Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Gwladboy]

1 hour ago, henry bear said:

That’s my worry for Glastonbury - it goes ahead but none of the overseas acts want to come, so we end up with...

Chris

[Gwladboy]

1 minute ago, Gwladboy said:

Chris

Just realised everyone beat me to this. I’ll get my coat.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

???

 

 

 

The thing about Trump is, on the rare occasions he's almost right about something, he's such a knobhead he misses the point.  The death rate probably is lower than 3.4%, but that doesn't mean things are basically ok - it means that there is a crisis of testing and the virus is spreading like wildfire.  The takeaway should be that it's more widespread than we think, not that it's less deadly.

Sorry for the tone, I'm trying to keep my comments on the more level headed side, but Trump winds me up, the prick.  Notice how he alays relays conversation he had with people with them always calling him "sir".

[Spindles]

2 hours ago, babyblade41 said:

I think any government would find this a tricky situation to deal with whatever your politics... doing too much too soon and over reacting or not doing enough soon enough could be disastrous 

Indeed.  This transcends party lines.  I felt that the government were conspicuously absent up til the weekend, was concerned but clearly the measures that are being taken are necessary and, at least to my mind, the right ones.

[Pipine]

44 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the good thing about the delay phase is that there's not really much point trying to delay it past the beginning of June.

I'm feeling quite reassured that we're already partly in the delay phase and I've read elsewhere that they would expect 95% of cases to occur in a 9 week period based on current knowledge so that doesn't seem like its going to be a long lasting epidemic. 

[babyblade41]

2 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Indeed.  This transcends party lines.  I felt that the government were conspicuously absent up til the weekend, was concerned but clearly the measures that are being taken are necessary and, at least to my mind, the right ones.

Fully concur Spindles , time to pull together and do all we can to keep this festival and many other gatherings be it music or any other things that entail large numbers coming together .

 

I am luckier than most as I am retired and have a small animal rescue so spend most days at home feeding pigs , turkeys ducks and hens plus the 6 mutts so rarely get an opportunity to leave here.

 

I feel for all of you who have to venture out in the public arena .

GF is my only break away if I'm lucky to get tickets as trying to arrange cover here with OH and his working arrangements isn't easy ,so if  it isn't on I shall feel a bit deflated but at my age I am a little more philosophical about it and what will be will be and everything happens for a reason somehow 

[thrillhouse188]

18 minutes ago, Heather90 said:

I saw him on BBC Breakfast yesterday and I was really impressed. He answered all the questions and when he was not able to give clear answers, he clearly explained why this is. 

on a side note - I have a science background and I remember one of the last assignments during my degree was to read a really complex Scientific Journal (PNAS) about a major advancement in understanding MS. I then had to write a newspaper-type article explaining it. It was actually one of my hardest assignments. It really is a skill to communicate these things well to the public without resulting to daily fail type headlines.

I freeze up whenever I’m asked to explain my thesis to someone haha

[TenTonneBadger]

On 3/4/2020 at 10:44 AM, priest17 said:

London book fair is a big loss, I wonder if this will effect that August bank holiday Reading Festival.

Let's hope so, I hate Reading festival

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

4 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Interesting that you mentioned Racoon. Here’s another striking coincidence.

This is the biolab in Wuhan.  

When I posted last night, I was just being silly as racoon was the only word that you could make out of corona. Why I decided to think along those lines is unknown to me, but I was heavily under the influence of certain Pharmaceuticals.

I had to look up your 'connection' and that is actually spooky. For those who don't already know;

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/resident-evil-umbrella-coronavirus/

[grilladelphia]

10 minutes ago, babyblade41 said:

 spend most days at home feeding pigs , turkeys ducks and hens plus the 6 mutts so rarely get an opportunity to leave here.

this sounds like my dream life

[Hugh Jass]

9 minutes ago, Yoghurt on a Stick said:

When I posted last night, I was just being silly as racoon was the only word that you could make out of corona. Why I decided to think along those lines is unknown to me, but I was heavily under the influence of certain Pharmaceuticals.

I had to look up your 'connection' and that is actually spooky. For those who don't already know;

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/resident-evil-umbrella-coronavirus/

If we start seeing tarantulas the size of cars then we're trouble...

[alfc7]

Just seen that apparently the virus has mutated into a second strain that is much more mild and that the original strain is dying out. This is surely good news for the likely hood of Glasto going ahead 

[SwedgeAntilles]

So you're saying the second, milder virus has simply eaten the other virus? 

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

If we start seeing tarantulas the size of cars then we're trouble...

Or you’ve consumed some of yogs stuff  

[alfc7]

5 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

So you're saying the second, milder virus has simply eaten the other virus? 

In their study of genes in 103 samples of the coronavirus, which is named SARS-CoV-2 and causes a disease called COVID-19, they revealed they had discovered two distinct versions of it, which they named L and S.

They claimed that around 70 per cent of patients have caught the L strain, which is more aggressive and faster-spreading than S.

But L has become less common as the outbreak has gone on, with it apparently struggling to spread since early January, while S has become more common.

S is less aggressive but is thought to be the first strain of the virus which made the jump into humans and is continuing to infect new patients.

 

[tigger123]

36 minutes ago, Pipine said:

I'm feeling quite reassured that we're already partly in the delay phase and I've read elsewhere that they would expect 95% of cases to occur in a 9 week period based on current knowledge so that doesn't seem like its going to be a long lasting epidemic. 

Surely this is the best news we could hear? As this 9 week period would take us up to early May which would leave a good 6/7 week buffer before the festival.

[squirrelarmy]

We only need to worry when the “T” variant of the virus appears. 
 

@Yoghurt on a Stick and @Hugh Jass know what I’m talking about. 

[Hugh Jass]

12 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

So you're saying the second, milder virus has simply eaten the other virus? 

[Lycra]

3 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Surely this is the best news we could hear? As this 9 week period would take us up to early May which would leave a good 6/7 week buffer before the festival.

No long knows how long the epidemic may last or it's severity. It's pure guess work. Any attempts at modelling based on what's happening in China could prove unreliable as Europe is unlikely to employ the draconian methods they employed in order to combat the outbreak.

[JoeyT]

I must say a positive mindset is something which i'm certain some folk on here would benefit from.

There's much to be said for shedding the aura of negativity for your own mental health as much as that of others.

 

[BambooShanks]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

We only need to worry when the “T” variant of the virus appears. 
 

@Yoghurt on a Stick and @Hugh Jass know what I’m talking about. 

 

[Pipine]

5 minutes ago, Lycra said:

No long knows how long the epidemic may last or it's severity. It's pure guess work. Any attempts at modelling based on what's happening in China could prove unreliable as Europe is unlikely to employ the draconian methods they employed in order to combat the outbreak.

This was the quote from Prof Whitty, so hopefully its fairly well modeled / researched... but yes it is just modelling at this stage...

 

One of the things which is clear, if you model out the epidemic, is you will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period, if it follows the trajectory we think it’s likely to.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Pipine

[Hugh Jass]

10 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

We only need to worry when the “T” variant of the virus appears. 
 

@Yoghurt on a Stick and @Hugh Jass know what I’m talking about. 

That reminds me... Two weeks of "self-isolating" from April 3rd would go down nicely.

[Ayrshire Chris]

5 minutes ago, Lycra said:

No long knows how long the epidemic may last or it's severity. It's pure guess work. Any attempts at modelling based on what's happening in China could prove unreliable as Europe is unlikely to employ the draconian methods they employed in order to combat the outbreak.

Must admit the Chinese police chasing folk down the street and capturing them with a butterfly net because they weren’t wearing a mask was a bit much! 

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

We only need to worry when the “T” variant of the virus appears. 
 

@Yoghurt on a Stick and @Hugh Jass know what I’m talking about. 

Hello squirrelarmy,

I think that you, Hugh Jass, and myself need a name for our newly created gang. In addition it may also be necessary for us to wear a bandana, so that other gangs know not to fuck with us. Obviously we'd need a bandana each, as just sharing the one bandana between the three of us would not only be geographically challenging, but would show rival gangs that we aint up to it.