Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[northernringo]

20 minutes ago, Andy0808 v5 said:

Where’s the latest figures post?! I’ve been checking back for it constantly 

Apologies! Busy morning.

The figures were taken around 9.30-9.45 so there may well have been some change between then and writing my post.

[squirrelarmy]

10 minutes ago, Lycra said:

I won't be so certain as the risk as assessed today would be very low as numbers infected in the UK are extremely small and cancellations cannot be justified. However this could change at any point as we go forward. Each event would also carry it's own specific risk. As a single event festival attracting global travellers and with a population of 235,000 intermingling for 5 days in close contact with reduced hygiene would carry much greater risk than a football match with an attendance ca. 50,000

Out of the events listed I think the London marathon will be the most critical. It’s an international event with a high attendance from people across the country and world. It’s also not an event that can be held behind closed doors either.
 

While the competitors themselves will be at peak physical condition and will be at low risk of infection many of the attendees would be in higher risk categories. If it still goes ahead then I can’t see them cancelling Glastonbury or other festivals.

[Hugh Jass]

1 hour ago, jyoung said:

Steering away from the virus for a moment...

As if this is a national fucking NEWSpaper. Just look at it. Everything about it absolutely stinks. You'd think it was a spoof, wouldn't you?! Every single section of that front cover is ridiculous. Humans have a lot to answer for.

What have you got against saving money I’m budget supermarkets eh?

[s30foster]

54 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

The biggest UK event in the same time period is the Cheltenham Festival. The next two really large gatherings of people after that will be the London Marathon and Grand National. If all these events go ahead as planned then we have nothing to worry about. 
 

 

The Bath Half Marathon is in 2 weeks time. There's over 11000 participants plus however many other people watching. We've had nothing from them in regards to it but found this on their FAQ's...wondering when/if it'll be updated or we'll receive more information soon...

 

Q – Could the race be cancelled due to Coronavirus?

A – We continue to monitor this situation closely and are consulting with our local public and health authorities and our medical providers to put appropriate guidance and contingencies in place so that the event can go ahead safely. Our Medical Director works in the NHS and has been working on resilience and planning around the virus. If you feel unwell and have contact with or travelled to one of the at risk areas (mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau) in the last 14 days please phone 111 and seek advice.

 

 

[Lycra]

19 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Out of the events listed I think the London marathon will be the most critical. It’s an international event with a high attendance from people across the country and world. It’s also not an event that can be held behind closed doors either.
 

While the competitors themselves will be at peak physical condition and will be at low risk of infection many of the attendees would be in higher risk categories. If it still goes ahead then I can’t see them cancelling Glastonbury or other festivals.

What would happen if the infection rate remained very low allowing the London Marathon to go ahead and then the infection rate increased thereafter ?

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, Lycra said:

What would happen if the infection rate remained very low allowing the London Marathon to go ahead and then the infection rate increased thereafter ?

That event falls exactly halfway between now and Glastonbury. It’s also when the weather will be getting better and flu type viruses will be on the decrease. 
 

Best thing to do is not worry about it being cancelled for now. If the Marathon gets cancelled then it’s time to be more concerned. 

[Freddyflintstonree]

10 minutes ago, Lycra said:

What would happen if the infection rate remained very low allowing the London Marathon to go ahead and then the infection rate increased thereafter ?

There are so many hypotheticals that we can't do anything but speculate until we are much nearer the events that we are talking about, or a major development occurs. At the moment, no one knows.

[stuartbert two hats]

37 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Today's update: (stats checked an hour ago so may have changed)

Further spread as a result of Italy and Iran. Without those two countries, I feel the panic would have subsided massively.

In East Asia, numbers continue to fall drastically in China. Less than 400 new cases yesterday and current infections have now dropped below 40,000 (39,779). This is a drop of 3,411. No change in the Diamond Princess, hoping for more recoveries over the weekend. Also no change in Singapore, Hong Kong (2 new but 2 recoveries too), Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines. Thailand reported 1 new case but also 6 recoveries so down to 13 active at the minute. Japan seem to be very slow in announcing recoveries but I'm not sure why that is the case. Still only 22 recoveries from their 226 cases so they are up to 200 active cases now. I'd like to hope over the weekend they announce a significant amount of recoveries. Macau is down 1 (2) and Malaysia and Taiwan are up 1 (5 & 27).

South Korea continuing to be the big issue in East Asia, a jump of around 750 cases yesterday and no new recoveries (thankfully no deaths either). Again, I'd be optimistic for their recovery rate to improve in the coming days.

In the Middle East, I actually became cautiously optimistic when looking at the figures. I must say though that I don't trust Iran's figures (most people don't) but they have increased to 195 now. The rest of the region didn't do as bad as I expected though. Afghanistan (1), Lebanon (2), Oman (4) and Bahrain (33) showed no changes while there were small increases for Israel (3) and Iraq (7). Kuwait had a fairly significant jump to 43 cases however. As would be expected at this point, no new recoveries in these regions. UAE did have one new recovery but this was offset by 6 new cases so up to 14 now.

In Africa, the worry is that Nigeria have now a case (an Italian man). Nigeria's defence systems have supposedly improved due to the Ebola crisis so hopefully it can be contained. Algeria remains on 1 case and Egypt's only case has recovered.

Europe on the face of it looks like it could become pretty bad. Plenty of 'new' countries again but thankfully case numbers are still low in a lot of places. Newly infected Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus and San Marino all have only one case. Georgia (1), Finland (1), Belgium (0), Norway (1), Denmark (1), Croatia (3), Macedonia (1), Estonia (1) and Romania (1)  have announced no changes. Greece increased to 3, Austria to 3, Sweden to 7 (a jump of 6) and Switzerland has doubled to 8 cases.

Spain, France and Germany though are becoming worrying for me. Spain jumped 12 (23), France 20 (25) and Germany 20 (32). Hopefully none become the next Italy though. The UK is actually misreported on the dashboard I'm using as Northern Ireland's one case is being double counted as NI and as UK. I'm going to keep them separate going forward. NI as a result has one case and the UK is up 3 to 10 cases.

Italy had their first day of recoveries yesterday (excluding their original 3 cases) with 45 announced but their case number still jumper 155 (593) and will likely to continue to do so. The hope is that they consistently have days of this amount of recoveries.

Not too much change in the rest of the world. No change in India (0), Sri Lanka (0), Nepal (0), Pakistan (2), Russia (0), Australia (12 of which 8 from ship), Brazil (1) and USA (54 of which 42 from ship). New Zealand announced it's first case (1) and Canada had a bit of an increase too, up 3 (8).

This time last week, Italy had 3 cases, Iran 5 and South Korea 156 so it can all change massively in a couple of days. On the other hand, China had 54,859 - nearly 15,000 more than it does now.

My hopes for the weekend are increased recoveries in Japan and South Korea, plus more cruise ship recoveries. No sudden jumps in Europe and Middle East are the best we can hope for on those fronts at this point (and maybe some further Italian and Iranian recoveries). Obviously incredibly important for no more Iran/Italy/South Korea style rises anywhere in the world as well.

Is the data on this site good?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[BlackZeppelin]

7 hours ago, kalifire said:

Yeah, Cathay via Hong Kong in June. Everything is still on at this stage, as far as I'm aware. I've had no information to say otherwise. It's worrying, though. If HK can keep it contained at current levels, there shouldn't be any forced quarantine. I'm quietly hopeful.

What about you?

Much the same. Flight centre advice is not to change flights and let Cathay re allocate tickets on alternative airlines if they cancel HK connections. We will sit tight at this stage.

Apparently the will do fever temperature testing before regarding at HK...so take a couple of panadol before you touch down just in case you run a minor fever.

[northernringo]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Is the data on this site good?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That's the site I've been using, it is widely regarded as one of the best.

I have noticed a couple of strange things but think they were down to things like Diamond Ship figures being reported in different areas and it seems to be sorted now. They are clearly trying to sort their NI/UK issue too, hence them having no UK data at the minute. Small discrepancies in the figures the Associated Press have reported but nothing major (and hard to know who to follow). 

Sources are listed at the bottom:

Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.

[Lycra]

23 minutes ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

There are so many hypotheticals that we can't do anything but speculate until we are much nearer the events that we are talking about, or a major development occurs. At the moment, no one knows.

Correct. It's very much a waiting game 

[JSmurphy]

1 hour ago, northernringo said:

Today's update: (stats checked an hour ago so may have changed)

Further spread as a result of Italy and Iran. Without those two countries, I feel the panic would have subsided massively.

In East Asia, numbers continue to fall drastically in China. Less than 400 new cases yesterday and current infections have now dropped below 40,000 (39,779). This is a drop of 3,411. No change in the Diamond Princess, hoping for more recoveries over the weekend. Also no change in Singapore, Hong Kong (2 new but 2 recoveries too), Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines. Thailand reported 1 new case but also 6 recoveries so down to 13 active at the minute. Japan seem to be very slow in announcing recoveries but I'm not sure why that is the case. Still only 22 recoveries from their 226 cases so they are up to 200 active cases now. I'd like to hope over the weekend they announce a significant amount of recoveries. Macau is down 1 (2) and Malaysia and Taiwan are up 1 (5 & 27).

South Korea continuing to be the big issue in East Asia, a jump of around 750 cases yesterday and no new recoveries (thankfully no deaths either). Again, I'd be optimistic for their recovery rate to improve in the coming days.

In the Middle East, I actually became cautiously optimistic when looking at the figures. I must say though that I don't trust Iran's figures (most people don't) but they have increased to 195 now. The rest of the region didn't do as bad as I expected though. Afghanistan (1), Lebanon (2), Oman (4) and Bahrain (33) showed no changes while there were small increases for Israel (3) and Iraq (7). Kuwait had a fairly significant jump to 43 cases however. As would be expected at this point, no new recoveries in these regions. UAE did have one new recovery but this was offset by 6 new cases so up to 14 now.

In Africa, the worry is that Nigeria have now a case (an Italian man). Nigeria's defence systems have supposedly improved due to the Ebola crisis so hopefully it can be contained. Algeria remains on 1 case and Egypt's only case has recovered.

Europe on the face of it looks like it could become pretty bad. Plenty of 'new' countries again but thankfully case numbers are still low in a lot of places. Newly infected Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus and San Marino all have only one case. Georgia (1), Finland (1), Belgium (0), Norway (1), Denmark (1), Croatia (3), Macedonia (1), Estonia (1) and Romania (1)  have announced no changes. Greece increased to 3, Austria to 3, Sweden to 7 (a jump of 6) and Switzerland has doubled to 8 cases.

Spain, France and Germany though are becoming worrying for me. Spain jumped 12 (23), France 20 (25) and Germany 20 (32). Hopefully none become the next Italy though. The UK is actually misreported on the dashboard I'm using as Northern Ireland's one case is being double counted as NI and as UK. I'm going to keep them separate going forward. NI as a result has one case and the UK is up 3 to 10 cases.

Italy had their first day of recoveries yesterday (excluding their original 3 cases) with 45 announced but their case number still jumper 155 (593) and will likely to continue to do so. The hope is that they consistently have days of this amount of recoveries.

Not too much change in the rest of the world. No change in India (0), Sri Lanka (0), Nepal (0), Pakistan (2), Russia (0), Australia (12 of which 8 from ship), Brazil (1) and USA (54 of which 42 from ship). New Zealand announced it's first case (1) and Canada had a bit of an increase too, up 3 (8).

This time last week, Italy had 3 cases, Iran 5 and South Korea 156 so it can all change massively in a couple of days. On the other hand, China had 54,859 - nearly 15,000 more than it does now.

My hopes for the weekend are increased recoveries in Japan and South Korea, plus more cruise ship recoveries. No sudden jumps in Europe and Middle East are the best we can hope for on those fronts at this point (and maybe some further Italian and Iranian recoveries). Obviously incredibly important for no more Iran/Italy/South Korea style rises anywhere in the world as well.

These updates are great. I read them everyday. Thank you.

[northernringo]

2 minutes ago, JSmurphy said:

These updates are great. I read them everyday. Thank you.

No problem

Just in case anyone hadn't noticed last weekend, I won't be doing them on Saturday/Sundays so I'll pick it up again on Monday morning (hopefully with good news for us all).

[lukethekid]

44 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.

No YMCA?

[The Nal]

All the flights at John Lennon Airport have been grounded.

Imagine all the people.

 

 

 

Sorry not sorry

[scaryclaireyfairy]

I'm using this thread as my primary source of info.  Big thanks to those filtering the headlines and hysteria.

[mashedonmud]

20 minutes ago, The Nal said:

All the flights at John Lennon Airport have been grounded.

Imagine all the people.

 

 

 

Sorry not sorry

Not that you need encouragement but..

I can hear them now discussing how it's 'Here, There And Everywhere' . Some saying 'I Feel Fine' others shouting 'Help' and some screaming don't 'Stand By Me' 

I'll stop because the list seems endless. 😀

 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

23 minutes ago, scaryclaireyfairy said:

I'm using this thread as my primary source of info.  Big thanks to those filtering the headlines and hysteria.

I'd avoid @The Nal posts in that case 😂

Edited February 28, 2020 by Supernintendo Chalmers

[stuie]

If you are planning on travelling in the next few months and have booked flights or accommodation, buy your travel insurance NOW and buy a good quality product.

I usually leave it until the last minute but this isn't a good idea at the moment.

[scaryclaireyfairy]

10 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I'd avoid @The Nal posts in that case 😂

If it gets to the stage that the weather thread and this thread are active at the same time, Nal will be like a dog with 2 tails. 🤣

[northernringo]

4 minutes ago, stuie said:

If you are planning on travelling in the next few months and have booked flights or accommodation, buy your travel insurance NOW and buy a good quality product.

I usually leave it until the last minute but this isn't a good idea at the moment.

Also important to note that most 'off the shelves' insurance policies do not automatically cover you if the FCO advise against all but essential travel.

I had been looking a couple of weeks ago for insurance for my Thailand trip and used compare the market and emailed a few companies to enquire. They all told me it was an add-on so I went direct with one and it only ended up costing £2 more for the add-on. 

[Dronx]

Switzerland have cancelled all events with more then a thousand in attendance  

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Dronx said:

Switzerland have cancelled all events with more then a thousand in attendance  

I saw that posted earlier I think but its confused me as to why this figure ?   how on earth did they come by it ? 

[1986]

First case confirmed in Mexico, UK total goes up to 19.

 

[Avalon_Fields]

51 minutes ago, The Nal said:

All the flights at John Lennon Airport have been grounded.

Imagine all the people.

Their 'Above us only sky' motto now fully accurate then

The Beatles wrote some of the best lyrics ever of course, especially the song 'Flying':

Tra la la la la la
Tra la la la la la
Tra la la la la
Tra la la la la la
Ahhhhhhh

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Avalon_Fields