Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[stopwn1981]

28 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

Lombardia region in lockdown in Italy... Crazy. Until April. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-07/italy-to-impose-virtual-ban-on-entry-to-lombardy-corriere

And people think there will be a Glastonbury.
 

This won’t even work it’s going to burn through at huge, huge cost.

[BlueDaze]

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I'm all out of upvotes for today!

 

On a side note, I suffer from OCD so if this outbreak had happened a few years ago during the worst of my OCD, I'd be struggling. I used to wash my hands so many times especially before going to bed, it was draining. Fortunately I can handle those thoughts better these days, it's made me think about it though.

I am delighted that your management of OCD is going so well that it has now become a 'side note' to @Ayrshire Chris'Fellowship of the Memes' Gollum....

I have also Upvoted said Meme on your behalf as i assume that you have frittered yours away on the myriad of Simpsons ones that flood these forums...

PS - wash your hands

[semmtexx]

4 hours ago, stopwn1981 said:

UK pop - 67mill - ONS

Worst case 80% get it and 95% of those over 9 week period - chief medical officer

20% need hospitalising - WHO

Critical care beds - less than 5000 - NHS 

 

As you say worst case. Hospitalised isn't critical care. Not only that but respiratory support can be provided further and wider than critical care. 

[pahqman]

Someone should make a time lapse out of this thread with colour coded argument tangents...

[semmtexx]

The Italians are suggesting about 10% of hospitalised cases need critical care support, almost exclusively respiratory based.  

Edited March 7, 2020 by semmtexx

[stuartbert two hats]

23 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

The Italians are suggesting about 10% of hospitalised cases need critical care support, almost exclusively respiratory based.  

I make that about a million critical care beds short.

Edit: that doesn't seem right at all...

Edit edit: actually, seems legit

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[Bisque]

I always take bog roll with me but I still hope there’s some available at the toilets.

[pahqman]

Now imagine if lack of toilet paper leads to a worse spread of some other virus/bacterial infection...

Seriously though, how did toilet paper become the number one commodity? 4chan?

[semmtexx]

Ignore. Didn't read. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by semmtexx

[semmtexx]

20 minutes ago, Bisque said:

I always take bog roll with me but I still hope there’s some available at the toilets.

What's the protocol?

You take your own roll and arrive to find some. 

Use your own and risk disaster later or use the supplied and potentially deny some poor unprepared soul a peaceful dump?

[stuartbert two hats]

14 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

Rather depends on what needs to be hospitalised. And the time span. Hence the idea of slowing transmission. 

Agreed. We want to avoid the worst case scenario, so I am keeping myself to myself a bit for the next few weeks at least.

We have to find a balance between not panicking madly, causing supplies to run low for the needy, and not treating this thing seriously. Whether it turns out to be all that bad in the end, it seems pretty clear that it's the worst outbreak since 1917. Luckily, healthcare has improved considerably since then and we're not in the middle of a world war, so it shouldn't be as bad as all that! But let's think about what we can do to slow down the spread whilst we don't have widespread community transmission.

Edited March 7, 2020 by stuartbert two hats
next ->needy

[charlierc]

48 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

The Italians are suggesting about 10% of hospitalised cases need critical care support, almost exclusively respiratory based.  

I read testimony in the Independent from a doctor who works in respiratory conditions out there, which may be the critical care support piece. Reading it did not make it sound like something that can't be taken as lightly as some people were suggesting, even if the majority of people who've got the virus have recovered.

And that's even in spite of my bewilderment that toilet paper stockpiling is a thing. I get panic makes us do somewhat irrational things, but I honestly thought there was stuff ahead in the queue of essentials to keep piled up than that.

[semmtexx]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Agreed. We want to avoid the worst case scenario, so I am keeping myself to myself a bit for the next few weeks at least.

We have to find a balance between not panicking madly, causing supplies to run low for the next, and not treating this thing seriously. Whether it turns out to be all that bad in the end, it seems pretty clear that it's the worst outbreak since 1917. Luckily, healthcare has improved considerably since then and we're not in the middle of a world war, so it shouldn't be as bad as all that! But let's think about what we can do to slow down the spread whilst we don't have widespread community transmission.

I deleted as I'd rather stated the same things twice but yes also agree!

[semmtexx]

2 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I read testimony in the Independent from a doctor who works in respiratory conditions out there, which may be the critical care support piece. Reading it did not make it sound like something that can't be taken as lightly as some people were suggesting, even if the majority of people who've got the virus have recovered.

And that's even in spite of my bewilderment that toilet paper stockpiling is a thing. I get panic makes us do somewhat irrational things, but I honestly thought there was stuff ahead in the queue of essentials to keep piled up than that.

I don't think it's fully clear yet, that's the problem here. It's probably fair to say that the Italian experience is the closest we've got to our heath care system and genuine accurate reporting. 

This is the article I am referring to. 

https://www.esicm.org/covid-19-update-from-our-colleagues-in-northern-italy/

[charlierc]

3 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

I don't think it's fully clear yet, that's the problem here. It's probably fair to say that the Italian experience is the closest we've got to our heath care system and genuine accurate reporting. 

This is the article I am referring to. 

https://www.esicm.org/covid-19-update-from-our-colleagues-in-northern-italy/

The article I saw is this one, which starts out with the note in the ESICM link below but then populates it with further info, including a letter from an Italian ICU doctor: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

[semmtexx]

Just now, charlierc said:

The article I saw is this one, which starts out with the note in the ESICM link below but then populates it with further info, including a letter from an Italian ICU doctor: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

Same one I think. Indy is reporting the Intensive care society article. 

[charlierc]

Just now, semmtexx said:

Same one I think. Indy is reporting the Intensive care society article. 

They are, yes.

[semmtexx]

It's also probably over a 14 - 16 week period. People get better (hopefully!) and leave the beds for the next person.  

[semmtexx]

And not to minimise or trivialise what's going on in other people's lives, my main fear here is I haven't got a ticket!

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, semmtexx said:

And not to minimise or trivialise what's going on in other people's lives, my main fear here is I haven't got a ticket!

I suspect the resale/secret resales will be easier than normal. It's not hysteria to worry about going to Glastonbury, picking up the virus and then making your relatives (especially older) very ill.

I found myself hoping I get it around May earlier today. I usually come back from the festival with some sort of illness and the idea of giving my daughter coronavirus because I wanted to get wasted in a field for 5 days? I love Glastonbury deeply, but it's enough to make me consider throwing my ticket back in the pot eventually.

Hmm, anyone know if you can add insurance when paying off your deposit?

[semmtexx]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I suspect the resale/secret resales will be easier than normal. It's not hysteria to worry about going to Glastonbury, picking up the virus and then making your relatives (especially older) very ill.

I found myself hoping I get it around May earlier today. I usually come back from the festival with some sort of illness and the idea of giving my daughter coronavirus because I wanted to get wasted in a field for 5 days? I love Glastonbury deeply, but it's enough to make me consider throwing my ticket back in the pot eventually.

Hmm, anyone know if you can add insurance when paying off your deposit?

Feel guilty for this but I'm hoping it'll make the resale a bit easier.  

I'm not sure the "getting Coronavirus guilt thing" is completely rationale. Most of us will get it irrespective of what we get up to wasted in a field or not. 

What perhaps is a factor is who looks after your child while you're away. I think I'll stand down the grandparents from babysitting duties until the summer if possible. What wouldn't be fair would be going to a festival and passing on an infection if you didn't need to see the elderly relatives for a couple of weeks. Of course this does actually transcend the school gates so maybe you're right?

I don't know how old your child is but I believe the mortality in the under 10s is zero. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by semmtexx

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I make that about a million critical care beds short.

Edit: that doesn't seem right at all...

Edit edit: actually, seems legit

 

That's insane - how is the government "slowing down the spread" plan in any way going to happen by "wash your hands and business as usual"? Surely that's a way to speed up to that level where lots die? 

That region of Italy does have a huge number of older people so it may not be an entirely accurate view of what we'll see. Hopefully.

[FestivalJamie]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's insane - how is the government "slowing down the spread" plan in any way going to happen by "wash your hands and business as usual"? Surely that's a way to speed up to that level where lots die? 

That region of Italy does have a huge number of older people so it may not be an entirely accurate view of what we'll see. Hopefully.

1. Both the US and the UK are screwed- the UK is not prepared for this, the “contain” phase did nothing, and the “delay” phase won’t do anything either. The NHS have shown they are useless as the 2 deaths were both only diagnosed a matter of hours before they died... if they had been tested earlier on then perhaps they could have been helped and their lives could have been saved. The government and health officials have no clue what they are doing here and that leaves me really worried- many countries like Slovakia are screening all travellers before they come in to check for symptoms, and yet we are doing absolutely nothing. 

2. It seems highly likely that coachella will be postponed, I can only see the outbreak getting worse over the next few weeks and the current mortality rate is about 3.2%, much much higher than the mortality rate for swine flu, so it seems likely that upcoming major events will be postponed/cancelled. The decision for Glastonbury wont be made for another couple of months until a couple of weeks before the festival as it’s really not obvious how long it will take for this outbreak to die down and the virus to start dying out.

[WS_Jack_III]

Been wondering about this, not read the rest of the thread. But it does seem like glasto would be a hotbed for the disease.

[Spindles]

Nah, the real hotbed for the disease has been the supermarkets this weekend.  The workplaces and schools next week.  It's been in the community for a little while and mostly it's just mild, so not that many cases have escalated to confirmed testing.  Don't worry overmuch.  The likelihood is that most of us will catch it over the next few weeks and the entire focus of the health service provision is going to be on how best to deal with those cases that need treatment, which the vast majority will not.

 

I've got a lung condition, had half a lung removed and am approaching 50.  I am not living in fear, not panic buying bog roll, not stocking up on food and ibuprofen, just going to the shops for the same things, with the same frequency and doing all the things I'd normally do, which is what we all need to do.  Some of the insane paranoia exhibited in this thread is baffling.  This is not the end of the world, this is just a challenging time.  As with all challenging times we'll come through it stronger, like our calves at the end of a good festival, which complained at the start but are like steel by the journey home.

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Spindles