Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[parsonjack]

1 minute ago, March Hare said:

Agreed, it was more of a reaction to use of methanol which, as you say, is dangerous.

No worries.  By the way....what's the general atmos like in Manchester with all this?  We're due up there on Saturday for a Corrie tour (Xmas gift for MrsP) and an overnight in Portland St.....I'm guessing much like anywhere else folks are just getting on with things pretty much as normal?

[charlierc]

3 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

You'd hope that measures to restrict movement would be put in place simultaneous to an announcement.

You wonder this in regard to certain events.

For instance, Formula 1 has a huge presence in northern Italy - 2 teams are outright based there, as is the team's sole tyre supplier, and a huge amount of people are required from each to get to a racetrack and get the damn cars running, and in the past, there have been illnesses and viruses spread among that group at events. So I'm honestly a little surprised the season so far seems to be proceeding as normal and everyone's en-route to Melbourne & then Bahrain for the opening 2 races of the year, even as other motorsports like Formula E and MotoGP have pulled events. Yet here we are.

[March Hare]

2 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

No worries.  By the way....what's the general atmos like in Manchester with all this?  We're due up there on Saturday for a Corrie tour (Xmas gift for MrsP) and an overnight in Portland St.....I'm guessing much like anywhere else folks are just getting on with things pretty much as normal?

Business as usual, was out in Revolution, Roxy Ball Room etc on Thursday and loads of people out and about. 
 

If you are dressed up go for a cocktail in 20 Stories. It’s fancy.

Edited March 8, 2020 by March Hare

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, charlierc said:

You wonder this in regard to certain events.

For instance, Formula 1 has a huge presence in northern Italy - 2 teams are outright based there, as is the team's sole tyre supplier, and a huge amount of people are required from each to get to a racetrack and get the damn cars running, and in the past, there have been illnesses and viruses spread among that group at events. So I'm honestly a little surprised the season so far seems to be proceeding as normal and everyone's en-route to Melbourne & then Bahrain for the opening 2 races of the year, even as other motorsports like Formula E and MotoGP have pulled events. Yet here we are.

Vietnam is considering banning anyone whose been to Italy recently. This means Ferrari will not be allowed to race there. 

 

[DeadAmos]

22 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Absolutely, this could very well be the chickens coming home to roost for their awful system.

This could well be true , but as always it will be the poorest members of society who suffer most

[kalifire]

The other half has a three week trip to Italy booked for the start of June (then coming over to meet me In Frome so I can take her to her first Glastonbury for her birthday). 

She’ll be exclusively in the south of the country so we’re hoping this shutdown in the north has the desired effect. It’s drastic but large scale lockdowns could be what it takes. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

This may seem like an odd thing to say but I think what’s happening in Italy is a good thing, purely from the point of view of will Glastonbury go ahead or not.

The measures they’ve put in place are pretty drastic, but they’re only in place for a month. That’s an acknowledgement that they can’t go on like that indefinitely. Their economy and country would literally grind to a halt and collapse.

So as far as Glastonbury is concerned it’s all about timing, and in that regard we could be lucky or unlucky. If we find ourselves in Italy’s position in a months time it still might just about be ok, anything beyond that and Glastonbury risks getting caught slap bang in the middle of any such similar measures our government might decide to take.

[charlierc]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

Vietnam is considering banning anyone whose been to Italy recently. This means Ferrari will not be allowed to race there. 

 

I thought Bahrain was at risk due to a rise in cases there due to the Iranian outbreak. They've announced its going to be a closed door race this morning. Vietnam, which has been very aggressive with its quarantine, looks like its going to be difficult as well.

Certainly they're in trouble. Ferrari's factory is in Modena, which is in the quarantine zone and affects not just them but presumably also their 2 customer teams for getting their engines made, even if Haas and Alfa Romeo's main factories are outside Italy.  Plus also trouble with Pirelli's Milan facility - even if their tyres are made in Romania. AlphaTauri/Toro Rosso factory, curiously, is not a banned area. Such is the time jump to Melbourne that most of the Ferrari personnel have already made the way, although they all face enhanced medical checks. 

MotoGP seems pretty screwed as well. They've already had to bin their opening 2 events in Qatar and Thailand, and by the look of it, what is the new round 1 at the F1 track in Austin is probably going to be in trouble given it presumably falls under the same category of event bans that saw SXSW cancelled.

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

This may seem like an odd thing to say but I think what’s happening in Italy is a good thing, purely from the point of view of will Glastonbury go ahead or not.

The measures they’ve put in place are pretty drastic, but they’re only in place for a month. That’s an acknowledgement that they can’t go on like that indefinitely. Their economy and country would literally grind to a halt and collapse.

So as far as Glastonbury is concerned it’s all about timing, and in that regard we could be lucky or unlucky. If we find ourselves in Italy’s position in a months time it still might just about be ok, anything beyond that and Glastonbury risks getting caught slap bang in the middle of any such similar measures our government might decide to take.

ive been wondering why we haven't done similar early on ? we are going to realistically start hitting the numbers of italy at some point aren't we ? I know the economic impact but surely a better way is to shut it down early ? or have I missed something ? 

[chazwwe]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

ive been wondering why we haven't done similar early on ? we are going to realistically start hitting the numbers of italy at some point aren't we ? I know the economic impact but surely a better way is to shut it down early ? or have I missed something ? 

The thing is, its wide spread in Italy so they're trying to contain it and slow down numbers.

Its not that wide spread here yet, so if we shut down the country/airports/schools how long do we do that for? Because its still out there in other countries and all it takes is for a few people to fly over here after the shut down who have it for it to start up again.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, chazwwe said:

The thing is, its wide spread in Italy so they're trying to contain it and slow down numbers.

Its not that wide spread here yet, so if we shut down the country/airports/schools how long do we do that for? Because its still out there in other countries and all it takes is for a few people to fly over here after the shut down who have it for it to start up again.

 so we would need a worldwide shut down for that to work ... thanks 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, chazwwe said:

The thing is, its wide spread in Italy so they're trying to contain it and slow down numbers.

Its not that wide spread here yet, so if we shut down the country/airports/schools how long do we do that for? Because its still out there in other countries and all it takes is for a few people to fly over here after the shut down who have it for it to start up again.

Either all international travel is banned now or you try and ride through it. 
 

The government obviously think the cost of riding through it is less than a full quarantine which probably isn’t likely to achieve much anyway. 
 

Might as well carry on and keep the economy going as best we can. 

[Lycra]

38 minutes ago, March Hare said:

Soap! Washing your hands properly with soap also works!

Washing you hands (and any other bits) properly with saop and water as advised for 20secs is the best defence against viral infection. Most of us have seen how to do it properly on a hospital program.

A good sanitiser works well on most (not all) virues but it needs to be left on the skin to dry naturally to have most effect. They also need to be rubbed well around all the hands; not just a cursory like squirt and quick smear round like most of us seem to do at fests.

[chazwwe]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

 so we would need a worldwide shut down for that to work ... thanks 

At least from my thinking? Which is not educated in this field so like a lot of us here, just guess work.

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Either all international travel is banned now or you try and ride through it. 
 

The government obviously think the cost of riding through it is less than a full quarantine which probably isn’t likely to achieve much anyway. 
 

Might as well carry on and keep the economy going as best we can. 

I don't even think its an economy level but also a public mental welfare. We have <200 infected in a country(UK) of 65> Million. We've already seen what just media coverage is doing to peoples mindset. If the Prime Minster was to step up and say to control this we're putting the country on lock down, it'll cause so many more issues they then have to deal with. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, chazwwe said:

The thing is, its wide spread in Italy so they're trying to contain it and slow down numbers.

Its not that wide spread here yet, so if we shut down the country/airports/schools how long do we do that for? Because its still out there in other countries and all it takes is for a few people to fly over here after the shut down who have it for it to start up again.

That's not true if we're trying to delay rather than contain the virus. Shutting things down will slow down the increase in cases, even if some get through the gaps. Since it seems that community transmission has begun in earnest, we can't stop it. All we can do is spread out the cases to reduce the load on the healthcare providers.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Either all international travel is banned now or you try and ride through it. 
 

The government obviously think the cost of riding through it is less than a full quarantine which probably isn’t likely to achieve much anyway. 
 

Might as well carry on and keep the economy going as best we can. 

Yes, but at the moment we have much, much fewer cases than Italy so it’s not to say we won’t go down the same route if and when we get to their numbers.

The worry for Glastonbury is the timing of that. Realistically it seems you can only pull the measures that Italy are pulling for a certain period, you can’t do it indefinitely as your country will quite literally collapse. If that period happens to be a month it’s just a question of if we hit Italy’s numbers within a month or so of Glastonbury, and if our Government decide to take the same approach.

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That's not true if we're trying to delay rather than contain the virus. Shutting things down will slow down the increase in cases, even if some get through the gaps. Since it seems that community transmission has begun in earnest, we can't stop it. All we can do is spread out the cases to reduce the load on the healthcare providers.

I was more in saying I don't think we have the numbers to say 'lets shut down the country' because in a few months it'll still be out there. Italy are in a very dangerous state right now where they have to stop people interacting so they can handle the people they already have infected. 

[March Hare]

All companies and governments need to leave themselves options to dial up a response. The Italian response is at the extreme end and doesn’t leave them much room to do more other than prolonging the quarantine.  Not that I want to support BJ but right now our response is proportionate and leaves us options.

The kicking the Italian economy (which is already fragile) is taking is unbelievable. Sadly it’s going to mean more unemployment and as always it will affect the poorest first. Let’s hope we don’t need to do the same. It’s poor people who will always come out worse in that situation.

[Ayrshire Chris]

Just now, chazwwe said:

At least from my thinking? Which is not educated in this field so like a lot of us here, just guess work.

I don't even think its an economy level but also a public mental welfare. We have <200 infected in a country(UK) of 65> Million. We've already seen what just media coverage is doing to peoples mindset. If the Prime Minster was to step up and say to control this we're putting the country on lock down, it'll cause so many more issues they then have to deal with. 

Cancelling flights, closing down public events, restrictions on pubs, restaurants and clubs, shutting schools, restricting travel would have a devastating effect on the economy. And even then it wouldn’t guarantee that the virus wouldn’t spread. We need personal responsibility. Washing hands etc as frequently mentioned, vulnerable people and those already ill self isolating. 

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes, but at the moment we have much, much fewer cases than Italy so it’s not to say we won’t go down the same route if and when we get to their numbers.

The worry for Glastonbury is the timing of that. Realistically it seems you can only pull the measures that Italy are pulling for a certain period, you can’t do it indefinitely as your country will quite literally collapse. If that period happens to be a month it’s just a question of if we hit Italy’s numbers within a month or so of Glastonbury, and if our Government decide to take the same approach.

And this is my only concern in regards to Glastonbury shutting down, it wont just be Glastonbury it'll be the country so again I'll tout this until its over.

IF Glastonbury is stopped, we have much bigger things to worry about than our favourite festival. Because it'll be the whole country on lock. 

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Cancelling flights, closing down public events, restrictions on pubs, restaurants and clubs, shutting schools, restricting travel would have a devastating effect on the economy. And even then it wouldn’t guarantee that the virus wouldn’t spread. We need personal responsibility. Washing hands etc as frequently mentioned, vulnerable people and those already ill self isolating. 

Yep, from my basic thinking. Shutting down the country is last resort. The hope that I've seen/been spoken about is that numbers slowly go up but they can concentrate on the more vulnerable ones. An out break on the scale of Italy is probably likely to happen, its just when/how soon it happens and if the country is prepared, rather than just throwing hands in the air and going 'we're gonna stop everything' which sadly Italy have had to do. 

[efcfanwirral]

46 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

This could be the wake up call America needs. I doubt it will make a difference though. It will always be profits over people. 

I actually think they could ultimately profit FROM this afterwards. If they can keep the official numbers down by not testing and going with the whole "its endemic anyway", they can point towards their best in the world system and try to "help" pick up the pieces in other countries after people lose faith in their healthcare systems. A good enough propaganda campaign and people would lap it up 

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

I actually think they could ultimately profit FROM this afterwards. If they can keep the official numbers down by not testing and going with the whole "its endemic anyway", they can point towards their best in the world system and try to "help" pick up the pieces in other countries after people lose faith in their healthcare systems. A good enough propaganda campaign and people would lap it up 

Trumps already saying how proud he is that the numbers are so low and that he doesn't want people off the ship so the numbers can stay low, so thats already happening.

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

The Italy thing is quite a big deal. 

Very strongly agree. If you look at the lines of infection across Europe a very significant majority trace back to Italy. You could almost argue Italy has become Europe's Hubei. 

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

Trumps already saying how proud he is that the numbers are so low and that he doesn't want people off the ship so the numbers can stay low, so thats already happening.

If you don’t test people then you can report low numbers.
 

Just ignore the amount of deaths. I think 11 US deaths have come from a single building which has no known connection to any of the global virus hotspots.