The Weather Thread 2019

[gherkin8r]

1 minute ago, deebeedoobee said:

I should have seen that one coming.

 

but I can’t see that well.

That's what Jack said

[gherkin8r]

Marty Pailow

[frostypaw]

17 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Seriously it’s been like a fucking drought in the West Country for last 2-3 months. Barely any rain.  Yes we’ve got spells next few days ahead but it’s still warm and breezy in-between.  It’s nothing like 2016 yet, not even close 

This is what I'm seeing. There's some wet but not the regular big dumpings with only prayers to dry it out inbetween.

It's a bit showery and yuk but nothing scary at all. Glad it's not this coming weekend

[JayBalls]

40 minutes ago, leggyemulous said:

I've still got my heart set on an Azores Finger.

Or a Spanish Plume, that'd do.

[The Red Telephone]

Sending our love down @deebeedoobee ‘s well

[gherkin8r]

 

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, sam1981 said:

Right, so I've done the only scientifically reasonable thing and checked the weather threads for 2016 and 2017 roughly 3 weeks out to see what the consensus was. The idea was to show that there was no accuracy in the reports that far ahead, but it backfired and it seems that roughly speaking the general wet 2016/dry 2017 trend was known at this time. ?

 

 

Trying to think of something positive to say at the end of this, but science has spoken and is obviously never wrong.

I like that we had exactly the same idea at exactly the same time?

[briddj]

I don't understand the pessimism. There's not been any forecast to cause it! The rain this weekend is meaningless with the temperatures rising in the middle of the following week. 

[MrHew]

28 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

 

Hands down best Fleetwood Mac tune. 

[MEGABOWL]

Just looked at the Beeb forecast. 

 

Whiffs of 2015 to me. I’d take that.

 

BTW the Sunfest in 2010 only fell into place a few days before the Festival.

[Mr.Tease]

This is getting surreal- I went back to the 2017 weather thread intending to do a more detailed chart showing the forecasts 3 weeks ahead, 2 weeks ahead and 1 week ahead so we could gage the accuracy. However, there in the 2017 thread I found a post (from Nal of all people!) doing the same thing from the thread from 2010? Anyway, here's Nal's posting from the 2010 thread in the 2017 thread:

(for those that weren't around then, 2010 was the holy grail of glastonbury weather- hot and sunny every day, no rain)

 

Quote

 

Posted June 14, 2010 · Report post

In fact, latest GFS has a dribbling of rain throughout with very heavy rain Sunday afternoon.

If that comes off it would be like a 2007 / 2005 combo.

The GFS data is used for most of the forecasts so I would expect them to start reflecting the above over the next few hours.

 

Posted June 14, 2010 · Report post

The latest runs are no better (18z), going on the last few runs the best we can hope for is a few showers maybe none to heavy, the worse: 2007.

 -2

 

Posted June 15, 2010 · Report post

Glastonbury Festival Braces Itself For Rain

added 09 June 2010 at 14.52

There’s two weeks to go, it’s not looking good for sunshine...

Met Office officials have said it’s likely that this year’s Glastonbury Festival will be hit by showers. Mixed weather conditions for June will likely mean a muddy site, although it’s not thought that the weather will be as severe as that seen in 2005 amd 2007.

Speaking to the Mirror newspaper, Met Office weather forecaster Sarah Holland admitted there would be “changeable conditions”, with a sunny weekend seeming very unlikely indeed.

http://www.xfm.co.uk/news/2010/glastonbury-festival-braces-itself-for-rain

 

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Mr.Tease

[MrHew]

1 hour ago, tumbles said:

Seriously it’s been like a fucking drought in the West Country for last 2-3 months. Barely any rain.  Yes we’ve got spells next few days ahead but it’s still warm and breezy in-between.  It’s nothing like 2016 yet, not even close 

Exactly what I've been thinking. Things are looking pretty rosey right now

[jfaragher]

1 hour ago, tumbles said:

Seriously it’s been like a fucking drought in the West Country for last 2-3 months. Barely any rain.  Yes we’ve got spells next few days ahead but it’s still warm and breezy in-between.  It’s nothing like 2016 yet, not even close 

It's been dryer than normal since about this time last year. I reckon all we really need to worry about now is extremely heavy rain during the show, which doesn't have time to run off / be absorbed before it turns to mud. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 hours ago, gherkin8r said:

When I say MUDBATH, you say HEATWAVE!! 

Say it then!

[sprocketrocket]

Is it looking Germanic or French? Come on Germany.

[Mr.Tease]

Anyways here is the chart for 2017:

 

Three weeks before festival:

Accuweather said cloudy, no rain

JackOne said unclear, unsettled but maybe upwards swing towards the end of the month

 

Two weeks before festival:

Accuweather said sunny and cloudy, 23 degrees throughout

Metcheck maid the first mention of hot temperatures in the days leading up to the festival (even mentioning 28 degrees)- which turned out to be correct

JackOne made his first mention of 'neutral weather' (WTF?!), again saying it was uncertain but looking more settled

 

One week before festival:

JackOne said high pressure before gates open, then slowly weakening over the course of the festival, with an increasing chance of low pressure. Temperatures would be cool, but little to no rain. So he was pretty much bang on!

[Ayrshire Chris]

21 minutes ago, briddj said:

I don't understand the pessimism. There's not been any forecast to cause it! The rain this weekend is meaningless with the temperatures rising in the middle of the following week. 

Its fake news!

[MEGABOWL]

I work in Aviation (Air Traffic Control) and obsess about the weather every day because often my entire day hinges on it. I know from experience that forecasts this far out are almost meaningless.

 

(Unless they predict Sun, obv)

[gherkin8r]

37 minutes ago, MrHew said:

Hands down best Fleetwood Mac tune. 

Agreed. The full version with part 2 is really special. 

[gigpusher]

We've had shit weather in Manchester today as a sacrifice to the weather gods. I expect my reward in 3 weeks time. 

[kaytee...]

The weather today has been so miserable and dark I cant even bear thinking about a day like this as glasto

[rzwodezwo]

25 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

We've had shit weather in Manchester today as a sacrifice to the weather gods. I expect my reward in 3 weeks time. 

It's Manchester mate, we always have shit weather

[gigpusher]

Just now, rzwodezwo said:

It's Manchester mate, we always have shit weather

Yep but now I want reward for suffering it the rest of the time!! 

[eastynh]

30 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

We've had shit weather in Manchester today as a sacrifice to the weather gods. I expect my reward in 3 weeks time. 

I ran home from Oldham in that rain tonight. I am fully prepped for Glasto. 

[dotdash79]

Had this lovely water feature at Salford Crescent this evening, but I don’t mind for a dry Glastonbury.