Brexit at Glasto?

[Scott129]

6 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

I don't think it was ever going to work as a compromise just pissed everybody off didn't give the leavers the sovereignty they so crave and left remainers with a shitter version of the EU. To use the analogy of capital punishment if those opposed want people alive and those who are for want them dead putting someone in an induced coma is never going to be a workable compromise. 

Agree to disagree pal. Its important to remember that in 2016 the vast majority wanted to leave with a deal. Leavers and remainers would have accepted a soft Brexit. The problem is so much attention has been given the extreme options at both ends of the spectrum. 

I agree that now its arguably a compromise that suits no one. But it was certainly right to try to unite the country, rather than calling for a second referendum the day after the first

[timbrass]

10 hours ago, gigpusher said:

The sad truth is that most people who are saying we should leave with no deal basically think it means nothing would change. Some people think it is actually the same as staying as we are!! 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/12/deal-no-deal-or-delay-what-public-thinks According to YouGov poll about 1% think No Deal means remaining in EU.

[gigpusher]

28 minutes ago, timbrass said:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/12/deal-no-deal-or-delay-what-public-thinks According to YouGov poll about 1% think No Deal means remaining in EU.

I can't remember the exact figure but the one by sky news had it at over 20% I'm sure. Wish I could find it but can't remember the wording. I just remember finding the result terrifying! 

[jow95]

I’m sure block9 in particular would make a lot of very heavy brexit references in the installations, parts of it have been very politically themed in the past 

[Spindles]

3 hours ago, jow95 said:

I’m sure block9 in particular would make a lot of very heavy brexit references in the installations, parts of it have been very politically themed in the past 

Yeah, I would expect to see it's influence throughout the assorted installations this year.  Wonder if the man Banksy might have something to spot this year.

[eFestivals]

21 hours ago, Sasperella said:

Those are some comforting stats. Even if everything else is a mess

Let's all move to Manchester!

the stats for Bristol were MUCH better. We didn't put a brexit party first for a start.  

[p.pete]

10 hours ago, gigpusher said:

I can't remember the exact figure but the one by sky news had it at over 20% I'm sure. Wish I could find it but can't remember the wording. I just remember finding the result terrifying! 

If it's a different wording then you're talking about something different. 

[Sasperella]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the stats for Bristol were MUCH better. We didn't put a brexit party first for a start.  

I thought Labour's problem was that they were "fence sitters" (to paraphrase recent chat on here)....how can they be fence sitters AND a Brexit Party 

[timbrass]

My money is on a 'No Deal' Conservative PM being picked, the EU standing firm and at the last moment in October a Vote of No confidence being lost (with a few Conservatives like Hammond, Clarke and Grieve voting against their party). Parliament would take control of business in the house (with Bercow support) and either request an extension or Revoke Article 50 if there was insufficient time and we would then be into a General Election that would result in no overall majority for any party.

The alternative is the new PM realises that a Second Referendum is their only hope of avoiding the General Election at which they would be wiped out and puts it back to the people (after asking for an extension) and Remain wins by 55 to 45.

[marcoolio]

11 hours ago, gigpusher said:

I can't remember the exact figure but the one by sky news had it at over 20% I'm sure. Wish I could find it but can't remember the wording. I just remember finding the result terrifying! 

26%. But it was a twitter poll, so it probably never really meant anything.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, Sasperella said:

I thought Labour's problem was that they were "fence sitters" (to paraphrase recent chat on here)....how can they be fence sitters AND a Brexit Party 

to date their fence sitting has them fall off the fence to brexit. Even now Jez doesn't want to give it up.

Edited May 28, 2019 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

43 minutes ago, timbrass said:

My money is on a 'No Deal' Conservative PM being picked, the EU standing firm and at the last moment in October a Vote of No confidence being lost (with a few Conservatives like Hammond, Clarke and Grieve voting against their party). Parliament would take control of business in the house (with Bercow support) and either request an extension or Revoke Article 50 if there was insufficient time and we would then be into a General Election that would result in no overall majority for any party.

The alternative is the new PM realises that a Second Referendum is their only hope of avoiding the General Election at which they would be wiped out and puts it back to the people (after asking for an extension) and Remain wins by 55 to 45.

I'm pretty damned sure that Parliament can't request an extension, it can only instruct the PM to do that - but the PM doesn't have to follow it (tho might be held in contempt if they don't - which is pretty meaningless as we saw with May).

[hfuhruhurr]

I am really trying to get my head around the "no deal" that a whole lot of people have voted for. Interviews with the public on mainstream news show staggering ignorance, so given that these voters are not stupid, they know what they want, please, could someone tell me what it is? I've asked but never heard an answer.

Areas I'd like to understand are:
What's your solution to the NI border issue?
What better trade deals have you identified that we can get?
What's your proposal for replacing the EBA, EMA, ESA etc etc and how much will this cost to do alone compared with the current model?
Given that we have control over our borders for non-EU, and we let more of them in than EU, what's your plan for immigration?
Which laws that have come from the EU (that we have voted to accept) will you repeal?
Since article 24 of WTO will not be applicable, what's your plan for tariffs?
If it is free-trade, then how will you protect us against most favoured nation status from competition from low cost imports?
What custom arrangements do you have in mind?

I've a shed load of questions likes these I'd really like answered, and I know these guys have thought them through, so all I'd like is the information, not a debate, just to know what it is. Then I can understand and accept.

[Scott129]

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

to date their fence sitting has them fall off the fence to brexit. Even now Jez doesn't want to give it up.

It is worth pointing out that Labour have already voted for a second referendum twice and failed because there is no majority for it in Parliament. Even when they move to it being the central position (which they 've now pretty much done) there will still be a number of mps (Lisa Nandy, Ian Lavery etc) who represent leave areas and wont support a second referendum. 

I personally can only see a second referendum after an election where labour backs it as its position. And in that situation, tories backing no deal have every bit as great a chance of winning 

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

It is worth pointing out that Labour have already voted for a second referendum twice and failed because there is no majority for it in Parliament. Even when they move to it being the central position (which they 've now pretty much done) there will still be a number of mps (Lisa Nandy, Ian Lavery etc) who represent leave areas and wont support a second referendum. 

I personally can only see a second referendum after an election where labour backs it as its position. And in that situation, tories backing no deal have a slightly worse chance of winning.

Fixed for you.

[Scott129]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

tories backing no deal have a slightly worse chance of winning.

Maybe you're more of an optimist than me. There is clearly huge support for no deal amongst leavers and leave constituencies outnumber remain 2:1. Plus I can see the remain vote being more split than leave vote (Boris and Farage may well form an electoral pact in such a situation

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Scott129 said:

Maybe you're more of an optimist than me. There is clearly huge support for no deal amongst leavers and leave constituencies outnumber remain 2:1. Plus I can see the remain vote being more split than leave vote (Boris and Farage may well form an electoral pact in such a situation

Remain have been ahead in the polls for a long time now. It's not exactly likely that remain would win, but it does seem more likely than not at the moment.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Scott129 said:

Maybe you're more of an optimist than me. There is clearly huge support for no deal amongst leavers and leave constituencies outnumber remain 2:1. Plus I can see the remain vote being more split than leave vote (Boris and Farage may well form an electoral pact in such a situation

Farage won't put himself in a position where he's got responsibility for what happens, and Boris won't cause a tory revolt by selling MPs seats out from under them.

No deal will never be the majority opinion.

[eFestivals]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

It's not exactly likely that remain would win

it pretty much is, because any further vote will be for a particular brexit path and not simply 'leave'.

The only reason we've not left already is because there's no majority opinion behind any version of leave.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Farage won't put himself in a position where he's got responsibility for what happens, and Boris won't cause a tory revolt by selling MPs seats out from under them.

No deal will never be the majority opinion.

Isn't it already the majority leave option?

[Scott129]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Remain have been ahead in the polls for a long time

This doesn't necessarily correlate to seats in Parliament though. 

 

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

No deal will never be the majority opinion.

Wish I had you're optimism. Leave lead by Boris/Farage would beat Remain lead by the People's Vote lot. They've been in full campaign mode for 2 years, spent millions of pounds and not won over any leavers

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Scott129 said:

This doesn't necessarily correlate to seats in Parliament though. 

Labour are also ahead in the parliamentary polls, by a more comfortable margin at last check.

Just now, Scott129 said:

This doesn't necessarily correlate to seats in Parliament though. 

 

Wish I had you're optimism. Leave lead by Boris/Farage would beat Remain lead by the People's Vote lot. They've been in full campaign mode for 2 years, spent millions of pounds and not won over any leavers

I have some hope that the Labour party fully swinging behind remain can redress the balance.

[ghostdancer1]

1 hour ago, Sasperella said:

I thought Labour's problem was that they were "fence sitters" (to paraphrase recent chat on here)....how can they be fence sitters AND a Brexit Party 

they want a soft, Labour Brext (it's literally there in their manifesto), but are happy to sit on the fence doing fuck all in the hopes of getting a GE.

you can quibble over their fence-sitting, you can't quibble that they want to implement Brexit.

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Isn't it already the majority leave option?

it's the majority leave opinion, but that's not the majority of people of the UK.

And it's worth noting that despite what the likes of Boris is saying, tories are well aware it's not majority opinion.

It doesn't mean no tory PM would do no-deal but it does mean it's not the shoe-in that Boris' words suggest it is.

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Wish I had you're optimism. Leave lead by Boris/Farage would beat Remain lead by the People's Vote lot. They've been in full campaign mode for 2 years, spent millions of pounds and not won over any leavers

Those who'd back no-deal are a definite minority within the country, and "throw the country off a cliff" is not a line that's going to be easy to sell to those who aren't already supporting Farage.