Brexit at Glasto?

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, tumbles said:

May's sofa chat very much indicated that its extension or revoke to me. People like Robert Peston saying he saw it that way too. 

her wording has definitely been about that ... which is why I reckon MV4 is coming, it's the final attempt at pressuring MPs to vote thru May's deal.

Whether that really means she'd revoke rather than no-deal tho, I'm not sure. I defo lean more towards her revoking but I wouldn't put money on it.

Edited April 8, 2019 by eFestivals

[tumbles]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

her wording has definitely been about that ... which is why I reckon MV4 is coming, it's the final attempt at pressuring MPs to vote thru May's deal.

Whether that really means she'd revoke rather than no-deal tho, I'm not sure. I defo lean more towards her revoking but I wouldn't put money on it.

It's going to be UK law by end of today I think that we can't go into No Deal - think the lords have second reading today?  Therefore I don't see how she can't not revoke if we really are heading for the cluster f**k of no deal. 

I predict Labour talks will breakdown sometime today/tomorrow with her refusing to budge on her red lines.  She'll then use that to blame Labour going forward.  I guess the EU stance will depend on the likes of Macron who've talked up no deal its whether they have the balls to say we've had enough. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, tumbles said:

It's going to be UK law by end of today I think that we can't go into No Deal - think the lords have second reading today?  Therefore I don't see how she can't not revoke if we really are heading for the cluster f**k of no deal. 

I predict Labour talks will breakdown sometime today/tomorrow with her refusing to budge on her red lines.  She'll then use that to blame Labour going forward.  I guess the EU stance will depend on the likes of Macron who've talked up no deal its whether they have the balls to say we've had enough. 

I don't think that's quite right.  It's going to be UK law that she has to go and ask for another extension.  I don't think the Cooper bill compels May to revoke A50 if the EU turn down her request.  Having said that, I expect the EU to let her have this next extension, but who knows anything at this point?

[Mr.Tease]

Just now, eFestivals said:

her wording has definitely been about that ... which is why I reckon MV4 is coming, it's the final attempt at pressuring MPs to vote thru May's deal.

Whether that really means she'd revoke rather than no-deal tho, I'm not sure. I defo lean more towards her revoking but I wouldn't put money on it.

If revoke is going to happen it will be this week (otherwise it's out the window), if the EU refuse an extension on Wednesday (unless they lose the plot and only agree an extension until June 30th, in which case revoke becomes an option then).

Likely EU will refuse a short extension unless May has reached an agreement with Labour (unlikely), and instead will offer only a lengthy extension ONLY if May agrees to either an election or second referendum, at which point I think May will say she's been forced to hold a referendum.

She might not like a referendum, but it's the least damaging option for the Tories (compared to a general election or a softer brexit or a no deal).

 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

It's going to be UK law by end of today I think that we can't go into No Deal - think the lords have second reading today? 

Nope. That law only requires her to ask for an extension - which she's already done.

It doesn't require May to do everything she can to get an extension.

3 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Therefore I don't see how she can't not revoke if we really are heading for the cluster f**k of no deal. 

She's got to weigh up what she prefers, damage to the country or damage to the tory party. Could go either way.  

4 minutes ago, tumbles said:

I predict Labour talks will breakdown sometime today/tomorrow with her refusing to budge on her red lines.  She'll then use that to blame Labour going forward. 

that's pretty much a given.

How well brexit supporters swallow that line is quite possibly what's going to influence her decision on revoke or no-deal.

[Mr.Tease]

4 minutes ago, tumbles said:

It's going to be UK law by end of today I think that we can't go into No Deal - think the lords have second reading today?  Therefore I don't see how she can't not revoke if we really are heading for the cluster f**k of no deal. 

 

I think the Cooper bill (the one in the Lords)is really badly worded, so essentially all May has to do is ask for an extension if it's looking like no deal, but it doesn't specific how long. So it doesn't really stop No Deal- it's a bit of a red herring. She could essentially just ask for an extension of1 day, or ask for one that they'll never agree to.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I don't think that's quite right.  It's going to be UK law that she has to go and ask for another extension. 

I'm not sure it's even "another extension". My take on it is that the one she asked for last week covers what's required by the Copper bill.

[Mr.Tease]

Of course we're probably all making the repeated mistake of assuming May actually has a plan/strategy?

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, eFestivals said:

I'm not sure it's even "another extension". My take on it is that the one she asked for last week covers what's required by the Copper bill.

You may be right on that, I didn't realise she'd actually asked for the second extension already.  Blimey this is moving fast.

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I'm not sure it's even "another extension". My take on it is that the one she asked for last week covers what's required by the Copper bill.

That's my understanding too- don't really get why Cooper etc wasted time on this, since it's so easy for May to get out of.

[zahidf]

Peston thinks by basically saying 'my deal or no brexit' yesterday, she is making revoke more likely

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Of course we're probably all making the repeated mistake of assuming May actually has a plan/strategy?

She's playing 3d chess with everyone and Brexit is going to be averted.  In secret, she's the deftest politician that ever lived!

[Mr.Tease]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

You may be right on that, I didn't realise she'd actually asked for the second extension already.  Blimey this is moving fast.

She asked for a second extension but only until 30th June, which is exactly what she asked for the first time and the EU refused. We are stuck in a time loop

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Of course we're probably all making the repeated mistake of assuming May actually has a plan/strategy?

May's strategy seems to be all about other people making the decisions for her.

But she'll have realised it still might fall back on her, and presumably she knows what she'll do in those circumstances.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

She's playing 3d chess with everyone and Brexit is going to be averted.  In secret, she's the deftest politician that ever lived!

I suggested that to a mate about 2 1/2 years ago, and I'm still not convinced I got it wrong.  

More seriously, I think she thought she'd always hit problems with the ERG/headbangers and tried to sideline them by getting a bigger majority via the 2017 election, and when that failed her next plan was to put brexiters in charge of brexit to have them show themselves as shit (and that part worked, at least).

Edited April 8, 2019 by eFestivals

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Peston thinks by basically saying 'my deal or no brexit' yesterday, she is making revoke more likely

 

I just watched her fireside chat, and whilst she's obviously still rubbish at this compromising and negotiating stuff, to give her credit, she came across about 10 times better there than when she stood up in Downing Street, told off the House Of Commons and pretended she was speaking for the rest of the country (ensuring the petition to revoke A50 broke records)

[alanr]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

She's playing 3d chess with everyone and Brexit is going to be averted.  In secret, she's the deftest politician that ever lived!

Unfortunately it is obvious that she has a 1 dimensional mind? 

[tumbles]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Peston thinks by basically saying 'my deal or no brexit' yesterday, she is making revoke more likely

 

Which she'll firmly aim to blame on Labour if talks break down.

I feel Admiral Ackbar is probably shouting at Corbyn right now...

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I suggested that to a mate about 2 1/2 years ago, and I'm still not convinced I got it wrong.  

More seriously, I think she thought she'd always hit problems with the ERG/headbangers and tried to sideline them by getting a bigger majority via the 2017 election, and when that failed her next plan was to put brexiters in charge of brexit to have them show themselves as shit (and that part worked, at least).

I think her original plan was to string the ERG along until the deal was reached, then dump them and carry her deal through with northern Labour MPs. Remember that leaked PR strategy to sell her deal months ago? It had Andy Burnham supporting it, which seemed odd at the time. However immediately afterwards he didn't reject it but said his team would be analysing it. I suspect they'd had some soundings out a few weeks in advance and she was anticipating Andy Burnham delivering a chunk of northern Labour MPs to support the deal. However the deal got blasted so early and comprehensively by all other sections (remainers, ERG, Tories, everyone), there was no point in those MPs supporting it.

[zahidf]

19 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Which she'll firmly aim to blame on Labour if talks break down.

I feel Admiral Ackbar is probably shouting at Corbyn right now...

I don't think the blame game will work. Labour has briefed that may hasn't offered enough and I think that's clear that it's a political game with her

[Gnomicide]

Amusing watching a few calls that if Brexit doesn't go ahead, the hard trodden, betrayed working class should blockade the elites on their way to Glastonbury. 

[eFestivals]

27 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

Amusing watching a few calls that if Brexit doesn't go ahead, the hard trodden, betrayed working class should blockade the elites on their way to Glastonbury. 

brexit nutters were going to block the motorways a few weeks back, but no one turned up.

[Woffy]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

brexit nutters were going to block the motorways a few weeks back, but no one turned up.

Someone at work today pointed something out to me from The S*n last Wednesday. 

Amongst the usual rhetoric and awfulness there was a small piece tucked away in a bottom corner about how the Brexit nutters had fitted devices to railway lines to disrupt rail traffic - apparently it would show that a train was on the line when it wasn't.

But this was thwarted by...safeguards introduced to comply with EU Regulations.

[Wooderson]

Has Mogg ever been to Worthy Farm?

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Has Mogg ever been to Worthy Farm?

can you imagine him in NYC downlow with that moustache