Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Doug85]

The whole outbreak is quite similar to this film really. Quite scarily similar. Not as bad obviously but shows how quickly things like this can escalate and then how the media take over. 

[Woffy]

I dunno if it’s been shared on here already, but this is an informative read:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

[jparx]

I don't think looking at the Euros and Olympics is that indicative of what will happen with Glastonbury. Those events, particularly the Euros with the various host countries, will involve hundreds of thousands of people travelling from all across the world. 

Most of the ticket holders and acts at Glastonbury will be coming from the UK. There may end up being travel restrictions on people/acts coming from certain countries, but we'd need the situation in the UK to escalate severely for it to be cancelled, and I certainly don't see them making that decision early. May/June would be decision time. 

[AlexOvd]

China reports 52 more virus deaths, lowest in 3 weeks, also cases decreasing. Looks like they are controlling it while it's expanding now in other countries. 

[Havors]

27 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

China reports 52 more virus deaths, lowest in 3 weeks, also cases decreasing. Looks like they are controlling it while it's expanding now in other countries. 

Yeah I think other countries have been slack to start with but I would like to hope especially the UK will get it under control quicker as we are unlikely to have an outbreak anything like the scale of China. Fingers crossed its all under control within a month or so. 

[waynewdk]

Glastonbury would be a good opportunity to give 200k people the vaccine on the way out

[northernringo]

Today's update:

Not a great day again yesterday - Middle East taking off and the issues in Europe have been discussed here at length already.

In China, active cases are just short of 2000 down since yesterday to 45,492 cases. That's a reduction in 12,000 active cases since February 19th (this day last week). This is obviously great news and hopefully the trend continues in this way. Singapore had a few recoveries yesterday so they are now down to 33 cases from an original 91. Macau is down one more to just 3 active cases but sadly that's the last of the good news in Asia.

Thailand has 3 more active cases since yesterday, Hong Kong 5 and Japan is up 10. South Korea up just under 200 so now 1112 active cases in South Korea. It'll be probably another week and a half before we see too many recoveries from their spike. That is pretty much it for Asia so apart from South Korea not too much to worry about yet.

In the middle east, Iran continues to rise. Up to 79 active cases with 16 deaths on top of that (although only one more death since my stats yesterday). No change in Iran, Lebanon, UAE, Afghanistan and Egypt but a large spike to 23 in Bahrain. Further increases in Oman (up to 4), Kuwait (11) and Iraq (5). In Africa, Algeria becomes the second country with a case (1).

In Europe, we saw new cases in Croatia (1), Switzerland (1) and Austria (2). Germany has two more cases (4), France as expected is no longer 'recovered' (2 cases) and Spain has increased to 7 active cases. UK, Finland, Belgium and Sweden have no change. In Italy, the figures continue to grow with 49 new cases since yesterday's stats (similar growth rate to the previous day). This coming week/fortnight in Europe will be very important. If it can reduce new cases and stop another Italy before Italy reaches it's spike then I think things will improve.

In the rest of the world, no change all countries except USA which is up 3 overall (including 1 recovery). These 3 could be new cases or could be boat related. I'd expect quite a few of the boat's 688 infected to recover in the coming days (I noticed one of Israel's recovered today).

[AlexOvd]

5 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Today's update:

Not a great day again yesterday - Middle East taking off and the issues in Europe have been discussed here at length already.

In China, active cases are just short of 2000 down since yesterday to 45,492 cases. That's a reduction in 12,000 active cases since February 19th (this day last week). This is obviously great news and hopefully the trend continues in this way. Singapore had a few recoveries yesterday so they are now down to 33 cases from an original 91. Macau is down one more to just 3 active cases but sadly that's the last of the good news in Asia.

Thailand has 3 more active cases since yesterday, Hong Kong 5 and Japan is up 10. South Korea up just under 200 so now 1112 active cases in South Korea. It'll be probably another week and a half before we see too many recoveries from their spike. That is pretty much it for Asia so apart from South Korea not too much to worry about yet.

In the middle east, Iran continues to rise. Up to 79 active cases with 16 deaths on top of that (although only one more death since my stats yesterday). No change in Iran, Lebanon, UAE, Afghanistan and Egypt but a large spike to 23 in Bahrain. Further increases in Oman (up to 4), Kuwait (11) and Iraq (5). In Africa, Algeria becomes the second country with a case (1).

In Europe, we saw new cases in Croatia (1), Switzerland (1) and Austria (2). Germany has two more cases (4), France as expected is no longer 'recovered' (2 cases) and Spain has increased to 7 active cases. UK, Finland, Belgium and Sweden have no change. In Italy, the figures continue to grow with 49 new cases since yesterday's stats (similar growth rate to the previous day). This coming week/fortnight in Europe will be very important. If it can reduce new cases and stop another Italy before Italy reaches it's spike then I think things will improve.

In the rest of the world, no change all countries except USA which is up 3 overall (including 1 recovery). These 3 could be new cases or could be boat related. I'd expect quite a few of the boat's 688 infected to recover in the coming days (I noticed one of Israel's recovered today).

The cases of Spain for now are cases imported from northern Italy - not direct contagion yet. The priority of Europe now it has to be control that area of Italy.

For me it's quite interesting how South America, Africa and countries with summer are holding the virus. The fact that the virus is not that effective in hot temperatures seems real.

[alexabrown252]

A doctor I know told me that elderly people should be wary of this virus. And the great news is that these masks (which have run out in all pharmacies and stores) do not help avoid it. They help not infect others if you are sick yourself and wear this mask.

[northernringo]

7 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

The cases of Spain for now are cases imported from northern Italy - not direct contagion yet. The priority of Europe now it has to be control that area of Italy.

For me it's quite interesting how South America, Africa and countries with summer are holding the virus. The fact that the virus is not that effective in hot temperatures seems real.

I'm also hopeful that this is the case but it is more likely down to the fact that travel between Asia and these regions is not as common. We'll know better if any country in LatAm/Africa gets a number of infections confirmed. Australia seem to be coping well with it and not having an issue as yet but that may be down to their reaction to it than their summer climate.

[MaxPower]

1 hour ago, jparx said:

I don't think looking at the Euros and Olympics is that indicative of what will happen with Glastonbury. Those events, particularly the Euros with the various host countries, will involve hundreds of thousands of people travelling from all across the world. 

Most of the ticket holders and acts at Glastonbury will be coming from the UK. There may end up being travel restrictions on people/acts coming from certain countries, but we'd need the situation in the UK to escalate severely for it to be cancelled, and I certainly don't see them making that decision early. May/June would be decision time. 

Yeah completely agree. Euro2020 or the Olympics and Glastonbury are in no way comparable for lots of reasons:

• The number of people attending those events eclipses Glastonbury - about 200k all in for Glasto, 2.5 million for Euros in a normal year, about a million foreign visitors for the Olympics (not deducting those that won't travel because of coronavirus fears) in addition to the millions of local attendees.
• The Euros are hosted (stupidly) throughout the continent (and in Baku...), so the risk is far greater than being on one isolated Island in the north atlantic. 
• The Olympics are being held in Japan, a high risk Coronavirus country.
• The PR profile of both those events is wayyyyy bigger than Glastonbruy, so the pressure from the press and social media will likely be much greater.
• Both the Euros and the Olympics will involve many people travellig from all around the world, including high risk coronavirus areas. This just isn't the case for Glastonbury.

Think the only really valid comparisons is if domestic football, rugby matches or festivals in the UK in May are moved or cancelled is the only real indicator we have.

[AlexOvd]

13 minutes ago, northernringo said:

I'm also hopeful that this is the case but it is more likely down to the fact that travel between Asia and these regions is not as common. We'll know better if any country in LatAm/Africa gets a number of infections confirmed. Australia seem to be coping well with it and not having an issue as yet but that may be down to their reaction to it than their summer climate.

Australia is super touristy and the amount of CN traveling there is super high (probably the first nationality in terms of visitors). Somehow they are holding it. With Africa I agree but South America is also touristy in some parts with many international flights. 

Also (and it can be a coincidence most likely) I find interesting that the Outbreak in Italy took place in the coldest regions of the country.

Edited February 26, 2020 by AlexOvd

[AlexOvd]

5 minutes ago, MaxPower said:

Yeah completely agree. Euro2020 or the Olympics and Glastonbury are in no way comparable for lots of reasons:

• The number of people attending those events eclipses Glastonbury - about 200k all in for Glasto, 2.5 million for Euros in a normal year, about a million foreign visitors for the Olympics (not deducting those that won't travel because of coronavirus fears) in addition to the millions of local attendees.
• The Euros are hosted (stupidly) throughout the continent (and in Baku...), so the risk is far greater than being on one isolated Island in the north atlantic. 
• The Olympics are being held in Japan, a high risk Coronavirus country.
• The PR profile of both those events is wayyyyy bigger than Glastonbruy, so the pressure from the press and social media will likely be much greater.
• Both the Euros and the Olympics will involve many people travellig from all around the world, including high risk coronavirus areas. This just isn't the case for Glastonbury.

Think the only really valid comparisons is if domestic football, rugby matches or festivals in the UK in May are moved or cancelled is the only real indicator we have.

The indicator we have are music festivals in Europe and the UK, that's it. In April/May we will have some to have a look and then predict. 

And if we look in other continents, festival season in USA and South America is even earlier. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by AlexOvd

[northernringo]

12 minutes ago, MaxPower said:

Yeah completely agree. Euro2020 or the Olympics and Glastonbury are in no way comparable for lots of reasons:

• The number of people attending those events eclipses Glastonbury - about 200k all in for Glasto, 2.5 million for Euros in a normal year, about a million foreign visitors for the Olympics (not deducting those that won't travel because of coronavirus fears) in addition to the millions of local attendees.
• The Euros are hosted (stupidly) throughout the continent (and in Baku...), so the risk is far greater than being on one isolated Island in the north atlantic. 
• The Olympics are being held in Japan, a high risk Coronavirus country.
• The PR profile of both those events is wayyyyy bigger than Glastonbruy, so the pressure from the press and social media will likely be much greater.
• Both the Euros and the Olympics will involve many people travellig from all around the world, including high risk coronavirus areas. This just isn't the case for Glastonbury.

Think the only really valid comparisons is if domestic football, rugby matches or festivals in the UK in May are moved or cancelled is the only real indicator we have.

You make some valid points but those events can also be held without fans - Glastonbury can't.

Don't get me wrong, it would be a drastic measure, but they would be able to restrict fan access.

[Smeble]

The numbers decreasing in China is positive news, and I mean for everyone not just those of us wanting to go to a festival in June. If it’s a permanent trend then maybe it means the virus has run its course.

[northernringo]

Greece have now reported their first case.

[northernringo]

Brazil are due to announce their first case too so it will be interesting to see what happens in South America.

[The Nal]

9 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Greece have now reported their first case.

They'll have to close the Rhodes.

[Gilb]

 

...found on Facebook so it must be true and explains everything! 😜

Tin foil hats! (who makes them..? Asking for a friend)

[stuie]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/26/canary-wharf-offices-lockdown-worker-suffers-coronavirus-symptoms-12306334/

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Gilb said:

 

...found on Facebook so it must be true and explains everything! 😜

Tin foil hats! (who makes them..? Asking for a friend)

you'd have thought if the nasties were that evil they wouldn't bother being devious with both of the smart dust and the 5G alongside the virus, but hey, they're so much clever than me they must know what they're doing.  

[Lycra]

The corona situation is dynamic and the next 4 weeks will be crucial to shaping events later this year. The Chinese appear to be showing the one way forward in fighting a mass outbreak of the disease if the reported decline in deaths and the reduced number of new infections are correct. However they are paying a huge price with compulsory  quarentine of vast areas, factory closures, travel restrictions and the cancellation of mass gathering events. Would Europe and the UK follow suit if the situation got worse? Events in Italy and the statement from the Irish Goverment concerning the Ireland/Italy rugby point that way.

 

54 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

For me it's quite interesting how South America, Africa and countries with summer are holding the virus. The fact that the virus is not that effective in hot temperatures seems real.

Do outbreaks and epidemics do regularly  occur in hot countries and the Spanish flu pandemic affected nations around the globe and on every continent. From Inuits in the arctic to tribesmen in Africa and Pacific Islanders. Pathological studies show that there is a peak season in each area for flu but by definition flu is still around in the low season....just less cases. Also it is not simply a case of hot and cold or people staying inside. In the UK (& Europe & Canada/USA) the peak season is in cold winter, whilst in tropical areas it is hot. There appears no consensus between meds on the reason for this differential but one active link is centring on humidity.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Lycra said:

one active link is centring on humidity.

we're fucked with all this rain, then.

 

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

we're fucked with all this rain, then.

 

Is it too late to apply to be a stallholder? I spy an entrepreneurial  opportunity to clean up selling masks and tissues.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Lycra

[uscore]

1 hour ago, northernringo said:

You make some valid points but those events can also be held without fans - Glastonbury can't.

Don't get me wrong, it would be a drastic measure, but they would be able to restrict fan access.

It would be weird to have Glastonbury on, but without any attendees.  Bands playing to an empty field.  A bit like Courteneers when Liam Gallagher is on.