Brexit at Glasto?

[Mr.Tease]

2 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

PMQ's today will be interesting!!

Do we think the numbers in parliament are enough for a no confidence to trigger an election?
Labour would do that if they could get the numbers.

Nope, TIG said they wouldn't support a no confidence motion vs May (as they are shit scared of losing their seats in a snap election), so that's 11 short at least, plus Ian Austin, John Woodcock etc, so even if the DUP voted for it (they won't), there's not a hope unfortunately.

[Mr.Tease]

10 hours ago, zero000 said:

Think the ERG may have realised they've shot themselves in the foot in rejecting May's deal. Practically frothing at the mouth.

I think they're happy to be on the losing side, crying betrayal- I suspect a few don't even really want brexit in reality (hence Boris Johnson and a whole load of them looking depressed and afraid when it was announced that they won the referendum).

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Let’s see does this dummy Corbyn take the bait. Fate of the Left at stake. No pressure you twat.

I learnt from the general election that Corbyn's strategists are actually quite good (proved me wrong on many occasions), even some commentators acknowledge this 

 

It could all go to pot quite easily, but so far they've managed a difficult situation well (how they handle this recent bit could blow it all up though!). 

[Scott129]

Lets be honest, whatever decision Corbyn makes he's going to get abuse for it. 

If he negotiates labours deal with May (perfectly in line with labours manifesto and conference policy) he'll be facilitating brexit and betraying the people. 

If he asks for a confirmatory referendum (which May will reject) then he'll get told he's refusing to compromise and putting party politics ahead of the country. Indicative votes will then fail because TING et al will risk a no deal rather than back a soft brexit. And Corbyns critics will claim he actually wants a no deal (despite asking for a referendum and backing a soft brexit to prevent it)

i honestly have no idea what Corbyn's best strategy is. At the very least he should demand a long extension so that a customs union can be added into the WA

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

i honestly have no idea what Corbyn's best strategy is.

and not does Corbyn, which is the problem. He's been winging it all the way thru.

if he's not been winging it then you have to also 'credit' him for his 6 days holiday and weak campaigning for remain which helped lead us into this shit in the first place.

 

15 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Lets be honest, whatever decision Corbyn makes he's going to get abuse for it. 

True. Because he's not taken a position and stuck to it, instead he's shape-shifted (so much for the principled man) while always leaning most towards the brexit he's always been desperate for. 

It means neither remainers or leavers have trust in him, for very good reason.

Edited April 3, 2019 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

32 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I learnt from the general election that Corbyn's strategists are actually quite good (proved me wrong on many occasions), even some commentators acknowledge this 

 

It could all go to pot quite easily, but so far they've managed a difficult situation well (how they handle this recent bit could blow it all up though!). 

I'd say that's a feckin' huge mis-claim.

If it's all been a strategy, why the shapeshifting? And if it's been a strategy then was the 6-day holiday and weak campaigning part of that strategy? And the abandonment of 6 tests to 5 watered down ones? And sacking people for suggesting some SM which has since become the Corbyn plan?

The best that can be claimed for the 'strategy' is that Labour haven't caused things to go tits up just yet. To claim it's stopped brexit happening is laughable when even the biggest brexit advocates haven't voted for brexit.

[Scott129]

So what strategy could he actually do in his talks with May that would make you happy? As above, he could demand a confirmatory referendum but May would just reject it and he'd be accused of secretly wanting no deal. 

I think it's clear that Corbyn wants a soft brexit out of this, not because he's desperate to leave the EU, but because its the option must likely to reunite the country (albeit I dont think any option will actually do that). Given theres no majority for a second referendum, I think that's a perfectly legitimate position to take at this stage, where the options seem to be hard brexit or soft brexit. 

Also lets drop pretending Corbyn is the reason leave won. Leave won because of years of politicians blaming the EU for problems of their own making, scapegoating migrants and tory austerity and deindustrialisation. A 6 day holiday didn't switch the result. 

Admittedly Corbyn didnt campaign as passionately in 2016 as he did in 2017, but thats probably because he isnt a hardcore remainer. EU membership isn't his raison detre like it is for TIG (apparently lol) 

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

So what strategy could he actually do in his talks with May that would make you happy?

One that keeps a no-brexit outcome on the table.

9 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

I think it's clear that Corbyn wants a soft brexit out of this, not because he's desperate to leave the EU, but because its the option must likely to reunite the country

but he *IS* desperate to leave the EU, and a brexit that absolutely no one wants is not an outcome which will reconcile people on either side.

10 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Also lets drop pretending Corbyn is the reason leave won. Leave won because of years of politicians blaming the EU for problems of their own making, scapegoating migrants and tory austerity and deindustrialisation. A 6 day holiday didn't switch the result. 

Say the same people who claim his wonderful campaigning is what made the GE so close.  

11 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Admittedly Corbyn didnt campaign as passionately in 2016 as he did in 2017, but thats definitely because he is a hardcore brexiter.

Corrected for you.

You don't have 30+ years of voting alongside Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc, if you're a remainer.

[DeanoL]

Oh yeah Corbyn is playing it very well. Unfortunately he’s not pro Remain or a second referendum. We should be expecting Corbyn and May to come out with a deal and confirmatory referendum, which would be obvious if Corbyn was actually behind it.

[Scott129]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

One that keeps a no-brexit outcome on the table.

There isn't the numbers in Parliament for that. Corbyn can't change that. May will reject it and you'll claim Corbyn wants a no deal

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Corrected for you.

You don't have 30+ years of voting alongside Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc, if you're a remainer.

Well for one this is taking it out of the context that the whole of labour was anti-EU back when Corbyn was voting for anti-EU legislation. 

Does Corbyn have criticisms of the EU? Of course. Would he support lexit in different circumstances? Probably. But lexit was never on the table in 2016, brexit was always going to be a hard right tory project. That's why most openly lexiteers voted remain   If we're being honest Corbyn almost certainly wishes the referendum never happened, because its just distracted from the things he is actually passionate about

[Scott129]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Oh yeah Corbyn is playing it very well. Unfortunately he’s not pro Remain or a second referendum. We should be expecting Corbyn and May to come out with a deal and confirmatory referendum, which would be obvious if Corbyn was actually behind it.

This ignores the fact May will under no circumstances accept a confirmatory referendum

[Mr.Tease]

9 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

This ignores the fact May will under no circumstances accept a confirmatory referendum

And that there isn't a parliamentary majority behind it either (as the indicitive votes indicated). 

I don't have a problem with people pushing for revoke or a second referendum (I sympathise) , but they seem to have no strategy except to criticise Corbyn, rather than fathom out or talk about how to get more MPs to vote for a second referendum. It's bizarre. 

[eFestivals]

45 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

There isn't the numbers in Parliament for that.

and there aren't the numbers in Parliament for whatever Corbyn plans proposing either.

You';re not saying that he shouldn't put his CU/SM ideas forward, are you? So he can similarly push for a confirming ref.

 

Quote

May will reject it and you'll claim Corbyn wants a no deal

Have you ever stopped to think that Corbyn might actually want no-deal and that's what he's playing for? It's a long way from impossible, for all sorts of reasons which will be scoring highly with Corbyn.

(that doesn't mean I definitely think he's trying to cause no-deal btw, but it's certainly not impossible).

 

Quote

Well for one this is taking it out of the context that the whole of labour was anti-EU back when Corbyn was voting for anti-EU legislation. 

That's complete bull. The whole of Labour has never been anti-EU, for a start.

And it certainly wasn't anti-EU when Corbyn defied the whip in 2011 to vote alongside Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc.

(there's a much longer list btw, can't be bothered to go find it tho)

Quote

If we're being honest Corbyn almost certainly wishes the referendum never happened, because its just distracted from the things he is actually passionate about

Hmmm. I reckon he wishes it had never happened about as much as McD wished the global financial crisis had never happened.

Corbyn defied the whip when he voted alongside Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc in 2011, calling for an EU referendum - and not because he wanted to stay in. That doesn't sound like him wishing the ref had never happened.

Edited April 3, 2019 by eFestivals

[zahidf]

31 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

And that there isn't a parliamentary majority behind it either (as the indicitive votes indicated). 

I don't have a problem with people pushing for revoke or a second referendum (I sympathise) , but they seem to have no strategy except to criticise Corbyn, rather than fathom out or talk about how to get more MPs to vote for a second referendum. It's bizarre. 

The second referendum vote only post by a very small margin after the Tories whipped against it and cabinet all abstained.

I think there could be a parliamentary majority for it on a free vote.

[zahidf]

Ha!

 

[Mr.Tease]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

The second referendum vote only post by a very small margin after the Tories whipped against it and cabinet all abstained.

I think there could be a parliamentary majority for it on a free vote.

The question is how would the cabinet vote on a second referendum and under what circumstances. If May whipped against it how many would quit to support it? That's one of the keys. 

The decision might even be taken out of our hands if the EU insist on one as a condition for extending article 50

[Scott129]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

and there aren't the numbers in Parliament for whatever Corbyn plans proposing either.

You';re not saying that he shouldn't put his CU/SM ideas forward, are you? So he can similarly push for a confirming ref.

If May backs it (which her agreeing to talks suggests she will) there is. If everyone who could stomach a soft brexit (Ting etc) then there would be enough already. 

Everyone who may back a second ref has already backed it

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

That's complete bull. The whole of Labour has never been anti-EU, for a start.

The Labour leadership and senior labour politicians in the 70s and 80s. Anti-EU (or precurser to the EU) was labour party policy for a long time. 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Scott129

[eFestivals]

Just now, Scott129 said:

The Labour leadership and senior labour politicians in the 70s and 80s. Anti-EU (or precurser to the EU) was labour party policy for a long time. 

In the 75 referendum Labour didn't take a position, but the TUC did. "To stay in work we must stay in Europe" (I remember the posters).

Benn was anti-EU. It was always marginal opinion within Labour. Somewhen between 79-83 the policy was to leave, briefly.

Corbyn entered parliament in 83.

He's voted with the brexit headbangers on countless occasions ever since.

That doesn't mean he wants brexit for the same reasons, but it does mean he wants brexit as his lifetime position same as Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc.

[Scott129]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

That doesn't mean he wants brexit for the same reasons, but it does mean he wants brexit as his lifetime position same as Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc.

As above, he would probably vote lexit in different circumstances. Lexit was never on the ballot in 2016. Saying you want to leave because the EU is a neoliberal institution is fundamentally different to voting for a hard right exit based on cutting workers rights, environmental standards and attacking migrants. 

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

As above, he would probably vote lexit in different circumstances. Lexit was never on the ballot in 2016.

Lexit wasn't on the ballot either when he voted for a ref with Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc in 2011.

Or all of the other times.

11 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Saying you want to leave because the EU is a neoliberal institution is fundamentally different to voting for a hard right exit based on cutting workers rights, environmental standards and attacking migrants. 

he wanted a ref in 2011.
he defied the whip to vote for a ref in 2011.
he defied the whip to vote for a ref in 2011 alongside Bone, Cash, Mogg, etc.

What sort of exit do you think he'd have got in 2011, and how does that differ to 2016 (and now)?

Corbyn also voted anti-EU at every opportunity during the thatcher-80s and tory-90s, too - again with no chance of lexit.

Corbyn also voted anti-EU at every opportunity during Blair's term too, and no Corbynista could say that Blair would have delivered lexit.

C'mon, jeeez!  

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

And that there isn't a parliamentary majority behind it either (as the indicitive votes indicated). 

I don't have a problem with people pushing for revoke or a second referendum (I sympathise) , but they seem to have no strategy except to criticise Corbyn, rather than fathom out or talk about how to get more MPs to vote for a second referendum. It's bizarre. 

 

51 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

If May backs it (which her agreeing to talks suggests she will) there is. If everyone who could stomach a soft brexit (Ting etc) then there would be enough already. 

Everyone who may back a second ref has already backed it

The Labour leadership and senior labour politicians in the 70s and 80s. Anti-EU (or precurser to the EU) was labour party policy for a long time. 

 

Any deal that both Corbyn and May whip for is likely to pass. It’s silly to argue that everyone who would vote for a second referendum already has but then say a customs union would pass if May backed it. A second ref would pass if May backed it too.

It would have some appeal to May- she can blame the ref on Corbyn, Corbyn could even offer to campaign for the deal, satisfying both sides of the party (or disappointing both). Plus if the referendum fails for May she can then say she did everything she could but has to respect the result. 

It’s a way out and there are precious few left. I’m not sure a deal with a political statement saying customs union means anything. As May won’t be there to negotiate it.

[Scott129]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

Any deal that both Corbyn and May whip for is likely to pass. It’s silly to argue that everyone who would vote for a second referendum already has but then say a customs union would pass if May backed it. A second ref would pass if May backed it too.

It would have some appeal to May- she can blame the ref on Corbyn, Corbyn could even offer to campaign for the deal, satisfying both sides of the party (or disappointing both). Plus if the referendum fails for May she can then say she did everything she could but has to respect the result. 

It’s a way out and there are precious few left. I’m not sure a deal with a political statement saying customs union means anything. As May won’t be there to negotiate it.

I agree a second referendum would get through if May whipped for it. Problem is that is probably her least favourite option and under no circumstances can I see her accepting it. She'd call an election rather than a second ref.

Without May backing it,  you wouldnt get any more mps voting for a second ref imo. People who would prefer a soft brexit but could stomach a second referendum over no deal have already voted for it. Whereas those who would no doubt prefer a customs union/common market to a no deal/hard brexit, are refusing to back it and risking a no deal. If you had Ting, SNP, lib dems voting for every deal they could agree to then we'd have a majority

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

She'd call an election rather than a second ref.

not sure about that.

a 2nd ref makes the brexit issue go away if it's a remain win, and she'd ultimately be clean for it stopping brexit - because that responsibility falls on the public.

And a 2nd ref is the option that has her stay as PM for the longest, as long as its credible for her to claim the ref was forced by Corbyn while she was trying to deliver brexit.

She ducked ruling out a longer extension in PMQs, so I've got my fingers firmly crossed.

[Scott129]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

not sure about that.

a 2nd ref makes the brexit issue go away if it's a remain win, and she'd ultimately be clean for it stopping brexit - because that responsibility falls on the public.

And a 2nd ref is the option that has her stay as PM for the longest, as long as its credible for her to claim the ref was forced by Corbyn while she was trying to deliver brexit.

She ducked ruling out a longer extension in PMQs, so I've got my fingers firmly crossed.

Well if she won an election as PM she would stay on for longer. I don't disagree with what you say, but sources close to May have made clear a second referendum is her last choice. Remember she has staked her whole 'legacy' on being the one to deliver Brexit (she's had literally no other legislative agenda), so a reversal would completely ruin that. 

I'm not saying that's logical (I agree with you that a referendum mighy be a way out for her) but then May never was logical

[eFestivals]

Just now, Scott129 said:

Well if she won an election as PM she would stay on for longer.

yep, but that's not going to happen, the tory party won't allow it.

1 minute ago, Scott129 said:

I don't disagree with what you say, but sources close to May have made clear a second referendum is her last choice.

It's stopped being her choices now.

For better or worse she's taken the view that the public vote should be respected, in the way she believes the votes were cast.

But things have now moved beyond that with her agreeing to work with Corbyn, so while she's still determined to deliver at least some of her work towards brexit with the WA, that's delivered when it's voted thru even when its subject to a confirming ref. Against that, none of her work for brexit is validated by no-deal.

If she was going to no-deal I can't really see why she feels the need to do the Corbyn thing. I can't see how that gives her more validation for no-deal than she has at the mo as Corbyn has already been stopping her getting brexit thru, she doesn't really need to have him do it again. 

She's got a game plan, of course she has, but I'm starting to see no-deal as the least likely option.