When will this shit end?

[gigpusher]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think it’s difficult to explain it away as cultural differences when you’ve got no real difference between Italy who went into full nationwide lockdown before anyone else, and Sweden where bars/restaurants schools etc are all still open.

Do we have any Swedish members or anyone living in Sweden. I seem to think we do but can't remember their name (sorry useless with names!!) Might be worth asking them what it's like on the ground. I have found it interesting talking to people I know in different countries about what they are doing.

[gigpusher]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

my point was more to the effect that the swedes seem to be doing more of a self imposed lockdown .... im sure ive seen that those bars and restaurants are virtually empty anyway without the need for restrictions 

That actually doesn't seem very nice as that means those business owners are suffering without compensation. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Do we have any Swedish members or anyone living in Sweden. I seem to think we do but can't remember their name (sorry useless with names!!) Might be worth asking them what it's like on the ground. I have found it interesting talking to people I know in different countries about what they are doing.

There is definitely one swede or expat living in Sweden who has commented on here, but likewise I can’t think of their name 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Toilet Duck]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think it’s difficult to explain it away as cultural differences when you’ve got no real difference between Italy who went into full nationwide lockdown before anyone else, and Sweden where bars/restaurants schools etc are all still open.

Thing is, bars etc are open, but all reports say they are mostly empty. Footfall in Stockholm is at about 30% of the norm. Most of the social distancing modelling used to decide policy elsewhere projected a 75% reduction in contacts via the measures, Sweden has effectively achieved this by relying on social responsibility. In terms of suppression, they are more or less doing the same as everyone else, just voluntarily. When we (Ireland) asked people not to go to the pub at the start of this, they were still rammed. Mind you, case numbers were very low and nobody was dying yet, it has a way of focusing the mind! The big question will be if "herd immunity" is reached, how long does it last for? Most up to date data suggests that this coronavirus is more like the others that are endemic and in seasonal circulation. Unfortunately, immunity to those lasts less than a year in general, so you can get infected with the same one again next year. SARS/MERS elicited more permanent immunity, and they have died out. It'll go one way or the other (either immunity lasts long and this virus will go away once most people have had it or we have a vaccine, or it will come back every year in seasonal outbreaks and we'll vaccinate at risk populations). Data from Sweden though could be very useful in helping to determine appropriate relaxation of social distancing as part of the exit strategies for everyone. 

[Toilet Duck]

7 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Do we have any Swedish members or anyone living in Sweden. I seem to think we do but can't remember their name (sorry useless with names!!) Might be worth asking them what it's like on the ground. I have found it interesting talking to people I know in different countries about what they are doing.

Think @SwedgeAntilles is there, and he more or less confirmed that things were quiet, but I'm sure he can shed more light on it!

[SwedgeAntilles]

I know it's been referred to in passing a few times but I'm increasingly of a mind that the housing situation in Sweden vs Italy/Spain is a huge factor. 

Unlike in Italy and Spain it's extremely unusual for three generations of the same family to stay under the one room, lots of younger people live alone rather than flat share, so leaving aside events it's a lot more difficult for transmission in day-to-day life. What I think it a real key indicator of that in Sweden is that in Stockholm it's particularly migrant communities (such as Somalis) who have been hit hardest. Two main reasons have been attributed to that 1) Government advice not being in a language they are readily able to understand fully 2) More people living together in tighter conditions.  

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

I know it's been referred to in passing a few times but I'm increasingly of a mind that the housing situation in Sweden vs Italy/Spain is a huge factor. 

Unlike in Italy and Spain it's extremely unusual for three generations of the same family to stay under the one room, lots of younger people live alone rather than flat share, so leaving aside events it's a lot more difficult for transmission in day-to-day life. What I think it a real key indicator of that in Sweden is that in Stockholm it's particularly migrant communities (such as Somalis) who have been hit hardest. Two main reasons have been attributed to that 1) Government advice not being in a language they are readily able to understand fully 2) More people living together in tighter conditions.  

 

I think you can say the same regarding the older generation in both the U.K. and Germany for that matter, very rare for grandparents to live with the family, we just stick them in a home, hence the issues in care homes. Only situation it’s more prevalent in the U.K. is amongst the Asian community. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Thing is, bars etc are open, but all reports say they are mostly empty. Footfall in Stockholm is at about 30% of the norm. Most of the social distancing modelling used to decide policy elsewhere projected a 75% reduction in contacts via the measures, Sweden has effectively achieved this by relying on social responsibility. In terms of suppression, they are more or less doing the same as everyone else, just voluntarily. When we (Ireland) asked people not to go to the pub at the start of this, they were still rammed. Mind you, case numbers were very low and nobody was dying yet, it has a way of focusing the mind! The big question will be if "herd immunity" is reached, how long does it last for? Most up to date data suggests that this coronavirus is more like the others that are endemic and in seasonal circulation. Unfortunately, immunity to those lasts less than a year in general, so you can get infected with the same one again next year. SARS/MERS elicited more permanent immunity, and they have died out. It'll go one way or the other (either immunity lasts long and this virus will go away once most people have had it or we have a vaccine, or it will come back every year in seasonal outbreaks and we'll vaccinate at risk populations). Data from Sweden though could be very useful in helping to determine appropriate relaxation of social distancing as part of the exit strategies for everyone. 

I saw a suggestion on BBC news the other day that it could well become endemic and we just live alongside it the same way we do with flu. For me that begs the question, what do we do? If it’s not going anywhere and will just be part of life then don’t we need to just try and get back to some sort of normally sooner rather than later? Otherwise we’re just delaying what is inevitable anyway.

[SwedgeAntilles]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Think @SwedgeAntilles is there, and he more or less confirmed that things were quiet, but I'm sure he can shed more light on it!

Was posting when this was being discussed 😄

Yes, I'm based in Stockholm. Quick summary of my thoughts in general;

• Working from home/remotely is prevalent (both myself and Mrs Antilles offices have been closed since March and will continue to be so for the next few weeks)
• Public transport is quiet and being avoided
• People are still meeting up but it tends to be outside so they can distance themselves, however it's much quieter than it normally is at this time of year. 
• We've not been to a bar or restaurant since the first weekend in March (which was Mrs Antilles birthday)
• Both of us had very mild symptoms for about 7-9 days but have both fully recovered (no way to tell if it was actually COVID)

All my input is largely anecdotal but I must say that, was we start to see other countries relaxing their lockdowns, that it's become more difficult to disagree with the Swedish approach than I did initially. 

[gigpusher]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I saw a suggestion on BBC news the other day that it could well become endemic and we just live alongside it the same way we do with flu. For me that begs the question, what do we do? If it’s not going anywhere and will just be part of life then don’t we need to just try and get back to some sort of normally sooner rather than later? Otherwise we’re just delaying what is inevitable anyway.

Obviously with flu we have a vaccine that is offered to vulnerable people every year so I think it would be a case of trying to shield those people as best as possible until we can achieve that over here as well. If we could vastly reduce the numbers of people who have the illness and do proper testing going forward then we could start to return to some normality but at the moment our health service would be overwhelmed very quickly if we return to normality too soon. 

That's where to my mind at least the measures New Zealand took seemed so much more sensible. Stop vast numbers of infections quickly and then you can ensure your efforts are on testing those with symptoms and tracing where those who are infected have been. 

[gigpusher]

3 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Was posting when this was being discussed 😄

Yes, I'm based in Stockholm. Quick summary of my thoughts in general;

• Working from home/remotely is prevalent (both myself and Mrs Antilles offices have been closed since March and will continue to be so for the next few weeks)
• Public transport is quiet and being avoided
• People are still meeting up but it tends to be outside so they can distance themselves, however it's much quieter than it normally is at this time of year. 
• We've not been to a bar or restaurant since the first weekend in March (which was Mrs Antilles birthday)
• Both of us had very mild symptoms for about 7-9 days but have both fully recovered (no way to tell if it was actually COVID)

All my input is largely anecdotal but I must say that, was we start to see other countries relaxing their lockdowns, that it's become more difficult to disagree with the Swedish approach than I did initially. 

So effectively you have been doing the same as over here but self-imposed rather than government imposed. Are hospitality industry businesses being helped for the no doubt vast reduction in their business? 

[steviewevie]

How is Sweden doing compared to other scandinavian countries?

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Was posting when this was being discussed 😄

Yes, I'm based in Stockholm. Quick summary of my thoughts in general;

• Working from home/remotely is prevalent (both myself and Mrs Antilles offices have been closed since March and will continue to be so for the next few weeks)
• Public transport is quiet and being avoided
• People are still meeting up but it tends to be outside so they can distance themselves, however it's much quieter than it normally is at this time of year. 
• We've not been to a bar or restaurant since the first weekend in March (which was Mrs Antilles birthday)
• Both of us had very mild symptoms for about 7-9 days but have both fully recovered (no way to tell if it was actually COVID)

All my input is largely anecdotal but I must say that, was we start to see other countries relaxing their lockdowns, that it's become more difficult to disagree with the Swedish approach than I did initially. 

To be fair, if you said you were in Dublin, then it would be almost exactly the same! Except that nothing is open bar supermarkets and pharmacies. The weather is great, so loads of people around me are out walking, talking to friends in wide open spaces (it's odd to see little groups of families standing 6 feet apart everywhere!). Anytime I have ventured out, there's plenty of cars on the road, but I don't see great groups of people together anywhere. Even if restrictions were lifted, I can't see a great rush to get back into enclosed spaces with hoards of people for quite some time. Most people just want to see their families and friends a bit more (I could live without the pub if my daughter could get to see her grandparents). 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I saw a suggestion on BBC news the other day that it could well become endemic and we just live alongside it the same way we do with flu. For me that begs the question, what do we do? If it’s not going anywhere and will just be part of life then don’t we need to just try and get back to some sort of normally sooner rather than later? Otherwise we’re just delaying what is inevitable anyway.

when we get a vaccine, or some other anti viral drug that works, then I'm sure life will return to pretty much normal...until then some restrictions will be in place I guess...which might include places with large public gatherings.

The global economy could be well and truly f*cked for some time though.

[SwedgeAntilles]

7 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

So effectively you have been doing the same as over here but self-imposed rather than government imposed. Are hospitality industry businesses being helped for the no doubt vast reduction in their business? 

I would say so, yes. 

There is government support for companies, yes. To give an example I'm currently working only 40% of my normal hours but am receiving just over 90% of my salary. This is being paid by the state so similar programmes to other countries in lockdown. 

Good summary this morning from the local.se on the current situation here and whether that's likely to change much (spoiler, it's not) 

https://www.thelocal.se/20200420/coronavirus-will-sweden-ever-have-a-total-lockdown/amp?__twitter_impression=true

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by SwedgeAntilles

[Toilet Duck]

18 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I saw a suggestion on BBC news the other day that it could well become endemic and we just live alongside it the same way we do with flu. For me that begs the question, what do we do? If it’s not going anywhere and will just be part of life then don’t we need to just try and get back to some sort of normally sooner rather than later? Otherwise we’re just delaying what is inevitable anyway.

It looks like it will become endemic. At the outset, based on nothing but a hunch I reckoned it would settle into our seasonal viruses and end up with a fatality rate somewhere around seasonal flu. Once we can protect vulnerable populations and we can treat those who develop severe symptoms, then it's something we can live with (and we live with much worse). The measures taken now have been to stop massive rates of infection very quickly (and the knock-on in massive fatalities). There will be a common refrain of "we over-reacted" over the next few weeks and months, but that's easy to say when the death rate has been reduced by an order of magnitude. If we didn't, the refrain would be "we should have locked down". You're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It looks like it will become endemic. At the outset, based on nothing but a hunch I reckoned it would settle into our seasonal viruses and end up with a fatality rate somewhere around seasonal flu. Once we can protect vulnerable populations and we can treat those who develop severe symptoms, then it's something we can live with (and we live with much worse). The measures taken now have been to stop massive rates of infection very quickly (and the knock-on in massive fatalities). There will be a common refrain of "we over-reacted" over the next few weeks and months, but that's easy to say when the death rate has been reduced by an order of magnitude. If we didn't the retain would be "we should have locked down". You're damned if you do and your damned if you don't. 

Yes, I’m guessing if Flu appeared now without years of immunity and a yearly vaccine it would be a pretty serious thing as well. I agree fully about protecting the vulnerable, that and protecting the health service. I’m not an uncaring individual in the slightest, I just try to look at things as objectively as I possibly can, but if it is to become endemic then I can’t escape  the thought that whilst prioritising the needs of the NHS and the vulnerable we need to get back to some sort of normal life as soon as possible. It seems pretty futile to try and hide from something indefinitely, that we may well have to live alongside indefinitely anyway. There is no suggestion we plan to hide from it indefinitely of course, but perhaps some people need to accept it isn’t necessarily going away either.

[Toilet Duck]

9 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

I would say so, yes. 

There is government support for companies, yes. To give an example I'm currently working only 40% of my normal hours but am receiving just over 90% of my salary. This is being paid by the state so similar programmes to other countries in lockdown. 

Good summary this morning from the local.se on the current situation here and whether that's likely to change much (spoiler, it's not) 

https://www.thelocal.se/20200420/coronavirus-will-sweden-ever-have-a-total-lockdown/amp?__twitter_impression=true

 

Interesting read, thanks Swedge! Essentially it looks like the current situation in Sweden is where we will be relaxing to once the current measures are lifted. Add in better testing and contact tracing and (in my view) masks, and it's sustainable. 

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes, I’m guessing if Flu appeared now without years of immunity and a yearly vaccine it would be a pretty serious thing as well. I agree fully about protecting the vulnerable, that and protecting the health service. I’m not an uncaring individual in the slightest, I just try to look at things as objectively as I possibly can, but if it is to become endemic then I can’t escape  the thought that whilst prioritising the needs of the NHS and the vulnerable we need to get back to some sort of normal life as soon as possible. It seems pretty futile to try and hide from something indefinitely, that we may well have to live alongside indefinitely anyway. There is no suggestion we plan to hide from it indefinitely of course, but perhaps some people need to accept it isn’t necessarily going away either.

Striking a balance between some kind of normal and a massive second peak that's worse than the first (huge amounts of the population are still not exposed) is what governments everywhere are grappling with. I don't think it's impossible, I even think that confined spaces can be made safer again with masks, and If I had to wear one to go to a gig, I'd be happy enough (needs a hole for beer though!). 

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes, I’m guessing if Flu appeared now without years of immunity and a yearly vaccine it would be a pretty serious thing as well. 

A new flu strain was actually what most epidemiologists/virologists/public health experts were most worried about. Coronaviruses were on the radar because of SARS/MERS, but flu's propensity to mutate in large jumps means it's always a worry. Maybe the cuts that reduced our preparedness for a flu pandemic will be reversed after this? Who knows, we have short memories!

Edited April 21, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

Striking a balance between some kind of normal and a massive second peak that's worse than the first (huge amounts of the population are still not exposed) is what governments everywhere are grappling with. I don't think it's impossible, I even think that confined spaces can be made safer again with masks, and If I had to wear one to go to a gig, I'd be happy enough (needs a hole for beer though!). 

The thing that worries me as a nation compared to say Sweden is that we’ve shown large swathes won’t listen unless they have to. That said I don’t doubt it will have changed how a lot behave, potentially indefinitely. We certainly seem to be more of a nation of people who if they lets us do it, well do it though. 

[Avalon_Fields]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Interesting read, thanks Swedge! Essentially it looks like the current situation in Sweden is where we will be relaxing to once the current measures are lifted. Add in better testing and contact tracing and (in my view) masks, and it's sustainable. 

I'd agree, sensible measures and we can sustain until such time as a vaccine may come along.

The only really impossible events that I can't see any real solution for many months are major sports, festivals, and probably foreign holidays. 

[Avalon_Fields]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Striking a balance between some kind of normal and a massive second peak that's worse than the first (huge amounts of the population are still not exposed) is what governments everywhere are grappling with. I don't think it's impossible, I even think that confined spaces can be made safer again with masks, and If I had to wear one to go to a gig, I'd be happy enough (needs a hole for beer though!). 

But I understand masks are still unproven (i.e. WHO advice for example), and may give the user a wrong sense of security, and can't get them for the general population until there's more than enough for all carers, etc.

[Crazyfool01]

I wonder what these nightingale hospitals will be used for ... I thought the numbers were starting to drop ... so will they be used specifically for all CV19 patients freeing up the standard hospitals to get back as close to normal service as possible ? or are they just too spaced out ... or the other thought was do they use them for more of the elderly from care homes thus giving the uninfected within them more of a chance .. or do they just get held in reserve for a possible second peak ?

[Avalon_Fields]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The thing that worries me as a nation compared to say Sweden is that we’ve shown large swathes won’t listen unless they have to. That said I don’t doubt it will have changed how a lot behave, potentially indefinitely. We certainly seem to be more of a nation of people who if they lets us do it, well do it though. 

I know it in only my little bubble of a world from where I sit, but everyone around here is 100% social distancing, plenty will cross the road as soon as they see someone on the same side as them.