The Weather Thread 2019

[rubick]

Spanish plume, lads. 

[Heartbreaker]

1 minute ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

That’s it, I’m staying out this thread from now on. What will be, will be. 

You'll be back , everyone always come back

[Ayrshire Chris]

3 minutes ago, rubick said:

Spanish plume, lads. 

Azores high

jetstream up to the north 

[Doug85]

The Nal looking at any positive weather forecasts....

[grilladelphia]

I think the only logical thing to do is panic buy everything with the prefix "waterproof"

[Losing my hair]

It's like a self help group for weather depressives on here. This far out no forecast is reliable enough to say anything other than it might rain or it might not - relax.

[Northtim]

Positivity people, OK so currently it is not looking like 2017 weather but that could easily change.  Very doubtful it will be a mud fest though...

We've had a fair bit of rain recently in Yorkshire, including a couple of days of downpours in the last month.  The ground overall is so dry after the winter that it has laughed that off and a day later is back to dry as.   Fair enough some major downpours will churn things up, but we are not coming off a wet winter like 2016 and the rainfall would have to be biblical to get anywhere near those conditions.

Anyway - predictions of rain or sun this far out are barely educated guesses

 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Northtim

[BambooShanks]

1 minute ago, grilladelphia said:

I think the only logical thing to do is panic buy everything with the prefix "waterproof"

To be fair, I did just buy a pair of seel skinz just in case

 

1 minute ago, Northtim said:

Positivity people, OK so currently it is not looking like 2017 weather but that could easily change.  Very doubtful it will be a mud fest though...

That's the spirit!

and didn't 2010 look pretty bad in the run up only for a heatwave to come out of nowhere?

 

 

 

[jfaragher]

54 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

The big European model (best stats for accuracy) has a mean of 51.8mm out to the 18th June. Minimum is ~20 max 103mm. 

So you can see the spread from 51 ensemble members!

 

https://weather.us/forecast/2638035-shepton-mallet/ensemble/euro/precipitation

there's some more detail in the plots. The first big dose of rain coming the end of this week/weekend when we get up to 30mm mean accumulated.  

50-100mm accumulated over the next two weeks isn't disaster level - 80th percentile for June is ~85mm, mean around 50mm for that part of the country (using Yeovilton) and we've  had -ve rainfall amount vs average from around this time last year, up until this time last month.

I'd be interested to see if that big slug of continued rainfall is caused by timing - it could be that a number of members are moving from dry to very wet and back for a few days, but the temporal spread of the heavy rainfall event is very wide, so it looks on the plume like it just keeps going.   Might see if I can pull the data member-by-member...

Also, I'd be more worried if it looks like this will continue after 18 June at that level - if it does, we could struggle, especially if we get very heavy rainfall in the week before (like 2017  2016 obviously).  Or, it could dry up, and we could have the perfect springy not-too-hard fields.

Edited June 4, 2019 by jfaragher
I don't do dates gud

[Sack truck]

Am I losing the plot - 2017 was lovely weather apart from the mad heat on the Wednesday, no wellies required and it was 2016 that was a shitshow? 

[Wurzelcat]

I need a new weather app. Yesterdays forecast was totally wrong and today it's apparently "light rain" in Bristol, absolutely hoofing it down for the last hour.

Currently using the BBC weather app, what should I be using? 

Brings home the point that if the forecast isn't even right for the same day, how reliable can a long range one be?

[Gedh]

6 minutes ago, Wurzelcat said:

I need a new weather app. Yesterdays forecast was totally wrong and today it's apparently "light rain" in Bristol, absolutely hoofing it down for the last hour.

Currently using the BBC weather app, what should I be using? 

Brings home the point that if the forecast isn't even right for the same day, how reliable can a long range one be?

Dark Sky is pretty good on the local weather.

[rubick]

The BBC default setting is 'Light Rain Shower', meaning that it's usually not far off anywhere in the UK or Ireland. 

[jfaragher]

10 minutes ago, Sack truck said:

Am I losing the plot - 2017 was lovely weather apart from the mad heat on the Wednesday, no wellies required and it was 2016 that was a shitshow? 

Nope, I got my year wrong   Have edited

[mufcok]

Week and half, two weeks tops, before a new 'tips for a wet Glastonbury' thread is on the go

[SighMo]

 Not bothered...WG tent looks like the place to be all weekend anyway ?

[Hugh Jass]

I only come to this thread to post Phil Jones pictures anyway.

[kingbadger]

Came in here because the thread was hot, thought it's a sign! Yes!

A sign to keep out of it for the dangers that lurk within.

[Avalon_Fields]

1 hour ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

That’s it, I’m staying out this thread from now on. What will be, will be. 

See! I’ve made you look already!! he he...

[Hugh Jass]

5 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

Came in here because the thread was hot, thought it's a sign! Yes!

A sign to keep out of it for the dangers that lurk within.

The thread is dark and full of terrors.

[Avalon_Fields]

18 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

I only come to this thread to post Phil Jones pictures anyway.

Just when I thought this thread couldn’t get any more painful aarrggggh!

[kingbadger]

2 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

The thread is dark and full of terrors.

[Hugh Jass]

2 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Just when I thought this thread couldn’t get any more painful aarrggggh!

 

[Tartan_Glasto]

11 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

See! I’ve made you look already!! he he...

??

[Splodge]

Can we not just use the Arcadia crane to build a big dome over the entire site?