Brexit at Glasto?

[Homer]

17 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Yeah i agree, although I think part of the problem is brexiteers haven't necessarily been given the opportunity to "climb down" from their position. Since the day after the referendum we've had a minority of ardent remainers calling them stupid etc and therefore its a bit embarrassing for them to now change their mind and easier just to not engage with any problems. 

I think given that People's Vote and the Lib Dems have basically been in full campaign mode for 3 years and no one seems to have changed their mind (I certainly don't know any leave voters who have) speaks volumes for how bad their tactics have been. If a second referendum happens then the leaders of the campaign need to make a much more positive case for the EU, freedom of movement etc. We know Johnson is going to call anyone remotely negative a naysayer who doesn't believe in Britain and I think that's quite an appealing argument to a lot of people.  

Yeah, calling people stupid is in itself stupid - as a ‘tactic’. It’s certainly part of the problem.

[uscore]

11 hours ago, Scott129 said:

Yeah i agree, although I think part of the problem is brexiteers haven't necessarily been given the opportunity to "climb down" from their position. Since the day after the referendum we've had a minority of ardent remainers calling them stupid etc and therefore its a bit embarrassing for them to now change their mind and easier just to not engage with any problems. 

I think given that People's Vote and the Lib Dems have basically been in full campaign mode for 3 years and no one seems to have changed their mind (I certainly don't know any leave voters who have) speaks volumes for how bad their tactics have been. If a second referendum happens then the leaders of the campaign need to make a much more positive case for the EU, freedom of movement etc. We know Johnson is going to call anyone remotely negative a naysayer who doesn't believe in Britain and I think that's quite an appealing argument to a lot of people.  

whilst there are some compelling points in your post, it's difficult to know what to call people who base their vote on Boris Johnson saying "you just need to believe in Britain" if you aren't allowed to use the word stupid.

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, frostypaw said:

Speaking even as a Remainer our side has gotten as bad as theirs now, assuming everyone's on side and all we need is a strong Remain leader and we'd wipe the board. We're so far from that point.

polling suggests a strong remain leader would wipe the board. Polling also suggests too many people have seen Corbyn is shit for him to win in any circumstances.

But the main problem is that Corbyn has just sucked up the result all the way thru. Without leadership against brexit there's no meaningful opposition to brexit.

 

18 hours ago, frostypaw said:

A unilateral Remain now will still do deep injury to this country.

No different to what we have already. The damage is done.

What Corbyn needs to do is work out what causes the least damage - and his desire of a brexit that makes no-one happy will cause more damage than a brexit (or no brexit) that makes some happy.

[Rose-Colored Boy]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

 

What Corbyn needs to do is work out what causes the least damage - and his desire of a brexit that makes no-one happy will cause more damage than a brexit (or no brexit) that makes some happy.

Especially with (I’m not being funny) the age difference between those two groups of voters.

I keep coming back to this in my head.

He can either piss off some but not all 50-80 year olds, who would quite likely vote Tory or Farage for the rest of their relatively short lives even if Labour adopted an unambiguous Leave position - or he can carry on down the current path and make Labour a dirty word for the liberal majority of people aged between 16 and 45, which is not only Labour’s modern core vote but will also be running schools, churches, business, politics and every other sphere of influence for the next 50 years.

I’m obviously generalising a bit here but even so, it shouldn’t be a difficult dilemma - and I suspect a Labour leader without Brexitty leanings wouldn’t be finding it one.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Rose-Colored Boy

[DeanoL]

14 hours ago, Scott129 said:

Yeah i agree, although I think part of the problem is brexiteers haven't necessarily been given the opportunity to "climb down" from their position. Since the day after the referendum we've had a minority of ardent remainers calling them stupid etc and therefore its a bit embarrassing for them to now change their mind and easier just to not engage with any problems. 

But none of them are being even vaguely realistic. We've spend 3 years now digging into this and discovering that it's very complicated. This is okay. For Brexit to really work we probably need a 5-7 year transition period. Then it wouldn't have to be a disaster, businesses could prepare and plan and transition relatively smoothly. You could even make "no deal" work with that amount of time to prep - rebuilding the massive customs infrastructure we would need in the South-East. Weirdly that would create huge amounts of employment and massively regenerate that area. I don't want to leave, but if you put me in charge of Brexit, that's how I would do it. And those people moaning that it's not quick enough can fuck off. It takes as long as it takes. You have to a put a deposit down on Glasto tickets 9 months in advance yet Boris thinks he can solve Brexit and get the UK prepped for it in three.

Yet there's not a single leaver espousing that way of doing Brexit. Of doing it sensibly, in a way that takes longer but doesn't break out economy. It's all "out now" and such. And I know you're not meant to say all Leavers are idiots, but honestly when not a single one of them is even suggesting a sensible approach you have to wonder.

The other thing is, the media need to start calling out politicians that are "opposed to the backstop". What that means is "we want to keep a hard border in Ireland on the negotiating table". That's literally what it means. All the backstop is is an agreement that if we can't figure out another way of avoiding a hard border in Ireland, then we revert to a Customs Union until we can. Notably, Boris has declared he is opposed not just to that backstop, but "any backstop" - so essentially any mechanic that says "if we can't avoid a hard border in Ireland we do X". All that can mean is that he wants the threat of that as a negotiating tool. Which actually, is fine. Ruthless, heartless, but understandable. But the media won't even hold him to account for it

[frostypaw]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

polling suggests a strong remain leader would wipe the board.

I've not seen any such poll, only that "anyone but Corbyn" mystery box poll. I'd be very wary of adding up results for other parties that you consider Remain parties as if they'd all get behind Labour in an election.

There's no sign from the polling that remain are "wiping the board" - the balance has shifted, but not much.

 

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

No different to what we have already. The damage is done.

I think we can do better than what we have already.

[eFestivals]

19 hours ago, frostypaw said:

I've not seen any such poll, only that "anyone but Corbyn" mystery box poll.

that's the poll!

Whether or not people were right to have hope in Corbyn in the first place, he's now lost those hopers.

They see him as no-hope, and hope someone else - anyone else - would b4e better. And the history of party leaders says any other leader would be better.

 

19 hours ago, frostypaw said:

I'd be very wary of adding up results for other parties that you consider Remain parties as if they'd all get behind Labour in an election.

I'm not.

I'm adding up those votes and saying none of the people voting for those other parties want to vote for Labour. Some of them might vote for Labour anyway - cos of FPTP - but they'd very definitely prefer not to (as other votes have showed).

 

19 hours ago, frostypaw said:

There's no sign from the polling that remain are "wiping the board" - the balance has shifted, but not much.

There's even less sign of Labour wiping the board, and that's the most pertinent point.

 

19 hours ago, frostypaw said:

I think we can do better than what we have already.

Exactly. Labour would do better with a better leader.

 

[frostypaw]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

that's the poll!

So yeah, statistics issue there.

You can't take a poll which is accurately summarised as "are you more like to vote Labour with Corbyn in charge, or someone else unspecified" and take that to mean "would you vote labour with a strong remain leader"

There's nothing more really to say, the two are not the same in any way. There'd be quite some data digging to find out whether the votes you'd lose for being more Remain would be made up for by the votes gained that way and with LDs and others also being pro-Remain plenty of chance their votes would go somewhere other than Labour. There's every chance some of those people saying "someone else" are imagining someone who will 'respect the result' and get us out with no deal.

Dangerous game

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

So yeah, statistics issue there.

You can't take a poll which is accurately summarised as "are you more like to vote Labour with Corbyn in charge, or someone else unspecified" and take that to mean "would you vote labour with a strong remain leader"

oh c'mon, that's a deliberately obtuse take or you're not following what's happening with public opinion, one or the other.  

People left Labour to vote for the LibDems because there wasn't even a piss-poor remain leader fronting Labour.

They might not come back any remain leader, but they're more likely to come back for a strong remain leader than a piss-poor remain leader.

And with a quick look just about anywhere you can see the numbers of now-ex-labour voters saying "I can't vote for Labour with Corbyn" is growing all the time.

 

14 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

There's nothing more really to say, the two are not the same in any way. There'd be quite some data digging to find out whether the votes you'd lose for being more Remain would be made up for by the votes gained that way and with LDs and others also being pro-Remain plenty of chance their votes would go somewhere other than Labour. There's every chance some of those people saying "someone else" are imagining someone who will 'respect the result' and get us out with no deal.

Dangerous game

 

What's a dangerous game is Corbyn being shit about brexit, and enabling the tories with it all the way.

I'm quite happy to admit that all angles were and are difficult for Labour, but there's still been the full range of choices at all points and Corbyn has made poor choices.

How do you think Labour will get on in a GE when Labour are still committed to brexit?

(cos if you think Corbyn would negotiate a deal and then campaign against his own work you're a bit nuts).

[Rose-Colored Boy]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

 

(cos if you think Corbyn would negotiate a deal and then campaign against his own work you're a bit nuts).

Not sure this is as far-fetched as you think... he did once call for the reinstatement of a Shadow Cabinet position that he himself had got rid of 

 

Edited July 30, 2019 by Rose-Colored Boy

[eFestivals]

29 minutes ago, Rose-Colored Boy said:

Not sure this is as far-fetched as you think... he did once call for the reinstatement of a Shadow Cabinet position that he himself had got rid of 

Either he says "don't vote for my deal cos i negotiated a shit deal" - which is mad.

Or he says "vote for my brexit".

Guess which one it's going to be?

He ain't getting my vote. 
(I've got an easy get-out tho; the Greens will win in my constituency)

[frostypaw]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

How do you think Labour will get on in a GE when Labour are still committed to brexit?

As you say it is all a bit guesswork, this will be too - it's very strange listening to the two sides where in more strongly remain groups like this they're a Brexit party and committed to it, while on the other side Labour are a Remain party seeking to undermine democracy.

I'd say how it plays out depends on how much marketing money gets thrown at it, whoever's in charge.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

As you say it is all a bit guesswork, this will be too - it's very strange listening to the two sides where in more strongly remain groups like this they're a Brexit party and committed to it, while on the other side Labour are a Remain party seeking to undermine democracy.

I'd say how it plays out depends on how much marketing money gets thrown at it, whoever's in charge.

the clear unequivocal answer was given by Corbyn on Saturday: "Labour is not a remain party". 

Voting Labour will be a vote for brexit. People who don't want brexit won't predominantly vote Labour.

People who do want brexit will predominantly vote for 'real' brexit parties.

Polling bears this out. Labour does better as a remain party than a brexit party.

Edited July 30, 2019 by eFestivals

[Rose-Colored Boy]

13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Either he says "don't vote for my deal cos i negotiated a shit deal" - which is mad.

Or he says "vote for my brexit".

Guess which one it's going to be?

He ain't getting my vote. 
(I've got an easy get-out tho; the Greens will win in my constituency)

Honestly, him standing up and saying “we tried, it’s impossible, so let’s remain” would go some way to proving he actually does have the ‘principles’ that his supporters always like to tell us he supposedly has. He doesn’t, though, so he won’t.

[Scott129]

400 constituencies voted to leave. Labour has to win some of those constituencies to win the next general election. That is the difficult position labour is in. 

You can certainly win some of those constituencies with a remain position, but only if you have a viewpoint on the causes of the brexit vote and how to address the concerns. A centrist leader would not have that, in the same way the lib dems don't accept their support of austerity caused brexit. 

Labour back a second referendum in all circumstances anyway. And given Corbyn is so incompetent I don't see why its of any concern whether he personally backs remain or a deal anyway 

[Rose-Colored Boy]

12 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

400 constituencies voted to leave. Labour has to win some of those constituencies to win the next general election. That is the difficult position labour is in. 

You can certainly win some of those constituencies with a remain position, but only if you have a viewpoint on the causes of the brexit vote and how to address the concerns. A centrist leader would not have that, in the same way the lib dems don't accept their support of austerity caused brexit. 

It isn’t as fluid and binary as that though. The Lib Dem’s are about to win Brecon and Radnorshire on Thursday (51% leave).

Also, the entire Tory strategy at the last election was ‘your Labour MP wants to remain, vote Tory this time instead’, and with only a couple of exceptions it comprehensively failed.

[frostypaw]

56 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Polling bears this out. Labour does better as a remain party than a brexit party.

Agreed, but the thing I was saying wasn't right was

On 7/29/2019 at 8:21 AM, eFestivals said:

polling suggests a strong remain leader would wipe the board.

And there's nothing to suggest that. They could well do better as a more firm remain party, but there's no solid evidence replacing Corbyn with a firm remainer would 'wipe the board' in any way.

Realistic expectations are important. From how things are going at the moment it looks like all the non-brexity righties are moving to the LDs, and there's no getting those votes over to Labour - it's an anathema to the British now but a coalition between them and a Labour still listening to the Leave voters would seem like something that could get us back on course.

But nobody's playing adult politics anymore, it's all crush the opposition, strong leaders and my way or the high way so we're stuffed.

[eFestivals]

45 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Labour back a second referendum in all circumstances anyway. And given Corbyn is so incompetent I don't see why its of any concern whether he personally backs remain or a deal anyway 

the margins are tight, so his recommendation could easily swing the result. 

And anyway, leaving is just simply the wrong position. Everything Labour might do hinges on the economy to under-pin the funding.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

And there's nothing to suggest that.

every poll.  

To suggest that people want Corbyn replaced by someone as shit or worse than him doesn't add up.

 

2 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

They could well do better as a more firm remain party, but there's no solid evidence replacing Corbyn with a firm remainer would 'wipe the board' in any way.

OK, try it the other way then.

Corbyn staying in place sees Labour fade away to meaningless.

 

2 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

Realistic expectations are important.

Yep, and taking the right position is also important - which is why there's a realistic expectation of Labour doing shit if Corbyn stays in place.

 

2 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

From how things are going at the moment it looks like all the non-brexity righties are moving to the LDs, and there's no getting those votes over to Labour - it's an anathema to the British now but a coalition between them and a Labour still listening to the Leave voters would seem like something that could get us back on course.

erm .... it's also the case that a sizable proportion of 'non-brexity lefties' are moving to the LibDems, too.

To pretend - again - that they're not Labour voters is nuts.

 

2 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

But nobody's playing adult politics anymore, it's all crush the opposition, strong leaders and my way or the high way so we're stuffed.

lol - it's the Corbynistas who bang on about destroying the tories. Corbyn's whole rational for his position in the first place was about destroying the tories.

Meanwhile, Brexit is an absolutist thing. There is no half-brexit. There is no middle ground. There is only in or out.

Labour voters have been asking Corbyn to get off the fence. He's got off the fence. He's for brexit.

If he had the bottle to advocate why he's for brexit then at least he's have a purpose. Instead he hides away and knows his own policy is shit and prays the tories are more shit than him.

[Rose-Colored Boy]

If the Torys put us through Brexit, and Labour have opposed it convincingly, the beloved Tory attack line about how Labour are ‘reckless with the economy’ will be rendered ineffective for two generations. It doesn’t need to be any more complicated than that.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Rose-Colored Boy

[frostypaw]

14 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

every poll.  

We tried that, no such poll existed unless you can link to one giving that result. I can't really debate entirely fictional things, just like nobody ever said Labour voters weren't defecting to the LDs too. Not sure what you want to achieve there so shall leave it.

 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

We tried that, no such poll existed unless you can link to one giving that result. I can't really debate entirely fictional things, just like nobody ever said Labour voters weren't defecting to the LDs too. Not sure what you want to achieve there so shall leave it.

 

The only way you can make your angle stand up is by believing that people are deserting Labour for no reason or because they want Corbyn to be even weaker at leadership than he is.

Me, I'll take the 'gamble' of my presumption being right.  

Edited July 30, 2019 by eFestivals

[DeanoL]

On 7/30/2019 at 7:21 AM, eFestivals said:

They see him as no-hope, and hope someone else - anyone else - would b4e better. And the history of party leaders says any other leader would be better.

If you ask me if I'm more likely to vote Labour without Corbyn as leader, my initial thought is "yes". But then if you tell me the replacement leader is a centrist who is still in favour of Brexit then hell no.

That's the problem with that poll. The lefties disillusioned with Corbyn being shit are imaging the other lead to be someone following in his footsteps with socialist policies, but a bit less shit, and possibly even pro-Remain. Whereas the centrists are imagining him being replaced by a Blairite. 

What is probably true, is that the centrists who said they'll never vote for a Corbyn-led Labour already left before the last election. You could potentially win them back, but it's the left of the party that are just fed up with Corbyn we stand to lose this time.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

If you ask me if I'm more likely to vote Labour without Corbyn as leader, my initial thought is "yes". But then if you tell me the replacement leader is a centrist who is still in favour of Brexit then hell no.

That's the problem with that poll. The lefties disillusioned with Corbyn being shit are imaging the other lead to be someone following in his footsteps with socialist policies, but a bit less shit, and possibly even pro-Remain. Whereas the centrists are imagining him being replaced by a Blairite. 

I've never seen a comment by anyone wanting Corbyn gone who wants a brexiter to replace him. Have you?

And plenty of other polling has been done around the issue. Labour loses (in theory, at least) loads more voters if it's for brexit than it does if it's for remain.

And little that i've seen of wanting him gone is about 'socialist' and 'blairite', it's about not-a-brexiter, competent, and free-of-bad-baggage. Very few 'blairites' have issue with the policy programme (beyond one or two of the more-nutty bits, such as 10% of companies stolen by McD).

 

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

What is probably true, is that the centrists who said they'll never vote for a Corbyn-led Labour already left before the last election. You could potentially win them back, but it's the left of the party that are just fed up with Corbyn we stand to lose this time.

there's no way that's true given the percentage of the vote Labour got.

The problem is - from public comment I see, anyway - is that while plenty of people held their nose and voted Labour in 2017 they won't do it again while Corbyn is in charge and brexit is in play.

They might, perhaps, vote Corbyn Labour once brexit is dealt with or Labour come fully out for remain - but for the moment brexit remains the factor that is swinging people's opinions. Plenty - like me - don't want Corbyn and others to claim we've voted for a brexit party and therefore support brexit.

[Scott129]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I've never seen a comment by anyone wanting Corbyn gone who wants a brexiter to replace him. Have you?

Tbf if you asked a leave voter in one of labour's traditional heartlands "would you be more likely to vote Labour with a different leader to Corbyn" they would say yes, but they wouldn't vote for Starmer/Thornberry either. In fact they would probably be less likely to.