Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[jparx]

9 minutes ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

I am just concerned that a decision will be made to cancel Glasto way too far in advance and we'll all be sat here at the end of June livid because everything's blown over. (or atleast much better). 

That was my concern last week, but I feel much more calm about it now. I reckon they will be able to leave the decision for a few months yet, and the later a decision has to be made the more likely it will go ahead IMO. 

This is a festival that didn't even have a licence back in 2002 until late in the day, and still planned full steam ahead and put on the event. They've got plenty of time before the festival and I'm sure they're working with the council to put provisions in place (hand sanitiser stations around the place, maybe some hot water in certain areas etc). Not to mention all the noise about open air events being a minimal risk etc.

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, sedra said:

On a positive note the China situation looks a lot better, and less cases now reported. So I make that about 3 months to get over the peak and out the other side,  if containment measures put in place? Am more worried about state of my S&S ISA after today than catching the virus🙁

Iran and Italy are looking pretty bad though, hope those fleeing northern Italy before the lock down don't mass spread it to the rest of the country 

[Mr.Tease]

16 minutes ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

I am just concerned that a decision will be made to cancel Glasto way too far in advance and we'll all be sat here at the end of June livid because everything's blown over. (or atleast much better). 

Think I'd be more relieved that's its blown over! 😉

[st dan]

1 minute ago, Gingerfish79 said:

would they look to make a decision before the balance payment date? or push back the balance payment to maximise the time available to make an informed decision?

Logically speaking, I guess it would make sense to push back the balance payment date until an informed decision has been made.
From a business/commercials perspective it could depend if they wanted to sit on the balances whilst a decision is still in the air, and generate interest. Could then be used to reimburse anybody who would be out of pocket in the event of a cancellation, with any surplus going to the associated charities. 

[maelzoid]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

Logically speaking, I guess it would make sense to push back the balance payment date until an informed decision has been made.
From a business/commercials perspective it could depend if they wanted to sit on the balances whilst a decision is still in the air, and generate interest. Could then be used to reimburse anybody who would be out of pocket in the event of a cancellation, with any surplus going to the associated charities. 

I disagree. Whether the full balances are paid or not, they'll still have to deal with a massive refund effort if the event is cancelled.

Also, at this stage, they need the cash to start paying deposits / bonds on things eg. equipment hire, staffing, acts. The money won't just be sitting there.

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, maelzoid said:

I disagree. Whether the full balances are paid or not, they'll still have to deal with a massive refund effort if the event is cancelled.

Also, at this stage, they need the cash to start paying deposits / bonds on things eg. equipment hire, staffing, acts. The money won't just be sitting there.

All they can do is carry on as normal as possible and only pull the plug if the government say they have to. 

[thrillhouse188]

I still think they'll just plough ahead as normal, and only cancel if required by government intervention. Spoke with my Dad again over the weekend and he seems relatively unfazed so I'm remaining optimistic. By June it will be too widespread for any counter measure to be at all effective, so no point cancelling anything. Best to just focus all resources on those most at risk, and let younger/healthier people deal with it by self isolating and treating at home, unless of course the symptoms become more severe. Reducing strain on NHS will probably be most effective in reducing mortality rate

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Unless they are sitting on pots of cash which they can use instead, which of course they might be, I can’t see them pushing the balance payment date back or it benefiting anybody for them to do so. From a logistical point of view they are going to need to start doing stuff and paying for stuff I would imagine shortly after the balance payment window. I don’t think logistically they’re on a position where they can just push that date back and sit on their hands.

[dotdash79]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Unless they are sitting on pots of cash which they can use instead, which of course they might be, I can’t see them pushing the balance payment date back or it benefiting anybody for them to do so. From a logistical point of view they are going to need to start doing stuff and paying for stuff I would imagine shortly after the balance payment window. I don’t think logistically they’re on a position where they can just push that date back and sit on their hands.

The festival has £10 million cash in the bank in case of issues. 
 

Why Glastonbury has £10m in the bank https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48750501

[Madyaker]

5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Unless they are sitting on pots of cash which they can use instead, which of course they might be, I can’t see them pushing the balance payment date back or it benefiting anybody for them to do so. From a logistical point of view they are going to need to start doing stuff and paying for stuff I would imagine shortly after the balance payment window. I don’t think logistically they’re on a position where they can just push that date back and sit on their hands.

After reading the book I think they keep loads of cash tbh. They had a few close calls in the past and I think they've taken steps to insulate themselves. I don't think they'll push the date back either, whats to be gained? They'll proceed as normal until the government tells them to do otherwise.

[Euphoricape]

44 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

Spain is getting crazy unfortunately. 236 new cases just this morning, 1000 cases in the country and just in Madrid 450. Blocked soon

Maybe at the end the problem for me it's not going to be if Glasto it's cancel, it's flying there 😂😂

Going on holiday to Malaga at the end of this month. Hows the situation down there?

[maelzoid]

I also think the idea of 'when a decision is made' could be misleading. I certainly think that they could decide to cancel and that will be that, but there'll be no firm decision that it's definitely not being cancelled until the eleventh hour. While it's still going ahead, as it is now, and while the virus is still at large, I fear the threat of cancellation will be hanging over it until the last minute.

[The Nal]

It just seems very unlikely to me that they can have a festival that requires about half a million people from all over the world traveling to a farm in the middle of nowhere with limited access and medical facilities where everyone will be in very close contact for 5 days.

I think the best we can hope for is the weather stalls it as there does seem to be a correlation between cases in the northern hemisphere wheres its winter/spring and the southern hemisphere where its summer/autumn.

[AlexOvd]

3 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Going on holiday to Malaga at the end of this month. Hows the situation down there?

Malaga was initially bad but it's not the worst now, should be fine but it can change anytime. The worst parts at this point are Madrid and Basque Country and they are meeting this afternoon with the regions to decide if they take exceptional measures. 

[DareToDibble]

I've just had a call from my manager saying a training day we were meant to have tomorrow will now take place via Skype. In short one of the guys on my team attended our team meeting last Thursday... 1 day after his daughter got back from Northern Italy and she now has "a cold".

I can't help but feel this is half the problem. Anyone who has been to any country with Coronavirus will now think a sniffle is them having it, tell their family and friends etc. 1 person has now put around 20-30 people into isolation potentially needlessly. 

Anyway we find out if him and his daughter test positive or negative on Wednesday. Bonkers.

Edited March 9, 2020 by DareToDibble

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, The Nal said:

It just seems very unlikely to me that they can have a festival that requires about half a million people from all over the world traveling to a farm in the middle of nowhere with limited access and medical facilities where everyone will be in very close contact for 5 days.

I think the best we can hope for is the weather stalls it as there does seem to be a correlation between cases in the northern hemisphere wheres its winter/spring and the southern hemisphere where its summer/autumn.

Don’t they have it in Australia though, and some warmer US states? Is there information to suggest the warmer weather will slow it down like normal Flu etc?

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Don’t they have it in Australia though, and some warmer US states? Is there information to suggest the warmer weather will slow it down like normal Flu etc?

If the virus thrives on cold and damp weather we should have about a million cases in the UK by now. 

[Euphoricape]

15 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

Malaga was initially bad but it's not the worst now, should be fine but it can change anytime. The worst parts at this point are Madrid and Basque Country and they are meeting this afternoon with the regions to decide if they take exceptional measures. 

Thanks for the update 👍

[The Nal]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Don’t they have it in Australia though, and some warmer US states? Is there information to suggest the warmer weather will slow it down like normal Flu etc?

Yeah but the cases are very low compared countries which are colder. China is warming up now and cases are declining.

I don't know if theres anymore info out there other than that. 

6 nations is off now. Barca playing Napoli behind closed doors. SXSW cancelled. There isn't a prayer of Glastonbury going ahead if things stay on this trajectory. 

[Copperface]

42 minutes ago, thrillhouse188 said:

I still think they'll just plough ahead as normal, and only cancel if required by government intervention. Spoke with my Dad again over the weekend and he seems relatively unfazed so I'm remaining optimistic. By June it will be too widespread for any counter measure to be at all effective, so no point cancelling anything. Best to just focus all resources on those most at risk, and let younger/healthier people deal with it by self isolating and treating at home, unless of course the symptoms become more severe. Reducing strain on NHS will probably be most effective in reducing mortality rate

Contagion etc may not be the major reason to force a cancellation. It's the infrastructure that enables such an event to go ahead that will be in danger and possibly cause cancellation.

More important will be the availability of the required stewards, security, fire marshals, logistics and emergency services in the event of a pandemic.

There are legal requirements to be met.

In addition, when the NHS and police will be under immense strain, with absences of their own plus additional responsibilities and demand in all areas, they will be looking to minimise what they would class as non essential burdens on their services and a music festival fits that criteria.

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Copperface

[rawrsomesauce]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

6 nations is off now. Barca playing Napoli behind closed doors. SXSW cancelled. There isn't a prayer of Glastonbury going ahead if things stay on this trajectory. 

You say that but Wales v Scotland is still going ahead (for now), no cancellations of football matches in the UK yet, not to mention all the noises previously in the thread that there's no point in cancelling large outdoor gatherings!

Optimism is what we need, and luckily myself and others seem to have it in bucket loads. 

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Yeah but the cases are very low compared countries which are colder. China is warming up now and cases are declining.

I don't know if theres anymore info out there other than that. 

6 nations is off now. Barca playing Napoli behind closed doors. SXSW cancelled. There isn't a prayer of Glastonbury going ahead if things stay on this trajectory. 

If Glastonbury was next week then I’d say it was in danger. It’s about 100 days away. Plenty of time for things to either improve or get to the point where cancelling it won’t make a difference. 

[Hugh Jass]

Ladies and gentlemen.... Jim Corr!

 

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, rawrsomesauce said:

You say that but Wales v Scotland is still going ahead (for now), no cancellations of football matches in the UK yet, not to mention all the noises previously in the thread that there's no point in cancelling large outdoor gatherings!

Optimism is what we need, and luckily myself and others seem to have it in bucket loads. 

It'll take all the optimism we have in the face of the mighty Nal!

[Lycra]

18 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

All they can do is carry on as normal as possible and only pull the plug if the government say they have to. 

This is the key point. GFL will act if they are compelled to by government. This will probably enable them to invoke "Force Majeure" in contracts they have with artists and suppliers, though I note from elsewhere some artists in the US have demanded "Force Majeure" be written out of contracts to guarantee fees are paid.

If, by going to the delay phase, government imposes restrictions on mass gatherings to slow down the rate of transmission, the question then becomes, "will this be effective and if so how long do the controls need to be in force?"       Answer ......nobody knows

March is still the critical month for me as April onwards sees the roll out of the fest. From balance payment, resales etc to preparing the site, the plans kick in. If we enter April with restrictions in place under which the fest cannot operate and with no end date in sight, then GLF will have a onerous decision to make.