When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

woah, that's not very easy to read is it? Anyway...serology tests in Wuhan showing only 2-3% of those in hospital have immunity.

edit. ah, if click on it easier to read.

Edited April 18, 2020 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

Number of deaths to pass 15000 today? Over 20000 by end of next week? Weren't they hoping to keep number of deaths below 20000?

[Neil]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Number of deaths to pass 15000 today? Over 20000 by end of next week? Weren't they hoping to keep number of deaths below 20000?

who'd have thought this govt would miss another of their own targets...?

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Neil said:

who'd have thought this govt would miss another of their own targets...?

Followed shortly after by the testing target 

[steviewevie]

Just got to hope all this optimism about vaccines available in the autumn prove correct.

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

57 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Number of deaths to pass 15000 today? Over 20000 by end of next week? Weren't they hoping to keep number of deaths below 20000?

Is this still deaths that they are reporting from hospitals only?

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Number of deaths to pass 15000 today? Over 20000 by end of next week? Weren't they hoping to keep number of deaths below 20000?

I recollect when all this started that 20000 deaths would be seen as the best result if the virus became community spread. Sadly it’s Beginning  to look as if that was optimistic. We need to see the daily number decreasing though factoring in the care home deaths, some who are already in end of life care, means  that might be difficult. 

[zahidf]

 

[Sasperella]

13 hours ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

 

I love your photos

I've been in Glasgow about 10 months now (which is crazy in itself) and I swear this is the longest stretch of nice weather we've had since I got here. Three and a half weeks and only one incident of rain??? The Glastonbury weather gods have got nothing on the lockdown weather gods. They are proper fuckers. 

[Sasperella]

11 hours ago, gizmoman said:

No but he does say that health workers are by far the most at risk group during a pandemic, the government forgot to mention that when they were asking retired Doctors etc. to volunteer.

I really can't fathom how anyone thought this was a good idea!

10 hours ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Man I was dumped by the Mrs today by text - solo lockdown just became a much more lonely place.

Ah sorry man, that really sucks. I hope you have a lot of friends you can chat to!!!

[zahidf]

Interesting 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

[zahidf]

Idiots 

 

 

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Interesting 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/herd-immunity-is-a-fatal-strategy-we-should-avoid-at-all-costs

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/herd-immunity-is-a-fatal-strategy-we-should-avoid-at-all-costs

And unfortunately the antibody tests from Stanford highlight another problem. Not only are we along way from “herd immunity”, but the level of infection in the population is also too low to make the current antibody tests useful (best tests I’ve seen so far have a sensitivity of about 94% and a specificity of about 96%). At that accuracy, with infection levels below 5%, the tests will be wrong far more often than they are right. Multiple tests improve the accuracy, but you still need either a good deal more people to have been infected, or tests that are more accurate before they start to tell us what the real picture is. 

[Andy0808 v5]

12 hours ago, dizzymoo said:

I know it's not the same thing but it feels like the plot of Jaws unfolding 😟

I’d watch it. That’s how bored I am

Edited April 18, 2020 by Andy0808 v5

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

And unfortunately the antibody tests from Stanford highlight another problem. Not only are we along way from “herd immunity”, but the level of infection in the population is also too low to make the current antibody tests useful (best tests I’ve seen so far have a sensitivity of about 94% and a specificity of about 96%). At that accuracy, with infection levels below 5%, the tests will be wrong far more often than they are right. Multiple tests improve the accuracy, but you still need either a good deal more people to have been infected, or tests that are more accurate before they start to tell us what the real picture is. 

Toilet Duck - what do you think about these stories about a possible vaccine being ready by the autumn?

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Toilet Duck - what do you think about these stories about a possible vaccine being ready by the autumn?

Only phase 1 completed by then unfortunately. What’s not being reported is that the folks running the trials have said they won’t even get a signal on efficacy til May next year at the earliest, so it’s on the same timeframe as all the other vaccine trials that have started. They’ll be vaccinating people in the autumn, but it will be as part of the phase 2 trial. Won’t be mass vaccination of the population. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

2 hours ago, Sasperella said:

I love your photos

I've been in Glasgow about 10 months now (which is crazy in itself) and I swear this is the longest stretch of nice weather we've had since I got here. Three and a half weeks and only one incident of rain??? The Glastonbury weather gods have got nothing on the lockdown weather gods. They are proper fuckers. 

Cheers, I never set out to take photos when out but can’t help it when I see the views! It’s bloody ironic the spell of weather we are having, although the wind is pretty cold. Sad to think at this time the weather nerds on here, of which I am one, would be starting looking at Glasto weather patterns !  

[zahidf]

 

 

[gizmoman]

13 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Only phase 1 completed by then unfortunately. What’s not being reported is that the folks running the trials have said they won’t even get a signal on efficacy til May next year at the earliest, so it’s on the same timeframe as all the other vaccine trials that have started. They’ll be vaccinating people in the autumn, but it will be as part of the phase 2 trial. Won’t be mass vaccination of the population. 

"U.K. scientists to make 1 million potential vaccines before tests to prove it works

A million doses of a potential COVID-19 vaccine being developed by British scientists are already being manufactured and will be available by September, even before trials prove whether the shot is effective, the team said Friday.

The Oxford University team’s experimental product — called “ChAdOx1 nCoV-19” — is a type known as a recombinant viral vector vaccine and is one of at least 70 potential virus vaccines under development by biotech and research teams around the world.

The scientists said in an online briefing they were recruiting volunteers for early stage human trials of their shot, and large-scale production capacity was being put in place “at risk.” This means the shots will be produced in large numbers at risk of being useless if trials show they do not work.

“The aim is to have at least a million doses by around about September, when we also hope to have efficacy trial results,” Adrian Hill, a professor and director of the Jenner Institute at Oxford University, told reporters. He said three of the manufacturing partners were in Britain, two in Europe, one in India and one in China."

 

 

 

They "hope" to have efficacy results in September, who is going to get these 1million doses and when?

 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

"U.K. scientists to make 1 million potential vaccines before tests to prove it works

A million doses of a potential COVID-19 vaccine being developed by British scientists are already being manufactured and will be available by September, even before trials prove whether the shot is effective, the team said Friday.

The Oxford University team’s experimental product — called “ChAdOx1 nCoV-19” — is a type known as a recombinant viral vector vaccine and is one of at least 70 potential virus vaccines under development by biotech and research teams around the world.

The scientists said in an online briefing they were recruiting volunteers for early stage human trials of their shot, and large-scale production capacity was being put in place “at risk.” This means the shots will be produced in large numbers at risk of being useless if trials show they do not work.

“The aim is to have at least a million doses by around about September, when we also hope to have efficacy trial results,” Adrian Hill, a professor and director of the Jenner Institute at Oxford University, told reporters. He said three of the manufacturing partners were in Britain, two in Europe, one in India and one in China."

 

 

 

They "hope" to have efficacy results in September, who is going to get these 1million doses and when?

 

NHS workers and over 70s at a guess

 

Not everyone needs to be vaccinated.  Just enough to stop it spreading as much

Edited April 18, 2020 by zahidf

[gizmoman]

Just now, zahidf said:

NHS workers and over 70s at a guess

Before the vaccine is fully tested?

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Before the vaccine is fully tested?

I assume theyll test it for safety and if its not safe, they'll chuck the 1 million doses away

[Avalon_Fields]

13 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Before the vaccine is fully tested?

It’s hoped to be tested by some volunteers in about a week. It’s only one of many possibles, they just need to have one scheme that’s will work.