriness in this thread hasn't changed

Had a look, pressure seems on an upwards trend, not scared yet.

[Tartan_Glasto]

That’s it, I’m staying out this thread from now on. What will be, will be.